NBA Playoffs

[bballgrda]

Strong takes and stats to back it up. Is Russ a little early MJ-ish, thought of as too selfish to win and truly needed to recalibrate? Or is he Allen Iverson and never changing? The league is way too strong right now for Russ to carry a mediocre squad to the finals like Iverson did.

Carmelo is modern day Dominique (OKC comp is 'nique in his last futile iteration on Celtics) minus the dunks & swag.

Westbrook can make a bad team ok or slightly above average. I am not convinced how much he makes a great team the best team. He just doesn't seem to have a solid grasp on game winning decisions, what helps the team the most. The fact that he even entertained Rubio is hilarious to me as well. There is no doubt that he plays hard and he cares which I admire.

Mediocre LMAOOO so prime Paul George, prime Steven Adams, and a HOFer in Melo isn’t enough to get out of the first round for Russ?

Got the best injury luck of any good team, should be at worst a 4 seed, instead ends up a 7, and you know PG ain’t sticking around for this

This isnt' true. Losing Andre Roberson is ultimately what did OKC in. They wouldn't be playing Utah in this round. Utah's been playing like a top team, maybe even a contender for months.

 

[Rocktheworld]

This isnt' true. Losing Andre Robinson is ultimately what did OKC in. They wouldn't be playing Utah in this round Utah's been playing like a top team, maybe even a contender for months.

Yeah the big fall-off from at-worst 4 seed to 7 seed is because of Robinson.

Most teams have dealt with bigger losses.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I think Frank will be good, he just needs 2-3 years. His length and defensive ability rare in a point guard. Has good vision and smarts, jumper is coming around. I think he's another Jrue Holiday in due time.

CHA and DET are the ones who should be killing themselves over passing on Mitchell.

C'mon, everyone other than maybe Celtics & Mavs should be second guessing and reviewing their process over Mitchell. He's going to finish #2 in ROY and he looks as good as Simmons right now.
Who would you rather have: Fultz, Tatum, Ball, JJackson, DFox, JIsaac, The Finnisher, FrankieSmokes, DSmithJr, ZCollins, Monk, LUKE KENNARD (doh) or #13Mitchell?
Utah is in the playoffs and likely advancing with Mitchell as their #1. You can make a case for Tatum or Smith Jr. but no one else.

 

[Scoe]

I'm a Knicks fan but way more upset UConn didn't get him. Lives in Greenwich, went to Greenwich Country Day, Canterbury, and shared a backcourt with Jalen at Brewster. Mitchell Adams backcourt would have been amazing.

Ollie would probably still be here if that were the case lol.

 

[MadDogRevival]

Westbrook can make a bad team ok or slightly above average.

Not to get off the rails here, but this is one of the reasons that I think LBJ is the greatest player ever. Guy can flat out take a bunch of scrubs and drag them to the NBA finals. Unreal. Fishy had a post back when Clev. won the second game against GS in the finals the year K. Irving went down - something that captured the awe I felt at watching him carry a team.

They don't have a stat that measures "team impact". They should. Would be a good project for a Stats major. Find a measure of the absolute talent around a guy, and then figure out his impact on that talent. My guess is that James would be the greatest ever, by a lot.

 

[Lefty2one]

C'mon, everyone other than maybe Celtics & Mavs should be second guessing and reviewing their process over Mitchell. He's going to finish #2 in ROY and he looks as good as Simmons right now.

I get that POV, but Mitchell was never a realistic pick at 8. When everyone in the draft misses that badly on a kid like Mitchell it says more about the kid (not in a bad way) than a slew of teams around the league misjudging him. Something about Mitchell's game in the pre-draft process didn't stand out; that's the only way a kid like him falls to 13. When it's one team who misses on him you can blast them, when 7-9 teams miss then I chalk it up to being a diamond in the rough.

 

[superjohn]

Not to get off the rails here, but this is one of the reasons that I think LBJ is the greatest player ever. Guy can flat out take a bunch of scrubs and drag them to the NBA finals. Unreal. Fishy had a post back when Clev. won the second game against GS in the finals the year K. Irving went down - something that captured the awe

Dirk should be your guy then. Taking a team of Jason Kidd at the end of his career and a few other secondary guys at the end of their careers and leading them past a team of Hall of Famers in their primes.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Yeah the big fall-off from at-worst 4 seed to 7 seed is because of Robinson.

Most teams have dealt with bigger losses.

Not sure how sarcastic you intended, so I'll assume you know 2 games separated 3-8 in the West. If you look at OKC's record and particularly defense post-Roberson the effect is legit. Without Roberson, PG is less effective on D in this series and they are vulnerable defensively at 2 spots which is part of why Melo is playing like trash. There are certainly better players missing from postseason play thus far than Roberson (Kawhi, Curry, Irving, Hayward, Cousins, stand out) but losing a key defensive player can absolutely sabotage delicate chemistry - See Houston Mhabe-Moute.

