Mike on why ND will win Nat. Championship

[msf22b]

Mike DiMauro has written a provocative column (I thought I was supposed to be the agent provocateur) on UConn's bench limitations and its likely effect on a National Final or even before.

http://www.theday.com/article/20140221/SPORT01/302219926

He then cites scoring statistics to bolster his argument.

His hypothesizes that the big three on each team will cancel each other out (fair enough…certainly possible).

Among the numbers he cites are that Jefferson, Banks and Kiah together average 6.4 points per game and that the Notre Dame next three average 7.7

Am I missing something? The last time I looked, Mo was averaging 10.2 just by her little ole self.
I didn't check the ND actuals (in truth they seem a little low).

But creating such an article with incorrect numbers in a Connecticut paper is too much for me.

And of course he misses the main points, that however good the ND kids are (and they are good to great),
Stewart remains unguardable and the aforementioned Ms Jefferson is the game changer, rapidly taking her place as one of the all-time greats at point.


_______________________
Correction: Ah so: He combined the three together to come up with his number.

 

[WestHartHusk]

Mike is a UConn fan agitator, BC fan-boy and complete hack. Don't give his articles the time of your analysis.

 

[sarals24]

Those statistics are very misleading...I think he took the next four's scoring averages and then averaged them together. Weird. Wouldn't combined total be more relevant?

 

[Wbbfan1]

IMHO, Las Vegas Odds Makers would make ND the favorite over UConn if the game was played today. Now if KML is able to play at 75% or better then the game is a toss up. ND has more scoring options then UConn, but UConn has the better defense. If UConn does play ND, the refs will have a huge impact on who wins the game. If UConn gets into significant foul trouble and Geno has to go to his bench for significant minutes then UConn might be in trouble. Especially if the players sitting on the bench are Stef and Stewie. There's not enough scoring options coming off the bench.

To me the biggest impact on who wins a ND vs UConn match up is how many minutes will KML be able to play and how effective she is. With her, the team can afford to have Stewie or Stef get into foul trouble in the 1st half. Without her, then the team can't afford any foul problems.

Should be an interesting game if it happens. Of course there most likely will be 5 games to be played in the tournament before the teams meet for all the marbles.

 

[UConnCat]

Those statistics are very misleading...I think he took the next four's scoring averages and then averaged them together. Weird. Wouldn't combined total be more relevant?

Plus, there's a 1.3 point difference between the two.

There's no question that not having KML at 100% -- or not at all -- makes UConn less of a favorite or maybe no longer the favorite to win the NC. I have no problem with him making that point; he just doesn't do a good job of it.

 

[pinotbear]

The other thing missing in Mike's evaluation is minutes played. Bare numbers mean very little, unless you know how many minutes it took to amass those numbers.

 

[UConnCat]

Reminder: Almost one year ago to the day DiMauro wrote an equally provocative column that claimed UConn was a pretender and the season had up to that point been more a failure than a success. http://www.the-boneyard.com/threads/dimauros-column.34023/

Last year turned out okay.

 

[Icebear]

Mike is a UConn fan agitator, BC fan-boy and complete hack. Don't give his articles the time of your analysis.

I was about to say, "Who cares? it is Mike DiMauro."

 

[diggerfoot]

Basketball is a team sport, despite fans generally simplifying things through comparing individual match-ups. Of six team STATS for team performance (provided here), Notre Dame was better at two of them last year. This year they are only better at one, rebounding, and overall the difference in team performance has been even greater for UConn this year and remained greater throughout being shorthanded. Also, I would argue the most indicative of all the stats is defensive efficiency; UConn smacks ND in that one.

I have no doubt that UConn is the better team, even minus KML and Tuck completely (which was the case when we beat much of our best competition). Of course you can go into plenty of hypotheticals that lead to a UConn loss, but from an objective, fact-based perspective UConn should beat Notre Dame by double digits if the two were to play right now. A Connecticut journalist attempting to make a case otherwise by using numbers in a way that would make a statistician cringe is precisely what BYers have called it out to be.

Added on edit: Look at the teams listed in order of overall efficiency on the site. STATS might be a useful tool when it comes to the NCAA tournament selection and seeding committee.

 

[reno tony]

IMHO, Las Vegas Odds Makers would make ND the favorite over UConn if the game was played today.

I'd like to get some money down on that game. UCONN as a dog wouldn't last long on the board.

59 TO GO​

 

[reno tony]

Those statistics are very misleading...I think he took the next four's scoring averages and then averaged them together. Weird. Wouldn't combined total be more relevant?

I believe a more relevant stat would be the starting five. The bench won't see much action in this type of game. Banks and Stokes will give good minutes defensively and Banks is a threat to drive and score. Other than that top five there won't be much to worry about except foul trouble. And since UCONN is the least penalized team in the nation, it shouldn't be a consideration.

 

[pap49cba]

And since UCONN is the least penalized team in the nation, it shouldn't be a consideration.

Unfortunately, in a one game scenario that statistic is meaningless.

 

[reno tony]

Unfortunately, in a one game scenario that statistic is meaningless.

This is 100% true, but I was just going with the original author's premise to use stats as the basis for his outcome. But, I will have my fingers crossed.

