Naismith Late Season 20

[biobioprof]

You may be correct on the names of the 5-person All-Star team as far as the selection process goes. But I believe I could create a better team choosing amongst the unselected scraps. And my team would play defense and rebound as well!

Teaira McCowan
Alannah Smith
Jackie Young
Mikayla Pivec
???

I must have missed something. How do McCowan and Smith count as unselected scraps?

 

[Plebe]

Pivec's overall shooting %age is 55.5% for a guard/wing, and 48.7% from 3-point land. Pretty awesome stats overall if you factor in her rebounding at 8.9 rebounds/game. Not only that, Pivec (and Katie McWilliams) trade-off guarding the best player on the opposing team. Pivec has a motor that never quits.

It may not be fair, but Pivec is stuck in a bit of a no-woman's land in the national awards landscape. Her scoring isn't enough to propel her into the national consciousness, and having great rebounding numbers or a high shooting percentage "for a guard" isn't enough of a headline-grabber either. Slocum, because of her history as NFOY at Maryland, is already in the national consciousness, which in combination with her (slightly) higher scoring average is just enough to put her ahead of Pivec in the watchlist pecking order.

 

[bballnut90]

Tina Charles POY stats: 18.2ppg, 9.5reb, 1.5ast, 1.6blks, 2.2stls, 61%FG, 0/1 3’s, 68% FT.

Pheesa: 18.8ppg, 10reb, 3.6ast, 1.4blks, 1.4stls, 58%FG, 22% 3s (27 attempts), 69% FT

I get Tina was on an undefeated team but to say Pheesa hasn’t had a 1st team caliber year is obsurd. Where would UConn be without her?? UConn is still top 5 & my guess will end up 3-4 ranked at the end of the conference tournaments.

Not a valid comparison at all.

 

[maccca3232]

The changes from the previous Top 25 Mid-Season list are:

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
Kenisha Bell (Minnesota, Big Ten)
Rennia Davis (Tennessee, SEC)
Rhyne Howard (Kentucky, SEC)
Aari McDonald (Arizona, Pac 12)
Jackie Young (Notre Dame, AAC)

 

[Plebe]

Notable omission: Jackie Young

Before I saw this list I would've had her as 2nd team AA.

Is their necessarily a direct correlation between Wooden watch list inclusion and AP All-American selection?

 

[Vowelguy]

Is their necessarily a direct correlation between Wooden watch list inclusion and AP All-American selection?

No idea. Surely not. But they're clearly loosely correlated. Someone who is not on the Wooden 20 is highly unlikely to, say, make an 5-person first team.

 

[ochoopsfan]

The changes from the previous Top 25 Mid-Season list are:

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
Kenisha Bell (Minnesota, Big Ten)
Rennia Davis (Tennessee, SEC)
Rhyne Howard (Kentucky, SEC)
Aari McDonald (Arizona, Pac 12)
Jackie Young (Notre Dame, AAC)

Geez, since the Wooden Top 25 poll, posted above, Aari McDonald of Arizona has averaged 25ppg, 3.5 assists per game and 6.5 rebounds per game. What did she do wrong in the next 7 games to drop off the list?
By the way, 4 of those 7 games were vs Stanford, UO, OSU and ASU.

 

[maccca3232]

Destiny Solcum's performances in Tier 1 games is sub par to say the least.
In 7 games she is averaging 13.6 PPG and 4.4 APG but on 38.4 FG% and 27.6 3FG% (i.e. 43.0 eFG%).

Chennedy Carter's performances in Tier 1 games, while not as bad, are still underwhelming.
In 5 games she is averaging 22.4 PPG but with 4.6 TO on 36.7 FG%, 38.9 3FG% (i.e. 43.9 eFG%).

They would be my first two out and I can only assume they are included as they are the 2 best underclassman.

Also agree I would include Jackie Young over Crystal Dangerfield.

 

[mbr33ct]

So quick to swap out Crystal Dangerfied for Jackie Young. Looking at their cumulative stats (YTD) (see attached) frankly neither one stands head and shoulders above from one other (too close to call as they say).

