New AAC ESPN Contract Value Poll

[BFieldHusky]

I could be totally wrong, but the fact that they agreed to a deal in the exclusive period makes me think they did well here. Otherwise, why not at least go out and look if there are other offers out there?

 

[HawkHusky]

Same, I just have a hard time seeing how they get more than six. As fun as the UCF/Memphis/USF/Houston football successes have been - nobody watches them.

2018 AAC football conference controlled games got 26.96% of the viewers of Big 12 conference controlled games. Each Big 12 school (minus Texas) makes $34.8 million in TV $.

2018 AAC football conference controlled games got 39.4% of the viewers of PAC conference controlled games. Each PAC school makes $30.9 million in TV $.

Big 12: 26.96% of $34.8 million is $9.3 million. PAC: 39.4% of $30.9 million is $12.1 million.

TV rating comps say we are worth $9 to $12 million.

 

[Guapo]

ESPN themselves is partially to blame for that. If they're paying more, hopefully their coverage changes too

Coverage change AND better bowl tie-ins. If AAC football games have more prestigious bowl tie-ins on the line, the more people care = more people watch.

 

[Guapo]

2018 AAC football conference controlled games got 26.96% of the viewers of Big 12 conference controlled games. Each Big 12 school (minus Texas) makes $34.8 million in TV $.

2018 AAC football conference controlled games got 39.4% of the viewers of PAC conference controlled games. Each PAC school makes $30.9 million in TV $.

Big 12: 26.96% of $34.8 million is $9.3 million. PAC: 39.4% of $30.9 million is $12.1 million.

TV rating comps say we are worth $9 to $12 million.

Wow. Very impressed. What is your source? No way you just had these stats ready to fire lol

 

[Guapo]

I could be totally wrong, but the fact that they agreed to a deal in the exclusive period makes me think they did well here. Otherwise, why not at least go out and look if there are other offers out there?

Well the glass half empty people would say that there were no other legitimate options out there and ESPN and the conference knew that.

 

[UConn Dan]

is this announcement today?

20 mins

 

[Hoophound]

How the country views the American, UConn and most other programs is entirely determined by ESPN. If they want people to respect the American, they can just tell them they should.

 

[SirHypeAlot]

20 mins

left myself open for that one

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

If it’s less than Big East money (no way IMO) the drop football drum will beat very loudly.

 

[Guapo]

2018 AAC football conference controlled games got 26.96% of the viewers of Big 12 conference controlled games. Each Big 12 school (minus Texas) makes $34.8 million in TV $.

2018 AAC football conference controlled games got 39.4% of the viewers of PAC conference controlled games. Each PAC school makes $30.9 million in TV $.

Big 12: 26.96% of $34.8 million is $9.3 million. PAC: 39.4% of $30.9 million is $12.1 million.

TV rating comps say we are worth $9 to $12 million.

You’d have to think that Aresco probably opens negotiation by asking for full retail based on the above info, so 12 mil. ESPN ain’t paying retail, so they counter with, say, 4-5 mil. I can see them settling at somewhere between 6-8 mil/team.

 

[methodology]

You’d have to think that Aresco probably opens negotiation by asking for full retail based on the above info, so 12 mil. ESPN ain’t paying retail, so they counter with, say, 4-5 mil. I can see them settling at somewhere between 6-8 mil/team.

Aresco would ask for more than $12 if he's a skilled negotiator. He's knows the true value and growth potential and knows ESPN is going to try to keep the number as low as possible. Aresco also knows ESPN needs content so losing the AAC could cause them to scramble to get the content needed to fill all their slots.

I voted for the $4-10 range but based on the comments/ lack of I think they might have hit ther $10 mark or done better

 

[CL82]

I wonder if a grant-of-rights was signed - could explain why Memphis president and Aresco are so happy (from December): American Athletic considers grant-of-rights for schools to sweeten next media rights deal

I saw something Aresco that seemed to indicate that the GOR idea wasn't pursued. Not sure where though.

 

[Guapo]

Aresco would ask for more than $12 if he's a skilled negotiator. He's knows the true value and growth potential and knows ESPN is going to try to keep the number as low as possible. Aresco also knows ESPN needs content so losing the AAC could cause them to scramble to get the content needed to fill all their slots.

I voted for the $4-10 range but based on the comments/ lack of I think they might have hit ther $10 mark or done better

Hey man, I hope you’re right but there’s really no reason for ESPN to overpay unless they truly believe that the AAC is the foundation that they’re going to build ESPN+ upon.

 

[CL82]

I could be totally wrong, but the fact that they agreed to a deal in the exclusive period makes me think they did well here. Otherwise, why not at least go out and look if there are other offers out there?

Agreed. Of course it is possible that saw what happened when the Big East did just that and ESPN ordered a hit on them....

 

[whaler11]

Well the glass half empty people would say that there were no other legitimate options out there and ESPN and the conference knew that.

well has anyone ever named another legitimate option

 

[ConnHuskBask]

While the league was dealt a poor hand, Aresco/AAC's major failure to date was expanding to 12 teams in order to have a conference title game in football when a) the title game $ wasn't going to cover the extra mouths to feed b) the Big12 since made the 12 team requirement void.

