Mike on why ND will win Nat. Championship | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Mike on why ND will win Nat. Championship

Status
Not open for further replies.
Its Team vs Team and Breanna Stewart will not let UConn lose. End of Subject. ND has no answer for her this season. If KML comes back its a blow out.
 
I would not bet against S Car after watching them last night. I suspect that they are going to put a hurting on TAMU this weekend.
 
reno tony said:
First topic, don't bet money you can't afford to loose. So, if you can afford to loose that money and can find that bet.... go for it.
Expand ...

Hey, you can't win if you don't play.
 
I believe ND would be a legitimate threat to UConn winning its 9th NC whether UConn was healthy or not. Fact is , ND is a talented and well-coached team with depth. UConn is a talented and well-coached team without much depth. Therein lies the difference. The question becomes whether UConn , in a one(1) game NC playoff , can overcome that difference. And I believe UConn can overcome that difference if they can be disciplined enough to play a different type game of various zones and slow the game down and use up the clock. We will not be able to run with them the whole game.

If the objective is to win that one game , then I think Geno devises a gameplan that utilizes our strengths (exceptionally talented starting 5) and not expose our weakness( short bench).
 
HGN said:
I believe ND would be a legitimate threat to UConn winning its 9th NC whether UConn was healthy or not. Fact is , ND is a talented and well-coached team with depth. UConn is a talented and well-coached team without much depth. Therein lies the difference. The question becomes whether UConn , in a one(1) game NC playoff , can overcome that difference. And I believe UConn can overcome that difference if they can be disciplined enough to play a different type game of various zones and slow the game down and use up the clock. We will not be able to run with them the whole game.

If the objective is to win that one game , then I think Geno devises a gameplan that utilizes our strengths (exceptionally talented starting 5) and not expose our weakness( short bench).
Expand ...

One sure way for UConn to lose is to play zone against ND. Won't happen unless foul trouble forces Geno to have to protect certain players. UConn will play the way it always plays against top competition. It will play mostly man defense and will get out in transition when it can. Both teams played essentially 7 players last year in the semis and this year both teams will likely play 8, assuming KML is healthy enough to go (which I expect). The amount of minutes the bench players play will largely depend on fouls.
 
.-.
HGN said:
I believe ND would be a legitimate threat to UConn winning its 9th NC whether UConn was healthy or not. Fact is , ND is a talented and well-coached team with depth. UConn is a talented and well-coached team without much depth. Therein lies the difference. The question becomes whether UConn , in a one(1) game NC playoff , can overcome that difference. And I believe UConn can overcome that difference if they can be disciplined enough to play a different type game of various zones and slow the game down and use up the clock. We will not be able to run with them the whole game.

If the objective is to win that one game , then I think Geno devises a gameplan that utilizes our strengths (exceptionally talented starting 5) and not expose our weakness( short bench).
Expand ...

ND goes 7-8 deep against tough teams. Please explain how that is deeper than Uconn who goes 7 deep without KML and 8 deep with her.
 
UConnCat said:
One sure way for UConn to lose is to play zone against ND. Won't happen unless foul trouble forces Geno to have to protect certain players. UConn will play the way it always plays against top competition. It will play mostly man defense and will get out in transition when it can. Both teams played essentially 7 players last year in the semis and this year both teams will likely play 8, assuming KML is healthy enough to go (which I expect). The amount of minutes the bench players play will largely depend on fouls.
Expand ...
UConn plays in a zone pretty frequently when they play the 3 post line-up of Stewart, Dolson, and Stokes.
 
ndmb said:
UConn plays in a zone pretty frequently when they play the 3 post line-up of Stewart, Dolson, and Stokes.
Expand ...

True, but it doesn't play that lineup very often. If Geno would have those 3 on the court playing man one of them would have to guard a shorter/quicker wing. And even with those 3 in a zone, one or two of them have to close out on perimeter shooters which has been a struggle.

