OT: Machado to the Padres 10 Yr/$300M

[intlzncster]

There was another superstar like machado who didn’t always hustle. His name was Manny Ramirez and he worked out ok.

That's fair. It can work. But it's not the norm. And the Sox had such a strong culture as to absorb that. Idk about San Diego. He'll probably be fine.

I'm more interested to see how he responds now that he's gotten the money. And now that he's hitting in Petco.

 

[intlzncster]

if you want to complain about what the red sox spend... you should cry to their ownership - because they dont care to spend more

I'm not complaining in the least. Where'd you see that? I'm explaining why the ownership was calling them the 'Evil Empire'. Because Yanks ownership was driving spending.

Frankly, I think the comments were because the Yankees were forcing the Red Sox to spend more to compete, and that was eating into ownership's profits. And they were unhappy about it.

I could care less who spends the most.

 

[methodology]

Honest question, has any of his former teammates said he he had an attitude problem?

Never. He was a model citizen in the clubhouse and the community. Buck and front office including Brooks Robinson who worked with him spoke highly of hiswork ethic and character.

He had a couple immature acts that Buck spoke to him about but said it wasn't anything to worry about

 

[intlzncster]

Never. He was a model citizen in the clubhouse and the community. Buck and front office including Brooks Robinson who worked with him spoke highly of hiswork ethic and character.

He had a couple immature acts that Buck spoke to him about but said it wasn't anything to worry about

Still young too. Time to mature further.

 

[superjohn]

Of course. They are in the same division so they have to compete directly with that. Why should Oakland whine as much when they aren't?

And who cares if you're in the Top 5 when the other guy is spend 30% more. In the extrema: if you are 2nd in baseball, at $200million, and the other team spends $1 billion, you are going to complain. The absolute value matters.



The fans definitely should have.

Are you being serious?

 

[methodology]

I think it's hilarious people equate him not hustling down line on a routine out to equal he doesn't hustle ever.

 

[intlzncster]

Are you being serious?

Whether you're intending to or not, you're effectively arguing that it doesn't matter if one team spends 30% more for over a decade than another team in the same division. 30% is a lot for the record.

And as I said above, this was more likely an underhanded comment due to bottom line and profits.

 

[superjohn]

You're effectively arguing that it doesn't matter if one team spends 30% more for over a decade than another team in the same division. 30% is a lot for the record.

And as I said above, this was more likely an underhanded comment due to bottom line and profits.

I asked you if you're serious? You think Yankees ownership and Yankees fans should be whining about the Red Sox having a $70 mil. higher payroll than the Yankees this past season?

 

[storrsroars]

Don’t know what you’re talking about, Machado is a top defender at 3b and above average at short. Harper is above average in right field. Maybe when he gets older he’ll shift to left or first, but he’s no David Ortiz.

Let's see...

"Machado is a top defender at 3b"... he was at one time.
2015: 7th of 20 qualifiers in UZR/150, 3rd in DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). That's very good.
2016: 2nd of 18 in UZR/150 and 4th in DRS. Even better than 2015.
2017: 9th of 18 in UZR/150 (dropped from 9.9 to 2.2... losing range!) and 7th of 18 in DRS (dropped from 13 to a mere 6). He fell from very good/excellent to slightly above average.

"above average at short"... in 2018 Machado's defense ranked 22nd out of 22 qualifying shortstops. I suppose you could say that there's nowhere to go but up!

Obviously Manny should be at 3b going forward. And while it's possible 2017 was an aberration, he's two years older, so a return to very good/excellent defense would seem optimistic. But as of right now, "top defender" he is not.

"Harper is above average in right field"... I posted this already, but happy to do an encore showing Harper is pretty much the worst defensive OF in MLB among qualifiers. #57 of 57 qualifiers in UZR/150... meaning he has no range. And 56th of 57 when measured on DRS with an abysmal -26 (saved from the bottom only by Charlie Blackmon's -28, which was half compiled in Coors Field, one of the most spacious CFs in MLB).

Don't know what else to tell you, other than if you're relying on the eye test, might be time to get a new pair of glasses.

