Metrics (3/5)

[tzznandrew]

FWIW, Jerry Palm, who is pretty decent, moved us up to a three, albeit in the South.

I think we're on the 3-line right now, and a win v. Providence likely gets us that last one (barring a tournament run from others).

 

[CTBasketball]

FWIW, Jerry Palm, who is pretty decent, moved us up to a three, albeit in the South.

Odd he has two Mid Ten teams playing each other in the First Four. Invalidates a lot of things with his bracket.

 

[tzznandrew]

What’s funny is going to see the Pac12 standings to find Oregon, albeit how bad they are, is the #4 seed in that conference. It’s a literal cliff after UCLA/Arizona.

We should absolutely be rooting for them to win that tournament. Committee always likes to point to wins vs. teams actually in the tournament for seeding. Also, for the moment they are Q1 (47 in NET).

 

[UCFan1513]

This may be dumb, but a lot of the reason I can’t accept a 4 seed is because it is only one seed ahead of where we were last year, but we are SO MUCH better this year versus last. It feels wrong

 

[shizzle787]

FWIW, Jerry Palm, who is pretty decent, moved us up to a three, albeit in the South.

I would take Palm's bracket today. Path to final four: Hofstra, Missouri, Kansas State, Alabama. We would be favored to get to the Final Four.

 

[tzznandrew]

As far as matchups go, there’s very little difference between being the 2 and 3 seed in the tournament. We’d rather a 3 in the East vs. 2 in the West.

There's usually a drop down from the 14-seed to the 15-seed. Honestly, though, if you're a 2 or 3 seed it shouldn't matter. But still, here are Palm's projected 14 and 15 seeds followed by their KenPom. Furman vs. Asheville is the difference between St. John's and DePaul.

14-Furman (88)
14-Hofstra (91)
14-UC-Irvine (100)
15-Colgate (113)
15-Vermont (118)
15-Eastern Washington (121)
14-Kennesaw St (130)
15-UNC-Asheville (149)

 

[CTBasketball]

There's usually a drop down from the 14-seed to the 15-seed. Honestly, though, if you're a 2 or 3 seed it shouldn't matter. But still, here are Palm's projected 14 and 15 seeds followed by their KenPom. Furman vs. Asheville is the difference between St. John's and DePaul.

14-Furman (88)
14-Hofstra (91)
14-UC-Irvine (100)
15-Colgate (113)
15-Vermont (118)
15-Eastern Washington (121)
14-Kennesaw St (130)
15-UNC-Asheville (149)

Colgate is rated low, but they can make some noise.

 

[JB75]

Eye test, advanced metrics, and resume metrics hopefully will average out to a fair place for us. If we can beat Marquette in the second game hopefully will make it very hard to keep us off the 3 line

I think after last night we are right on edge of 3 line or strongest 4. We beat providence we are a 3. We beat Marquette, you gotta figure we become strongest 3. We win big east we are definitely a 2 seed. I mean , we were a projected 4 seed last Monday and rolled 2 more teams this week. We win Thursday we still stay a 4? No way.

 

[pj]

I think we're a 2 if we win the BET, a 3 or 4 otherwise. We can't have more than one loss from here and I don't think we can slip below the 4 line.

The brackets / NCAA release are somewhat outdated here. Not long ago we had 7 losses and a lot of our competitors for high seeds had 4 or 5 losses. Now a lot of those competitors have lost their way down to us.

Top teams with fewer losses than us: Houston, Alabama, Purdue, UCLA, Kansas, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, Arizona, Marquette, Virginia, Miami. That's 11 teams and if we are put behind all of them, we're #12 and the last 3 seed. Teams with equal or more losses: Tennessee, Texas, Creighton, Baylor, Xavier, Kansas State, Kentucky. Texas A&M, Indiana. I think we're ahead of all of them right now, and even with a loss I don't think 4 can jump us.

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

Read that last year all teams were seeded within 1 of the average between KPI and SOR. Apparently it tracks pretty well going back further than that too.

Right now that has us as the top #4 seed.

NCAA Teamsheet Ranks - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[Jbirdp5]

Tennessee has wins against:

H 2-Alabama
N 7-Kansas
H 10-Texas

And a number of other wins against Top 30ish teams. And no bad losses.

At this point, given the injury and the recent losses, I think we can hop them.

Gonzaga similarly has wins against Alabama, Xavier, Kentucky, St. Mary's. And no bad losses.

If we keep winning, we'll jump both. But that just gets us to the 3-line. 2-line will be much harder.

When we were 14-0 and @shizzle787 was lamenting our OOC, he was mocked. Here we are, though. If Florida, Oklahoma State, and Oregon were what we hoped they'd be (teams ranked in the Top 30ish with real tournament aspirations), we'd be well beyond these two teams. As we would be if we didn't lose the SHU-SJU duo. Oh well.

I’d be content with a 3 seed, which I think is fair. jumping a team like Tennessee which is struggling and has injuries is something the commitee hopefully does. If they just used sos and sor there would be no point in having a committee and they could just use the computers to decide the field.