I'm not saying Geno won't play any zone; he'll mix things up like he always does but ND has done very well against zone defenses this year.
 
UConnCat said:
True, but it doesn't play that lineup very often. If Geno would have those 3 on the court playing man one of them would have to guard a shorter/quicker wing. And even with those 3 in a zone, one or two of them have to close out on perimeter shooters which has been a struggle.

I'm not saying Geno won't play any zone; he'll mix things up like he always does but ND has done very well against zone defenses this year.
Expand ...
I don't know for sure, but if feels like we're playing it about 5-10 minutes a game (or maybe I'm just tricking myself because I always notice because it's a weird line-up). How much we play it will depend on the injury situation. If KML is out, we'll only have one back-up guard (assuming Banks is healthy) and Stewart will have to shift over sometimes if we ever want to have more than one guard on the bench. That leaves Stewart guarding Lloyd or McBride in a man to man, which probably necessitates a switch to the zone. One of the consequences of a shorter line-up is that we just don't have as many options.

If, on the other hand, KML is in full form when we play ND, I agree that any prolonged period of time in a zone would likely be a bad idea.
 
1. No way is the ND big 3 as good as Stef, Stewie and Big Game Bria.
2. No way are the other ND starters as good as MoJet and whoever starts with her.
3. No way are the ND reserves as good as whoever our bench happens to be that day. BB and Kiah are battle-tested and Saniya is getting better and better.
4. This is all assuming no KML. If she is back at even 70%, it is even more true.
5. Geno has never lost a NC game.
6. Mike is wrong.
 
It's that time of year for Mikey to fan the flamers with some tush blasts, just as back in 2003 he joyfully trumpeted how the Husky season was in "rubble" following their first and only loss on the season to Nova in the BET. Last year he famously buried UConn before the tourney with among other things:

This season has been more failure than success, based on the following: the aforementioned home losses, the alarming regression of freshman Breanna Stewart and the general lack of anything productive in big games from Caroline Doty.

But some among the BY who fawned on him thought he redeemed himself by stating that UConn needed to play better to have any chance at doing well in the NCAA tourney. So we're talking about a real genius here.

Speaking of which, his twitter handle is "BCgenius", and he is both a Beagle grad and a sycophant of Gene D, and he loves to flame the Husky fans by calling them racist, misogynistic, and apathetic. Naturally, his favorite Husky player all-time is now Lauren Engeln.

If the guy had any cells in his head that could deal with numbers or logic or any type of ethical conduct, you might read a sentence or two of his articles for a small factual nugget, but he doesn't and you shouldn't. The one thing he does know is that the Husky BB teams are the only topics that a lot of Day readers will be interested in the next two months, so he will milk the beasts and spit his usual bile in the pail and try to get someone to read his drivel.

Just don't.
 
.-.
On a different matter, last year UConn and ND met in a semifinal game to decide everything between the two teams for the season. Both teams had 7 players who were in there to get the majority of the minutes.

But inevitably, the team needed to dig deeply into their depth to decide the contest, and unfortunately ND came out on top with 7 minutes for their 8th to 11th players while the Huskies only received 5 minutes from their 8th through 10th players.

This is worrisome, as UConn may only have one player to pick up the 5 minutes, and we must dwell on the sad outcome of last year's game in which UConn only won by 18 because their 8-10 players contributed 0 points versus ND's 8-11 players who poured a plumper goose egg of a 0.

We are dooooooooooooooooooooooooooomed!
 
ndmb said:
I don't know for sure, but if feels like we're playing it about 5-10 minutes a game (or maybe I'm just tricking myself because I always notice because it's a weird line-up). How much we play it will depend on the injury situation. If KML is out, we'll only have one back-up guard (assuming Banks is healthy) and Stewart will have to shift over sometimes if we ever want to have more than one guard on the bench. That leaves Stewart guarding Lloyd or McBride in a man to man, which probably necessitates a switch to the zone. One of the consequences of a shorter line-up is that we just don't have as many options.