What are we talking about, 14.6 ppg vs 13.4 ppg? Jackie has a definite advantage over Crystal in Rebounds and Total FG%. Crystal is more of a 3-point shooter than Jackie, comparing only the 2-point% of each, .554 (Crystal) to .571 (Jackie)...if anything these tired eyes say, either both are mentioned in this Naismith 20 or both stay off this list. I don't buy the argument " I would include Jackie over Dangerfiel" theory.

 

[TheFarmFan]

TBH, I feel like the reason why CD is on this list over JY is because CD's teammates facilitate her better, and vice versa; they want her to help facilitate their shots, and that makes her "look the part" of a top PG much more. I often feel like all Arike and Mabrey want from JY is to hand off the ball to them let them take it from there.

For example, CD averages almost 20% more assists per game notwithstanding the fact that ND has made more than 100 more FGs than UConn (1470 vs. 1330) - so 9% of UConn's FGs come off a CD assist, while only 7% of ND's come from a JY assist.

I also think it's hard to have guard who rarely takes shots from outside, which JY rarely does (17 attempts and 6 makes across 22 games). Finally, JY is the fourth leading scorer for ND, which from an optics perspective makes it hard to elevate her to the top 20 in the country.

All that said, I think she's the most underrated part of their team (see how much they collapsed vs. UNC without her), she is substantially underutilized by ND, and I definitely think she's more talented than all but about 10 of the players on this list. I would be really shocked if any of the current ND players has a more successful WNBA career than JY. I simply don't think she's a great fit for her current team, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if she went pro this year, given how much they will lose next season and the fact that she's a consensus top 10 draft pick. You UConn fans may rightfully fret about what next seasons holds for you, but your roster will be no where near as decimated as ND's. MM will be in serious rebuilding mode for the next few seasons.

 

[biobioprof]

Destiny Solcum's performances in Tier 1 games is sub par to say the least.
In 7 games she is averaging 13.6 PPG and 4.4 APG but on 38.4 FG% and 27.6 3FG% (i.e. 43.0 eFG%).

Chennedy Carter's performances in Tier 1 games, while not as bad, are still underwhelming.
In 5 games she is averaging 22.4 PPG but with 4.6 TO on 36.7 FG%, 38.9 3FG% (i.e. 43.9 eFG%).

They would be my first two out and I can only assume they are included as they are the 2 best underclassman.

Also agree I would include Jackie Young over Crystal Dangerfield.

22.4 ppg vs Tier 1 is underwhelming? I don't know how to get the Tier 1 filtered data, so I'd be curious about how this compares to the others on the list. Carter is leading the SEC in scoring.

Having just finished Michael Lewis' book "The Undoing Project", I know that conventional bball stats are far from ideal for comparing player value. But it's not clear to me that basketball advanced stats are as well-developed as they are for baseball. Team games with all the stuff that doesn't show up in the box score are just harder.

My feeling on Pivec and Young and Howard is that they're all excellent players who I don't think are at all obvious as replacements for the players on the list. Regarding the choices for the SEC, I don't have a problem with McCowan, Cunningham, and Carter. Those are the three Gary Blair talks about in terms of which players in the conference dominate the game planning by opposing coaches.

 

[LoTrader]

Destiny Solcum's performances in Tier 1 games is sub par to say the least.
In 7 games she is averaging 13.6 PPG and 4.4 APG but on 38.4 FG% and 27.6 3FG% (i.e. 43.0 eFG%).

Chennedy Carter's performances in Tier 1 games, while not as bad, are still underwhelming.
In 5 games she is averaging 22.4 PPG but with 4.6 TO on 36.7 FG%, 38.9 3FG% (i.e. 43.9 eFG%).

They would be my first two out and I can only assume they are included as they are the 2 best underclassman.

Also agree I would include Jackie Young over Crystal Dangerfield.

Destiny Slocum's potential is off the charts. She is just not a finished product...yet. By this time next year, Rueck will have a 1st team AA on his squad.

 

[ricky]

My money is on Brown over Collier.

I believe Debbie A. called Collier the 1st pick this draft. This should put her top 5.

 

[maccca3232]

22.4 ppg vs Tier 1 is underwhelming? I don't know how to get the Tier 1 filtered data, so I'd be curious about how this compares to the others on the list. Carter is leading the SEC in scoring.

