Nelson's Top 25 before GoT starts

[Jerry1714]

They beat Michigan State and Creighton in the last month or so. They get a lot of talent back and have a great recruiting class coming in. It is interesting how sometimes recruiting classes matter and sometimes they don't with people.

So it matters for G'town but it does not for Duke?

If recruiting class is that important to you, Duke ranking at 21 is an absolute joke.

 

[bobbygt]

Thanks for the list!

Just some comments:

• I can't see putting Georgetown anywhere near the top ten (losing to Depaul in the first round of the BET is not an example of 'getting better as the season went on').
• Put Louisville and Duke in the top ten and take out Georgetown and SMU. Louisville has been stockpiling talent and see champs99and04's post about Duke.
• As much as I'd love to see Syracuse out of the top 25, there's no way I can put teams like Nebraska, Colorado, Harvard, Oklahoma, Pitt ahead of Syracuse. Will Syracuse make noise in March? Not likely, but they are still Syracuse- a really good regular season team and they've been getting good recruits.
• I don't think Nova will be elite- they could be a top ten team simply for the fact that they will probably roll through another average Big East, but they don't strike me as a team that has potential to improve significantly.
  
• SMU-It's still SMU we're talking about here. Could they be the new SDSU while Larry Brown is there? Perhaps- which means they could challenge for the conference crown, lose only 4-6 games, but still get bounced fairly early in the tournament. If we're talking about the top 25, they are there but I don't see them as a serious threat come March (which is the same way I feel about Nova).

 

[tzznandrew]

[ ]SMU-It's still SMU we're talking about here. Could they be the new SDSU while Larry Brown is there? Perhaps- which means they could challenge for the conference crown, lose only 4-6 games, but still get bounced fairly early in the tournament. If we're talking about the top 25, they are there but I don't see them as a serious threat come March (which is the same way I feel about Nova).

Mudiay is better than any recruit San Diego State has ever brought in. He has the potential to impact SMU in a manner similar to how one and done PG recruits helped Calipari at Memphis. And Larry Brown is a much better coach than Calipari.

 

[bobbygt]

Mudiay is better than any recruit San Diego State has ever brought in. He has the potential to impact SMU in a manner similar to how one and done PG recruits helped Calipari at Memphis. And Larry Brown is a much better coach than Calipari.

I've heard that he's good- but is he better than Big Hands?

I'll wait to see how he plays, runs the team, and fits in before I put SMU in the top ten.

 

[tzznandrew]

I've heard that he's good- but is he better than Big Hands?

I'll wait to see how he plays, runs the team, and fits in before I put SMU in the top ten.

As a recruit? Yes. As a player? Yet to be determined.

 

[Jerry1714]

I've heard that he's good- but is he better than Big Hands?

I'll wait to see how he plays, runs the team, and fits in before I put SMU in the top ten.

In my opinion Mudiay is the best college and NBA prospect in this class

 

[bobbygt]

As a recruit? Yes. As a player? Yet to be determined.

Well, sure, he's a better recruit.

My comparison between SDSU and SMU was purely based on the fact that neither program has any significant history in mbb, yet both have seen some resurgence due to the hiring of good, veteran coaches

Fisher has been reeling in some quality recruits as well and they've been a top 25 team for 4 years now.

I'm not disputing Mudiay's talent, and SMU could be as good as most people are predicting (I've seen predictions that they'll win the AAC), but as I've mentioned- SMU has little to no history of winning and one super recruit does not mean anything yet.

I think comparing SMU to SDSU was pretty generous. I also wonder how much longer Brown will be coaching.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Well, sure, he's a better recruit.

My comparison between SDSU and SMU was purely based on the fact that neither program has any significant history in mbb, yet both have seen some resurgence due to the hiring of good, veteran coaches

Fisher has been reeling in some quality recruits as well and they've been a top 25 team for 4 years now.

I'm not disputing Mudiay's talent, and SMU could be as good as most people are predicting (I've seen predictions that they'll win the AAC), but as I've mentioned- SMU has little to no history of winning and one super recruit does not mean anything yet.

I think comparing SMU to SDSU was pretty generous. I also wonder how much longer Brown will be coaching.

