Nelson's Top 25 before GoT starts

[pj]

You mean both of them? Why?

AAC > Big East

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Sure, Gtown is 49, not 9, because ESPN hates them. Makes sense.

What about CBS:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...15-preseason-top-25-and-one-national-rankings

Or SI:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/co...20140410/top-25-college-basketball-2014-2015/

Hate to? Big conspiracy against the BE (who fell on their face in the NCAA tournament)?

Look at those rankings. They just reshuffle the same schools that they had at the year end Top 25, and then add SMU and Nebraska because those two are impossible to ignore. Syracuse is #18 in SI. Syracuse loses their 3 best players, by far, off a team that was just OK this year. SI has Colorado at 9 because of a player that is actually going pro. SI had Michigan at #7. that is crazy even if McGarry was coming back, which he isn't.

Iowa State and Florida have HUGE losses. I like both coaches, but they are going to take at least a small step back. What is the point of even publishing a ranking that has Arizona at #3 despite losing its 2 best players?

As for the Big East, the ACC fell on its face a lot worse in the NCAA tournament, yet ESPN has nothing but love for that league. I guess teams only get better if they play on ESPN instead of Fox.

 

[caw]

ESPN rankings:

48. Georgetown Hoyas

Gone: Markel Starks, Nate Lubick, Moses Ayegba, Stephen Domingo

Returning: D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Joshua Smith, Jabril Trawick, Mikael Hopkins, Reggie Cameron, Aaron Bowen

Coming in: PF Isaac Copeland (ESPN No. 16), SF L.J. Peak (ESPN No. 31), PFPaul White (ESPN No. 34), PG Tre Campbell

Key Riser: Jabril Trawick -- He had a solid season as a junior, averaging 9.1 points per game. However, look for him to become more of a focal point of the offense with Starks gone.

Analysis: The Hoyas struggled, finishing 8-10 in the new Big East, and will lose their point guard in Starks and also a veteran big man in Lubick, who started for much of his time at Georgetown. However, John Thompson III returns his leading scorer in Smith-Rivera, also brings back Trawick and hopes to have Smith, who was academically ineligble for the second half of the season, back in the fold. He'll also bring in a talented recruiting class that features three players all ranked in the Top 35 nationally.

Summer Buzz: The Hoyas have a verbal from local power forward Marcus Derrickson, but still have three more scholarships in the class. They are trying for heralded big men Ivan Rabb and Diamond Stone, as well as Chance Comanche and wings Dwayne Bacon, Joshua Reaves and P.J. Dozier.

That's a whole lot of 3-4s and not too many 1-2s or 5s

PG: Trawick? Campbell
SG: DSR
SF: Bowen, Peak
PF:: Cameron, White, Hopkins, Copeland
C: Smith

Trawick isn't really a PG, guess Campbell better be good. They have a lot of ball handling issues if he isn't. They have a ton of athletic wings who can shoot but just too much overlap. They have Derrickson coming in in 2015 at PF, and are focusing on wings? Does JT3 not believe in having a PG? They will probably be solid but I'm not sure they have enough guard skill to do any serious damage.


Duke shouldn't be top 10. They lost a ton and while They have an amazing class on paper, they are completely unproven. UK at least has some returning players this year. Duke could end up being very good but shouldn't start in the top 10.

Nova will be good, but their ranking may be helped by playing a fairly weak schedule. Expect similar results to last year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

One of the things I was hoping to see out of this thread was some "hey, you missed this team" posts. It feels like the Top 20-25 schools from the end of this year are experiencing larger losses than you would normally see from that group. There were a lot of veteran teams like Iowa State, Baylor, Memphis and Florida that are losing a bunch of key players to graduation. I think there are going to be 5-7 teams that were either first round exits or not in the Dance at all this year that are going to be really good next year.

I came up with Georgetown, Nebraska, SMU and Clemson before I found out that Clemson's best player was gone. I was poking around the ACC but no one, other than Clemson, really popped out at me. None of the traditional powers that had down years like Indiana or Purdue seemed poised for an immediate turnaround. Providence played well at times but loses Cotton. St. Johns continues to be St. Johns. Temple will be better, but an NIT bid next year would get Dunphy CoY votes, that team has a long climb to an NCAA Tournament bid. So who am I missing?

