Mike on why ND will win Nat. Championship

[pap49cba]

The 8 point difference is also around the margin that Massey and Sagarin have UConn over ND. But the question is, are they more knowledgeable than Mikey D?

Hell yes!!

 

[jsloanjr]

Fun story to read in Feb for a few laughs. UCONN knows now how to beat ND and ND knows it....I just hope that both teams stay healthy until April....My thought is who will step up for UCONN this March madness....MO Jeff, Kiah, Banks, Chong?......I like what Chong is doing...Lets see how she does in Texas and talk next week...If she is a double digit scoring option.....UCONN will be too tough......Bring on March Madness!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[triaddukefan]

I would not bet against S Car after watching them last night. I suspect that they are going to put a hurting on TAMU this weekend.

gonna be hard for South Carolina to pull that off this weekend.

 

[DrewDog85]

If Mikey D. wrote it take to the bank !!! New England's #1 Sportswriter!!!!!

 

[easttexastrash]

gonna be hard for South Carolina to pull that off this weekend.

LOL. I guess it will.

 

[Suebird10fan]

WBBfan1 is either making fun of us, or is writing before eating lunch, or something..

Amen!

 

[tomcat]

IMO ND is a great offensive team (actually better without Diggins) but a so-so defensive team. They have not played any team that is UConn's equal on defense. So.... the way they beat UConn is to get one or two of our key players in foul trouble. And let's face it, with their drive and flop offense they are very good at that. I have no doubt that Muffet now occupies a corner of Geno's brain. Bottom line is if UConn can stay out of foul trouble and MoJet can deal with Loyd I like our chances.

I completely agree. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the game of the season, if it works out that it's played. ND could come in as the oddsmaker's favorite, but you know Muffet will psych her players into believing they're the underdog, no matter what. As someone else mentioned, if KML is back in reasonable shape, that changes everything, but the UConn of right now will have to be very very careful with fouls. If Stef loses serious playing time by being on the bench, it could be a long and disappointing night.

 

[Zorro]

Barring any additional adversity, UConn will probably be around -10 or so with the oddsmakers, who are inclined to be analytical rather than enthusiastic. If it goes lower than that, it will simply be an effort to try to get more bucks bet on the Huskies. And that is assuming that the Irish win out. imho, of course.

 

[Geno-ista]

Mike being Mike - but interestingly he is only interested in offense. And a few stats he seems to miss:
ND is scoring three points a game more than Uconn which is very nice, and they are shooting one full percentage point higher from the field 51.9% to 50.9%. All very impressive - Asst/TO not quite with Uconn at 1.9 and ND 1.4
But of course there are two ends of the court and defensively Notre Dame is not really playing that well.
Points allowed - 60.7 ranked #50 vs. Uconn at #1 13 points fewer per game.
Field goal percentage Defense - ESPN stats doesn't have them ranked at the moment through 24 games but they are at 36.9% through 26 which would put them in the 40s. Uconn #1 at 6.5% points better.
Blocks - ND 4.4, Uconn 8.7 per game
Steals - ND 9.5, Uconn 10.1
ND does have a 1.9 rebounding margin edge vs, Uconn but the bottom line is that while ND is definitely doing slightly better offensively, their defense is no where near Uconn's level and that results in Uconn having a 10.6 ppg better scoring margin.

And while Uconn has accomplished most of that with Morgan and KML on the roster, most of the tougher games on the schedule have been with them inactive or at best working their way back into game shape.
Also worth noting - when they were active, they took minutes and stats away from the other available players. Now that Morgan is out for the season and KML out for the near future, those players get a chance to start/more minutes to accumulate stats. The result last game was a double double for Chong. Who knows what the extra minutes will mean for others in coming games. And while KML healthy plays strong defense, I think the three replacements for her are all better defensive players so while the offense may suffer a little, the defense may actually get stronger.

many great points UC---- but a healthy KML was a monster rebounder. Her Scoring potential, and the way she would draw tough defenders, allowing other huskies a better opportunity on the offensive end. Obviously, our road to win the Final Four got much more difficult with the KML news, on the heels of the Tuck news. I still like our chances, but the refs really have all the power now to make anything they might want to happen- happen! Our offense really suffers without KML and/or Tuck on the floor. We are much much more vulnerable, and not just to Notre Dame.

 

[Geno-ista]

OT: Thanks Cat, I needed that.

