ND Fans arguing over Big 10

[Zissou]

ND won't be penalized for 12 games. The biggest reason for a CCG is cash, and they have their own TV deal.

ND at 11-1 with an early season loss will look better than Georgia, for example, if Georgia went 11-1 or 12-0 and then lost the SEC Title game.

The CCG has its own downside. Cash is clearly an upside. CCG will not push ND to join a conference.

It is much more likely that the CFP expands before ND considers a conference, and then there is even less of a case for a conference membership.

 

[Irishfan]

Sure, or it could be a conference championship game against a highly ranked opponent. Pretty silly for anybody, ND included, to believe somehow less is more. I don't care who you are playing, you assume both risk of losing and risk of injury every time you take the field. Teams willing to assume that risk should be given greater consideration. If you are not willing to play in a conference, and compete for its championship, then schedule @ Hawaii every season so you have 13 games to compare to everyone else in the playoff discsussion.

Ohio State did not play in a conference championship game last year, but made it to the playoff. They did not win their conference. The team that won the conference actually beat Ohio State, but was left out of the playoff. Evidently, playing that 13th game, or winning a conference championship isn't all that important. It is apparent that the committee takes what it feels are the best four teams, whether they have played 12 or 13 games. I would expect that practice to continue.

 

[billybud]

Penn State lost two games...that was the killer for them.

Hard to make the play off with two losses if other teams are riding zero or one loss.

But...a 12-1 resume will trump a Notre Dame 11-1 resume, I think. Particularly if the 12-1 teams are also conference champs.

An undefeated Notre Dame might get in...

 

[Ldandy]

Penn State lost two games...that was the killer for them.

Hard to make the play off with two losses if other teams are riding zero or one loss.

But...a 12-1 resume will trump a Notre Dame 11-1 resume, I think. Particularly if the 12-1 teams are also conference champs.

An undefeated Notre Dame might get in...

Pretty much this. Conference championship games matter, but they are only one additional data point. Having two losses shut Penn State out of the tournament. It sucked but that's life. Unless ND goes undefeated or finishes 11-1 with a major resume of wins over ranked teams they have no shot of bumping a 12-0 or 11-1 B1G, SEC, PAC or ACC Champ. They won't bump UT or OU either.

 

[Zissou]

[QUOTE="Unless ND goes undefeated or finishes 11-1 with a major resume of wins over ranked teams they have no shot of bumping a 12-0 or 11-1 B1G, SEC, PAC or ACC Champ. They won't bump UT or OU either.[/QUOTE]
It's hard to have 2 losses and get into the 4 team CFP. The P5 teams that you hypothesize will have 13 total games.

Unless a P5 team goes undefeated of finishes 12-1 with a major resume of wins over ranked teams they have no shot of bumping a 12-0 or 11-1 Notre Dame.

The real question is can an 11-1 ND bump a 12-1 P5 team. Yes, there are plenty of scenarios where that is possible.

 

[billybud]

When they bump a 12-1 P5 conference champ...that will tell you something.

The Big 12 champ was passed over at 11-1...

Notre Dame did play for the BCS championship...but at 12-0...and. their opponent. Alabama, was the only other team in the Final BCS that won 12 games (12-1).

An unusual year in that there was only one undefeated team (Notre Dame)...and only one other team with 12 wins (Alabama).

 

[Ldandy]

[QUOTE="Unless ND goes undefeated or finishes 11-1 with a major resume of wins over ranked teams they have no shot of bumping a 12-0 or 11-1 B1G, SEC, PAC or ACC Champ. They won't bump UT or OU either.

It's hard to have 2 losses and get into the 4 team CFP. The P5 teams that you hypothesize will have 13 total games.

Unless a P5 team goes undefeated of finishes 12-1 with a major resume of wins over ranked teams they have no shot of bumping a 12-0 or 11-1 Notre Dame.

The real question is can an 11-1 ND bump a 12-1 P5 team. Yes, there are plenty of scenarios where that is possible.[/QUOTE]

Could they bump a 12-1 PAC Team? Hypothetically anything is possible as a committee of people pick the finalists. However I find it highly unlikely that a group of people with representatives from both B1G and PAC Programs are going to pass over a 12-1 PAC School for an 11-1 ND Team. That ND Team would have to put together a pretty stout resume to even dream of that happening. JMO but ND needs to go 12-0 or multiple P5 League representatives need to schit the bed.