59 TO GO​

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Earlier this morning I posted on THE SAME TOPIC Mike happened to write this mornings column on! Neither I nor Mike had knowledge of the other! Freaky coincidence! Even though I think UCONN can win I do state some other reasons that ND to spite our obvious better players can use their depth to wind up winning the Finals in a war of attrition! See my UCONN vs NOTRE DAME FUTURE HOOK-UP post.
But my main point in the other post is does UCONN really want to put their 9th Championship in the hands of the worst referees in any sport! The WBB refs are incompetent to decide fouls & violations! That can decide the game NOT the talent of either team!

 

[diggerfoot]

Unfortunately, in a one game scenario that statistic is meaningless.

Not true. Statistics, as manipulated as they might be and meaningless when considering hypotheticals, are useful as predictors. We could say that all of Stewart's stats are meaningless in a one game scenario that we might lose because she hypothetically could be injured for that game, but no one would base a prediction on that. Similarly, stats predict that foul trouble should not lead to a loss, though we can come up with a hypothetical that refutes that.

 

[VAMike23]

I'd like to get some money down on that game. UCONN as a dog wouldn't last long on the board.

59 TO GO

Thank you!

 

[UcMiami]

Mike being Mike - but interestingly he is only interested in offense. And a few stats he seems to miss:
ND is scoring three points a game more than Uconn which is very nice, and they are shooting one full percentage point higher from the field 51.9% to 50.9%. All very impressive - Asst/TO not quite with Uconn at 1.9 and ND 1.4
But of course there are two ends of the court and defensively Notre Dame is not really playing that well.
Points allowed - 60.7 ranked #50 vs. Uconn at #1 13 points fewer per game.
Field goal percentage Defense - ESPN stats doesn't have them ranked at the moment through 24 games but they are at 36.9% through 26 which would put them in the 40s. Uconn #1 at 6.5% points better.
Blocks - ND 4.4, Uconn 8.7 per game
Steals - ND 9.5, Uconn 10.1
ND does have a 1.9 rebounding margin edge vs, Uconn but the bottom line is that while ND is definitely doing slightly better offensively, their defense is no where near Uconn's level and that results in Uconn having a 10.6 ppg better scoring margin.

And while Uconn has accomplished most of that with Morgan and KML on the roster, most of the tougher games on the schedule have been with them inactive or at best working their way back into game shape.
Also worth noting - when they were active, they took minutes and stats away from the other available players. Now that Morgan is out for the season and KML out for the near future, those players get a chance to start/more minutes to accumulate stats. The result last game was a double double for Chong. Who knows what the extra minutes will mean for others in coming games. And while KML healthy plays strong defense, I think the three replacements for her are all better defensive players so while the offense may suffer a little, the defense may actually get stronger.

 

[Kibitzer]

I believe that there is one vital stat that will be the difference-maker should UConn play ND in the NCAA toournament"

Achonwa is 6-3, Stef is 6-5;
Braker is 6-1, Stewie is 6-4; and,
Reimer is 6-3, Stokes is 6-3.
​

Thes numbers, when combined with wingspan measurements, bear on stats for blocks and rebounds. Edge, possibly decisive, to UConn.

 

[Sonny44]

Can't understand how this article warrants so many responses.

 

[baggerbob]

On the big stage in games, the one player who always comes up big is Stewie, in the final four, also in the under 19 championships, when the USA was in trouble. There is no-one on Notre Dame who has shown the ability to stand in the spotlight on the big stage. Stewie isn't like Diana, who lets you know she's the best player on the floor, or like Maya who is so smooth, you realize how great she is. When you see Stewie, there is nothing special, until you see her tip-in a missed shot, steal the ball at halfcourt, drive for a layup, step back , and knock down a three, or come out of no-where and block a layup, then you know she can be great.

 

[Kibitzer]

Can't understand how this article warrants so many responses.

Simple. It is controversial. Stirs the pot.

The standard rule in journalism is that nobody cares about the article entitled, "Dog Bites Man." Readership comes alive when they see, "Man Bites Dog."

 

[watanabe]

For Real! The offensive stats look rally impressive (even if wrong) until you apply them to the other team's defense. Uconn will face a decent defense, but ND will run into a brick wall. I'm not a gambler and that's why I'd take odds against UConn anyday. No risk, big return.

WBBfan1 is either making fun of us, or is writing before eating lunch, or something..

 

[UcMiami]

I believe that there is one vital stat that will be the difference-maker should UConn play ND in the NCAA toournament"

Achonwa is 6-3, Stef is 6-5;
Braker is 6-1, Stewie is 6-4; and,
Reimer is 6-3, Stokes is 6-3.
​

Thes numbers, when combined with wingspan measurements, bear on stats for blocks and rebounds. Edge, possibly decisive, to UConn.

Will agree on blocks and add in shooting percentage, rebounding is less about an inch here or there and more about technique and desire.

 

[ThisJustIn]

While i appreciate Sherm's ref hysteria, it's just that... Hysteria. Have you noticed the number of fouls Uconn's been called for this season? Perhaps you are suggesting, with no apparent basis, that the officials will change their practice come Tourney time? Or that,suddenly, Uconn players will forget all they've been taught and all they've been practicing this season? Of course, it's possible that one player will lose their mind (as has happened in select moments), but that's straight up part of the sport.

As for being "the worst," I'll match your paranoid outrage with any fan base in any sport.

 

[UConnCat]

Mike DiMauro has written a provocative column (I thought I was supposed to be the agent provocateur) on UConn's bench limitations and its likely effect on a National Final or even before.

Don't sell yourself short; you still are. Your thread title mis-states what DiMauro said.