The Thunder Are Falling Apart Without Andre Roberson

 

[Rocktheworld]

Not to get off the rails here, but this is one of the reasons that I think LBJ is the greatest player ever. Guy can flat out take a bunch of scrubs and drag them to the NBA finals.

Two things

Saw some stats posted yesterday comparing the top 2-6 scorers (obviously LBJ is 1) this postseason to his 07 team. The 07 supporting cast was averaging 6.5 points more per game. Unreal how bad this Cleveland team is outside of LeBron, who by the way is carrying this super-poor team in his mid 30s as opposed to his mid 20s.

Second -and let’s put the Dallas series aside for the point of argument- how many series has LeBron lost in which he was favored? Was Jordan ever not favored in the finals? And if you plug in Jordan for LBJ, do those losing teams fare any better? I don’t think Jordan carries any Cavs team, and I don’t think he does much more than LeBron did in 2014.

 

[HuskyHawk]

C'mon, everyone other than maybe Celtics & Mavs should be second guessing and reviewing their process over Mitchell. He's going to finish #2 in ROY and he looks as good as Simmons right now.
Who would you rather have: Fultz, Tatum, Ball, JJackson, DFox, JIsaac, The Finnisher, FrankieSmokes, DSmithJr, ZCollins, Monk, LUKE KENNARD (doh) or #13Mitchell?
Utah is in the playoffs and likely advancing with Mitchell as their #1. You can make a case for Tatum or Smith Jr. but no one else.

And yet people here thought Boston was crazy to trade down and not take Fultz. Every single draft it's the same story. People start buying into the narratives that are being spun. I certainly didn't see this coming from Mitchell, but I wasn't sold on Fultz either. It's a very inexact science.

 

[Lefty2one]

People will always put a varying degree of weight on this but I can't look past the fact that the East has been a trainwreck for 95% of LeBron's career. Getting to the Finals hasn't exactly been a gargantuan task. I forget the stat from a few years ago but I believe LeBron has only defeated seven 50-win teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs in his career. MJ defeated 14 in the East; they've both been to the postseason 13 times.

 

[bballgrda]

Yeah the big fall-off from at-worst 4 seed to 7 seed is because of Robinson.

Most teams have dealt with bigger losses.

It's hard for me to say that I have any idea what I am talking about when I misremembered the dude's name, but also hard to argue given how their season played out. They start out slow as the new team gels together. Then they figure it out, start playing better, go on a tear until Roberson gets hurt. Then end up getting the 5th seed. He made them an elite defense. As of this article: "OKC's other 4 starters (Westbrook, George, Anthony, Adams) are +14.8 this season per 100 possessions in net rating with Roberson on the floor. They are +1.8 without him."

 

[superjohn]

Two things

Saw some stats posted yesterday comparing the top 2-6 scorers (obviously LBJ is 1) this postseason to his 07 team. The 07 supporting cast was averaging 6.5 points more per game. Unreal how bad this Cleveland team is outside of LeBron, who by the way is carrying this super-poor team in his mid 30s as opposed to his mid 20s.

Second -and let’s put the Dallas series aside for the point of argument- how many series has LeBron lost in which he was favored? Was Jordan ever not favored in the finals? And if you plug in Jordan for LBJ, do those losing teams fare any better? I don’t think Jordan carries any Cavs team, and I don’t think he does much more than LeBron did in 2014.

Lebron won one series his team wasn't supposed to win and that was because Draymond Green is an idiot.

 

[bballgrda]

Lebron won one series his team wasn't supposed to win and that was because Draymond Green is an idiot.

So he is so good that his team is expected to win most series they play in?

 

[Lefty2one]

Saw some stats posted yesterday comparing the top 2-6 scorers (obviously LBJ is 1) this postseason to his 07 team. The 07 supporting cast was averaging 6.5 points more per game. Unreal how bad this Cleveland team is outside of LeBron, who by the way is carrying this super-poor team in his mid 30s as opposed to his mid 20s.

This interesting part is this Cavs team is way, way more talented than the 2007 team. The current Cavs are playing poorly but there is so much more talent. Kevin Love, Rodney Hood, George Hill, Clarkson, Green etc. That 2007 Cavs team was terrible. They had no business winning 50 games or making the Finals; the East was that bad at that point.

Every supporting Cavs player this series is playing well below their normal level of play with the exception of maybe JR and Korver.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Not sure how sarcastic you intended, so I'll assume you know 2 games separated 3-8 in the West.