 

[Irishfan]

Could they bump a 12-1 PAC Team? Hypothetically anything is possible as a committee of people pick the finalists. However I find it highly unlikely that a group of people with representatives from both B1G and PAC Programs are going to pass over a 12-1 PAC School for an 11-1 ND Team. That ND Team would have to put together a pretty stout resume to even dream of that happening. JMO but ND needs to go 12-0 or multiple P5 League representatives need to schit the bed.

Notre Dame plays two Pac12 teams each year for the next ten years (Stanford and USC) whether an 11-1 ND team could pass over a 12-1 Pac12 champ would probably depend on how that Pac12 champ played against Stanford and SC versus the way that ND fared against them. As far as the representation on the committee, ND also has ties to some of the members on the committee. (Not all of them good ones, but most are)

 

[billybud]

A 11-1 Notre Dame will not pass over a 12-1 SEC Champ

...nor a 12-1 Big Ten Champ

...nor, I think, a 12-1 ACC Champ (that champ would have to have its one loss to the Irish).

Maybe, maybe a 12-1 PAC Champ, if that champ's loss was to Notre Dame


If the stars all aligned in a once in a millennium event, and Notre Dame went 11-1 with wins over both the PAC Champ and ACC Champ...they would get in.

 

[JeepCSC]

It's easier to recruit when you are selling a chance to win titles, and not simply national ones. Notre Dame is in a situation unique in college football, as they are truly boom-or-bust. There is no safety net. If they don't make the playoffs, there is no hardware they can attain. No divisional bragging rights, or conference championship game, nothing besides a generic bowl somewhere in the desert. You ask the average football fan, Notre Dame has had one good season in 20 years. It's because they are completely off the radar if they aren't in the hunt for a national title. Their first loss, and the media stops paying attention to them. The media will follow FSU or Michigan or Washington past their first loss because there is still a divisional title on the line, and beyond that the conference title, and maybe redemption with a playoff bid. Notre Dame doesn't get that benefit now.

 

[TerryD]

It's easier to recruit when you are selling a chance to win titles, and not simply national ones. Notre Dame is in a situation unique in college football, as they are truly boom-or-bust. There is no safety net. If they don't make the playoffs, there is no hardware they can attain. No divisional bragging rights, or conference championship game, nothing besides a generic bowl somewhere in the desert. You ask the average football fan, Notre Dame has had one good season in 20 years. It's because they are completely off the radar if they aren't in the hunt for a national title. Their first loss, and the media stops paying attention to them. The media will follow FSU or Michigan or Washington past their first loss because there is still a divisional title on the line, and beyond that the conference title, and maybe redemption with a playoff bid. Notre Dame doesn't get that benefit now.

ND understands and accepts this. It has always been this way at ND. Football has never been in a conference, so those types of titles are alien to ND fans.

 

[JeepCSC]

ND understands and accepts this. It has always been this way at ND. Football has never been in a conference, so those types of titles are alien to ND fans.

The fans know no other world. Recruits are the issue though. They know a different world. And it's one largely shaped by the media, where conference title runs dominate October and November storylines.

 

[Irishfan]

The fans know no other world. Recruits are the issue though. They know a different world. And it's one largely shaped by the media, where conference title runs dominate October and November storylines.

I think recruits will be impacted by being offered a shot at a national championship more than a conference title. Last year, Ohio State made it to the college football playoff, Penn State won the Big Ten conference championship. I do not think recruits were more impressed with Penn State's year than Ohio State's.

 

[JeepCSC]

I think recruits will be impacted by being offered a shot at a national championship more than a conference title. Last year, Ohio State made it to the college football playoff, Penn State won the Big Ten conference championship. I do not think recruits were more impressed with Penn State's year than Ohio State's.

Penn State won't have a leg up on Ohio State. But they will have a leg up on other programs. It's the nature of the beast. Recruits like media attention. Penn State got a lot of it despite not being a playoff team.

 

[billybud]

Depends on where the recruit is from....Not many good Florida recruits have an interest in Penn State.

