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Monday predictions

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Sonny44 said:
I'd like to know where you get the 25%. Are all records, scores, common opponents, etc., etc., etc. taken into account? Because if all the teams were equal there would be just a 1/16 chance of all four #1's making it.
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Indeed, but they're not equal. I give Stanford a 60% chance to win, ND and UConn 70%, and Baylor 80%. Which equals 23.52% probability.

And no, my probabilities were not especially scientific.
 
alexrgct said:
Indeed, but they're not equal. I give Stanford a 60% chance to win, ND and UConn 70%, and Baylor 80%. Which equals 23.52% probability.

And no, my probabilities were not especially scientific.
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Ok, so highly subjective, but reasonable.
 
alexrgct said:
Indeed, but they're not equal. I give Stanford a 60% chance to win, ND and UConn 70%, and Baylor 80%. Which equals 23.52% probability.

And no, my probabilities were not especially scientific.
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Historical results aren't necessarily scientific either, because just because a coin has landed heads 5 times in a row should not have any factor in what will happen on the 6th toss unless you have a reason to be suspicious of the coin and its flipper. But based on past results, there have been 11 times that all four #1 teams made it to the Elite 8, and only once has the entire quartet gone to the Final Four together. So the the nonscientific but reality based historical odds of it happening in 2012 is 9% based on historical precedents.

In 1989 the #1 seeds faced 3 #2 seeds and a #3 seed when they all caught the FF train. Presumably, the lowest odds for getting 4 #1s in the Final Four is in a case like this year, when 4 #2 seeds are awaiting the top group. There have been three times when the Elite 8 has included 4 #1 seeds and 4 #2 seeds (1988, 2003, 2008), and on all occasions at least one #2 seed advanced, as they won 5 of the 12 games.

As you said, assigning chances of winning and the odds therefrom are guesswork, but history would probably guess the odds to be lower.
 
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vowelguy said:
By the way, I doubt it's Pat's last game.

They've settled into their roles -- Warlick is really HC and Pat is an assistant. Why would she retire from that, and why would they want her to?
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Why?

Because it's not working, and because they won't get any top recruits any more with this situation.
 
I think that a little more time is required before the decision can be made that the Tennessee situation is not working. That could not have been a smooth transition and it has not been in place very long. Getting the Elite Eight is pretty good and who is to say that they don't get to the FF?

After watching UT in the tourney, I cannot imagine that anyone other than Warlick will be the next head coach. UT does not want to make a drastic change in their program and until Pat steps aside I can't see her opinion being that of needing to bring in someone to replace Warlick.
 
I think Vols will play their hearts out and make it a close game. I just don't believe they are committed enough to the defensive end to beat Baylor. 69-61
I'm still not sold on Duke. They are vastly improved offensively. Can't see EW controlling N sisters . Stanford 81-68
Wildcats looked great from 3pt.line against slower Zags. But Huskies can run with them, and press them. In the half court there will be few open looks. Huskies can go big or small. Huskies 75-65
Irish are battle tested against top competition. A veteran team that will not get rattled. Yes, Terapins are physically gifted group. I'm not convinced that terapins can be disciplined anough defensively to stop Irish cuts. I think this game is a battle. If DP stays out of foul trouble they win a close one. I think it's a toss up. Irish too much at the line in the end. 76-71
 
Good point about Peters. She MUST stay out of foul trouble because Achonwa is not quick enough to stick with the Maryland players. She will be a liability on offense and defense. Maryland is very fast on the perimeter and should be able to match up well with the ND guards.

I would like to see MD go to Hawkins more. She is big and physical and seems to have a nice touch from 15 in. She could be a difference maker if Peters has to sit for a while. If you have a player who leads the nation in FG% she should not be 3rd in the team in shots attempted for the season, or 4th like she was against TAMU.
 
speedoo said:
Why?

Because it's not working, and because they won't get any top recruits any more with this situation.
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I don't know that there's enough info to conclude it's 'not working'.

I assume recruits would be scared off by the uncertainty. I think that is now resolved, with Warlick more firmly in place as HC.

But ultimately the issue comes back to PHS - no one is going to force her out. And it seems less likely to me that she would walk away at this point-- basketball is her life.
 
vowelguy said:
I don't know that there's enough info to conclude it's 'not working'.

I assume recruits would be scared off by the uncertainty. I think that is now resolved, with Warlick more firmly in place as HC.

But ultimately the issue comes back to PHS - no one is going to force her out. And it seems less likely to me that she would walk away at this point-- basketball is her life.
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I think that she certainly has a place in the program. It's not as if she has lost total ability to think. Not being close to the situation I don't know how much she adds, but it sounds as if she has a lot of influence in one-on-one coaching. I am sure that she adds incredible inspiration. She knows what it takes to be the head coach and I'm sure the ability to recognize if she cannot be an asset or not.
 
