Moving forward

[HuskyNan]

in your honest opinion what is the percentage you think we win. I put it at 15% for us to win the game.

Massey says UConn has a 28% chance of winning

 

[packwrap]

I can't imagine that anyone thinks this UCONN team, at its present stage of development, has any chance of beating South Carolina in their home court. We barely beat Creighton.

Notre Dame this year is very impressive. One night they lose to Utah, the next night they beat USC, UConn or TX.

I would think you know this from the men's side, but each game is its own unique story. The UConn men not off to a great start, but can still turn it around and win a title. 10 loss teams can win a title if they get hot at the right time.

Creighton had a good plan. UConn didn't look great, but we still WON THE GAME. That game now has nothing to do with the TN and SC games. (Except maybe to provide some good teaching footage)

 

[mainerhuski]

Can Jana defend Betts? My big question is how will UConn handle a team that has size and that will be answered in part when they play South Carolina. Lots of questions still abound but I think UConn has a good team and has the potential on any night to be unbeatable.

Paige has to have a big game offensively. Sarah can’t be expected to do so (though she may) as she’s going to be busting her to provide a lot of help D against “big girls.”

 

[packwrap]

Paige has to have a big game offensively. Sarah can’t be expected to do so (though she may) as she’s going to be busting her to provide a lot of help D against “big girls.”

Sarah not just providing help, she will be the primary defender against one of the "big girls". Sarah is our forward/center.

 

[visitingcock]

in your honest opinion what is the percentage you think we win. I put it at 15% for us to win the game.

25% on our court.

50/50 at Stoors

 

[Alydar]

The committee denied their own rating system last year in making UConn a 3 seed

I know. They use various reasons for seeding teams. Their rules give the committee chair a lot of latitude and over the years they have altered the importance they give to them. When they used RPI, they often used it as their primary tool. They now say that NET is their primary tool but rarely make it primary.
But I read that every No 1 NET team since it's inception has been a one seed. IMO if your team is good enough your seed doesn't matter. Seeding college basketball is a lot of guesswork. Common opponents? The thing most forget is that it is a measure of an entire season an opposed to how good any team is at the moment, or at least that's what is said.
The only thing about the whole seeding that irks me is that we talk about it for 11+ months and yet when the seeds are announced the interview of the chair lasts 2 minutes and most of the 2 minutes is spent praising the hard work of the committee.

 

[Cuango]

If you watched the LSU v SC game yesterday, it was clear from the outset ( even though SC started slowly) that SC would win. UCONN can be a tough out if every thing is clicking, and that includes superb coaching and use of player matchups. It also requires each player on UCONN to be on their "A: game ( Chen, KK, ASH, the big Three and Aubrey.). We have three superstars, SC has 5. We have 4 outstanding other players, they have 6. We have an emerging fine player at the post. They have three really good players there. The final game this season will be SC v UCLA and SC will win again. I hope I am wrong, but I don't think we are good enough even in the best of circumstances. Unless, of course, we hit 80% from the arc.

There is not a single player on the South Carolina roster I would trade Sarah or Paige for, only one I (might) would trade Azzi for (and that one would be based largely on Freshman vs senior reasoning. Furthermore, I think it’s likely that Azzi makes that a no as well if she starts playing up to her capabilities), and honestly, I’m just not seeing any superstars, much less 5! I’m also not sure who are the six “outstanding other players” vs our 4, and I’m not seeing three “really good“ posts either! I’m in no way denigrating SC’s team! They are obviously bought into Dawn’s system, they play extremely well and hard, and are a true team that sacrifices individual glory for greater success as a team!

They may well beat us, they may well win the title, but if they do, it will be through team play, unrelenting effort and superior conditioning! Dawn herself has repeatedly said there are no WNBA starters on her roster, though I would guess Edwards will soon change her mind on that. This is where I disagree with you, not that they are not favorites to beat us or win the title.