Only two on PSU's roster are from Florida...Cody Hodgens, an unranked WR ( brother plays PSU baseball) and a 3 star CB, Amani Oruwariye.

 

[JeepCSC]

Well the point wasn't that conference title runs expand a team's recruiting footprint, but that it intensifies the media discussion of a team. There isn't a lot of substitute for a December weekend game when most teams are at home and you are playing for a title. Not as far as media attention gets. That's probably more important than most any non-playoff bowl.

 

[Zissou]

A 11-1 Notre Dame will not pass over a 12-1 SEC Champ

...nor a 12-1 Big Ten Champ

...nor, I think, a 12-1 ACC Champ (that champ would have to have its one loss to the Irish).

Maybe, maybe a 12-1 PAC Champ, if that champ's loss was to Notre Dame

If the stars all aligned in a once in a millennium event, and Notre Dame went 11-1 with wins over both the PAC Champ and ACC Champ...they would get in.

What if the 12-1 SEC team isn't the Champ? What if Alabama runs the table in the regular season, and drops the SEC CCG to 1 loss Georgia.? And Georgia's only loss is at ND?

Run the hypothetical further, and ND's only loss is at Mich State, 30-31. And the Spartans win the B1G.

 

[billybud]

And if I had wheels, I'd be a wagon...we can make up all sorts of scenarios...most times they are "what ifs" but every once in a great while...stuff just happens.

In 2011, Alabama did not win their division nor their conference. and thus did not play in the SEC CCG.... and they won the National Championship. But only because they were re paired with LSU (who had an identical record, but had beaten Bama head to head already in season, and were SEC champs).

It happened to Georgia Tech when they played in the SEC......

"The Volunteers finished the season 10-1-0 overall and went a perfect 5-0 in the SEC. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech went undefeated on the season (11-0-1) while playing one more game than Tennessee and went undefeated in the conference (7-0) while playing two extra games. Unfortunately, the teams never met on the field.

They may not have won conference outright, but the Yellow Jackets were the easy choice for the Sugar Bowl bid, but Tennessee got the invite because of the eye test."

 

[Ldandy]

Depends on where the recruit is from....Not many good Florida recruits have an interest in Penn State.

Only two on PSU's roster are from Florida...Cody Hodgens, an unranked WR ( brother plays PSU baseball) and a 3 star CB, Amani Oruwariye.

Florida will never be a key recruiting area for Penn State. Most of our needs are filled in PA/NJ/MD/VA. That said we have two Rivals 4 Star Prospects Committed from Florida this year already, so it shows that recruiting is fluid.

 

[Ldandy]

Penn State won't have a leg up on Ohio State. But they will have a leg up on other programs. It's the nature of the beast. Recruits like media attention. Penn State got a lot of it despite not being a playoff team.

Have you seen Ohio State's Recruiting? Literally no one gets a leg up on them in terms of talent including Alabama. Despite this edge in talent, it was proven twice last season that they are far from infallible when they step on it.

 

[JeepCSC]

Have you seen Ohio State's Recruiting? Literally no one gets a leg up on them in terms of talent including Alabama. Despite this edge in talent, it was proven twice last season that they are far from infallible when they step on it.

I feel like people are only half-reading my posts. I don't think we are talking about the same thing. Literally nothing about Florida hs recruits going to Penn State or Ohio State being a recruiting juggernaut has anything to do with anything I have said. Programs like media attention, media likes conferences races, and recruits like playing for titles (conference or otherwise). Notre Dame is playing with a handicap.

 

[TerryD]

I feel like people are only half-reading my posts. I don't think we are talking about the same thing. Literally nothing about Florida hs recruits going to Penn State or Ohio State being a recruiting juggernaut has anything to do with anything I have said. Programs like media attention, media likes conferences races, and recruits like playing for titles (conference or otherwise). Notre Dame is playing with a handicap.

And it knows this and is ok with this......

 

[billybud]

Notre Dame, for 2018 recruits, has the current #11 class (Rivals) with only 13 recruits. The highest ranking class with 13 or fewer commits.

Their 2017 class was ranked #13..and the 2016 class was ranked #13.

The Irish seem to have found their level.