SMU's history doesn't matter with Larry Brown as coach. He is a wizard or something, and I don't mean that figuratively. He may be casting actual spells. He spanks Ollie twice, basically just completely out-coaching Ollie in both games, right before Ollie heads to a Tournament where Ollie takes down Jay Wright, the Mayor, Izzo, Donovan and Squid in succession. I know the transitive property doesn't work with coaching, but when you think about what Brown did to Ollie with what Ollie did to some excellent coaches, you see why Brown is considered one of the best coaches in NBA history.

SMU should have gone to the dance this year. Brown gets everyone that matters back and now adds a stud athlete to the mix. Maybe 6 is too high, but I think SMU is the team to beat in the AAC and is certainly a Top 10 team for next year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So it matters for G'town but it does not for Duke?

If recruiting class is that important to you, Duke ranking at 21 is an absolute joke.

Duke got bounced by Mercer just a few games after getting beat by an awful Wake Forest team, then loses the player I think should be #1 in the draft, along with another first rounder. If any other name was on the front of their jerseys, a 9 loss team that made a first round exit and had two losses like that at year end, that was also losing a top draft pick and another first rounder, would be out of the Top 25 altogether.

 

[Jerry1714]

Duke got bounced by Mercer just a few games after getting beat by an awful Wake Forest team, then loses the player I think should be #1 in the draft, along with another first rounder. If any other name was on the front of their jerseys, a 9 loss team that made a first round exit and had two losses like that at year end, that was also losing a top draft pick and another first rounder, would be out of the Top 25 altogether.

Still makes no sense in relation to G'town. None.

What did G'town do to warrant being that high?

Duke's remaining players are a lot better, as are their recruits. Not saying Duke should be in the Top 10, but Gtown should not be in the Top 25.

 

[James]

Duke got bounced by Mercer just a few games after getting beat by an awful Wake Forest team, then loses the player I think should be #1 in the draft, along with another first rounder. If any other name was on the front of their jerseys, a 9 loss team that made a first round exit and had two losses like that at year end, that was also losing a top draft pick and another first rounder, would be out of the Top 25 altogether.

Okafor is that good Nelson . coach k had to play Parker at the 5 most of the year. Also he can replace Cooke at the 1 with tyus jones.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Thanks for the list!

Just some comments:

• 
  [ ]I can't see putting Georgetown anywhere near the top ten (losing to Depaul in the first round of the BET is not an example of 'getting better as the season went on').
  [ ]Put Louisville and Duke in the top ten and take out Georgetown and SMU. Louisville has been stockpiling talent and see champs99and04's post about Duke.
  [ ]As much as I'd love to see Syracuse out of the top 25, there's no way I can put teams like Nebraska, Colorado, Harvard, Oklahoma, Pitt ahead of Syracuse. Will Syracuse make noise in March? Not likely, but they are still Syracuse- a really good regular season team and they've been getting good recruits.
  [ ]I don't think Nova will be elite- they could be a top ten team simply for the fact that they will probably roll through another average Big East, but they don't strike me as a team that has potential to improve significantly.
  
  [ ]SMU-It's still SMU we're talking about here. Could they be the new SDSU while Larry Brown is there? Perhaps- which means they could challenge for the conference crown, lose only 4-6 games, but still get bounced fairly early in the tournament. If we're talking about the top 25, they are there but I don't see them as a serious threat come March (which is the same way I feel about Nova).

I am getting tired of arguing Georgetown and Villanova. If you have something specific, great, otherwise I get that you don't like the Big East because they don't play football.

When does SDSU flame out early. Sure looked like they made the Sweet 16 this year.

Louisville lost a 3 year starter at guard in Russ Smith, together with a major scorer and do everything guy in Hancock. They also lose Van Treese who I thought was a stiff but was their #2 rebounder. Other than Louisville's dominance of UConn, their resume was not that impressive last year. Split with Memphis and Cincinnati, and beat SMU twice. Good, not great stuff. The key returning players, Jones, Harrell and Blacksheer, are juniors, and you don't usually see as big a jump between junior and senior year as you see in earlier summers. Louisville is going to be good, and Top 10 is definitely possible, but I am sticking by my ranking for the Cardinals.

