Nelson's Top 25 before GoT starts

[nelsonmuntz]

Now that we know everyone who has head off to (hopefully) greener pastures, here is my assessment of the top 25. I find that with these preseason rankings done right after the Finals, there is a tendency to just shuffle the current year's Top 25 around, despite many of the teams experiencing huge losses and many of the teams that were outside the top 25 getting pretty much everyone back or having transfers come off redshirt. This is one of those offseasons where a lot of the top 10 teams had huge losses. My rules for ranking:

1) If better than 60% of the scoring and rebounding is coming back, the team is in good shape.

2) Freshman and Sophomores generally show bigger improvements year over year than upperclassmen.

3) Don't count on freshman to have a big impact unless they are Top 10 recruits. There will be good frosh beyond the Top 10 and some stars even, but it is hard to predict and it is as likely to come from #65 as it is from #15. UConn has had a lot of McD AA's over the years, but to this day, the three best players as freshmen in UConn history are Khalid El-Amin, Ray Allen and Doron Sheffer, and only El-Amin was a Top 30 recruit.

4) Top transfers generally show up ready to play. Kromah was an immediate contributor this year. I expect the same from Purvis next year. But transfers that were a bust at their prior school generally continue to be busts at their new school.

Mine:

1) Wisconsin - everyone comes back from a Final Four team that was great all year. Offensively this is the best team I saw all year. Defensively they need to get a little better.

2) UNC - I think losing McAdoo is addition by subtraction. Paige is excellent.

3) Villanova - I really like this team a lot.

4) Kentucky - I know they will be the universal pre-season favorite, but they are not my favorite. There will be chemistry and playing time problems with this team. Basically, every one of the recruits was lied to in order to get them to come, and whatever Calipari is paying them will not be enough to stop the griping. There is so much talent that it might not matter, but Randle and Young were the two best players by far and they are gone.

5) Kansas - huge losses but I liked the supporting cast here.

6) SMU - This ranking feels really high, but the teams below have issues. the only thing SMU was missing was a "go to" scorer, and they have that with Mudlay. Larry Brown coaches circles around most people on gameday, and spanked Ollie twice this year.

7) Wichita State - Early is a huge loss, but pretty much everyone else that really matters comes back and there is some major talent coming in.

8) Arizona - offensive problems don't get better with the loss of Gordon and Johnson, but this is still a good team with a lot of talent.

9) Georgetown - 3 of the top 4 guys return on a team that got significantly better as the season went on, and there is a really good recruiting class coming in.

10) SD State - if Fisher was as good a game coach at Michigan as he is now, he would have 3 rings instead of 1. Thomas is a big loss, but SDSU brings a lot back and the defense will be awesome.

11) Gonzaga - modest losses.

12) Pitt - lose Patterson but otherwise return a lot of talent and Dixon doesn't usually have 2 down years in a row.

13) VCU - returns its best player and a lot of its scoring.

14) UConn - If Brimah was not having shoulder surgery, I would have predicted this to be a top 10 team. Losing Napier, Daniels, Giffey and Kromah is going to hurt, especially on defense. Samuel will step up big, and Purvis will be an immediate contributor and borderline star, but Hamilton will be forced to play out of position at the 4, and UConn will lose some depth unless Omar Calhoun finally recovers from his surgery of a year ago. If Brimah could have worked on his game all summer, I would have predicted him to have a 10 and 8 year next season.

15) Louisville - Smith and Hancock are big losses, but Harrell is going to have a monster season next year.

16) Oklahoma - by a hair over the mass of teams below this.

17) Virginia - will be a solid team, but they benefited from a weak ACC this year and only playing UNC, Syracuse and Duke once each. Bennett is a good coach, but from a talent standpoint, this is not a top program. The ACC will be better next year and I don't expect the schedule to work out as well.

18) Texas - I don't know if he doesn't care anymore or he has gotten dumber, but I think Barnes just sucks now as a coach. Team returns literally every player, so they won't be worse than last year, but it is hard to predict a top 10 finish like everyone else is.

19) Nebraska - good, fun team. Lots of returning talent.

20) Michigan State - huge losses but MSU will never suck.

21) Duke - Jabari Parker was this team. Losing Parker and Hood will be very hard on this team, even with Okafor coming.

22) Colorado - would have been Top 10 if Dinwiddie returned, which he should have. NBA teams don't get real excited about guards with bum wheels. That said, the team played well at season's end and returns a lot of talent.

23) Florida - Donovan is a great coach, but the losses here are enormous. Young, Wilbekin and Prather were the 3 best players on this year's team.

24) Clemson - a bit of a stretch here, but they return a lot, including their leading scorer, and they played well at season's end.

25) Harvard - hard to believe a coach that was as a complete failure at Seton Hall and Michigan is so good at Harvard.

Others:

Oregon - played very well at times but the losses are massive.

Iowa State and Memphis - huge losses

Fire away.

 

[upstater]

All the BE teams listed are ranked too high by 10 spots at least.