One item only discussed in a cursory fashion here is match-ups.
On the Notre Dame side, the player I fear most is the hugely talented Ms Loyd.
A really intuitive, improvisational scorer.
I think our 8th grader keeps her at least in control.
McBride we know can be a killer, but also absolutely (hopefully) controllable when closely guarded (see last semi-final).
Achonwa is a problem. Very good this year at not being in the post…then darting in for a quick pass and layup…
And ND is very good at running that sequence.
I'm sure Geno s aware.
The wild card is that they haven't played against a MoJet led offense.
Viewing last year's semi's shows less dynamic movement; with Mo, the whole runs much more fluidly now.
It will be difficult for ND to prepare for that.
I fancy our chances.

great analysis!

 

[baggerbob]

Regardless of who Notre Dame has, they all remember what happens when Stewie is inspired. Loyd will have nightmares of how many times Stewie appeared of no-where to block or alter her shots. Stewie remembers losses, just like Bill Russell, and doesn't like losing to the same people, when you add in the best Senior tandem in the country ( Stef-Bria ), and the jet ( Moriah ) you have a winner.

 

[watanabe]

Imagine if UConn players were told they were the underdogs going into the game?
UConn blowout!!!

Who is this Mikey guy anyway and how do people let him write this garbage? I mean there must be an editor involved. A nefarious agenda for sure. It's a conspiracy.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Let's not get too cocky here guys and gals. ND has beaten us what 7 of the last 8 meetings? From their perspective, it's doable. We all thought Baylor was Sims and the Four Nobodies that had no chance, and they were able to keep the game pretty tight until late in the 2nd half. In a one game playoff anything could happen. Right now the team is missing some personnel, and if Stewie has an off night, the team has a decent chance of being beat.

So as we are well aware from many discussions here, no team has ever beaten another 4 times in a year. So tell us all again how ND has won 7 of the the last 8 times when they played 4 times during each of the last three years? Nope, it's 6 of the last 8, and then 7 of the last 12, and UConn's won 8 of the last 15.

Ultimately, UConn's got a streak going against ND right now, and it's the one that counted.

 

[Waquoit]

I'm worried. Over 60 replies to this thread and no sign of Mike's sock puppet. I hope nothing is wrong.

 

[Zorro]

I just actually read the article. Throughout, it is poorly thought out and poorly written. But specifically; "The rhythms of mononucleosis are quite subjective". Rhythms? Subjective? I suppose that he is trying to say that recovery trajectories are variable and hard to predict for individual cases, and say it in a quaint and poetic way, but really!

 

[Icebear]

So as we are well aware from many discussions here, no team has ever beaten another 4 times in a year. So tell us all again how ND has won 7 of the the last 8 times when they played 4 times during each of the last three years? Nope, it's 6 of the last 8, and then 7 of the last 12, and UConn's won 8 of the last 15.

Ultimately, UConn's got a streak going against ND right now, and it's the one that counted.

Believe me if that game is played we will hear endlessly about how ND has dominated us for two years. The title game last year will be deeply discounted as part of that. It's just media.

 

[DaddyChoc]

I thought the OP was talking about msf Mike... wouldnt have surprised me one bit!

 

[barbrox]

Bottom line is that ND/Uconn will be the best v the best and one helluva game. KML coming back from mono is going to be a major struggle and puts alot on the remaining healthy players. Can we do it? Yeah, I think so and hopefully our players believe in themselves. I belive both teams have the talent and good coaching to support them, but IMHO Uconn will come through with more HEART !

 

[msf22b]

I thought the OP was talking about msf Mike... wouldnt have surprised me one bit!

Took me a while to figure that out
since I am the OP.
But I never call myself Mike.
But of course, you wouldn't know that.
Anyway, though I appreciate the talent of ND,
It's UConn by 10-15.

 

[HuskyNan]

I'm worried. Over 60 replies to this thread and no sign of Mike's sock puppet. I hope nothing is wrong.

You missed it. It's on page 2 of the thread.

 

[Dickers]

IMHO if I had to choose which team - ND or UCONN - would be the most likely to be upset in the NCAA tournament, I would bet on ND. They have had too many close games that could have been a loss. It is possible that a
physical team, like SC, would give them trouble. Braker and Reimer are foul outs waiting to happen. Combined with a poor shooting night and there you have it. Now UCONN has five players who can score. More room to absorb a bad shooting night from one player. And of course better defense. Against SC, it wouldn't surprise me to see two or three of their bigs foul out.

