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NCAA tournament update

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I posted this in the other thread but it's worth repeating here:

For those who are still in the "overreaction" group - Italy just today published guidance to their hospitals for recommendation on allocation criteria. It is grave - doctors and nurses now have to start to determine who to treat and who to let die.

This is a country that just over a week ago had very few cases. If you think that can't happen here then you're being willfully ignorant.

Yeah. This is bone chilling.
 
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Posted this in the other thread, thought I'd share here too.


We already have enough data to say with pretty reasonable confidence that taking the data from China would be a substantial overestimation for severe infection prevalence and hospitalization #'s.

So far in MA, 6/92 cases have been hospitalized (albeit 24 cases still "under investigation"; more might eventually need inpatient care)
 
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My office just closed and everyone needs to work from home until the 27th
 
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Three weeks ago in Italy there were single-digit confirmed cases, now hospitals are at capacity and the country is in a full quarantine. Tell me exactly how I am overreacting to those two facts.

The Chinese are buying up property and resources in many countries, Italy and Iran being two of the most prominent, and those countries did not put in travel bans like we did for Chinese travelers during the most contagious time period. That alone may have been the most important public health measure taken to date. We won't know for a while yet but it will certainly be interesting to see after the fact where the major outbreaks occurred here and what links to China may have been responsible.

The point being Italy may have a major crisis on its hands due to many infected travelers being allowed into their country, and moving around in the country, thus spreading the contagion far and wide.
 

intlzncster

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You’re speaking as if there is a 100% mortality rate in the elderly community... currently it is in the single digits, probably lower due to people having it and not even knowing. The hysteria is out of control. In the grand scheme of things SARS was much worse.... the Wuhan virus is killing around the same rate as the seasonal flu. Let’s not freak out people

Wait, because it doesn't kill 100% of the people it's therefore not a significant risk to an older person? That's a hell of a take.

And you're speaking as if yo know the exact mortality rates. we don't. The data on this virus sucks right now. We also don't know which kinds of elderly folks are most susceptible.

So if you don't know, you take measures against it. Put it this way, would you expose your grandparents to it? If the answer is no, then don't do it for anybody else.

The hysteria is out of control. In the grand scheme of things SARS was much worse.... the Wuhan virus is killing around the same rate as the seasonal flu. Let’s not freak out people

Honestly man this is one of the dumbest ways to think about any situation like as you could possibly have. It's this way of thinking that will wipe out half the human race when a truly deadly virus does show up. Why? Because you didn't jump on it early enough.

And How good are you at predicting viral mutations?

Again, when you don't know, you pull out the stops until you do know. It's never a good idea to 'wait and see' with a viral outbreak. This is what dead people did.


EDIT: Lot of people on this thread like "oh this is way overblown yada yada ya'll gonna be the first ones to check out when a full blown killer gets out. will be interesting to hear your take when you're dead.

What we have here is an interesting test case for how to handle response a much more serious outbreak. We are currently failing the test.
 
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intlzncster

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The insurance company is going to pay out a billion dollars?

They gotta figure out a way to play it, so that it broadcasts, and the TV dollars are saved. They can deal without live audience.
 

Hans Sprungfeld

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You realize the Italians also switched sides in WWII the minute things got rough.
Does this mean there's a chance that you'll stop conflating your, "I'll be OK, you'll be OK, so chill out from all this hysteria" with, "We're all gonna be OK, so chill out from all this hysteria"?
 
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We're gonna hear so many squeaky shoes.
Gonna be totally bizarre but kind of interesting to watch NCAA tournament games with the attendance of pickup games at the local Y.
 
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If the death toll was higher than the seasonal flu (and it might get there), these folks are just gonna say that it's not bad because it's not as bad as some other thing. You already hear people say "well it's not the plague."
 

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