NBA Off-Season Thread

[Rocktheworld]

Some big names could be moving, some more certain than others.

We have LeBron, and now it looks like Kawhi wants out of San Antonio. With him moving, some big dominoes could start to fall

We have to watch at least PG and CP3 as well.

Also we're under a week away from the Draft.

And the NBA Playoffs thread has gone for far too long

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The 76ers seem like the logical destination for LeBron for a lot of reasons. They are already good, they are still getting better, they are in a big city, they have cap room, and they are in the east which is an easier path to the Finals than LA.

I expect the Spurs to spin Kawhi into something good that can put them back in contention for a title.

After the Celtics and 76ers, the Bucks are the only team in the east that I see possibly getting materially better. The Wizards, Raptors, Pacers, Heat and Pistons all feel like 40-50 win teams depending on who has a good season next year. Hornets might be able to squeeze out 45 wins if everything breaks right. But all 6 of these teams are getting older and have cap problems, except the Pacers. The rest of the conference will be lucky to win 35 games, and most of those teams will be in the 20's.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The West will be fun to watch, but it will be a brutal path to the Finals for every team. It is not out of the question that 7 teams in the west win 50 games. OKC is the only one of the Top 11 teams in the West that I think may get materially worse next year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think Utah could be really good. Donovan is a stud, and I love their front line of Favors and Gobert. I am also a big Ricky Rubio fan. Ingles is the oldest starter at 30, Where did he come from? They do need to upgrade their bench. I am amazed that Quin Snyder has become such a good NBA coach after being a total train wreck at Missouri.

The Trail Blazers are fun to watch, and I like that Shabazz has landed on his feet, but the west is too tough for a team as guard dependent as the Trail Blazers to go too far.

I like the Pelicans a lot. They are probably better without Cousins than with him.

Denver's 3 best players are 20 (Murray), 22 (Jokic) and 23 (Harris). First of all, that front office is doing great work because I would never have expected any of those 3 to be that good, and secondly, they don't need to make a move and this team will get better. They won 46 games in the Western Conference, and they are like a daycare team.

 

[Dogdeacon]

The 76ers seem like the logical destination for LeBron for a lot of reasons. They are already good, they are still getting better, they are in a big city, they have cap room, and they are in the east which is an easier path to the Finals than LA.

I expect the Spurs to spin Kawhi into something good that can put them back in contention for a title.

After the Celtics and 76ers, the Bucks are the only team in the east that I see possibly getting materially better. The Wizards, Raptors, Pacers, Heat and Pistons all feel like 40-50 win teams depending on who has a good season next year. Hornets might be able to squeeze out 45 wins if everything breaks right. But all 6 of these teams are getting older and have cap problems, except the Pacers. The rest of the conference will be lucky to win 35 games, and most of those teams will be in the 20's.

I don't see how LeBron can go to a team via sign & trade, he's seen three teams now end up with decimated rosters based on the 'win now' imperative his presence mandates. If he starts off with a depleted roster its almost sabotage of a franchise's subsequent 5+ years for a possible championship over the next 3. For this reason alone signing as a free agent in LA remains the odds on favorite. I've got the Rockets 2nd as IF he is pissed at GState and really wants to win next year they represent the best chance. Then Philly, then the field.

Likewise for Kawhi if I were betting, I'd bet he stays in San Antonio. We've seen the Cavs and Pacers move big pieces in past two offseasons and a year later they are WORSE off then if they'd lost the player via free agency. Kyrie had another 2 years in Cleveland, the Pacers likely got PG-13 for just one year. Teams are going to give up less b/c Kawhi eroded the Spurs leverage and he's injured. Unless someone comes forward with a young player and 2 good draft picks I think the Spurs will roll the dice and try to bring Kawhi back into the fold like they did with Aldridge. This year has shown that even if they misfire, one season of a superstar might still be better than taking $0.50 on the dollar.

 

[Huskyforlife]

I think Utah could be really good. Donovan is a stud, and I love their front line of Favors and Gobert. I am also a big Ricky Rubio fan. Ingles is the oldest starter at 30, Where did he come from? They do need to upgrade their bench. I am amazed that Quin Snyder has become such a good NBA coach after being a total train wreck at Missouri.

The Trail Blazers are fun to watch, and I like that Shabazz has landed on his feet, but the west is too tough for a team as guard dependent as the Trail Blazers to go too far.

I like the Pelicans a lot. They are probably better without Cousins than with him.