 

[champs99and04]

Pitt is way too high. They lose their two best players from a team that was pretty underwhelming next year. Duke at #21 is just baffling. I also think Gonzaga, San Diego State, and Georgetown are too high.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

K.J. McDaniels is gone at Clemson and not returning. Xavier Thames is the departing player at SDSU that you are referring to.

This is just after a really quick read without questioning rankings. Thanks for your efforts though. Posts like this are quite a bit of fun. Like the idea for discussion purposes.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

K.J. McDaniels is gone at Clemson and not returning. Xavier Thames is the departing player at SDSU that you are referring to.

This is just after a really quick read without questioning rankings. Thanks for your efforts though. Posts like this are quite a bit of fun. Like the idea for discussion purposes.

Missed that McDaniels had left. Take them off the list.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Pitt is way too high. They lose their two best players from a team that was pretty underwhelming next year. Duke at #21 is just baffling. I also think Gonzaga, San Diego State, and Georgetown are too high.

For the purposes of rankings I think he is accurate with the Zags. Rankings don't necessarily equate to the best team. The additions of Sabonis, Perkins (who I don't love) and the wildcard is Silas Melson who is way under the radar are solid additions. Melson can really play and dropped 40 in an all star game the other day (granted an all-star game).

2 senior guards in Bell and Pangos with the addition of Wiltjer gives them a lot of experience. They play @ Arizona next year and other than that they could run the table. UCLA on the road will be a win. SO rankings wise he may actually have them to low from where they will be at years end.

As far as whether they can end the season in the Elite 8 or further?? Until Mark Few proves he can win big games in March any doubts are warranted.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Pitt is way too high. They lose their two best players from a team that was pretty underwhelming next year. Duke at #21 is just baffling. I also think Gonzaga, San Diego State, and Georgetown are too high.

Why is Duke baffling at #21? The ACC should be a lot better and Duke never deserved their rankings this year anyway. Jabari Parker was nasty, and he is gone. I can't think of a single player that carried their team as much as Parker did, and that includes Napier. Without Parker, Duke would have lost at least 6 more games. Hood was Duke's second best player, and he is gone too. Unless every Duke recruit is a once in a decade player, they are taking a step back.

Pitt won't have two down years in a row, although I don't think they will be a Top 10 team again anywhere near as often as they used to be.

 

[jleves]

14) UConn - If Brimah was not having shoulder surgery, I would have predicted this to be a top 10 team. <snip> but Hamilton will be forced to play out of position at the 4,


Fire away.

First of all, while I agree that the surgery will hurt in that Brimah will lose most of the off season to work on things like footwork, etc. there is nothing to stop him from strengthening his lower body which will help him a ton. By January/February he should be back in game shape so it's not that big a hit.

Second we have Brimah, Nolan, Facey and the Rock for big men and I wouldn't be a bit surprised another big is added. There's no way Hamilton will be playing primarily as a 4. We could go with three guards and Hamilton, Brimah for stretches, but it won't be a primary set. It just makes way more sense to get Facey and Lubin. If they aren't up to snuff we aren't going very far and it makes sense to develop them for the future. If they are snuff like, we could go places. But in either case, between them and a combo of Brimah Nolan, they get 35+ minutes at the 4 spot.

You are like Chief and Clyde on this one. Give up the idea he's going to be playing major or even many minutes as a power forward. It doesn't make any sense.

That being said, 14 sounds about right with DD gone.

I like our coach and our chances with him. Should be another fun year.

 

[Strummer]

I don't know squat about any of this, so I won't nit - pick your list.

I'll only say - thank you for preparing it and sharing - I found it very interesting.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

All the BE teams listed are ranked too high by 10 spots at least.

You mean both of them? Why?

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Its a thought provoking thread for the off season. Especially coming off a National Championship season. I will give you my top 25 this summer!

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Wisky loses Brust (12.8 pts & 4.5 rebs).

 

[aburks41]

Hamilton will probably see less than 3 minutes per game at the 4. We have Facey and Lubin who will most likely take up 95% of the time at the 4 unless we go to the small lineup

 

[tzznandrew]

Other than your insistence on Hamilton playing the 4 (I don't think he'll see time there), I think this is a nice list, Nelson. It's easy to nitpick, and I do think you have some teams too high (UNC, Villanova, Pitt, Clemson may all be a little too high, Georgetown a lot), and some teams to low (Virginia jumps out, but I get your logic). But this is a hard list to do, and this is as good as any. And I also think you are right about UK.

 

[Huskyforlife]

If Hamilton starts at the four it's cause facey and Lubin suck, which I doubt will be the case.

 

[champs99and04]

Why is Duke baffling at #21? The ACC should be a lot better and Duke never deserved their rankings this year anyway. Jabari Parker was nasty, and he is gone. I can't think of a single player that carried their team as much as Parker did, and that includes Napier. Without Parker, Duke would have lost at least 6 more games. Hood was Duke's second best player, and he is gone too. Unless every Duke recruit is a once in a decade player, they are taking a step back.

Pitt won't have two down years in a row, although I don't think they will be a Top 10 team again anywhere near as often as they used to be.

