Metrics (3/5) | The Boneyard

Metrics (3/5)

Jbirdp5 said:
This is why I don’t get all the projections, our metrics are tremendous and 85% of the bracketolgists had us as a 4 going into last nights game
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It's because the algorithms for these ranking systems take into account margin of victory and margin of loss, but the selection committee doesn't take these things into account very much. UConn has won every game by at least 6 points and 23/24 games by at least 8. UConn also has 3 losses by 3 points or less.
 
Jbirdp5 said:
This is why I don’t get all the projections, our metrics are tremendous and 85% of the bracketolgists had us as a 4 going into last nights game
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Well, the metrics are only part. And all the teams projected ahead of us have more, better wins.

It would have been great if Florida, Oregon, and Oklahoma State were closer to being Florida, Oregon, and Oklahoma State rather than just fringe (at best) bubble teams. If those were even on the Iowa State level, we're just naturally up a seed-line.
 
Sportsman5 said:
It's because the algorithms for these ranking systems take into account margin of victory and margin of loss, but the selection committee doesn't take these things into account very much. UConn has won every game by at least 6 points and 23/24 games by at least 8. UConn also has 3 losses by 3 points or less.
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The committee has all these metrics on their team sheets, I can’t see a legitimate argument for us as a 4 seed based on the totality of our resume
 
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tzznandrew said:
Well, the metrics are only part. And all the teams projected ahead of us have more, better wins.

It would have been great if Florida, Oregon, and Oklahoma State were closer to being Florida, Oregon, and Oklahoma State rather than just fringe (at best) bubble teams. If those were even on the Iowa State level, we're just naturally up a seed-line.
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Tennessee and Gonzaga have resumes much better than ours?
 
CTBasketball said:
SOS and # of quality wins will kick us down a line likely.
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Again goes back to scheduling. If the Big East were the #1 league, scheduling like we did OOC this year would have been fine. However, the BE is a distant #3. You need to beef up the OOC schedule more than Big 12 or Big 10 teams to even the overall SOS.
 
Jbirdp5 said:
This is why I don’t get all the projections, our metrics are tremendous and 85% of the bracketolgists had us as a 4 going into last nights game
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It's because the ones in the OP are predictive metrics, which make sense. On a neutral court we can play with almost any team, and I think we could beat anyone. The other half of the team sheet are resume based metrics like KPI (18) and WAB (13), which have been slowly rising.

I still think we should have been a 4 in the last reveal, but I think it was a little more understandable when those were in the mid to late 20s before that reveal. Now we seem to rightly be in the spot where we're firmly a 4 even with a loss Thursday, and should be able to get a 2 if things break right
 
CTBasketball said:
SOS and # of quality wins will kick us down a line likely.
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Hopefully we win the BET and Alabama exits early from the SEC tourney. Thats our only shot of kicking us back up, I have to believe if it comes down to Bama and UConn, we won the head to head on a neutral floor. Don't know how much weight the committee puts on head to head though.
 
firstnline said:
Hopefully we win the BET and Alabama exits early from the SEC tourney. Thats our only shot of kicking us back up, I have to believe if it comes down to Bama and UConn, we won the head to head on a neutral floor. Don't know how much weight the committee puts on head to head though.
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Bama isn't falling enough where there will be a discussion between us and them.
 
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Edward Sargent said:
The murder and Millers involvement are not going to play well with the NCAA
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The grim reaper is hanging over their heads. The team knows Miller is just as guilty as Miles, but he got booted and Miller didn’t.
 
Jbirdp5 said:
The committee has all these metrics on their team sheets, I can’t see a legitimate argument for us as a 4 seed based on the totality of our resume
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I agree with you that they SHOULD weight things like margin of victory and loss, but it's obvious by our seeding that they don't take them into account very much at all because our seeding is exactly where you would expect it to be solely based on overall record and strength of schedule.

Something like Kenpom probably readjusts predicted win/ loss total based on the algorithms, so all of our wins would stand because none were 1 possession games and of the 3 close losses it probably gives us credit for something like 1.2 wins on average for the 3 games if those games are played out many times through their predictive model. So UConn is something like 25.2 wins to 5.8 losses on average and many teams at the top are at the top because they got lucky in close games. So many teams around UConn in the top 15 probably have a downgraded win total based on the metrics.

Also, the algorithms may take into account the fact that UConn was outshot from the free throw line by a lot in 3 of their losses and otherwise outplayed the other team or played them equally. These anomalies in free throws attempted are definitely not taken into account by the committee, but the metrics based ranking systems may take them into account as a fluke and would give UConn a good chance of winning if the games were played out 100s of times with different ref crews or on a neutral court instead of an away game where refs definitely do get influenced by the home crowd. So this could bump up our win total even more in the eyes of these metrics based rankings.
 