Yeah all between sub-50 win teams. OKC was built to win well over 50 games as was Minnesota before Butler got hurt (speaking of an impact loss). Those two teams who should have been the 3-4 seeds win like they are supposed to, and the seeding wouldn’t be as close. Instead they end up 6 and 8.

I don’t buy that Roberson’s presence is good for 8ish wins. Not when you have those other 4.

 

[Dogdeacon]

And yet people here thought Boston was crazy to trade down and not take Fultz. Every single draft it's the same story. People start buying into the narratives that are being spun. I certainly didn't see this coming from Mitchell, but I wasn't sold on Fultz either. It's a very inexact science.

From a fan perspective that's fine cuz a lot of times all we've got is what we read, whatever games we've seen and then the narrative that is in the press. I suppose you can read scouting reports, but those aren't done by teams.
I.e. Seeing nothing but highlights of Fultz at Washington I was IN as a Celtics fan early just from the public narrative, but when they changed I was happy to change with them b/c my opinion was thinly fabricated. The only guys I kinda knew (seen more than 1 game) in the draft were Tatum, Ball and Fox/Monk. I liked but didn't love Tatum, mixed on Ball (would NOT have taken him #2) and cautiously optimistic on Fox/Monk. Regardless, fans have every right to beat up teams because they have WAY more information than we do and TEAMS should reject every narrative in the press unless its one the team helped spin (i.e. Celtics to flip from Fultz to Tatum).

Conclusion: Understanding the draft is a gambit, Fans can still fairly evaluate their teams draft based on how the player plays! Just because a guy wasn't projected to be picked higher or lower doesn't acquit a team from not evaluating him properly.

 

[Lefty2one]

Yeah all between sub-50 win teams. OKC was built to win well over 50 games as was Minnesota before Butler got hurt (speaking of an impact loss). Those two teams who should have been the 3-4 seeds win like they are supposed to, and the seeding wouldn’t be as close. Instead they end up 6 and 8.

I don’t buy that Roberson’s presence is good for 8ish wins. Not when you have those other 4.

Yeah and Roberson's absence has no impact on their offensive woes.

Still cracks me up thinking back to last summer when a huge chunk of people talked about how Presti deserved Exec of the Year before the season even tipped off.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Yeah all between sub-50 win teams. OKC was built to win well over 50 games as was Minnesota before Butler got hurt (speaking of an impact loss). Those two teams who should have been the 3-4 seeds win like they are supposed to, and the seeding wouldn’t be as close. Instead they end up 6 and 8.

I don’t buy that Roberson’s presence is good for 8ish wins. Not when you have those other 4.

Yeah, 8ish regular season wins is too high, but its all about playoffs now. Look at Carmelo's stats for this year, then you can adjust your expectations for his 16ppg, 40% shooting, 2.5FTA, 5.8 boards, 1.3 assists, 1.3 TO's. You just can't include that within the top 4 of any non-washed collection of players. Roberson loss hurts worse now b/c they can't hide Carmelo on D & playing Corey Brewer etc in his stead.

 

[QDOG5]

C'mon, everyone other than maybe Celtics & Mavs should be second guessing and reviewing their process over Mitchell. He's going to finish #2 in ROY and he looks as good as Simmons right now.
Who would you rather have: Fultz, Tatum, Ball, JJackson, DFox, JIsaac, The Finnisher, FrankieSmokes, DSmithJr, ZCollins, Monk, LUKE KENNARD (doh) or #13Mitchell?
Utah is in the playoffs and likely advancing with Mitchell as their #1. You can make a case for Tatum or Smith Jr. but no one else.

I'll put Markkanen in with Tatum and Smith Jr. He put up good numbers on a tanking Bulls team. He's got a better paint game offensively than he showed in college and his defense is good.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I'll put Markkanen in with Tatum and Smith Jr. He put up good numbers on a tanking Bulls team. He's got a better paint game offensively than he showed in college and his defense is good.

I agree he's good that's why I gave him his earned nickname, though I don't think he's currently in or getting in conversation for best player from this draft. If you redraft today just by performance it probably goes:
1. Mitchell, 2. Tatum, 3. Smith Jr. ,(a dropoff) 4. Kuzma 5. Markkanen

 

[champs99and04]

He plays so hard he gets a pass from a lot of folks. It'd be maddening to have him on your team; I can't imagine how frustrating these games must be for OKC fans.

Melo isn't much better. In his last 25 playoff games he's shooting 40% from the floor and 28% from three.

Melo has been a disaster. He has to be the worst player in the league getting 30+ minutes.

 

[intlzncster]

People will always put a varying degree of weight on this but I can't look past the fact that the East has been a trainwreck for 95% of LeBron's career. Getting to the Finals hasn't exactly been a gargantuan task. I forget the stat from a few years ago but I believe LeBron has only defeated seven 50-win teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs in his career. MJ defeated 14 in the East; they've both been to the postseason 13 times.