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

One of the things I was hoping to see out of this thread was some "hey, you missed this team" posts. It feels like the Top 20-25 schools from the end of this year are experiencing larger losses than you would normally see from that group. There were a lot of veteran teams like Iowa State, Baylor, Memphis and Florida that are losing a bunch of key players to graduation. I think there are going to be 5-7 teams that were either first round exits or not in the Dance at all this year that are going to be really good next year.

I came up with Georgetown, Nebraska, SMU and Clemson before I found out that Clemson's best player was gone. I was poking around the ACC but no one, other than Clemson, really popped out at me. None of the traditional powers that had down years like Indiana or Purdue seemed poised for an immediate turnaround. Providence played well at times but loses Cotton. St. Johns continues to be St. Johns. Temple will be better, but an NIT bid next year would get Dunphy CoY votes, that team has a long climb to an NCAA Tournament bid. So who am I missing?

^^^^^^
I like Utah next year. They are a national sleeper. I can see them surprising college hoops and getting to the E8.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/...-trail-after-signing-new-contract.html?pg=all

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/utes/57829818-89/reyes-junior-utah-basketball.html.csp

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/29/brekkott-chapman-commits-to-utah/

 

[Walker11]

I agree about Cuse. They were bad on offense last year and lose Ennis and Fair. Grant was good on D but can be replaced by McCullough. They just project to be brutal on offense unless Kaleb Joseph is a let better then anyone thinks. They didn't develop any young talent last year and their fans are depending on Roberson to make a leap from 0 PT to leading scorer.

I would probably have Duke and UF 5-10 spots higher but I agree they are overrated. Most have both in the top 5. UF might gel and be great by the end of the year, but not to start. Duke is going to be weak on D again. Neither Jones or Okafor are known for their athleticism or defense. Duke fans expect Jones to be a 2 or 3 year player and Allen to get no burn so why would UConn fans have higher expectations? Cook is also a mediocre player but I do like Sulaimon and Jefferson. Good pieces but not game changers.

Hate to say it but I like UK big at number 1. Iowa State will be bringing in 3 more impact transfers and Hoiberg is a good coach so I expect them to be very relevant.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Good call on Utah. I am surprised I missed them.

 

[caw]

I agree about Cuse. They were bad on offense last year and lose Ennis and Fair. Grant was good on D but can be replaced by McCullough. They just project to be brutal on offense unless Kaleb Joseph is a let better then anyone thinks. They didn't develop any young talent last year and their fans are depending on Roberson to make a leap from 0 PT to leading scorer.

I would probably have Duke and UF 5-10 spots higher but I agree they are overrated. Most have both in the top 5. UF might gel and be great by the end of the year, but not to start. Duke is going to be weak on D again. Neither Jones or Okafor are known for their athleticism or defense. Duke fans expect Jones to be a 2 or 3 year player and Allen to get no burn so why would UConn fans have higher expectations? Cook is also a mediocre player but I do like Sulaimon and Jefferson. Good pieces but not game changers.

Hate to say it but I like UK big at number 1. Iowa State will be bringing in 3 more impact transfers and Hoiberg is a good coach so I expect them to be very relevant.

McCullough will need to actually try on defense (even in the zone) to help. He's lazy from what I've seen (maybe poor coaching). Very talented, but if he had a motor he would be in discussion for best player in class and he just keeps falling (my eyes agree with that assessment). He does try a bit more on offense but is a work in progress.

Joseph is a better athlete than Ennis but is a bit wilder also. They have no one to replace Fair unless their bench warming freshmen have huge leaps as sophomores.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Good call on Utah. I am surprised I missed them.

No biggie. I think everyone is missing Utah. That's kinda why this is fun. Utah lost in the first round of the NIT. They return everyone though except Onwas who transferred out because his PT was about to go to zero minutes per (and they have a nice recruiting class coming in). Wright is a baller and Loveridge is very nice. This team is just undervalued. I think when WSU travels to Huntsman Center and loses in early December... Utah will officially be on the 2014-15 college hoops map. WSU will be highly ranked and Utah lucky to be receiving votes. I think Utah clocks them and gets ranked around #21 post WSU. Utah conceivably could finish 2nd in the Pac-12 and should take out Zona at Huntsman which is 1 of the toughest places to win. They are not necessarily a national championship quality team at all but could position themselves for a seed as high as #4 going into March Madness. I think between #4-#6 seed is probable actually barring a key injury.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