If, on the other hand, KML is in full form when we play ND, I agree that any prolonged period of time in a zone would likely be a bad idea.
Expand ...

Geno has used the big lineup but it presents problems defensively. Stef, Kiah and Stewie started the 2nd half of the Louisville game and played a little bit of zone but mostly man so as not to give open looks to Shoni. Walz countered by going smaller and for a few possessions Stewie was actually guarding Jude Schimmel. Geno then put KML back in the game. Playing the big lineup and zone is okay against some teams but a real problem against good shooting teams.
 
One thing Mike seems to forget is that UCONN'S defense is light years ahead of Notre Dame. Also does Mike really believe that Lindsay Allen will be able to handle Mo Jefferson? Jefferson may set the all time single game steal record against Allen and Notre Dame.
 
doggydaddy said:
Can someone tell me how they measure the percentage of a player?
Expand ...
From the ground upwards. For example, if KML was 70 inches tall, every 7 inches would be 10% and so on. If you are below the equator they start from the head and go downwards. :D

59 TO GO​
 
Let's not get too cocky here guys and gals. ND has beaten us what 7 of the last 8 meetings? From their perspective, it's doable. We all thought Baylor was Sims and the Four Nobodies that had no chance, and they were able to keep the game pretty tight until late in the 2nd half. In a one game playoff anything could happen. Right now the team is missing some personnel, and if Stewie has an off night, the team has a decent chance of being beat.
 
.-.
IMO ND is a great offensive team (actually better without Diggins) but a so-so defensive team. They have not played any team that is UConn's equal on defense. So.... the way they beat UConn is to get one or two of our key players in foul trouble. And let's face it, with their drive and flop offense they are very good at that. I have no doubt that Muffet now occupies a corner of Geno's brain. Bottom line is if UConn can stay out of foul trouble and MoJet can deal with Loyd I like our chances.
 
UcMiami said:
Mike being Mike - but interestingly he is only interested in offense.
Expand ...
Back in the '60s as a Dodger fan it was frustrating to have Stratomatic baseball games with certain Red Sox fans who only wanted to use the batters' cards for games between the two teams, while I only wanted to use the pitchers' cards.

Indeed, the Huskies are built around their defense, and if you do not devote 50% of your analysis of a UConn match-up with another team, it has little worth. This year's team is just fractions of a point or percent behind the 2009-10 team for the all-time NCAA best in scoring and FG% defense, and they are far ahead of an Irish team that in its last eight games has given up 83 points to MD and 72 to Georgia Tech.

The teams have had three common opponents (PSU, MD, Duke), and interestingly all six games have been away games for the Huskies and Irish. ND scored more than UConn but also gave up far more points. UConn's average margin was 19.3 (75.3 - 56.0) while ND's was 11.3 (84.0 - 72.3).

The 8 point difference is also around the margin that Massey and Sagarin have UConn over ND. But the question is, are they more knowledgeable than Mikey D?
 
DobbsRover2 said:
The 8 point difference is also around the margin that Massey and Sagarin have UConn over ND. But the question is, are they more knowledgeable than Mikey D?
Expand ...
Hell yes!!
 
Fun story to read in Feb for a few laughs. UCONN knows now how to beat ND and ND knows it....I just hope that both teams stay healthy until April....My thought is who will step up for UCONN this March madness....MO Jeff, Kiah, Banks, Chong?......I like what Chong is doing...Lets see how she does in Texas and talk next week...If she is a double digit scoring option.....UCONN will be too tough......Bring on March Madness!!!!!!!!!!!
 
easttexastrash said:
I would not bet against S Car after watching them last night. I suspect that they are going to put a hurting on TAMU this weekend.
Expand ...


gonna be hard for South Carolina to pull that off this weekend. :cool:
 