I do also think you are being a little too dismissive of UCLA’s chances if they play again. I too would probably make SC a slight favorite but I certainly don’t think a UCLA victory is out of the question. I’m actually slightly encouraged after watching them (SC) struggle against a deeply flawed LSU team the other day. They are no longer the almost unbeatable powerhouse they were with Cardoso in the post! Very tough? Yes! The thing is, they are vulnerable away from home against really good teams! As I said, they may still win, especially in Columbia, but they are no longer unbeatable on the road!

 

[Alydar]

Uhm, I think this present UConn has “ a chance of beating” us. Even on our court.

Especially after our shooting performance against LSU

True. In 6 weeks? Many UConn fans realized back in October that this would be a developmental season with 4 freshmen and a transfer, along with an expected return of two players who missed the prior season. Back in October I thought that UConn had the most talent in D1 but that the season would be a race between learning and the calendar.
I've thought over a long time that teams win NCAA titles with experienced guards and I think UConn has the best and deepest backcourt in the country. I am certain they have the talent and now it's a matter of improving over the next month.

 

[Cuango]

Without Sarah , we would be a .500 team. But we would still win the Big East.

There is zero chance we would be a .500 team without Sarah! We might have lost a couple more games and all the other games may have been a little closer but .500 is just ridiculous!

 

[WiseWillie]

All valid points but we play SC at SC. Will home team friendly whistles in front of a sold out, boisterous, spirited crowd prevail? Yep. Our post players will have a difficult time staying out of foul trouble. So get ready.

 

[Longtime fan]

There is zero chance we would be a .500 team without Sarah! We might have lost a couple more games and all the other games may have been a little closer but .500 is just ridiculous!

I like to exaggerate to make a point.

 

[Longtime fan]

I think the TN game represents a better test for the SC game than Creighton. SCand TN are similar in speed, length and athleticism, it's just SC is more disciplined and better coached.

I disagree. SC has far better and deeper talent than the Vols.

 

[ERWUC65]

I disagree. SC has far better and deeper talent than the Vols.

Read the post. Did I mention the word 'talent'? Both TN & SC can play 8 -10 and not lose a lot. Did you watch the 4th quarter of the SC-TN game? UConn can match up with anyone when it comes to BB talent. It's the other 3 attributes I indicated that concern me so I was looking to the TN game for those specific comparisons.

 

[Tonyc]

I expect Geno to have a game plan for both games. We have proven we have other scorers besides the Big 3. I hope the refs let them play to a point where nobody is injured. We do have the Big 3 and they shoot at a very high percentage . They need to do that at Tenn and SC. and everybody else needs to pitch in.

 

[Cuango]

The truth is, no one has any idea what is going to happen in these two games. I‘d like to think we will beat Tennessee, if not handily, then at least without too much drama. SC, on the other hand, I have to believe, will be a whole different matter. Their home court is basically a graveyard for visiting teams.

Still, there are scenarios where we win. If we have one of our occasional three point parties, if they have one of their occasional poor shooting games, if we can somehow turn it into a transition game, if our big three go off and get even a little help from the rest of the team, if our defense gets in their head, if Sarah goes absolutely medieval on their behinds, and finally, if we can get a fair shake from the refs! Clearly though, we are underdogs in that game and after watching every good team that played them on their home court, struggle like a big dog, Tennessee is no lock either!

Win or lose though, I’m hoping our girls play well and hard with no injuries Because regardless of the results, they will benefit greatly from these two games! Geno has always brought his teams into the tournament season playing their best ball! I think he will do so again and if we can get on a roll, get a good draw, and catch a few breaks ( well deserved breaks, I would submit) I think we will be a legitimate threat to win #12!

PS. I am a little concerned that Geno may have given up on trying to get Jana ready to play a big part in the post season! He’s just not playing her enough, and when she does play, she’s not down in the post very much. Could it be he’s decided she simply is not going to be ready and therefore is playing other lineups more? Any thoughts?

 

[hookshot]

The truth is, no one has any idea what is going to happen in these two games. I‘d like to think we will beat Tennessee, if not handily, then at least without too much drama. SC, on the other hand, I have to believe, will be a whole different matter. Their home court is basically a graveyard for visiting teams.