As usual, Boeheim refused to use his bench this year so it is hard to tell what is coming out of there next year. That said, of the 4 players that were getting the lion's share of the minutes in games that mattered, 3 of them are gone, as is a good backup in Moussa Keita. Dujuan Coleman's career may be finished unless I missed something. I don't know what happened to BJ Johnson, but he seems to be gone. Rakeem Christmas is decent, but not a star by any means. Cooney is Syracuse's primary offensive weapon. Think about that.

A team that was fading badly down the stretch loses 65% of its scoring and about 60% of its minutes played. I am sure Roberson or some of the freshman may be good, but there is no way to make this a Top 30 team next year without projecting one of the recruits to be a star.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Still makes no sense in relation to G'town. None.

What did G'town do to warrant being that high?

Duke's remaining players are a lot better, as are their recruits. Not saying Duke should be in the Top 10, but Gtown should not be in the Top 25.

I don't follow the logic that you don't like Georgetown therefore Duke is better than #21.

Unfortunately I have to watch a lot of Duke basketball because ESPN insists on showing every game. Duke has a lot of stiffs on the team. I don't care what they were ranked in high school. Duke is a good team next year, nothing more.

Josh Smith going ineligible was a big hit for Georgetown this season. JTIII said last week that he expects Smith to be ready to play next year. Starks is a loss, but Bowen and Lubick would have been nothing more than backups if Smith was eligible. The recruiting class coming in is one of the best GTown has gotten in years.

 

[Jerry1714]

I don't follow the logic that you don't like Georgetown therefore Duke is better than #21.

Unfortunately I have to watch a lot of Duke basketball because ESPN insists on showing every game. Duke has a lot of stiffs on the team. I don't care what they were ranked in high school. Duke is a good team next year, nothing more.

Josh Smith going ineligible was a big hit for Georgetown this season. JTIII said last week that he expects Smith to be ready to play next year. Starks is a loss, but Bowen and Lubick would have been nothing more than backups if Smith was eligible. The recruiting class coming in is one of the best GTown has gotten in years.

The point is you have Gtown so high because of their recruiting class, but rank Duke considerably lower even though their class is a lot better.

You argue that freshman have little impact so thats why Duke is low, but argue Gtown has a great class so thats why they are ranked high.

You argue Duke was overrated since they lost in the first round and to Wake, yet Gtown improved at the end of the year even though they lost to Depaul and 6 of their last 9

Do you see a theme of contradiction here?

As I said Duke's remaining players are a lot better, as are their recruits.

 

[breezy]

How does this list compare with your top 25 now that you've seen GoT?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

How does this list compare with your top 25 now that you've seen GoT?

I am going to put together a list of the Top 25 most messed up s*** that has happened on Game of Thrones. Craster's Keep last night is on the list. Margaery exuding sex at an early teen boy is also on the list. Jaime forcing himself on his sister on top of their dead son that was born of incest last week is probably #1.

 

[bobbygt]

I am getting tired of arguing Georgetown and Villanova. If you have something specific, great, otherwise I get that you don't like the Big East because they don't play football.

When does SDSU flame out early. Sure looked like they made the Sweet 16 this year.

Louisville lost a 3 year starter at guard in Russ Smith, together with a major scorer and do everything guy in Hancock. They also lose Van Treese who I thought was a stiff but was their #2 rebounder. Other than Louisville's dominance of UConn, their resume was not that impressive last year. Split with Memphis and Cincinnati, and beat SMU twice. Good, not great stuff. The key returning players, Jones, Harrell and Blacksheer, are juniors, and you don't usually see as big a jump between junior and senior year as you see in earlier summers. Louisville is going to be good, and Top 10 is definitely possible, but I am sticking by my ranking for the Cardinals.

As usual, Boeheim refused to use his bench this year so it is hard to tell what is coming out of there next year. That said, of the 4 players that were getting the lion's share of the minutes in games that mattered, 3 of them are gone, as is a good backup in Moussa Keita. Dujuan Coleman's career may be finished unless I missed something. I don't know what happened to BJ Johnson, but he seems to be gone. Rakeem Christmas is decent, but not a star by any means. Cooney is Syracuse's primary offensive weapon. Think about that.

A team that was fading badly down the stretch loses 65% of its scoring and about 60% of its minutes played. I am sure Roberson or some of the freshman may be good, but there is no way to make this a Top 30 team next year without projecting one of the recruits to be a star.