Denver's 3 best players are 20 (Murray), 22 (Jokic) and 23 (Harris). First of all, that front office is doing great work because I would never have expected any of those 3 to be that good, and secondly, they don't need to make a move and this team will get better. They won 46 games in the Western Conference, and they are like a daycare team.

Milsap?

 

[UofCT]

Predictions: Boring off season

1) Lebron ends up staying in Cleveland. Cavs hopefully flip #8 + future post lebron picks for somebody like Kemba.

2) Spurs are not trading KL to Lakers so cross that off your list. I'd play hardball with KL, keep the super max offer on the table for 2018-19 and play him. If he refuses to play then he will miss 2 years in his prime. Good for him.

3) Paul George I think stays in OKC and does not turn down that money. Especially if #1 and #2 occur on my list.

4) Chris Paul signs a super max with Houston and they will ruin their franchise by 2020. Harden bolts in 2020 when he's a free agent.

 

[Rocktheworld]

2) Spurs are not trading KL to Lakers so cross that off your list. I'd play hardball with KL, keep the super max offer on the table for 2018-19 and play him. If he refuses to play then he will miss 2 years in his prime. Good for him.

Heard a decent point made that Kawhi explicitly stating he wants LA forces SA’s hand to send him there for whatever they can get. The argument is that no team will rent him for a year if they know his eyes are dead-set on LA and he’ll just opt out from whatever team he’s traded to after next year, who will end up getting nothing for him.

I think that if that’s the case SA can get Ingraham, the pick, maybe Kuzma too? And then what gets interesting is then who follows Kawhi there.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't see how LeBron can go to a team via sign & trade, he's seen three teams now end up with decimated rosters based on the 'win now' imperative his presence mandates. If he starts off with a depleted roster its almost sabotage of a franchise's subsequent 5+ years for a possible championship over the next 3. For this reason alone signing as a free agent in LA remains the odds on favorite. I've got the Rockets 2nd as IF he is pissed at GState and really wants to win next year they represent the best chance. Then Philly, then the field.

Likewise for Kawhi if I were betting, I'd bet he stays in San Antonio. We've seen the Cavs and Pacers move big pieces in past two offseasons and a year later they are WORSE off then if they'd lost the player via free agency. Kyrie had another 2 years in Cleveland, the Pacers likely got PG-13 for just one year. Teams are going to give up less b/c Kawhi eroded the Spurs leverage and he's injured. Unless someone comes forward with a young player and 2 good draft picks I think the Spurs will roll the dice and try to bring Kawhi back into the fold like they did with Aldridge. This year has shown that even if they misfire, one season of a superstar might still be better than taking $0.50 on the dollar.

Lebron doesn't make the Lakers a title contender by himself. Maybe with Paul George there too, but even then, the West is so tough that the Lakers could win 55 games with Lebron and PG and get knocked out in the first round.

Not sure on your point on the Pacers. They appear to have come out ahead on the PG for Oladipo and Sabonis trade.

 

[UofCT]

Heard a decent point made that Kawhi explicitly stating he wants LA forces SA’s hand to send him there for whatever they can get. The argument is that no team will rent him for a year if they know his eyes are dead-set on LA and he’ll just opt out from whatever team he’s traded to after next year, who will end up getting nothing for him.

I think that if that’s the case SA can get Ingraham, the pick, maybe Kuzma too? And then what gets interesting is then who follows Kawhi there.

Good point. Looks like Rudy Gay opted out too. Might be a sign of Spurs rebuild.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Milsap?

Does it matter whether Milsap is the 3rd or 4th best player on the team? Denver made the playoffs with Milsap missing half the season. The team could be better with a full season of Milsap, which makes Denver that much tougher.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Heard a decent point made that Kawhi explicitly stating he wants LA forces SA’s hand to send him there for whatever they can get. The argument is that no team will rent him for a year if they know his eyes are dead-set on LA and he’ll just opt out from whatever team he’s traded to after next year, who will end up getting nothing for him.

I think that if that’s the case SA can get Ingraham, the pick, maybe Kuzma too? And then what gets interesting is then who follows Kawhi there.

The problem is by eroding the Spurs' leverage Kawhi also made it less likely that they trade him. Lots of historical superstar trades show that if you don't get a massive haul you likely gave a star up for nothing. If the offers from the Lakers stink, Spurs are better off with at least 1 year of Kawhi and using that year to try to convince him to stay via management and super max contract love.

Is there any instance of a guy turning down a super max for less money as a free agent? Teams need to play hardball.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

San Antonio will have leverage if at least 2 teams want Leonard, which is a safe bet.

