Latest (2/12) Bracketology

[Phil]

I probably did not look very closely at the brackets. My working assumption is that the overall seeding will eventually have UConn #1, MS St #2, Baylor #3 and either ND or Louisville #4. Of course the ACC champion could well displace Baylor, but again my working assumption is that if Baylor wins out they will get the #3 overall seed.

I think they deserve the overall 2 seed.

They are better than MS State, and have played a tougher schedule.

 

[easttexastrash]

There are a few points that I believe require consideration here. First, the reason they use the RPI and not Massey or Sagarin is because they do not want margin of victory (MOV) included in the ranking they use, as it would encourage teams to run up scores. Thus we need to use rankings such as RPI or ELO Chess that ignore MOV. I guess you could argue whether or not that's a sound reason, but as of now, that is the methodology employed. Baylor is currently 5th in RPI and 4th in ELO Chess while MOV ratings hold them in the highest regard (Massey 2nd, Sagarin 2nd).

Second, Mulkey KNOWS that they use the RPI and that they will penalize you if you play too many hopelessly overmatched teams (cf Maryland 206-17), but she scheduled her murders' row of Lilliputians anyway. Why? Possibly because teams that were ranked a bit higher can request home-and-homes instead of just playing in Waco. Which leads to...

...Third, Baylor will have played 16/29 (55%) games at home this season (11 road 38%, 2 neutral 7%). Miss. St. is similarly bad: 55%, 31% 17%, as is Louisville: 55%, 45%, 0%. . In contrast UConn's numbers are 41%, 45%, 14%. Notre Dame is 45%, 45%, 10%. Creating a quick metric by adding the % home game to .5 x % neutral games, here are the "most homey" schedules of the top 16 teams in RPI (listed by how homey their schedule is):
61.7 Miss. St.
58.6 Baylor
58.6 Duke
58.1 Oregon
56.9 Tennessee
56.9 Mizzou
55.2 UCLA
55.2 Texas
55.0 Ohio St.
54.8 Louisville
53.4 Maryland
53.3 Stanford
50.0 Notre Dame
50.0 Green Bay
48.3 UConn
48.3 Florida St.

This is one list where you wanted to be ranked low, as it means that you play more games in hostile locations. So not only does Baylor have one of the most home dominant schedules of the top teams, but they also play a lot of very bad teams (see point 2 above). That's a double whammy.

Fourth, even if you argue that only games against top teams matter (as you do), Baylor has played fewer top 50 teams than the other top contenders.
Top 50 opponents (counts all games schedule in regular season)
16 Notre Dame
15 Stanford
15 Oregon
15 UCLA
14 UConn
13 Louisville
13 Tennessee
12 Ohio St.
12 Miss St.
12 Florida St.
11 Duke
11 Texas
10 Maryland
9 Mizzou
8 Baylor
5 Green Bay

The eye test suggests that Baylor is excellent, and woe is the team to have them as their 2-seed (if the Baylor fails to be awarded a 1-seed). But didn't many people feel that way about Maryland last season and that didn't work out well for Maryland. I would be disappointed to have Baylor as Notre Dame's 2-seed, but I still think that the Irish could beat them.

Mulkey scheduled the way she did to bring her team along slowly, which obviously worked. If you watch Baylor I will guarantee you that you do NOT want to be in their region. I truly hope that Baylor is the 2 seed in ND's region. Nothing is a better motivator than disrespect. And it will be fascinating to see how Muffett guards two bigs like Brown and Cox. I think Brown will have career numbers against a rather small ND team. Brown and Cox are a major match-up problem for just about every team.

Notre Dame will have to rely on outside shooting and here are some rather dismal 3-point shooting percentages. Good luck beating Baylor shooting like this.
Mabry 34%
Young 28%
Ogunbwale 35.7%

Baylor has 4 players who are shooting the three as well or better than ND's best 3-point shooter...PLUS Cox, Brown and Cohen in the middle.
Wallace 35.4
Morris 52.6
Landrum 44%
Chou 36%

 

[Plebe]

Mulkey scheduled the way she did to bring her team along slowly, which obviously worked. If you watch Baylor I will guarantee you that you do NOT want to be in their region. I truly hope that Baylor is the 2 seed in ND's region. Nothing is a better motivator than disrespect. And it will be fascinating to see how Muffett guards two bigs like Brown and Cox. I think Brown will have career numbers against a rather small ND team. Brown and Cox are a major match-up problem for just about every team.