If Hamilton starts or sees major minutes at the "4"...the team better shoot 65% from the field or we are going to get beat by 20 - 25 every night. Hamilton weighs about 17 pounds....maybe 18.5. He is a natural 2/3 type. Quick, sleak, good range, decent handle.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If Hamilton starts or sees major minutes at the "4"...the team better shoot 65% from the field or we are going to get beat by 20 - 25 every night. Hamilton weighs about 17 pounds....maybe 18.5. He is a natural 2/3 type. Quick, sleak, good range, decent handle.

I don't know what this obsession is with the sky is falling if Hamilton is checking a 4 on defense. Ollie, like Calhoun before him, will play lineups that include his 5 best players, no matter what their position. To me, that means you will see some Boat, Purvis, TSam, Hamilton and Brimah. No biggie.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

I don't know what this obsession is with the sky is falling if Hamilton is checking a 4 on defense. Ollie, like Calhoun before him, will play lineups that include his 5 best players, no matter what their position. To me, that means you will see some Boat, Purvis, TSam, Hamilton and Brimah. No biggie.

I missed the part where I hinted the sky is falling. I will re-read what I typed earlier.

In KO I Trust. If he thinks playing a 6'7" slasher/shooter who weighs 170 lbs on a fat day is a good idea, so be it. I just doubt that happens. Not based on my basketball knowledge or my "eye test". I believe it because I stopped main-lining heroin back in the late 60s. Again, if KO and the staff thinks it works....cool with me.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Bump. I am sticking by my ranking for the most part. Clemson stays off, replacing them with Utah. I am dropping SMU about 14 slots to 20 because Mudiay is gone. It feels like the ACC will be a lot of bubble teams this year, because I think the league will be good but other than the teams previously mentioned, i don't see anyone sticking out.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Bump. I am sticking by my ranking for the most part. Clemson stays off, replacing them with Utah. I am dropping SMU about 14 slots to 20 because Mudiay is gone. It feels like the ACC will be a lot of bubble teams this year, because I think the league will be good but other than the teams previously mentioned, i don't see anyone sticking out.

IF Beard and/or Durham can allow Ky Madden to play off the ball for stretches Arkansas is going to be a big time sleeper this year. They beat Kentucky twice last year. Qualls, Madden & Portis are a very nice threesome. Anderson though is no Kevin Ollie. If Ollie were coaching this Arkansas team they could be scary good this year. Arkansas @ Iowa State early will be an interesting game!

 

[Danzz]

Other than your insistence on Hamilton playing the 4 (I don't think he'll see time there), I think this is a nice list, Nelson. It's easy to nitpick, and I do think you have some teams too high (UNC, Villanova, Pitt, Clemson may all be a little too high, Georgetown a lot), and some teams to low (Virginia jumps out, but I get your logic). But this is a hard list to do, and this is as good as any. And I also think you are right about UK.

We'll see Purvis at the 4 before Hamilton and we won't see much of him at the 4 either.
The big question mark for us is scoring. We lost a lot and will have to make up for it with improved returning players and new guys. Nolan, Facey and Brimah will have to contribute points or KO will be going with a 3 guard lineup a more than he wants to. Whatever happens, this is going to be one hell of a defensive team.

 

[UofMemphis]

Bump. I am sticking by my ranking for the most part. Clemson stays off, replacing them with Utah. I am dropping SMU about 14 slots to 20 because Mudiay is gone. It feels like the ACC will be a lot of bubble teams this year, because I think the league will be good but other than the teams previously mentioned, i don't see anyone sticking out.

I like seeing Memphis fly under the radar. It seems recently we get rated high, and drop fast after our first L. In your first predictions you said "Iowa State and Memphis - huge losses" and this seems to be what folks are thinking about Memphis...but with Austin Nichols, Shaq Goodwin, Nick King, Kuran Iverson, Pookie Powell...and adding guys like Kedren Johnson, Calvin Godfrey, Trahson Burrell, and Dom Magee...Memphis will have lots of talent.

I still have Memphis finishing third behind UConn and SMU...just ahead of Cincy and Tulsa.

