I could definitely be wrong, no doubt -- and thanks for your generous reply,
@visitingcock . So much "refuting" happens here, but disagreement doesn't have to take that form, and I appreciate your sense of this. I don't think I'm wrong that Boston
individually means more to SC than Paige does to UConn. This may just be the difference between a post and a guard.
Even that is peculiar and needs a little explaining, since I think Paige is clearly a lynchpin player. She's more of an enabler than Boston, especially on offense. Everyone is made better because of her presence. There have also been times when everyone is made 'worse' by Paige's presence, i.e. when they succumb to
Paige Watching. This tended to happen early in the season, and by the end of March, she'd built a unit out of her teammates.
Anyway, that's not exactly Boston's role on SC. She's more of
'the Rock' on which the rest of the team must rely, defensively especially, but also offensively. Take her out of the equation, and I think the rest of the team is reduced to playing more individual D than they can really manage, and the O will suffer as a result too. But you are right, Dawn has put together several stacked recruiting classes. I'm not as enamored of HS AA awards as perhaps I should be, because there can be disappointments there. But in the long run, I think that talent will express itself. Which lends itself to a thought experiment, the very one we've been conducting for UConn this past year. It goes like this:
If you lose Bueckers/Boston mid season, can the team recover? Can the rest of the talent find itself and make an FF-ready team? We managed it last year, though largely because Paige came back just before the tournament. Could SC have done that last season? Without Boston in January through mid February, what could they have accomplished last year? Certainly not the juggernaut season they put together with her. Would the guard play have been up to it -- Cooke Henny, Beal? And the frontcourt -- Cardoso Amihere Saxton? Could they have held it together in that central stretch, only lost a few extra games? Who would have stepped up to lead them?
Henny would have been the primary candidate, in my view, and I like her a lot. But I don't really see her in that role. She had a tremendous game in the NC, but that was so dependent on the post players dominating that I don't think it could have been replicated otherwise. On UConn, it was Evina initially, but then Christyn Azzi and Caroline took over the task. Is there an Evina on SC? A "Mama" E? That's who I don't see absent Boston.
Now flash forward to this season -- we lose Paige before the season starts, which means we don't have to face the disarray of a mid-season reconfiguring of the team. Everyone is prepared to play their roles from the start. On this board, there's lots of optimism (and some muted optimism) that we can make another FF run. But there's also no hope or expectation that Paige will make a grand re-entrance to elevate everyone, which can feel almost claustrophobic. These 10 are who we are, that's it. Now, I suspect that with all those HS AAs, SC would be in a better position given a whole season to adjust. But I'm not sure all the parts exist to build quite as good a team without Boston for the whole season. Try to imagine a FF, or even EE team for SC without Boston and your most promising freshman guard. I know SC fans can do it, just as we do it here. Who would take them down early in March, especially given that they wouldn't be a #1 seed? I'm guessing ND or Louisville or Stanford or even Indiana could pose insuperable hurdles. Not to mention UConn itself. We had a close call against UCF last season. That's the sort thing I'm thinking if.
So yes, I may have overstated the case when I said "
I'd worry they wouldn't even make the Sweet Sixteen." But it's only a worry wrapped in a hypothetical, coated in pessimism sauce.