 

[Jbirdp5]

I think after last night we are right on edge of 3 line or strongest 4. We beat providence we are a 3. We beat Marquette, you gotta figure we become strongest 3. We win big east we are definitely a 2 seed. I mean , we were a projected 4 seed last Monday and rolled 2 more teams this week. We win Thursday we still stay a 4? No way.

If we beat Marquette that should clearly erase any doubt about our seed. I really think getting to that 3 line is huge!

 

[king conn]

Read that last year all teams were seeded within 1 of the average between KPI and SOR. Apparently it tracks pretty well going back further than that too.

Right now that has us as the top #4 seed.

NCAA Teamsheet Ranks - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

Except the average here is 10, which would be a middle 3 seed.

When you say within 1, do you mean 9 or 11, or do you mean 1 seed line?

 

[HeGotGame]

FWIW, Jerry Palm, who is pretty decent, moved us up to a three, albeit in the South.

For those wondering, here is the bracket: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

 

[RedStickHusky]

Well, the metrics are only part. And all the teams projected ahead of us have more, better wins.

It would have been great if Florida, Oregon, and Oklahoma State were closer to being Florida, Oregon, and Oklahoma State rather than just fringe (at best) bubble teams. If those were even on the Iowa State level, we're just naturally up a seed-line.

Right? Those games looked a lot better when we scheduled them and when we played them then they do when the committee gets to looking at them.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Again goes back to scheduling. If the Big East were the #1 league, scheduling like we did OOC this year would have been fine. However, the BE is a distant #3. You need to beef up the OOC schedule more than Big 12 or Big 10 teams to even the overall SOS.

The Big XII was incredible in the OOC, which means that when they beat each other up in conference it "launders" everyone's resume and they end up with 4-5 teams on the top 3 seed lines. Whether they deserve it remains to be seen.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Not our own metrics, but goodness, take a look at Providence.

They're all the way down to 51 in NET, and now falling out of the rankings takes away a significant talking point with the Committee (it's stupid, but they're clearly swayed by the AP poll and would have a hard time leaving out a ranked team).

If we beat them on Thursday, they may actually be sweating it out next Sunday.

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

Except the average here is 10, which would be a middle 3 seed.

When you say within 1, do you mean 9 or 11, or do you mean 1 seed line?

Our KPI is 18 our SOR is 12. Average is 15.

That ranks for 13th overall, or the top 4 seed. Not sure what you’re looking at?

I mean 1 seed line

 

[king conn]

Our KPI is 18 our SOR is 12. Average is 15.

That ranks for 13th overall, or the top 4 seed. Not sure what you’re looking at?

View attachment 84699

I mean 1 seed line

Ok I think you read it wrong.

I read the seeds are average of your resume and your metrics

Metric average is 5, resume average 15, result is average of 10. That's why they laid both together side by side

 

[Hi-Low]

For those wondering, here is the bracket: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

View attachment 84698

If Marquette ends up as the 2 seed in East Region then I agree with Palm that UConn won't get placed as the 3 seed in the East with them, UConn will need to be a 3 seed in another region.

Lunardi still has us as 4 seed in the East. The 3 seed in a region besides the East is preferable to a 4 seed at MSG....I think

Men's Bracketology: The numbers show it, Kansas is the best program in modern college basketball

Twenty-one years of history says Kansas' preseason No. 1 ranking -- and top overall seed designation -- should be a net positive for the Jayhawks.

www.espn.com

 

[husky429]

Our KPI is 18 our SOR is 12. Average is 15.

That ranks for 13th overall, or the top 4 seed. Not sure what you’re looking at?

View attachment 84699

I mean 1 seed line

I am so impressed with ya'll who can follow all these different metrics and seeding simulations etc.

My basketball IQ goes about as deep as "making shots is good." I haven't even heard about half of these metrics.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Not our own metrics, but goodness, take a look at Providence.

They're all the way down to 51 in NET, and now falling out of the rankings takes away a significant talking point with the Committee (it's stupid, but they're clearly swayed by the AP poll and would have a hard time leaving out a ranked team).

If we beat them on Thursday, they may actually be sweating it out next Sunday.

Wow, would never thought of Providence being on the bubble, but with those numbers you are right.

Already heard Hurley is playing back Cooleys comments about our "fans getting it" to the players.

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

Ok I think you read it wrong.

I read the seeds are average of your resume and your metrics

Metric average is 5, resume average 15, result is average of 10. That's why they laid both together side by side

Didn’t read it wrong:

 

[CardiacAndre7]

I haven’t read the entire thread so forgive me if this has already been said, but I look at Kenpom pretty often, and before this games our defensive rating was something like 21st in the country, and after yesterday’s game we moved up to 12th(!!!). That seems like an ENORMOUS movement for just 1 game, no?

 

[UConNick]

Our KPI is 18 our SOR is 12. Average is 15.

That ranks for 13th overall, or the top 4 seed. Not sure what you’re looking at?

View attachment 84699

I mean 1 seed line

What website did you pull this screenshot from? Would love to see a bunch of metrics in one place