Nelson's Top 25 before GoT starts

[nelsonmuntz]

If Hamilton starts or sees major minutes at the "4"...the team better shoot 65% from the field or we are going to get beat by 20 - 25 every night. Hamilton weighs about 17 pounds....maybe 18.5. He is a natural 2/3 type. Quick, sleak, good range, decent handle.

I don't know what this obsession is with the sky is falling if Hamilton is checking a 4 on defense. Ollie, like Calhoun before him, will play lineups that include his 5 best players, no matter what their position. To me, that means you will see some Boat, Purvis, TSam, Hamilton and Brimah. No biggie.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

I don't know what this obsession is with the sky is falling if Hamilton is checking a 4 on defense. Ollie, like Calhoun before him, will play lineups that include his 5 best players, no matter what their position. To me, that means you will see some Boat, Purvis, TSam, Hamilton and Brimah. No biggie.

I missed the part where I hinted the sky is falling. I will re-read what I typed earlier.

In KO I Trust. If he thinks playing a 6'7" slasher/shooter who weighs 170 lbs on a fat day is a good idea, so be it. I just doubt that happens. Not based on my basketball knowledge or my "eye test". I believe it because I stopped main-lining heroin back in the late 60s. Again, if KO and the staff thinks it works....cool with me.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Bump. I am sticking by my ranking for the most part. Clemson stays off, replacing them with Utah. I am dropping SMU about 14 slots to 20 because Mudiay is gone. It feels like the ACC will be a lot of bubble teams this year, because I think the league will be good but other than the teams previously mentioned, i don't see anyone sticking out.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Bump. I am sticking by my ranking for the most part. Clemson stays off, replacing them with Utah. I am dropping SMU about 14 slots to 20 because Mudiay is gone. It feels like the ACC will be a lot of bubble teams this year, because I think the league will be good but other than the teams previously mentioned, i don't see anyone sticking out.

IF Beard and/or Durham can allow Ky Madden to play off the ball for stretches Arkansas is going to be a big time sleeper this year. They beat Kentucky twice last year. Qualls, Madden & Portis are a very nice threesome. Anderson though is no Kevin Ollie. If Ollie were coaching this Arkansas team they could be scary good this year. Arkansas @ Iowa State early will be an interesting game!

 

[Danzz]

Other than your insistence on Hamilton playing the 4 (I don't think he'll see time there), I think this is a nice list, Nelson. It's easy to nitpick, and I do think you have some teams too high (UNC, Villanova, Pitt, Clemson may all be a little too high, Georgetown a lot), and some teams to low (Virginia jumps out, but I get your logic). But this is a hard list to do, and this is as good as any. And I also think you are right about UK.

We'll see Purvis at the 4 before Hamilton and we won't see much of him at the 4 either.
The big question mark for us is scoring. We lost a lot and will have to make up for it with improved returning players and new guys. Nolan, Facey and Brimah will have to contribute points or KO will be going with a 3 guard lineup a more than he wants to. Whatever happens, this is going to be one hell of a defensive team.

 

[UofMemphis]

Bump. I am sticking by my ranking for the most part. Clemson stays off, replacing them with Utah. I am dropping SMU about 14 slots to 20 because Mudiay is gone. It feels like the ACC will be a lot of bubble teams this year, because I think the league will be good but other than the teams previously mentioned, i don't see anyone sticking out.

I like seeing Memphis fly under the radar. It seems recently we get rated high, and drop fast after our first L. In your first predictions you said "Iowa State and Memphis - huge losses" and this seems to be what folks are thinking about Memphis...but with Austin Nichols, Shaq Goodwin, Nick King, Kuran Iverson, Pookie Powell...and adding guys like Kedren Johnson, Calvin Godfrey, Trahson Burrell, and Dom Magee...Memphis will have lots of talent.

I still have Memphis finishing third behind UConn and SMU...just ahead of Cincy and Tulsa.

 

[intlzncster]

I hate you for bringing this thread back. I saw the title and got excited that GoT was inexplicably starting up for the 5th season.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

I like seeing Memphis fly under the radar. It seems recently we get rated high, and drop fast after our first L. In your first predictions you said "Iowa State and Memphis - huge losses" and this seems to be what folks are thinking about Memphis...but with Austin Nichols, Shaq Goodwin, Nick King, Kuran Iverson, Pookie Powell...and adding guys like Kedren Johnson, Calvin Godfrey, Trahson Burrell, and Dom Magee...Memphis will have lots of talent.

I still have Memphis finishing third behind UConn and SMU...just ahead of Cincy and Tulsa.

Tulsa is a team to watch in the American. They will prolly start 5 Juniors. This is a good team that lost to UCLA in the 1st round last year. The 2015-16 version could be a great sleeper pick to make a very deep run in March.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Tulsa is a team to watch in the American. They will prolly start 5 Juniors. This is a good team that lost to UCLA in the 1st round last year. The 2015-16 version could be a great sleeper pick to make a very deep run in March.

Tulsa tore up a bad CUSA after starting 1-6. I think even AAC competition will be too much for them.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Tulsa tore up a bad CUSA after starting 1-6. I think even AAC competition will be too much for them.