 

[intlzncster]

I hate you for bringing this thread back. I saw the title and got excited that GoT was inexplicably starting up for the 5th season.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

I like seeing Memphis fly under the radar. It seems recently we get rated high, and drop fast after our first L. In your first predictions you said "Iowa State and Memphis - huge losses" and this seems to be what folks are thinking about Memphis...but with Austin Nichols, Shaq Goodwin, Nick King, Kuran Iverson, Pookie Powell...and adding guys like Kedren Johnson, Calvin Godfrey, Trahson Burrell, and Dom Magee...Memphis will have lots of talent.

I still have Memphis finishing third behind UConn and SMU...just ahead of Cincy and Tulsa.

Tulsa is a team to watch in the American. They will prolly start 5 Juniors. This is a good team that lost to UCLA in the 1st round last year. The 2015-16 version could be a great sleeper pick to make a very deep run in March.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Tulsa is a team to watch in the American. They will prolly start 5 Juniors. This is a good team that lost to UCLA in the 1st round last year. The 2015-16 version could be a great sleeper pick to make a very deep run in March.

Tulsa tore up a bad CUSA after starting 1-6. I think even AAC competition will be too much for them.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Tulsa tore up a bad CUSA after starting 1-6. I think even AAC competition will be too much for them.

Statistically Tulsa was ranked #30 in defensive efficiency per Kenpom. That is a pretty good starting point to give them some respect. Top 50 in defensive turnover %. I like those #'s. Good defense should be able to make up for some of their shooting shortcomings. IF Tulsa can crack the top 100 in offensive efficiency next year with a roster comprising of NINE Juniors I expect them to make the tourney out of the AAC. They may not even have to reach that goal. My point is next year (2015-16) they could be very dangerous despite the Haith haterz chiming in. Any roster with NINE seniors with tournament experience is a true wildcard.

 

[Walker11]

Statistically Tulsa was ranked #30 in defensive efficiency per Kenpom. That is a pretty good starting point to give them some respect. Top 50 in defensive turnover %. I like those #'s. Good defense should be able to make up for some of their shooting shortcomings. IF Tulsa can crack the top 100 in offensive efficiency next year with a roster comprising of NINE Juniors I expect them to make the tourney out of the AAC. They may not even have to reach that goal. My point is next year (2015-16) they could be very dangerous despite the Haith haterz chiming in. Any roster with NINE seniors with tournament experience is a true wildcard.

If there is one thing Haith does well, its identifying a good situation to screw up. I trust his judgement and believe Tulsa will be good for at least 2 years.

 

[Pudge]

You mean both of them? Why?

I saw Villanova play at Temple in February. And I wasn't at all impressed. Streaky good shooters; but you could get to the hoop at will. Temple!

So ... When they were in UConn's bracket, I felt great. And it played out the way I'd have scripted. And Jay Wright is clueless. They just can't beat a team like ours that will knock thru screens and defend guards. And Pinkston never established himself. A BIG nothing. And I'd not put them higher than top 20 today. And that means every BE team comes in levels of tiers after.

 

[intlzncster]

Statistically Tulsa was ranked #30 in defensive efficiency per Kenpom. That is a pretty good starting point to give them some respect. Top 50 in defensive turnover %. I like those #'s. Good defense should be able to make up for some of their shooting shortcomings. IF Tulsa can crack the top 100 in offensive efficiency next year with a roster comprising of NINE Juniors I expect them to make the tourney out of the AAC. They may not even have to reach that goal. My point is next year (2015-16) they could be very dangerous despite the Haith haterz chiming in. Any roster with NINE seniors with tournament experience is a true wildcard.

What did there schedule look like?

 

[UofMemphis]

UConn, SMU, Memphis, Cincy, Tulsa, and Temple will make next season a lot of fun...this is a very solid hoops conference.

Kevin Ollie, Larry Brown, Mick Cronin, Josh Pastner, Fran Dunphy, Frank Haith, Jeff Lebo, and Kelvin Sampson give the AAC a great coaching line up.

Add great ESPN exposure, and I'm very happy to be here in the AAC.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

What did there schedule look like?

Using the national average of .5000 Tulsa came in overall @ .5236 which put them above the national average. Non-Conference Tulsa had the 87th strongest schedule @.5738. Tulsa was also one of the youngest teams in the country last year coming in at .40 years behind the national average.