Monday predictions

[Vowelguy]

Undefeated Baylor with Griner and Sims agains the LVs, who have not made the Final Four in 4 years and may be playing in Pat's last game.

By the way, I doubt it's Pat's last game.

They've settled into their roles -- Warlick is really HC and Pat is an assistant. Why would she retire from that, and why would they want her to?

 

[MilfordHusky]

By the way, I doubt it's Pat's last game.

They've settled into their roles -- Warlick is really HC and Pat is an assistant. Why would she retire from that, and why would they want her to?

Do these wins count on Pat's resume??

 

[01Neaggrad02]

To be perfectly honest... I think this is going to be tight game for Baylor. I do think they could lose. But I will go with them winning by less than five. As for Stanford v. Duke. While I believe Duke is capable of winning I would love to see Baylor verse Stanford and the O Sisters. That duo with the support cast at Stanford would be extremely tough for Baylor. I could see them beating Baylor.

UCONN over Kentucky by double digits.

As for Notre Dame v. Maryland. I am going out on a limb and saying Maryland goes to the final four. ND could win by a close margin.... If ND wins by a huge margin, it will be because Novosal and Mallory at camped out at the foul line and the refs fall for their collapsing to the ground foul routine.

 

[Sonny44]

yes, it has happened before- 1989. Happened on the men's side in 2008.

The odds are very much against it. Even now, it's about 25%, but increases with each win by a 1-seed.

I'd like to know where you get the 25%. Are all records, scores, common opponents, etc., etc., etc. taken into account? Because if all the teams were equal there would be just a 1/16 chance of all four #1's making it.

 

[Sonny44]

Likewise. UConn-Kentucky is a matchup of two high energy, high intensity teams. UConn is going to need to play very disciplined, intelligent basketball to make it to Denver. Notre Dame-Maryland features experience vs youth, for one, and a four-guard lineup vs Maryland's length. There's part of me that says, well if UMD had problems with Louisville and A&M, just wait until ND gets a hold of them, but MD certainly has the athletes and size to give Notre Dame problems. Duke will be far and away the best team Stanford has faced since December. Nneka may not have another 35+ game in her, and if she doesn't, can her teammates pick up the slack? And Baylor-Tennessee is going to have a weird vibe to it, one I wouldn't want any part of if I were Baylor. Baylor should win and would win eight times out of 10, but Tennessee is going to fight like mad.

People can complain about the predictability of a chalk draw, but a) I've enjoyed how we've gotten here, and b) it makes for really good matchups the final three rounds.

High energy teams tend to wear down their batteries against us usually in the first half.
We'll beat KY by 20 unless we just start screwing around the last five minutes like last night, but I think Geno set that straight last night.

 

[Sonny44]

.
Can 4 out of 5 ESPN commentators be wrong?

They're calling Maryland over Notre Dame by that vote: http://tinyurl.com/7w2e595
.

I'd like to see it.
Clay vs. Liston!

 

[alexrgct]

I'd like to know where you get the 25%. Are all records, scores, common opponents, etc., etc., etc. taken into account? Because if all the teams were equal there would be just a 1/16 chance of all four #1's making it.

Indeed, but they're not equal. I give Stanford a 60% chance to win, ND and UConn 70%, and Baylor 80%. Which equals 23.52% probability.

And no, my probabilities were not especially scientific.

 

[Wonkster]

I'd like to see it.
Clay vs. Liston!

More like Clay vs listing starboard.
.

 

[Sonny44]

Indeed, but they're not equal. I give Stanford a 60% chance to win, ND and UConn 70%, and Baylor 80%. Which equals 23.52% probability.

And no, my probabilities were not especially scientific.

Ok, so highly subjective, but reasonable.

 

[Sonny44]

More like Clay vs listing starboard.
.

Are you implying he showed up "under the influence"?

 

[DobbsRover2]

Indeed, but they're not equal. I give Stanford a 60% chance to win, ND and UConn 70%, and Baylor 80%. Which equals 23.52% probability.

And no, my probabilities were not especially scientific.

Historical results aren't necessarily scientific either, because just because a coin has landed heads 5 times in a row should not have any factor in what will happen on the 6th toss unless you have a reason to be suspicious of the coin and its flipper. But based on past results, there have been 11 times that all four #1 teams made it to the Elite 8, and only once has the entire quartet gone to the Final Four together. So the the nonscientific but reality based historical odds of it happening in 2012 is 9% based on historical precedents.

In 1989 the #1 seeds faced 3 #2 seeds and a #3 seed when they all caught the FF train. Presumably, the lowest odds for getting 4 #1s in the Final Four is in a case like this year, when 4 #2 seeds are awaiting the top group. There have been three times when the Elite 8 has included 4 #1 seeds and 4 #2 seeds (1988, 2003, 2008), and on all occasions at least one #2 seed advanced, as they won 5 of the 12 games.

As you said, assigning chances of winning and the odds therefrom are guesswork, but history would probably guess the odds to be lower.