Statistically Tulsa was ranked #30 in defensive efficiency per Kenpom. That is a pretty good starting point to give them some respect. Top 50 in defensive turnover %. I like those #'s. Good defense should be able to make up for some of their shooting shortcomings. IF Tulsa can crack the top 100 in offensive efficiency next year with a roster comprising of NINE Juniors I expect them to make the tourney out of the AAC. They may not even have to reach that goal. My point is next year (2015-16) they could be very dangerous despite the Haith haterz chiming in. Any roster with NINE seniors with tournament experience is a true wildcard.

 

[Walker11]

Statistically Tulsa was ranked #30 in defensive efficiency per Kenpom. That is a pretty good starting point to give them some respect. Top 50 in defensive turnover %. I like those #'s. Good defense should be able to make up for some of their shooting shortcomings. IF Tulsa can crack the top 100 in offensive efficiency next year with a roster comprising of NINE Juniors I expect them to make the tourney out of the AAC. They may not even have to reach that goal. My point is next year (2015-16) they could be very dangerous despite the Haith haterz chiming in. Any roster with NINE seniors with tournament experience is a true wildcard.

If there is one thing Haith does well, its identifying a good situation to screw up. I trust his judgement and believe Tulsa will be good for at least 2 years.

 

[Pudge]

You mean both of them? Why?

I saw Villanova play at Temple in February. And I wasn't at all impressed. Streaky good shooters; but you could get to the hoop at will. Temple!

So ... When they were in UConn's bracket, I felt great. And it played out the way I'd have scripted. And Jay Wright is clueless. They just can't beat a team like ours that will knock thru screens and defend guards. And Pinkston never established himself. A BIG nothing. And I'd not put them higher than top 20 today. And that means every BE team comes in levels of tiers after.

 

[intlzncster]

Statistically Tulsa was ranked #30 in defensive efficiency per Kenpom. That is a pretty good starting point to give them some respect. Top 50 in defensive turnover %. I like those #'s. Good defense should be able to make up for some of their shooting shortcomings. IF Tulsa can crack the top 100 in offensive efficiency next year with a roster comprising of NINE Juniors I expect them to make the tourney out of the AAC. They may not even have to reach that goal. My point is next year (2015-16) they could be very dangerous despite the Haith haterz chiming in. Any roster with NINE seniors with tournament experience is a true wildcard.

What did there schedule look like?

 

[UofMemphis]

UConn, SMU, Memphis, Cincy, Tulsa, and Temple will make next season a lot of fun...this is a very solid hoops conference.

Kevin Ollie, Larry Brown, Mick Cronin, Josh Pastner, Fran Dunphy, Frank Haith, Jeff Lebo, and Kelvin Sampson give the AAC a great coaching line up.

Add great ESPN exposure, and I'm very happy to be here in the AAC.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

What did there schedule look like?

Using the national average of .5000 Tulsa came in overall @ .5236 which put them above the national average. Non-Conference Tulsa had the 87th strongest schedule @.5738. Tulsa was also one of the youngest teams in the country last year coming in at .40 years behind the national average.

 

[UofMemphis]

Tulsa is happy with the ESPN exposure

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Using the national average of .5000 Tulsa came in overall @ .5236 which put them above the national average. Non-Conference Tulsa had the 87th strongest schedule @.5738. Tulsa was also one of the youngest teams in the country last year coming in at .40 years behind the national average.

Tulsa was really light on quality wins. Tuning up a bunch of low majors in CUSA and being a relevant player in the AAC are two very different things.

If you break out the top half of the AAC: Cincinnati, UConn, Memphis, SMU and Temple
and the bottom half: Tulane, ECU, UCF, USF and Houston,

Where does Tulsa fit? They look more like the bottom half than the top half to me. I wouldn't be surprised to see the top 4 teams (take out Temple) lose 2-3 games COMBINED against those bottom 5. Tulsa may be able to do well against that group too, but i don't see them picking up too many W's against the top half teams.

 

[Walker11]

Tulsa was really light on quality wins. Tuning up a bunch of low majors in CUSA and being a relevant player in the AAC are two very different things.

If you break out the top half of the AAC: Cincinnati, UConn, Memphis, SMU and Temple
and the bottom half: Tulane, ECU, UCF, USF and Houston,

Where does Tulsa fit? They look more like the bottom half than the top half to me. I wouldn't be surprised to see the top 4 teams (take out Temple) lose 2-3 games COMBINED against those bottom 5. Tulsa may be able to do well against that group too, but i don't see them picking up too many W's against the top half teams.

Houston and Tulsa don't fit in with those bottom 4 IMO. Houston has 4 or 5 top 100 kids and a good coach now. I watched 0 Tulsa games last year but they clearly aren't going to be a train wreck w/a complete roster returning.

I think the breakdown is more like: UCONN SMU > Cinci Memphis > Temple Houston Tulsa > USF ECU Tulane UCF. The bottom 4 is a train wreck but I can see the other 7 at least making the NIT.