Notre Dame will have to rely on outside shooting and here are some rather dismal 3-point shooting percentages. Good luck beating Baylor shooting like this.
Mabry 34%
Young 28%
Ogunbwale 35.7%

Baylor has 4 players who are shooting the three as well or better than ND's best 3-point shooter...PLUS Cox, Brown and Cohen in the middle.
Wallace 35.4
Morris 52.6
Landrum 44%
Chou 36%

After the recent history of the past two years, I would sure be a lot more cautious about talking thusly if I was a Baylor fan.

In each of the past two years, Baylor has looked veeeeeewy scaaaaaawy in romping through the Big 12 schedule, only to die out with a whimper in an Elite Eight upset to a less talented but more composed team.

I don't believe it would be an upset if Baylor were to win. Baylor should win that game, given the matchups. But Baylor should've also beaten Oregon State.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Mulkey scheduled the way she did to bring her team along slowly, which obviously worked. If you watch Baylor I will guarantee you that you do NOT want to be in their region. I truly hope that Baylor is the 2 seed in ND's region. Nothing is a better motivator than disrespect. And it will be fascinating to see how Muffett guards two bigs like Brown and Cox. I think Brown will have career numbers against a rather small ND team. Brown and Cox are a major match-up problem for just about every team.

Notre Dame will have to rely on outside shooting and here are some rather dismal 3-point shooting percentages. Good luck beating Baylor shooting like this.
Mabry 34%
Young 28%
Ogunbwale 35.7%

Baylor has 4 players who are shooting the three as well or better than ND's best 3-point shooter...PLUS Cox, Brown and Cohen in the middle.
Wallace 35.4
Morris 52.6
Landrum 44%
Chou 36%

It's true that Notre Dame hasn't shot the 3-ball very well this season. Baylor's 3-pt. shooting is excellent overall, but a lot of those gaudy numbers occurred vs. that weak OOC schedule. Let's look at the numbers each team produced from 3 during their conference seasons:

Mabrey 37%
Young 40% (but low shot attempts)
Ogunbowale 37%

Overall Team 3-pt in conference 37%

Wallace 29%
Morris 56%
Landrum 34%
Chou 33%

Overall Team 3-pt in conference 33%

So Notre Dame has shot the long ball BETTER than Baylor by 4% (37 vs 33) in conference season whereas Baylor shot the 3-ball much better in the OOC schedule (42% vs 31% for ND). Couldn't part of the difference be attributable to the difference in schedule difficulty?

 

[easttexastrash]

It's true that Notre Dame hasn't shot the 3-ball very well this season. Baylor's 3-pt. shooting is excellent overall, but a lot of those gaudy numbers occurred vs. that weak OOC schedule. Let's look at the numbers each team produced from 3 during their conference seasons:

Mabrey 37%
Young 40% (but low shot attempts)
Ogunbowale 37%

Overall Team 3-pt in conference 37%

Wallace 29%
Morris 56%
Landrum 34%
Chou 33%

Overall Team 3-pt in conference 33%

So Notre Dame has shot the long ball BETTER than Baylor by 4% (37 vs 33) in conference season whereas Baylor shot the 3-ball much better in the OOC schedule (42% vs 31% for ND). Couldn't part of the difference be attributable to the difference in schedule difficulty?

So it’s basically a wash in the three point category and a flood in the post play. This match-up still favors Baylor “bigs” time.

 

[Plebe]

It's true that Notre Dame hasn't shot the 3-ball very well this season. Baylor's 3-pt. shooting is excellent overall, but a lot of those gaudy numbers occurred vs. that weak OOC schedule. Let's look at the numbers each team produced from 3 during their conference seasons:

Mabrey 37%
Young 40% (but low shot attempts)
Ogunbowale 37%

Overall Team 3-pt in conference 37%

Wallace 29%
Morris 56%
Landrum 34%
Chou 33%

Overall Team 3-pt in conference 33%

So Notre Dame has shot the long ball BETTER than Baylor by 4% (37 vs 33) in conference season whereas Baylor shot the 3-ball much better in the OOC schedule (42% vs 31% for ND). Couldn't part of the difference be attributable to the difference in schedule difficulty?

I must say I enjoy it when someone's sophomoric use of stats gets eviscerated well done Choke.

 

[easttexastrash]

It's true that Notre Dame hasn't shot the 3-ball very well this season. Baylor's 3-pt. shooting is excellent overall, but a lot of those gaudy numbers occurred vs. that weak OOC schedule. Let's look at the numbers each team produced from 3 during their conference seasons:

Mabrey 37%
Young 40% (but low shot attempts)
Ogunbowale 37%

Overall Team 3-pt in conference 37%

Wallace 29%
Morris 56%
Landrum 34%
Chou 33%

Overall Team 3-pt in conference 33%

So Notre Dame has shot the long ball BETTER than Baylor by 4% (37 vs 33) in conference season whereas Baylor shot the 3-ball much better in the OOC schedule (42% vs 31% for ND). Couldn't part of the difference be attributable to the difference in schedule difficulty?