 

[speedoo]

By the way, I doubt it's Pat's last game.

They've settled into their roles -- Warlick is really HC and Pat is an assistant. Why would she retire from that, and why would they want her to?

Why?

Because it's not working, and because they won't get any top recruits any more with this situation.

 

[easttexastrash]

I think that a little more time is required before the decision can be made that the Tennessee situation is not working. That could not have been a smooth transition and it has not been in place very long. Getting the Elite Eight is pretty good and who is to say that they don't get to the FF?

After watching UT in the tourney, I cannot imagine that anyone other than Warlick will be the next head coach. UT does not want to make a drastic change in their program and until Pat steps aside I can't see her opinion being that of needing to bring in someone to replace Warlick.

 

[magic]

I think Vols will play their hearts out and make it a close game. I just don't believe they are committed enough to the defensive end to beat Baylor. 69-61
I'm still not sold on Duke. They are vastly improved offensively. Can't see EW controlling N sisters . Stanford 81-68
Wildcats looked great from 3pt.line against slower Zags. But Huskies can run with them, and press them. In the half court there will be few open looks. Huskies can go big or small. Huskies 75-65
Irish are battle tested against top competition. A veteran team that will not get rattled. Yes, Terapins are physically gifted group. I'm not convinced that terapins can be disciplined anough defensively to stop Irish cuts. I think this game is a battle. If DP stays out of foul trouble they win a close one. I think it's a toss up. Irish too much at the line in the end. 76-71

 

[easttexastrash]

Good point about Peters. She MUST stay out of foul trouble because Achonwa is not quick enough to stick with the Maryland players. She will be a liability on offense and defense. Maryland is very fast on the perimeter and should be able to match up well with the ND guards.

I would like to see MD go to Hawkins more. She is big and physical and seems to have a nice touch from 15 in. She could be a difference maker if Peters has to sit for a while. If you have a player who leads the nation in FG% she should not be 3rd in the team in shots attempted for the season, or 4th like she was against TAMU.

 

[Vowelguy]

Why?

Because it's not working, and because they won't get any top recruits any more with this situation.

I don't know that there's enough info to conclude it's 'not working'.

I assume recruits would be scared off by the uncertainty. I think that is now resolved, with Warlick more firmly in place as HC.

But ultimately the issue comes back to PHS - no one is going to force her out. And it seems less likely to me that she would walk away at this point-- basketball is her life.

 

[easttexastrash]

I don't know that there's enough info to conclude it's 'not working'.

I assume recruits would be scared off by the uncertainty. I think that is now resolved, with Warlick more firmly in place as HC.

But ultimately the issue comes back to PHS - no one is going to force her out. And it seems less likely to me that she would walk away at this point-- basketball is her life.

I think that she certainly has a place in the program. It's not as if she has lost total ability to think. Not being close to the situation I don't know how much she adds, but it sounds as if she has a lot of influence in one-on-one coaching. I am sure that she adds incredible inspiration. She knows what it takes to be the head coach and I'm sure the ability to recognize if she cannot be an asset or not.

 

[Wonkster]

I'd like to see it.
Clay vs. Liston!

More like Clay vs listing starboard.

Are you implying he showed up "under the influence"?

No, more like Notre Dame is an iceberg and Maryland's boat resembles the HMS Titanic.
.

 

[cardfan]

No, more like Notre Dame is an iceberg and Maryland's boat resembles the HMS Titanic.
.

LOL!! very appropriate analogy with the 100 yr anniv. of Titanic sinking coming up (April 15th, 2012). It hit the iceberg at 11:40pm on the 14th and sank at 2:20am on the 15th. I'm kind of a Titanic history buff.

 

[easttexastrash]

LOL!! very appropriate analogy with the 100 yr anniv. of Titanic sinking coming up (April 15th, 2012). It hit the iceberg at 11:40pm on the 14th and sank at 2:20am on the 15th. I'm kind of a Titanic history buff.

Any prediction of what time MD starts to stink...I mean sink?

 

[cardfan]

Any prediction of what time MD starts to stink...I mean sink?

I actually have MD beating ND. Just a hunch.

 

[Sonny44]

LOL!! very appropriate analogy with the 100 yr anniv. of Titanic sinking coming up (April 15th, 2012). It hit the iceberg at 11:40pm on the 14th and sank at 2:20am on the 15th. I'm kind of a Titanic history buff.

Me too, read evrything I could find on it.

 

[Sonny44]

I actually have MD beating ND. Just a hunch.

Would be nice, but it's LMM's last chance for a few years at least and she will have them ready.

 

[cardfan]

Me too, read evrything I could find on it.

Cool! If you haven't done so already, get the April edition of National Geographic which features some great new photos and theories how it sank (breaking up at the surface or bottom).
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/

 

[Icebear]

No, more like Notre Dame is an iceberg and Maryland's boat resembles the HMS Titanic.
.

According to 1fan that would be MD crashing into icebore.