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Wonkster said:
No, more like Notre Dame is an iceberg and Maryland's boat resembles the HMS Titanic.
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LOL!! very appropriate analogy with the 100 yr anniv. of Titanic sinking coming up (April 15th, 2012). It hit the iceberg at 11:40pm on the 14th and sank at 2:20am on the 15th. I'm kind of a Titanic history buff.
 
cardfan said:
LOL!! very appropriate analogy with the 100 yr anniv. of Titanic sinking coming up (April 15th, 2012). It hit the iceberg at 11:40pm on the 14th and sank at 2:20am on the 15th. I'm kind of a Titanic history buff.
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Any prediction of what time MD starts to stink...I mean sink?
 
cardfan said:
LOL!! very appropriate analogy with the 100 yr anniv. of Titanic sinking coming up (April 15th, 2012). It hit the iceberg at 11:40pm on the 14th and sank at 2:20am on the 15th. I'm kind of a Titanic history buff.
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Me too, read evrything I could find on it.
 
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Wonkster said:
No, more like Notre Dame is an iceberg and Maryland's boat resembles the HMS Titanic.
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According to 1fan that would be MD crashing into icebore.
 
I'm not sure that the fuzzy math means anything. If the number ones teams are favored and multiplying the percentages gets you to 23+%, that just means that the answer is irrelevant. It is most likely that all the #1'a will prevail.

On another subject: more than a few times, Kentucky has rolled over when challenged and played with no heart. they have some fine players but I do not see them as even as much a threat as Penn State.
 
MilfordHusky said:
Wow! A lot of you guys are predicting 14-16 point margins. Maybe my crystal ball is a little murky. I think both games tonight will be close for stretches. Maybe a lot of FTs at the end will turn a 5-point lead to a 14-point win, but I think there will be lots of tension. My recommendation to Triad is to have a beer or two ... or more.
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Im still debating on whether or not to watch the game at home, or go to a sports bar to watch it. I get extra nervous/anxious watching these tourney games..... cant really sit still..... do alot of pacing.... and some yelling and screaming. I usually always watch tourney games by myself. But..... I do have a taste for a good burger and chicken wings..... so I kinda want to go out and watch it. I have a few hours to decide.

Actually... the last time I had a beer was the Panthers-Patriots Super Bowl in 2004. And you know how that turned out. :(
 
triaddukefan said:
Im still debating on whether or not to watch the game at home, or go to a sports bar to watch it. I get extra nervous/anxious watching these tourney games..... cant really sit still..... do alot of pacing.... and some yelling and screaming. I usually always watch tourney games by myself. But..... I do have a taste for a good burger and chicken wings..... so I kinda want to go out and watch it. I have a few hours to decide.

Actually... the last time I had a beer was the Panthers-Patriots Super Bowl in 2004. And you know how that turned out. :(
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Wonderfully!!! :D
 
Well I really dont see Stanford losing unless Nneka is sitting on the bench.
I really dont see TN winning unless Griner is sitting on the bench.
ND MD MD trailed in its last game againest a team they shouldve handled. ND is tuff to handle.
I see all 4 number 1 seeds unless key players are in foul trouble or sitting.

UConn by 25+ unless they screw around like they did at the end of the Penn State game.

Baylor by 15+
Stanford by 15+
ND by 20+

There is a huge difference between the number 1 seeds and everybody else.
 
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Tonyc said:
... UConn by 25+ unless they screw around like they did at the end of the Penn State game...
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I hope Geno gave them holy hell for that BS. Penn State wasn't screwing around, they were trying to close the gap, and UConn was playing so stupidly I turned off the TV and went shopping.

I was really PO'ed.
,
 
vowelguy said:
By the way, I doubt it's Pat's last game.

They've settled into their roles -- Warlick is really HC and Pat is an assistant. Why would she retire from that, and why would they want her to?
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Four years no Final Four, for starters.

Uncertainty in recruiting, for another. I don't think Warlick competes with Mitchell, Caldwell, or Staley in the SEC. Or Auriemma and McGraw and VanDerveer. Or, for that matter, with Summitt.

Unfortunately, Pat's situation cannot improve. the only question is the speed at which it deteriorates. I persist in my belief that Pat's son Tyler will be the liaison the Tenessee AD relies on to enable Pat to step down with the dignity (and financial security) she deserves.
 
Wonkster said:
I hope Geno gave them holy hell for that BS. Penn State wasn't screwing around, they were trying to close the gap, and UConn was playing so stupidly I turned off the TV and went shopping.

I was really PO'ed.
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It's only a game! Deep breath in, deep breath out...:p
 
Warlick really had too much pressure on her shoulders as is evident from the snippet of the post game just shown.
 
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