.-.
pap49cba said:
IMO ND is a great offensive team (actually better without Diggins) but a so-so defensive team. They have not played any team that is UConn's equal on defense. So.... the way they beat UConn is to get one or two of our key players in foul trouble. And let's face it, with their drive and flop offense they are very good at that. I have no doubt that Muffet now occupies a corner of Geno's brain. Bottom line is if UConn can stay out of foul trouble and MoJet can deal with Loyd I like our chances.
Expand ...
I completely agree. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the game of the season, if it works out that it's played. ND could come in as the oddsmaker's favorite, but you know Muffet will psych her players into believing they're the underdog, no matter what. As someone else mentioned, if KML is back in reasonable shape, that changes everything, but the UConn of right now will have to be very very careful with fouls. If Stef loses serious playing time by being on the bench, it could be a long and disappointing night.
 
Barring any additional adversity, UConn will probably be around -10 or so with the oddsmakers, who are inclined to be analytical rather than enthusiastic. If it goes lower than that, it will simply be an effort to try to get more bucks bet on the Huskies. And that is assuming that the Irish win out. imho, of course.
 
UcMiami said:
Mike being Mike - but interestingly he is only interested in offense. And a few stats he seems to miss:
ND is scoring three points a game more than Uconn which is very nice, and they are shooting one full percentage point higher from the field 51.9% to 50.9%. All very impressive - Asst/TO not quite with Uconn at 1.9 and ND 1.4
But of course there are two ends of the court and defensively Notre Dame is not really playing that well.
Points allowed - 60.7 ranked #50 vs. Uconn at #1 13 points fewer per game.
Field goal percentage Defense - ESPN stats doesn't have them ranked at the moment through 24 games but they are at 36.9% through 26 which would put them in the 40s. Uconn #1 at 6.5% points better.
Blocks - ND 4.4, Uconn 8.7 per game
Steals - ND 9.5, Uconn 10.1
ND does have a 1.9 rebounding margin edge vs, Uconn but the bottom line is that while ND is definitely doing slightly better offensively, their defense is no where near Uconn's level and that results in Uconn having a 10.6 ppg better scoring margin.

And while Uconn has accomplished most of that with Morgan and KML on the roster, most of the tougher games on the schedule have been with them inactive or at best working their way back into game shape.
Also worth noting - when they were active, they took minutes and stats away from the other available players. Now that Morgan is out for the season and KML out for the near future, those players get a chance to start/more minutes to accumulate stats. The result last game was a double double for Chong. Who knows what the extra minutes will mean for others in coming games. And while KML healthy plays strong defense, I think the three replacements for her are all better defensive players so while the offense may suffer a little, the defense may actually get stronger.
Expand ...
many great points UC---- but a healthy KML was a monster rebounder. Her Scoring potential, and the way she would draw tough defenders, allowing other huskies a better opportunity on the offensive end. Obviously, our road to win the Final Four got much more difficult with the KML news, on the heels of the Tuck news. I still like our chances, but the refs really have all the power now to make anything they might want to happen- happen! Our offense really suffers without KML and/or Tuck on the floor. We are much much more vulnerable, and not just to Notre Dame.
 
msf22b said:
OT: Thanks Cat, I needed that.

One item only discussed in a cursory fashion here is match-ups.
On the Notre Dame side, the player I fear most is the hugely talented Ms Loyd.
A really intuitive, improvisational scorer.
I think our 8th grader keeps her at least in control.
McBride we know can be a killer, but also absolutely (hopefully) controllable when closely guarded (see last semi-final).
Achonwa is a problem. Very good this year at not being in the post…then darting in for a quick pass and layup…
And ND is very good at running that sequence.
I'm sure Geno s aware.
The wild card is that they haven't played against a MoJet led offense.
Viewing last year's semi's shows less dynamic movement; with Mo, the whole runs much more fluidly now.
It will be difficult for ND to prepare for that.
I fancy our chances.
Expand ...
great analysis!
 
.-.
Status
Not open for further replies.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,529
Messages
4,580,600
Members
10,491
Latest member
7774Forever


Top Bottom