 

[intlzncster]

I asked you if you're serious? You think Yankees ownership and Yankees fans should be whining about the Red Sox having a $70 mil. higher payroll than the Yankees this past season?

For one season? Not at all. But imagine if the Red Sox outspent the Yankees by an average of $70 million annually over the course of a decade?

If I'm a Yankees fan, I'd be pissed, given the size of the these teams coffers.

 

[superjohn]

For one season? Not at all. But imagine if the Red Sox outspent the Yankees by an average of $70 million annually over the course of a decade?

If I'm a Yankees fan, I'd be pissed, given the size of the these teams coffers.

As a Red Sox fan you would be pissed at the Yankees? Wouldn't it make more sense to be pissed at your ownership?

 

[intlzncster]

As a Red Sox fan you would be pissed at the Yankees? Wouldn't it make more sense to be pissed at your ownership?

Ah, I see what you're getting at. It'd be both quite frankly. You're own ownership for not keeping up. And then there's the bitterness/jealousy component of fandom, which would make you pissed at the opposition. It's not necessarily logical, but then feeling this way about a bunch of laundry isn't either.

 

[storrsroars]

As a Red Sox fan you would be pissed at the Yankees? Wouldn't it make more sense to be pissed at your ownership?

This is what life is like as a Pirates fan looking up at the Cardinals.

 

[methodology]

Obviously Manny should be at 3b going forward. And while it's possible 2017 was an aberration, he's two years older, so a return to very good/excellent would seem optimistic. But as of right now, "top defender" he is not.

He's 26 not 32 and 3rd base you don't need range to be a great fielder. He's not going to decline ..or continue to decline as you like to say ad nauseam in this thread. He makes plays at 3rd some of the best to ever play couldn't make. His soft hands, arm strength and feel for the game at the hot corner is amazing to watch

 

[Deepster]

There was another superstar like machado who didn’t always hustle. His name was Manny Ramirez and he worked out ok.

Well, to be fair.....he was on steroids.

 

[storrsroars]

He's 26 not 32 and 3rd base you don't need range to be a great fielder. He's not going to decline ..or continue to decline as you like to say ad nauseam in this thread. He makes plays at 3rd some of the best to ever play couldn't make. His soft hands, arm strength and feel for the game at the hot corner is amazing to watch

Talk to me in October. There will be more data by then. You could be right. I could be right. But I'm damned sure the guy from post #186 ain't.

 

[intlzncster]

Well, to be fair.....he was on steroids.

Sure as snow didn't help his speed.

 

[intlzncster]

He's 26 not 32 and 3rd base you don't need range to be a great fielder. He's not going to decline ..or continue to decline as you like to say ad nauseam in this thread. He makes plays at 3rd some of the best to ever play couldn't make. His soft hands, arm strength and feel for the game at the hot corner is amazing to watch

A lot of that is predicated on health. A lot of these contracts are as well...

 

[Towney007]

They've all been built almost exclusively from within? Don' know about all those other teams but that's certainly not the case with the Red Sox.

On the hitting side? Betts? Benintendi? Bradley? Bogaerts? Pedroia? Vasquez? Devers? Martinez was a guy they bought

Sale they traded for and gave up two highly regarded prospects to get him. So the farm system allowed them to get Sale, too. Price they bought. They WILDLY overpaid for Pomeranz and arguably Kimbrell, too. But again - drafting - and prospects are what brought most of those guys in.

Don't get me wrong - they've been buy-heavy in the past and not the best example, but positionally they're almost entirely homegrown.

 

[Towney007]

A lot of that is predicated on health. A lot of these contracts are as well...

Every contract is predicated on health.

 

[superjohn]

On the hitting side? Betts? Benintendi? Bradley? Bogaerts? Pedroia? Vasquez? Devers? Martinez was a guy they bought

Sale they traded for and gave up two highly regarded prospects to get him. So the farm system allowed them to get Sale, too. Price they bought. They WILDLY overpaid for Pomeranz and arguably Kimbrell, too. But again - drafting - and prospects are what brought most of those guys in.

Don't get me wrong - they've been buy-heavy in the past and not the best example, but positionally they're almost entirely homegrown.