Still, there are scenarios where we win. If we have one of our occasional three point parties, if they have one of their occasional poor shooting games, if we can somehow turn it into a transition game, if our big three go off and get even a little help from the rest of the team, if our defense gets in their head, if Sarah goes absolutely medieval on their behinds, and finally, if we can get a fair shake from the refs! Clearly though, we are underdogs in that game and after watching every good team that played them on their home court, struggle like a big dog, Tennessee is no lock either!

Win or lose though, I’m hoping our girls play well and hard with no injuries Because regardless of the results, they will benefit greatly from these two games! Geno has always brought his teams into the tournament season playing their best ball! I think he will do so again and if we can get on a roll, get a good draw, and catch a few breaks ( well deserved breaks, I would submit) I think we will be a legitimate threat to win #12!

PS. I am a little concerned that Geno may have given up on trying to get Jana ready to play a big part in the post season! He’s just not playing her enough, and when she does play, she’s not down in the post very much. Could it be he’s decided she simply is not going to be ready and therefore is playing other lineups more? Any thoughts?

Precious little time is left for further developing players this year, so not surprising if the emphasis now is on firming up the potential role of role players, concentrating on what they have already demonstrated as strengths. Role players can be crucial in certain circumstances and match-ups. It is not hard to imagine the important role Jana can play when facing and defending an elite 8 team with big(s). I trust that all roster options remain in play, as circumstances may dictate, but we know where most of our scoring will come from at this point, so don't expect much further evolution of the offense

 

[PacoSwede]

....
PS. I am a little concerned that Geno may have given up on trying to get Jana ready to play a big part in the post season! He’s just not playing her enough, and when she does play, she’s not down in the post very much. Could it be he’s decided she simply is not going to be ready and therefore is playing other lineups more? Any thoughts?

that's applied to every post of geno's recently. it's clearly what he prefers -- i think it's wrong, but he knows mucho more than me. the players seem to take the blame, however, for carrying out his instructions. that's unfortunate, a bit unfair.

 

[Bone Dog]

Precious little time is left for further developing players this year, so not surprising if the emphasis now is on firming up the potential role of role players, concentrating on what they have already demonstrated as strengths. Role players can be crucial in certain circumstances and match-ups. It is not hard to imagine the important role Jana can play when facing and defending an elite 8 team with big(s). I trust that all roster options remain in play, as circumstances may dictate, but we know where most of our scoring will come from at this point, so don't expect much further evolution of the offense

It really does feel like time is short. 9 games left in the regular season plus a few BET games isn’t a lot. The last time we were in a situation as unsettled as this was Paige’s sophomore season and that one turned out pretty well. So I’m not prepared to count Geno and Paige out.

But I am much less confident this time around. The front court was deeper and bigger that year with Liv Dorka Caroline and Aaliyah, three of whom went on to the W. The backcourt was also deep with Azzi Christyn Nika Evina and Paige, three of whom would also enter the W. Also that team had a core of settled veterans as opposed to this season’s youth movement. Several of the current players will likely play in the W too. But they’re not all as far along that trajectory this season.

 

[Longtime fan]

Read the post. Did I mention the word 'talent'? Both TN & SC can play 8 -10 and not lose a lot. Did you watch the 4th quarter of the SC-TN game? UConn can match up with anyone when it comes to BB talent. It's the other 3 attributes I indicated that concern me so I was looking to the TN game for those specific comparisons.

Sorry. I tend to match terms like "speed and athleticism" with talent. I did not watch the 4th quarter of the SC_TN game because, in my mind, the game was over, and TN never really had a shot of making a comeback run to win the game. I have seen enough of SC winning to gladly turn it off.

 

[Mandoo]

Gotta' agree. UCLA looked meh at best. Other than the big girl, they didn't come close to impressing. Texas just out and out spanked the Terrapins silly, who looked lost the entire night!

Betts will be everybody's nemesis in the tournament. She makes everybody more effective and dangerous. I don't see how we beat them, we have no 5's that can show signs of skill adequate for the enormous task of beating UCLA.