 

[Rocktheworld]

The problem is by eroding the Spurs' leverage Kawhi also made it less likely that they trade him. Lots of historical superstar trades show that if you don't get a massive haul you likely gave a star up for nothing. If the offers from the Lakers stink, Spurs are better off with at least 1 year of Kawhi and using that year to try to convince him to stay via management and super max contract love.

I don’t think he reduces the chances he is traded at all; he just framed things as “if not LA this season, then after next. Get something for me if you can in the meantime.” Teams outside LA won’t want him, knowing that they will have him for 1 season before he opts out and pursues LA as a free agent. Kawhi has all the leverage as an all-NBA player.

Is there any instance of a guy turning down a super max for less money as a free agent? Teams need to play hardball.

Not sure when the supermax became a thing but KD who certainly is today a candidate did and continues to take a pay cut

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Does Houston return as the favorite in the West? They would have won the West if CP3 hadn't gotten hurt, and I don't think the Cavaliers would have had any more success against the Rockets than they did against the Warriors. Houston has Bird rights on everyone that matters, so while they will go way over the cap, they won't lose anyone important if they don't want to.

 

[UofCT]

"league sources suggested Charlotte's Kemba Walker could be in play for the Cavs."

Cavaliers won't know LeBron James' intentions by draft night, are entertaining trade talk for established vet anyway

 

[gtcam]

Does Houston return as the favorite in the West? They would have won the West if CP3 hadn't gotten hurt, and I don't think the Cavaliers would have had any more success against the Rockets than they did against the Warriors. Houston has Bird rights on everyone that matters, so while they will go way over the cap, they won't lose anyone important if they don't want to.

CP3 doesn't guarantee them the title over GS but I agree that the Cavs weren't built to play with either Houston or GS
Boston, even without KI, would have played the Warriors tighter

 

[UofCT]

I created a group for NBA.COM draft challenge. Should be fun, took me 1 min to fill out picks and sign up.

NBA Draft Challenge

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The least surprising news of the offseason: The Charlotte Hornets' locker room hated Dwight Howard.

 

[traitor71]

Does Houston return as the favorite in the West? They would have won the West if CP3 hadn't gotten hurt, and I don't think the Cavaliers would have had any more success against the Rockets than they did against the Warriors. Houston has Bird rights on everyone that matters, so while they will go way over the cap, they won't lose anyone important if they don't want to.

I don't think you can call them a favorite as long as Golden State is there. I believe that had Paul not gotten hurt, Houston would have won that series, and I believe they would have steamrolled Cleveland. I just think that in addition to being great, the Warriors have some pretty damn good luck as well.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Rumor: Tension between Chris Paul and Rockets over contract

A cloud on the horizon for Houston's 2018-2019 title run: their new owner is a little tight on cash right now.

Houston has Bird Rights on all the key people, but that doesn't do them much good if they can't afford the luxury tax.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Sources: Lakers, Spurs reopen talks on Kawhi

 

[Rocktheworld]

Interesting dynamics forming with LA, Kawhi, PG, and LeBron. LeBron likely doesn’t want to be the first star to arrive there. PG says he likes OKC, then opts out. Does LA try to get PG first, then Bron in free agency, and give up far less than they would to get Kawhi? Is PG and the young kids enough to entice Bron? Who goes there if LA goes all in giving up say Kuzma and Ingraham for Kawhi? Is there any apprehension surrounding Kawhi’s injury and having not been on the floor much in 18 months?

 

[champs99and04]

I get that the Lakers are the Lakers, and they have young talent plus room for two max players. But where did this burning desire to play in LA come from? I don't remember LeBron ever expressing a want to play there in the past. I also don't get why he would want to play with 20 and 21 year olds.

I've enjoyed the NBA without the Lakers. I don't want them to go away forever, but LeBron finishing his prime/career there would feel so corny and beneath him. Philly is so obvious - Simmons and Embiid aren't vets, but they're a lot further along than LA's pieces - that it seems like it would have been reported by now if it was going to happen.

 

[auror]

I get that the Lakers are the Lakers, and they have young talent plus room for two max players. But where did this burning desire to play in LA come from? I don't remember LeBron ever expressing a want to play there in the past. I also don't get why he would want to play with 20 and 21 year olds.

Maybe not the past, but it's been an open secret for the last 15 months or so.

It's more for Hollywood/Space Jam reasons than basketball or tradition ones.