You're over-thinking this. Jahil Okafor is the #1 recruit in the country, and, by all accounts, an incredible talent. He's tall, athletic, and skilled. If he's not one of the best big men in the country next season, I'll be surprised. Tyus Jones is, if not the best point guard in this class, the second best. He's very reminiscent of Kyrie Irving. He isn't as compelling an NBA prospect as somebody like Mudiay because his measurable's are considerably less enticing, but in terms of court vision, skill level, and basketball IQ, he has it all. He and Jahil also have something of a rapport from having played together before. Aside from those two, Justice Wislow and Grayson Allen are five stars who figure to contribute from day one. It's just an absolutely loaded class - one that would rival some of Calipari's best - that becomes even more dangerous when you consider what Duke returns.

And, for as good as Parker and Hood were, they were mostly one-way players who contributed to Duke's defensive problems as much as anybody. The two of them also completely shot Duke out of the game against Mercer in the NCAA Tournament when the lights were on - they combined to shoot 6 of 24 from the field with 7 turnovers. Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon, meanwhile - two highly touted prospects out of high school who had disappointing seasons but figure to turn it around next year - combined for 43 points in that game on 14 of 26 shooting. Granted, it's a one game sample, and doesn't excuse their mediocre years, but I think those two games are indicative of their ability to contribute to a championship-level team. Sulaimon was extremely productive as a freshman and Cook has been steady if unspectacular his whole career. They also return Amile Jefferson, a talented four man who averaged 7 and 7 in only 22 minutes last season.

I hate to defend Duke, but there is a ridiculous amount of talent on this roster. And Coach K, while overrated at this point in his career, can still get it done with the right roster.

As for Pitt, it's interesting that you say they won't have two down years in a row. Isn't that what just happened? In 2012, they were an eight seed that was bounced by Wichita State in the first round. In 2013, they were a nine seed that got drilled by Florida in the second round. They were a team with a glaring talent void last season, and that was before their two best players graduated.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I explain how I incorporate recruits into my predictions in #3 above. For all the hype of the "Year of the Freshman", 3 of the top freshmen, Wiggins, Parker and Ennis, had a habit of picking up bad losses during the year, and all 3 flamed out early despite playing on relatively good teams. Kentucky was the exception, and I would argue that if the WSU/Kentucky game was officiated more fairly, Kentucky would not have made it out of the second round. There are a lot of very talented college players that have worked hard for years to be as good as they are. I am sure Okafor is good, but so are a lot of other players, and those other players have had college coaching for multiple years.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Other than your insistence on Hamilton playing the 4 (I don't think he'll see time there), I think this is a nice list, Nelson. It's easy to nitpick, and I do think you have some teams too high (UNC, Villanova, Pitt, Clemson may all be a little too high, Georgetown a lot), and some teams to low (Virginia jumps out, but I get your logic). But this is a hard list to do, and this is as good as any. And I also think you are right about UK.

Ollie is going to play his 5 best players sometimes. Coaches tend to do that. Ollie played a fair amount of Napier, Boat, Tsam, Giffey and Daniels in the Tournament. Calhoun used to play a lot of Donyell, Donny, Scheffer, Ollie and Ray. There have been plenty of UConn teams where there was one big guy, 3 guards and a SF. UConn has plenty of talent at guard, so there are virtually no minutes there unless Ollie wants to bench Purvis or TSam.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If Hamilton starts at the four it's cause facey and Lubin suck, which I doubt will be the case.

Those aren't the two choices, although I don't expect to see a lot of Lubin.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I thought my most controversial pick would be SMU at 6.

 

[Huskyforlife]

I thought my most controversial pick would be SMU at 6.

It's an interesting choice, but on a Uconn board people we be distracted with whatever you say about then the most.

 

[babysheep]

No problems with 14 without DD, but I will never understand how so many people are so compelled to rank Gonzaga so highly in the preseason every. single. year. They're Diet $hittsburgh at best.

 

[Jerry1714]

Gtown is way way to high.

They were awful last year, they lost 6 of their last 9 including a loss to DePaul, so not sure how they improved greatly at the end of the year.

They are not a top 25 team let alone top 10.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Gtown is way way to high.

They were awful last year, they lost 6 of their last 9 including a loss to DePaul, so not sure how they improved greatly at the end of the year.

They are not a top 25 team let alone top 10.

They beat Michigan State and Creighton in the last month or so. They get a lot of talent back and have a great recruiting class coming in. It is interesting how sometimes recruiting classes matter and sometimes they don't with people.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I think #14 is a little optimistic for us. We're losing 4 of our best 5/6 players from a team that didn't reach a ranking as high as #14 in the calendar year 2014 until April.

We're bringing in very talented replacements at the 2 and 3, and should see significant improvement at the 5, but that's an awful lot of production and leadership to turn over. We'll have 3 brand new starters, and the power forward position could be a black hole. A lot of the balance we had with a highly-skilled DD at the 4 will be lost; it will be easier to key on and slow down our backcourt.

I'm struggling to think of a comparable season that this upcoming one is analogous to. Maybe 2010, with better leadership? Or 2005, minus the frontcourt talent?

I think, similarly to this past season, we start around #18-23 and kind of oscillate around that mark. If the team really gels, and either Facey or Lubin surprises me, we could be top 10 come March.