 

[HuskyNan]

So as we are well aware from many discussions here, no team has ever beaten another 4 times in a year. So tell us all again how ND has won 7 of the the last 8 times when they played 4 times during each of the last three years? Nope, it's 6 of the last 8, and then 7 of the last 12, and UConn's won 8 of the last 15.

And unless the NCAA drastically rewrites some rules, there will be no Skylar Diggins in the game. People have taken a lot of shots at her on this board, many gratuitously IMO, but the woman is a gamer. Stats will never show her effect on the ND wins over UConn.

That said, I agree that ND is the strongest candidate to upset the Huskies. We know there's great talent there, terrific coaching, and mental toughness, all necessary ingredients for a championship. But if POY candidate Stewie, All-American candidate Bria, and Best Center in the Country Stef all show up, I'm not sure ND's defense can get enough stops to beat the Huskies. Lotsa "ifs" but I like UConn's chances.

 

[DobbsRover2]

You missed it. It's on page 2 of the thread.

Oh, c'mon, that can't be real. No one's that brain-addled to actually mean it. Obviously DrDog just forgot to use the sarco icons. Here's the ending he forgot.

In his Engeln piece, Mikey stated that winning at Uconn is "perpetual" (though he always seems to be predicting bad times ahead for the Huskies), but then quotes Engeln as saying it's not realistic to win every game, and she's now in reality and loves it. Cool, but Lauren there are players who are also fine with a reality that involves winning every game.

And Mikey as the BC amnesiac sycophant he is laughingly characterizes the Eagles as the peppy "starting over" team in no-cuss Erik Johnson's second year with everything looking up despite the fact that BC will almost certainly go 3-13 in the ACC, a little drop from Johnson's first year at 5-11 and also well down from the average 5-9.5 average of the undermined and now despised Sylvia Crawley (Mikey refers to her years as the SCAM era) who at least got the once proud BC program into the NIT one year, something Johnson's team won't be doing anytime soon.

But Mikey, he's the best, because he'll eat anything.

 

[UcMiami]

many great points UC---- but a healthy KML was a monster rebounder. Her Scoring potential, and the way she would draw tough defenders, allowing other huskies a better opportunity on the offensive end. Obviously, our road to win the Final Four got much more difficult with the KML news, on the heels of the Tuck news. I still like our chances, but the refs really have all the power now to make anything they might want to happen- happen! Our offense really suffers without KML and/or Tuck on the floor. We are much much more vulnerable, and not just to Notre Dame.

KML is great and I think Tuck will be great before she is done, but what everyone seems to be forgetting is that KML and Tuck 2013-14 has been a train wreck to date. Their stats in the 27 games Uconn has played are:
21 minutes a game, 9.9 ppg shooting .474 (Uconn is shooting as a team .509) with 3.6 rebounds per game, 1.8 assists and 1.0 TOs. Plus 5 total blocks and 16 steals
While everyone will be taking up the 'slack' from their continued absence the three players that will be most effected are Banks, Chong, and Stokes, and their stats to date (while already doing a lot of that) are:
53.4 minutes a game, 14.6 ppg shooting .507 with 10.5 rebounds per game, 4.0 assists and 2.3 TOs. Plus 79 blocks and 58 steals.
On a per minute basis KML/Tuck score a few more points less efficiently, a minor decrease in rebounds and ball handling, and significantly less on defense.
I am not saying Uconn is in any way better without either player - just that they have played so little when truly healthy this year that saying Kaleena is a monster rebounder or a great 3 point shooter based on this year is not really true - she had a couple of very good games in total as did Morgan - the rest of the year it has been left up to the healthy players.

 

[Suebird10fan]

On a different matter, last year UConn and ND met in a semifinal game to decide everything between the two teams for the season. Both teams had 7 players who were in there to get the majority of the minutes.

But inevitably, the team needed to dig deeply into their depth to decide the contest, and unfortunately ND came out on top with 7 minutes for their 8th to 11th players while the Huskies only received 5 minutes from their 8th through 10th players.

This is worrisome, as UConn may only have one player to pick up the 5 minutes, and we must dwell on the sad outcome of last year's game in which UConn only won by 18 because their 8-10 players contributed 0 points versus ND's 8-11 players who poured a plumper goose egg of a 0.

We are dooooooooooooooooooooooooooomed!

I generally favor using the like button instead of reply when you are simply expressing approval. I will make an exception for this fantastically awesome post.