Yes on this team, most of the hitting is homegrown but basically all the pitching isn't. Off the top of my head Sale, Price, Eovaldi. Porcello, Brasier, Joe Kelly and Kimbrell. I didn't watch them during the season but that seemed to be their whole rotation in the playoffs minus Barnes.

 

[Husky25]

Again, the Red Sox were always top 5, usually top 2 or 3 in payroll and they were the ones whining. Again, Oakland has a case not the Red Sox. The Yankees payroll was 70 million less than the Red Sox this year, should they have been whining about it?

I believe the Sox were around #8 when they got over the hump in 2003/04. Still single figures, but not top 5.

 

[FlippinCrazy!]

Let's see...

"Machado is a top defender at 3b"... he was at one time.
2015: 7th of 20 qualifiers in UZR/150, 3rd in DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). That's very good.
2016: 2nd of 18 in UZR/150 and 4th in DRS. Even better than 2015.
2017: 9th of 18 in UZR/150 (dropped from 9.9 to 2.2... losing range!) and 7th of 18 in DRS (dropped from 13 to a mere 6). He fell from very good/excellent to slightly above average.

"above average at short"... in 2018 Machado's defense ranked 22nd out of 22 qualifying shortstops. I suppose you could say that there's nowhere to go but up!

Obviously Manny should be at 3b going forward. And while it's possible 2017 was an aberration, he's two years older, so a return to very good/excellent defense would seem optimistic. But as of right now, "top defender" he is not.

"Harper is above average in right field"... I posted this already, but happy to do an encore showing Harper is pretty much the worst defensive OF in MLB among qualifiers. #57 of 57 qualifiers in UZR/150... meaning he has no range. And 56th of 57 when measured on DRS with an abysmal -26 (saved from the bottom only by Charlie Blackmon's -28, which was half compiled in Coors Field, one of the most spacious CFs in MLB).

Don't know what else to tell you, other than if you're relying on the eye test, might be time to get a new pair of glasses.

What I’ll say is that defensive metrics are the least developed stat in baseball. Looking at those lists for shortstop and outfield, it’s laughable where some guys are. Schwarber number 4 in uzr? Alcidis Escobar 18?

Machado has good range and arm, a little error prone at short which is expected for a guy that hasn’t played there for 5 years. Harper has decent range and a good arm. That’s the definition of a right fielder. Maybe he’s not “above average” these days with all the good outfielders, but he’s good enough.

Regardless, these guys aren’t being signed for their gloves.

 

[Husky25]

On the hitting side? Betts? Benintendi? Bradley? Bogaerts? Pedroia? Vasquez? Devers? Martinez was a guy they bought

Sale they traded for and gave up two highly regarded prospects to get him. So the farm system allowed them to get Sale, too. Price they bought. They WILDLY overpaid for Pomeranz and arguably Kimbrell, too. But again - drafting - and prospects are what brought most of those guys in.

Don't get me wrong - they've been buy-heavy in the past and not the best example, but positionally they're almost entirely homegrown.

Kimbrell was acquired via trade.

 

[the Q]

Kimbrell was acquired via trade.

So was Pom.

They were overpays via trade.

 

[Excalibur]

I asked you if you're serious? You think Yankees ownership and Yankees fans should be whining about the Red Sox having a $70 mil. higher payroll than the Yankees this past season?

Plenty of them have brought up this very point, so . . .

 

[Excalibur]

Yes on this team, most of the hitting is homegrown but basically all the pitching isn't. Off the top of my head Sale, Price, Eovaldi. Porcello, Brasier, Joe Kelly and Kimbrell. I didn't watch them during the season but that seemed to be their whole rotation in the playoffs minus Barnes.

The Cherington-era Red Sox were absolutely awful at scouting and developing pitchers.

 

[the Q]

The Cherington-era Red Sox were absolutely awful at scouting and developing pitchers.

theo era wasn’t much better.

He inherited Lester

He did draft papelbon and buchholz.

But it wasn’t much beyond that.