This is an underrated and accurate narrative. Doesn't mean LeBron's not great, but adds important context to the discussion.

 

[intlzncster]

Conclusion: Understanding the draft is a gambit, Fans can still fairly evaluate their teams draft based on how the player plays! Just because a guy wasn't projected to be picked higher or lower doesn't acquit a team from not evaluating him properly.

Even then, it doesn't necessarily tell the story. Danny Ainge absolutely nailed the Jalen Brown pick--was damn near universally panned for it. Jalen was nothing much to look at but raw clay in college. Kid looks like a stud, and he's still got tons of upside He's only 21 years old.

For the record, I thought the pick was garbage.

 

[champs99and04]

This is an underrated and accurate narrative. Doesn't mean LeBron's not great, but adds important context to the discussion.

You guys think it's an underrated narrative that the East has been trash?? If by that you mean beaten to death, sure.

For the record, I agree that it should be considered. However, it should also be considered when talking about LeBron's finals record.

 

[Rocktheworld]

This is an underrated and accurate narrative. Doesn't mean LeBron's not great, but adds important context to the discussion.

Honestly I don’t really care much about how bad the East has been when the figure reaches 7+ CONSECUTIVE finals. The physical and mental wear of 7+ consecutive 100+ game seasons, with the minutes LeBron has played across those seasons, must be insane.

And putting aside his production in the Finals, when speaking to his record about which most people care most, I don’t think (again besides Mavs) that if you plug MJ in for LBJ that they take down those Spurs and Warriors teams. LBJ has played better teams in the Finals or was at least out-matched across his career to a greater degree than MJ and I don’t think that’s very debatable.

 

[superjohn]

Honestly I don’t really care much about how bad the East has been when the figure reaches 7+ CONSECUTIVE finals. The physical and mental wear of 7+ consecutive 100+ game seasons, with the minutes LeBron has played across those seasons, must be insane.

And putting aside his production in the Finals, when speaking to his record in which most people care about, I don’t think (again besides Mavs) that if you plug MJ in for LBJ that the Heat or Cavs win any of those lost Finals. LBJ has played better teams in the Finals or was at least out-matched across his career to a greater degree than MJ and I don’t think that’s very debatable.

Imagine Jordan played in the same East Lebron played in, we're talking what 12-14 straight finals. Imagine Jordan's dad was never murdered and Jordan never went to play baseball, imagine Jordan didn't retire so early. A lot of what ifs but Jordan certainly would have had more titles had he not left to play baseball and retired early.

 

[intlzncster]

Honestly I don’t really care much about how bad the East has been when the figure reaches 7+ CONSECUTIVE finals. The physical and mental wear of 7+ consecutive 100+ game seasons, with the minutes LeBron has played across those seasons, must be insane.

And putting aside his production in the Finals, when speaking to his record about which most people care most, I don’t think (again besides Mavs) that if you plug MJ in for LBJ that they take down those Spurs and Warriors teams. LBJ has played better teams in the Finals or was at least out-matched across his career to a greater degree than MJ and I don’t think that’s very debatable.

The relative level of competition has to matter. If you are playing nobodies, then beating them should be expected.

The 7 years of 100+ games thing is very impressive, no doubt. Wasn't trying to take away from that. But it's not like the teams he was on were always junk. He was on a couple bad teams, but the overall talent on his team was usually better than the rest of the East. I mean, Wade/Bosch/LeBron was a shoe-in for the Finals.

Jordan went to six straight (that he played in). If he hadn't had his hiatus, maybe he goes to eight straight. Why knows? It's a what if.

Not sure the plugin argument holds much water, as the game was totally different. The 3pt shot wasn't as important, and consequently, MJ didn't develop it like he probably would have otherwise. Along a bunch of other examples. Really is two distinct eras.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Yeah and Roberson's absence has no impact on their offensive woes.

Seriously while he is surely missed on D, it’s not like OKC are giving up 120+ per night. Their offense has been relatively poor. After the game 1 win, they’re averaging under 100 ppg this series. From games 1-4, the assist totals went from 17 to 22 to 16 to 10 (Russ becoming more desperate and doing more hero ball). The ball movement has been awful.

While it doesn’t help that they’re letting a rookie undress them like this, their struggles on offense are too significant to ignore.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Imagine Jordan played in the same East Lebron played in, we're talking what 12-14 straight finals. Imagine Jordan's dad was never murdered and Jordan never went to play baseball, imagine Jordan didn't retire so early. A lot of what ifs but Jordan certainly would have had more titles had he not left to play baseball and retired early.

And he’s nowhere close to undefeated in the Finals if he played the teams LeBron has played.