You started the thread and people are responding. I don't really see any mention of Villanova by anyone, so why are you tired of talking about them? I wasn't very impressed with them this year and they lose arguably their best player.

That's why I don't like Villanova and I mentioned that Georgetown losing to Depaul in the 1st game of the BET as a reason not to be high on them.

Finally, what does football have to do with anything? I'm not high on the Big East because I don't see any elite teams there. How did the Big East do this year and what makes you think they'll be better?

As for Louisville, they return 3 starters and 4 of their top 6. They have good recruits coming in and Pitino's record speaks for itself while he's every bit the college coach that Larry Brown is.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The point is you have Gtown so high because of their recruiting class, but rank Duke considerably lower even though their class is a lot better.

You argue that freshman have little impact so thats why Duke is low, but argue Gtown has a great class so thats why they are ranked high.

You argue Duke was overrated since they lost in the first round and to Wake, yet Gtown improved at the end of the year even though they lost to Depaul and 6 of their last 9

Do you see a theme of contradiction here?

As I said Duke's remaining players are a lot better, as are their recruits.

Duke vs. Georgetown are not the two choices, for starters.

I do not think Duke's players without Parker are better, and maybe Okafor is the greatest player in the history of players and maybe he isn't. Georgetown has also had two transfers who were pretty well respected that left for playing time, which is a strong signal on how good the Hoyas will be next year. One of them was a grad transfer that went to a good Nebraska team to get playing time that he couldn't get at Georgetown.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You started the thread and people are responding. I don't really see any mention of Villanova by anyone, so why are you tired of talking about them? I wasn't very impressed with them this year and they lose arguably their best player.

That's why I don't like Villanova and I mentioned that Georgetown losing to Depaul in the 1st game of the BET as a reason not to be high on them.

Finally, what does football have to do with anything? I'm not high on the Big East because I don't see any elite teams there. How did the Big East do this year and what makes you think they'll be better?

As for Louisville, they return 3 starters and 4 of their top 6. They have good recruits coming in and Pitino's record speaks for itself while he's every bit the college coach that Larry Brown is.

The Big East finished 4th in the RPI in what was clearly a transition year for many of the schools in the league. The ACC sent 1 team to the Sweet 16 and finished behind the Big East in RPI. Does that mean Duke and UNC will suck next year? Of course not.

Villanova was just a good team that gets most of the key players back.

Louisville's 3 losses are big losses, and I don't see Blacksheer or Jones making a big jump next year. I think Harrell will have a monster year, which is why I ranked Louisville pretty high. Louisville, with all that talent they had this year got a 4 seed and went out in the Sweet 16. They played a light schedule and their claim to fame was dominating UConn. There was not much else to point to. I don't see how Louisville gets better next year in a tougher conference with a less experienced team

 

[PAHusky]

I think #14 is a little optimistic for us. We're losing 4 of our best 5/6 players from a team that didn't reach a ranking as high as #14 in the calendar year 2014 until April.

We're bringing in very talented replacements at the 2 and 3, and should see significant improvement at the 5, but that's an awful lot of production and leadership to turn over. We'll have 3 brand new starters, and the power forward position could be a black hole. A lot of the balance we had with a highly-skilled DD at the 4 will be lost; it will be easier to key on and slow down our backcourt.

I'm struggling to think of a comparable season that this upcoming one is analogous to. Maybe 2010, with better leadership? Or 2005, minus the frontcourt talent?

I think, similarly to this past season, we start around #18-23 and kind of oscillate around that mark. If the team really gels, and either Facey or Lubin surprises me, we could be top 10 come March.

I know this might seem blasphemous on this board but I think the most comparable season for next year is actually this year's Louisville team. Coming off of a national championship. Lose a fantastic veteran guard and a key big man to the draft. Bring back an incredibly talented but allegedly inconsistent guard who played second fiddle to the guard who got drafted but has the expectation of leading the team the following year. Nice, developing talent in the frontcourt. Highly touted recruits coming in from both high school and junior college. Good coach. We're lucky that we won't have the same initial expectations as LVille did this past year but in my mind they're probably the most analogous to us next year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If Brimah was not going to miss the entire offseason in rehab, i would rate UConn higher. I think Brimah could be a huge talent for UConn, better that Thabeet even. But missing a summer of workouts will not make him better.