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Jbirdp5 said:
Tennessee and Gonzaga have resumes much better than ours?
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Tennessee has wins against:

H 2-Alabama
N 7-Kansas
H 10-Texas

And a number of other wins against Top 30ish teams. And no bad losses.

At this point, given the injury and the recent losses, I think we can hop them.

Gonzaga similarly has wins against Alabama, Xavier, Kentucky, St. Mary's. And no bad losses.

If we keep winning, we'll jump both. But that just gets us to the 3-line. 2-line will be much harder.

When we were 14-0 and @shizzle787 was lamenting our OOC, he was mocked. Here we are, though. If Florida, Oklahoma State, and Oregon were what we hoped they'd be (teams ranked in the Top 30ish with real tournament aspirations), we'd be well beyond these two teams. As we would be if we didn't lose the SHU-SJU duo. Oh well.
 
navery12 said:
It's because the ones in the OP are predictive metrics, which make sense. On a neutral court we can play with almost any team, and I think we could beat anyone. The other half of the team sheet are resume based metrics like KPI (18) and WAB (13), which have been slowly rising.

I still think we should have been a 4 in the last reveal, but I think it was a little more understandable when those were in the mid to late 20s before that reveal. Now we seem to rightly be in the spot where we're firmly a 4 even with a loss Thursday, and should be able to get a 2 if things break right
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Eye test, advanced metrics, and resume metrics hopefully will average out to a fair place for us. If we can beat Marquette in the second game hopefully will make it very hard to keep us off the 3 line
 
tzznandrew said:
Tennessee has wins against:

H 2-Alabama
N 7-Kansas
H 10-Texas

And a number of other wins against Top 30ish teams. And no bad losses.

At this point, given the injury and the recent losses, I think we can hop them.

Gonzaga similarly has wins against Alabama, Xavier, Kentucky, St. Mary's. And no bad losses.

If we keep winning, we'll jump both. But that just gets us to the 3-line. 2-line will be much harder.

When we were 14-0 and @shizzle787 was lamenting our OOC, he was mocked. Here we are, though. If Florida, Oklahoma State, and Oregon were what we hoped they'd be (teams ranked in the Top 30ish with real tournament aspirations), we'd be well beyond these two teams. As we would be if we didn't lose the SHU-SJU duo. Oh well.
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What’s funny is going to see the Pac12 standings to find Oregon, albeit how bad they are, is the #4 seed in that conference. It’s a literal cliff after UCLA/Arizona.
 
tzznandrew said:
Tennessee has wins against:

H 2-Alabama
N 7-Kansas
H 10-Texas

And a number of other wins against Top 30ish teams. And no bad losses.

At this point, given the injury and the recent losses, I think we can hop them.

Gonzaga similarly has wins against Alabama, Xavier, Kentucky, St. Mary's. And no bad losses.

If we keep winning, we'll jump both. But that just gets us to the 3-line. 2-line will be much harder.

When we were 14-0 and @shizzle787 was lamenting our OOC, he was mocked. Here we are, though. If Florida, Oklahoma State, and Oregon were what we hoped they'd be (teams ranked in the Top 30ish with real tournament aspirations), we'd be well beyond these two teams. As we would be if we didn't lose the SHU-SJU duo. Oh well.
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Again, if we play 7/11 OOC games against high-major programs instead of 5/11, one of the two additional P5 programs would probably be top 50-75 NET at least. Gives us more room for error. Playing Syracuse, Pitt, or BC home and home is a lot better than Stonehill and Delaware State at home, and we can still get 16 home games for contractual purposes. I'm not saying we need to play a murderer's row of 7 P5 opponents but if 3 are top-20 and the rest are filtered throughout the top-150, we will be fine. Also, we should be playing more of the top half of the Ivy league. Recognizable opponents that we should beat at home from a middle of the pack Division 1 league.
 
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YearoftheHusky said:
FWIW, Jerry Palm, who is pretty decent, moved us up to a three, albeit in the South.
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Odd he has two Mid Ten teams playing each other in the First Four. Invalidates a lot of things with his bracket.
 
CTBasketball said:
What’s funny is going to see the Pac12 standings to find Oregon, albeit how bad they are, is the #4 seed in that conference. It’s a literal cliff after UCLA/Arizona.
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We should absolutely be rooting for them to win that tournament. Committee always likes to point to wins vs. teams actually in the tournament for seeding. Also, for the moment they are Q1 (47 in NET).
 
YearoftheHusky said:
FWIW, Jerry Palm, who is pretty decent, moved us up to a three, albeit in the South.
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I would take Palm's bracket today. Path to final four: Hofstra, Missouri, Kansas State, Alabama. We would be favored to get to the Final Four.
 
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