I have tweeted Her Hoops with a suggestion to add a 'Tier' filter (hopefully they will) but presently I calculate in a spreadsheet.

Pasted below are stats from Tier 1 games for all players on the Wooden Late Season list for comparison (sorted by Efficiency rating).

Note: Tier 1 games are defined as:

• Home vs RPI Top 30
• Neutral vs RPI Top 50
• Away vs RPI Top 75

 

[maccca3232]

Also pasted below are stats from Tier 1 games for 2 other high scoring players who are not on the Wooden Late Season list for comparison to Chennedy Carter (sorted by Efficiency rating).

 

[maccca3232]

So quick to swap out Crystal Dangerfied for Jackie Young. Looking at their cumulative stats (YTD) (see attached) frankly neither one stands head and shoulders above from one other (too close to call as they say).

What are we talking about, 14.6 ppg vs 13.4 ppg? Jackie has a definite advantage over Crystal in Rebounds and Total FG%. Crystal is more of a 3-point shooter than Jackie, comparing only the 2-point% of each, .554 (Crystal) to .571 (Jackie)...if anything these tired eyes say, either both are mentioned in this Naismith 20 or both stay off this list. I don't buy the argument " I would include Jackie over Dangerfiel" theory.

View attachment 39231

Pasted below are stats from Tier 1 games for both Dangerfield and Young for comparison (sorted by Efficiency rating).

 

[LoTrader]

Also pasted below are stats from Tier 1 games for 2 other high scoring players who are not on the Wooden Late Season list for comparison to Chennedy Carter (sorted by Efficiency rating).

View attachment 39296

Can you add Oregon State's Mikayla Pivec's stats?

 

[maccca3232]

Can you add Oregon State's Mikayla Pivec's stats?

Stats from Tier 1 games.

• Green = players mentioned in the thread including Pivec.
• Red = players in Top 25 Mid Season list but not in Top 20 Late Season list.

Note: Tier 1 games are defined as:

• Home vs RPI Top 30
• Neutral vs RPI Top 50
• Away vs RPI Top 75

 

[eebmg]

I guess Megan Gustafsons 41 pt 14 Rb gem last night helped.

 

[bbballfan23]

Gustafson is making a charge but has there ever been a POY in WCBA history that has been on a team ranked outside the top 10?

 

[CBus13]

Gustafson is making a charge but has there ever been a POY in WCBA history that has been on a team ranked outside the top 10?

Kelsey Plum won it in the 2016–2017 season and her team finished #12/#11 in the polls. And they lost in the Sweet 16. The Highest rank Washington received that year was 7th in Week 12, but then they lost to #10 Stanford.

 

[bbballfan23]

Kelsey Plum won it in the 2016–2017 season and her team finished #12/#11 in the polls. And they lost in the Sweet 16. The Highest rank Washington received that year was 7th in Week 12, but then they lost to #10 Stanford.

Thanks. Kelsey Plum also got a ton of media coverage all season with her big performances & was known to be the #1 pick all year. She was very entertaining to showcase.

 

[nwhoopfan]

What about Aja Wilson and South Carolina last year? Can't recall if they were a top 10 team or not but they never seemed anything like a title contender.

 

[Plebe]

What about Aja Wilson and South Carolina last year? Can't recall if they were a top 10 team or not but they never seemed anything like a title contender.

They were right around #7 or #8 toward the end of the regular season.

 

[CBus13]

What about Aja Wilson and South Carolina last year? Can't recall if they were a top 10 team or not but they never seemed anything like a title contender.

The lowest they were that season was Number 10 week 11, after losing to Tennessee. They didn't really have any big wins that regular season, their highest ranked win was against #11 Missouri (who beat them previously that season) but they ended up winning the SEC tournament against Mississippi State, . So they ended the season ranked 7th. Not sure if it was justified based on their regular season until they beat Mississippi State, but I think a lot of credit and respect was given to A'ja and Dawn when it came to voting. They lost back to back games against UConn (56–83) and MSU (53–67) and they didn't drop in rankings from Number 7.