I think ESPN has a number for the AAC and that whether we negotiated as a 9 team league or a 12 team league including Tulane, Tulsa and ECU the total amount is probably close to the same. So while Aresco has a chance to make good on his time as commissioner garnering a nice tv deal, those early mistakes are always going to come back to bite us when the per team payouts are lower than what we'd hope.

 

[Guapo]

well has anyone ever named another legitimate option

Hey I wasn’t disagreeing with you!

 

[Guapo]

While the league was dealt a poor hand, Aresco/AAC's major failure to date was expanding to 12 teams in order to have a conference title game in football when a) the title game $ wasn't going to cover the extra mouths to feed b) the Big12 since made the 12 team requirement void.

I think ESPN has a number for the AAC and that whether we negotiated as a 9 team league or a 12 team league including Tulane, Tulsa and ECU the total amount is probably close to the same. So while Aresco has a chance to make good on his time as commissioner garnering a nice tv deal, those early mistakes are always going to come back to bite us when the per team payouts are lower than what we'd hope.

I honestly have no issue with Tulane being in the conference. Tulsa and ECU...yikes.

 

[CL82]

Well the glass half empty people would say that there were no other legitimate options out there and ESPN and the conference knew that.

Again the actual value will be an indicator of whether ESPN values our league as a content generator. Maybe a little bit about whether they care if UConn games end up on Fox.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I honestly have no issue with Tulane being in the conference. Tulsa and ECU...yikes.

I have the exact opposite take.

Tulsa hoops has a little redeeming value making the NCAAT from time to time. ECU Football usually has some redeeming value with good fan support and they get games with Va Tech, UNC, etc. occasionally.

Tulane athletics has literally no redeeming value in success, facilities, or fanbase.

 

[Guapo]

Again the actual value will be an indicator of whether ESPN values our league as a content generator. Maybe a little bit about whether they care if UConn games end up on Fox.

Do we have any indication that Fox or NBC or whomever had any interest?

In my view, this was a two way negotiation. The AAC said to ESPN “you need content; we have content, our content is worth ~14 million~” ESPN said “You need a platform, we have the world’s biggest, most recognizable platform. We recognize the value of your content and you’re welcome to house that content on Stadium or someplace obscure. Or, you can partner with us and grow your brand but, there’s obviously a cost for that.”

 

[CL82]

Do we have any indication that Fox or NBC or whomever had any interest?

In my view, this was a two way negotiation. The AAC said to ESPN “you need content; we have content, our content is worth ~14 million~” ESPN said “You need a platform, we have the world’s biggest, most recognizable platform. We recognize the value of your content and you’re welcome to house that content on Stadium or someplace obscure. Or, you can partner with us and grow your brand but, there’s obviously a cost for that.”

My reference to Fox, was obliquely touching on the fact that a bad media deal for the American would be another factor favoring a UConn move to the New Big East.

 

[Guapo]

I have the exact opposite take.

Tulsa hoops has a little redeeming value making the NCAAT from time to time. ECU Football usually has some redeeming value with good fan support and they get games with Va Tech, UNC, etc. occasionally.

Tulane athletics has literally no redeeming value in success, facilities, or fanbase.

I see where you are coming from with ECU; I still don’t think they’re worth it, but I see your argument. Tulsa to me is just totally worthless. They can win basketball games but still won’t draw flies.

Tulane, on the hand, is one of the only “real schools” in this conference, along with UConn and SMU, where student actually compete to get in and live on campus. Furthermore, it has a rich and proud alumni base and actual sports history (it was a member of the SEC, which is crazy to think about). I believe that as soon as either their basketball or football teams has a whiff of success, that alumni base will rally around them as they do the baseball team.

 

[whaler11]

Do we have any indication that Fox or NBC or whomever had any interest?

In my view, this was a two way negotiation. The AAC said to ESPN “you need content; we have content, our content is worth ~14 million~” ESPN said “You need a platform, we have the world’s biggest, most recognizable platform. We recognize the value of your content and you’re welcome to house that content on Stadium or someplace obscure. Or, you can partner with us and grow your brand but, there’s obviously a cost for that.”

NBC doesn’t have any capacity. They going to put it on NBC Sports Gold? They have no way to monetize it.

Fox has a similar issue - they have 1&2 but little in the way of available capacity and their streaming is just their networks - there isn’t an OTT digitial aspect.

I’d be shocked if there isn’t a huge ESPN+ aspect to the deal. And if you enjoy the mid major bb tournaments, the vast majority of it is going to be on +.

 

[Guapo]

My reference to Fox, was obliquely touching on the fact that a bad media deal for the American would be another factor favoring a UConn move to the New Big East.

I kinda figured that’s what you meant, but I thought it illustrated a point that I wanted to make, which is that the fact that they agreed to terms in this window, to me, is indicative of a deal that makes both sides happy.

I just don’t think ESPN would be happy with a deal that pays the AAC more than 10 million per team. I think some in this thread may be setting themselves up for disappointment when the actual deal is announced.