 

[Jerry1714]

Duke vs. Georgetown are not the two choices, for starters.

I do not think Duke's players without Parker are better, and maybe Okafor is the greatest player in the history of players and maybe he isn't. Georgetown has also had two transfers who were pretty well respected that left for playing time, which is a strong signal on how good the Hoyas will be next year. One of them was a grad transfer that went to a good Nebraska team to get playing time that he couldn't get at Georgetown.

ESPN rankings:

48. Georgetown Hoyas

Gone: Markel Starks, Nate Lubick, Moses Ayegba, Stephen Domingo

Returning: D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Joshua Smith, Jabril Trawick, Mikael Hopkins, Reggie Cameron, Aaron Bowen

Coming in: PF Isaac Copeland (ESPN No. 16), SF L.J. Peak (ESPN No. 31), PFPaul White (ESPN No. 34), PG Tre Campbell

Key Riser: Jabril Trawick -- He had a solid season as a junior, averaging 9.1 points per game. However, look for him to become more of a focal point of the offense with Starks gone.

Analysis: The Hoyas struggled, finishing 8-10 in the new Big East, and will lose their point guard in Starks and also a veteran big man in Lubick, who started for much of his time at Georgetown. However, John Thompson III returns his leading scorer in Smith-Rivera, also brings back Trawick and hopes to have Smith, who was academically ineligble for the second half of the season, back in the fold. He'll also bring in a talented recruiting class that features three players all ranked in the Top 35 nationally.

Summer Buzz: The Hoyas have a verbal from local power forward Marcus Derrickson, but still have three more scholarships in the class. They are trying for heralded big men Ivan Rabb and Diamond Stone, as well as Chance Comanche and wings Dwayne Bacon, Joshua Reaves and P.J. Dozier.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

ESPN rankings:

48. Georgetown Hoyas

Gone: Markel Starks, Nate Lubick, Moses Ayegba, Stephen Domingo

Returning: D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Joshua Smith, Jabril Trawick, Mikael Hopkins, Reggie Cameron, Aaron Bowen

Coming in: PF Isaac Copeland (ESPN No. 16), SF L.J. Peak (ESPN No. 31), PFPaul White (ESPN No. 34), PG Tre Campbell

Key Riser: Jabril Trawick -- He had a solid season as a junior, averaging 9.1 points per game. However, look for him to become more of a focal point of the offense with Starks gone.

Analysis: The Hoyas struggled, finishing 8-10 in the new Big East, and will lose their point guard in Starks and also a veteran big man in Lubick, who started for much of his time at Georgetown. However, John Thompson III returns his leading scorer in Smith-Rivera, also brings back Trawick and hopes to have Smith, who was academically ineligble for the second half of the season, back in the fold. He'll also bring in a talented recruiting class that features three players all ranked in the Top 35 nationally.

Summer Buzz: The Hoyas have a verbal from local power forward Marcus Derrickson, but still have three more scholarships in the class. They are trying for heralded big men Ivan Rabb and Diamond Stone, as well as Chance Comanche and wings Dwayne Bacon, Joshua Reaves and P.J. Dozier.

ESPN hates the Big East and AAC. It hates the Big East for having the temerity to go to another network. It just hates the AAC.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I cancelled ESPN Insider because it is worthless. ESPN, and the rest of them, have a tendency to simply shuffle the end of year Top 25 with these "way too early" preseason Top 25's. I strongly suspect that by October, teams like Syracuse will be off the list while teams like Georgetown will be on them. I think Donovan is an amazing coach, but Florida's losses are enormous. There is no way they are a Top 10 team like Brennan has them.

 

[Jerry1714]

ESPN hates the Big East and AAC. It hates the Big East for having the temerity to go to another network. It just hates the AAC.

Sure, Gtown is 49, not 9, because ESPN hates them. Makes sense.

What about CBS:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...15-preseason-top-25-and-one-national-rankings

Or SI:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/co...20140410/top-25-college-basketball-2014-2015/

Hate to? Big conspiracy against the BE (who fell on their face in the NCAA tournament)?