 

[Towney007]

What I’ll say is that defensive metrics are the least developed stat in baseball. Looking at those lists for shortstop and outfield, it’s laughable where some guys are. Schwarber number 4 in uzr? Alcidis Escobar 18?

Machado has good range and arm, a little error prone at short which is expected for a guy that hasn’t played there for 5 years. Harper has decent range and a good arm. That’s the definition of a right fielder. Maybe he’s not “above average” these days with all the good outfielders, but he’s good enough.

Regardless, these guys aren’t being signed for their gloves.

Escobar has been one of the best defensive SS in baseball for a long time, now so I dunno what's silly about that.

I mean Machado is pretty clearly on the absolute downside - a very, very, very good 3B defensively. He was a +81 DRS at 3B, which was the second best at that position. For a frame of reference, Arenado was 1st at +104 DRS and Beltre was 3rd at +56 DRS.

The Orioles moved him back over to SS last year at his request - and it was a mess at first, but the Dodgers did a truck ton of work with him on the analytical side and shaded him to his right a bit more and it worked. He looked great there in LA. That's not too surprising to me though - the Orioles are kinda behind the 8-ball analytically while the Dodgers are one of the best in the sport..

And basically - he hadn't played the position in years. So there's going to be an adjustment period. But even if he's just average there - that literally catapults his value overall - especially if he's fine moving to 3B now and then. It's kinda a young man's position right now.. the only two SS's over the age of 30 are Crawford and Mercer, and they're 30 and 31. Machado is only 26. So maybe he's there for four years then hop scotches back to a position where he's a legitimate dude.

But either way - to me its nuts to say 'oh well he's bad defensively at SS so this deal isn't warranted' - because even if he's average, he's now that much more valuable - AND there's always the fallback of pushing him back to 3B where you basically have one of the top 3 defenders in the position there all of a sudden.

And I dunno - regardless of what anyone thought of him - He came in a little UNDER where he was pegged to go in the preseason. Bowden had him at $310 million. Fangraphs crowdsourcing had him at $256. MLBTR had him at 13/$390 million. Either way, the AAV always cooked out to a little over $30 million.

So to get a guy with his bat and tandem defensive versatility at a position where that's at a premium at 26 with 4-6 years of PRIME production left.. I'd say that's a pretty good bet.

 

[the Q]

Escobar has been one of the best defensive SS in baseball for a long time, now so I dunno what's silly about that.

I mean Machado is pretty clearly on the absolute downside - a very, very, very good 3B defensively. He was a +81 DRS at 3B, which was the second best at that position. For a frame of reference, Arenado was 1st at +104 DRS and Beltre was 3rd at +56 DRS.

The Orioles moved him back over to SS last year at his request - and it was a mess at first, but the Dodgers did a truck ton of work with him on the analytical side and shaded him to his right a bit more and it worked. He looked great there in LA. That's not too surprising to me though - the Orioles are kinda behind the 8-ball analytically while the Dodgers are one of the best in the sport..

And basically - he hadn't played the position in years. So there's going to be an adjustment period. But even if he's just average there - that literally catapults his value overall - especially if he's fine moving to 3B now and then. It's kinda a young man's position right now.. the only two SS's over the age of 30 are Crawford and Mercer, and they're 30 and 31. Machado is only 26. So maybe he's there for four years then hop scotches back to a position where he's a legitimate dude.

But either way - to me its nuts to say 'oh well he's bad defensively at SS so this deal isn't warranted' - because even if he's average, he's now that much more valuable - AND there's always the fallback of pushing him back to 3B where you basically have one of the top 3 defenders in the position there all of a sudden.

And I dunno - regardless of what anyone thought of him - He came in a little UNDER where he was pegged to go in the preseason. Bowden had him at $310 million. Fangraphs crowdsourcing had him at $256. MLBTR had him at 13/$390 million. Either way, the AAV always cooked out to a little over $30 million.

So to get a guy with his bat and tandem defensive versatility at a position where that's at a premium at 26 with 4-6 years of PRIME production left.. I'd say that's a pretty good bet.

I’m playing him at 3b but the positioning part is a great point.

It’s something not always in the players control. Statcast should give us so much more insight into that