Sure, that level is below Ohio State, Alabama, and a small handful of others...but it is not far from Clemson's (#13, #6, #22) and is at a very competitive level.

 

[JeepCSC]

Notre Dame, for 2018 recruits, has the current #11 class (Rivals) with only 13 recruits. The highest ranking class with 13 or fewer commits.

Their 2017 class was ranked #13..and the 2016 class was ranked #13.

The Irish seem to have found their level.

Sure, that level is below Ohio State, Alabama, and a small handful of others...but it is not far from Clemson's (#13, #6, #22) and is at a very competitive level.

Finding class rankings from 20 years ago isn't easy. But a quick gauge is the USA Today All-High school teams. From 1982-1999, Notre Dame had 47 players on the first team. Since then, 23. Any recruiting problems at Notre Dame is relative of course, but when their traditional peers are Alabama and Ohio State, well, it is what it is.

 

[JeepCSC]

And it knows this and is ok with this.

Fans know this in regards to independence. But they also know winning. If those two are no longer compatible, something will give.

 

[TerryD]

Fans know this in regards to independence. But they also know winning. If those two are no longer compatible, something will give.

ND's administration does not want to win, not big or consistently. They are content to cash in as long as they can, sure, but if you think that playoff contention and competitive disadvantage will drive ND headlong into football conference membership, you are mistaken.

Here again are Jack Swarbrick's recent comments on the subject:

Indy Star interview with Jack Swarbrick (7/14/17):


Q: Switching gears, what would it take for Notre Dame to join the ACC full time in football?

A: You can always weigh some circumstance that would do it, but we don’t think that way and we are very comfortable with and focused on our independence because of the things it does for the university, not for us. If we didn’t have a broadcast partner, that would be one thing. But we have a great relationship with NBC and look forward to that continuing. I don’t foresee any change in philosophy which would ever cause us to do it.

 

[buddy]

"You can always weigh some circumstance that would do it." That part you didn't bold. Just sayin, there is an equivocation, although the last sentence is pretty conclusive. I do agree with you however, that ND will likely not join a conference at least for the next twenty years. Some folks just don't want to hear facts. Unfortunately, if UConn's P5 ACC hopes are tied to ND, it is not happening, not now, not ever.

 

[Irishfan]

"You can always weigh some circumstance that would do it." That part you didn't bold. Just sayin, there is an equivocation, although the last sentence is pretty conclusive. I do agree with you however, that ND will likely not join a conference at least for the next twenty years. Some folks just don't want to hear facts. Unfortunately, if UConn's P5 ACC hopes are tied to ND, it is not happening, not now, not ever.

I doubt anyone actually believes that Uconn getting into a P5 conference is tied to Notre Dame's decision in the matter.

 

[billybud]

I don't think that Notre Dame sees themselves as an Alabama or Ohio State....they at one time, in the now distancing past, were a football heavy weight.

The Irish are still a heavy...just not a program that will challenge for the NC...

I think that they now see themselves somewhat differently....a good program, a program that plays a national schedule, but not necessarily one that is primed to run for a NC in any given year.

 

[billybud]

I doubt anyone actually believes that Uconn getting into a P5 conference is tied to Notre Dame's decision in the matter.

John Swofford does...he said as much in the ACC Media Days this month. Not naming UConn, but saying the ACC would add #16 if Notre Dame came on board...

A. My guess is whatever comes at that point in time, and far be it from me to predict that, I don’t see it affecting the ACC very much. If Notre Dame wanted to take a step to come in football, I think the conference would readily have that conversation. Then you’re maybe looking at a 16th school to have balanced football divisions. Beyond that, my guess is that this league will, in 2035-36, look a lot like it does today in terms of its membership. Elsewhere? I think we’ll just have to wait and see. I never thought our league would be 15 (teams). Seriously. There was a time when I started seeing that there was benefit to that, and not only benefit but necessity. But when I took the job 20 years ago I didn’t see that. I thought maybe 12. And then things happen and things change in the landscape and the marketplace and what you need to do in order to keep the conference at the most prominent level. So those things change. If there becomes this sense of having 20-member conferences-slash-associations, and there are fewer of them, long term I guess that could come into play. In terms of our own membership, and in the period of time you asked me about, that would be my answer in terms of us.