Now, let's compare post play.
Brown 20.3 point and 10.1 rebounds per game
Cox 15.0 points, 9.4 rebounds
Cohen 11.3 points and 6.6 rebounds per game

Now you go...

See what I did there. I sucked you in with the comparison of the three-point stats and then wham, I hit you with the post stats.

 

[HGN]

Why are you skeptical? Is it that you do not believe that their resume is presently sufficient for a 1-seed? Or that you think Louisville will beat them in the ACC tournament? The tournament committee has downgraded teams because of injuries (which is why sometimes teams hide injuries or lie about their severity as we approach March), but Notre Dame has arguably played their best ball of the season after they adjusted from their last personnel loss (Lili Thompson). Sure the adjustment came after getting stomped at Louisville, but I'm sure that ND is excited for that rematch.

Choke, you guessed it. After the severe beating UL gave ND I think they will beat them again in the ACC Tournament. Especially if the Tournament is going to be held on a neutral , or non home team , court.

 

[triaddukefan]

If any of yall NOW want to see a ND vs Baylor matchup in the Elite 8.... raise your hand

 

[stwainfan]

I think for Tennessee right now is a #3 seed. That means they would host first and second rounds. I think that's important for this team.

 

[southie]

Even if Notre Dame (#2 RPI) were to lose to Louisville (or FSU) in the ACC tourney, they aren't gonna drop out of the top 4 in RPI, in my opinion, as Louisville is currently at #4 RPI and FSU is at #5 RPI. Yes, they would end up with 3 losses, but all to teams in the Top 5 RPI. Same script if it's Notre Dame who wins out.

If Baylor wins out, beating Texas once and maybe twice, Texas probably stays out of the Top 10 RPI (currently at #11). So, can't really compare a 1 loss Baylor team to a 3 loss Notre Dame or Louisville team. The two ACC teams' resumes are just a lot better in all areas.

For Baylor, they should hope that it is Notre Dame who wins out, and hope Louisville loses prior to the ACC championship.

 

[Phil]

At the moment, Louisville is closer to Oregon in the Massey ratings than they are to Baylor. Even if they win out (assuming Baylor wins out) they will have a weaker overall rating and a weaker strength of schedule. I don't think they would deserve a one rating at the expense of Baylor. If they win out, maybe they get a one seat along with Baylor and Notre Dame with three losses has to get a two seed.

I get that the Notre Dame losses qualify as quality losses, but one was an absolute blowout, and I don't see how you can pick a team that doesn't win their conference ahead of the team that wins the toughest conference in the country and has only a single loss.

If Notre Dame manages to beat Louisville, then selection is much easier. Notre Dame has a strong RPI a strong strength of schedule and wins the conference which should give them the nod over Louisville who should then go to Lexington as a two seat behind Mississippi State.

I get that Baylor's schedule should've been better, but Baylor is playing better now than Mississippi State Notre Dame or Louisville and may be even better than Connecticut. If they don't get a one seed it will be a travesty.

 

[Centerstream]

During the Alabama at Tennessee game that's on the SEC Network now, Debbie Antonelli said that she has TN as a 3 seed in her bracketology but in the Albany region. She thinks the possible UConn/TN would be a good idea.

 

[southie]

At the moment, Louisville is closer to Oregon in the Massey ratings than they are to Baylor.

Hasn't it already been confirmed that Massey is not one of the tools used by the selection committee?

 

[Plebe]

I get that Baylor's schedule should've been better, but Baylor is playing better now than Mississippi State Notre Dame or Louisville and may be even better than Connecticut. If they don't get a one seed it will be a travesty.

You say that now, but how about after they lose a game? They have struggled to put away three different lesser teams in just the past couple weeks.

 

[j66kicker]

During the Alabama at Tennessee game that's on the SEC Network now, Debbie Antonelli said that she has TN as a 3 seed in her bracketology but in the Albany region. She thinks the possible UConn/TN would be a good idea.

If that happens I hope we beat them in all 4 quarters so there is no possible way they can use the Louisville Shuffle to make themselves feel good about it. 116-24 would be about right - total annihilation and humiliation, with TN never scoring double digits in any quarter. And that's still too good for their fans.

 

[cbraarj]

They still had their head coach though....

If not having Kim for that game is your excuse. Maybe Baylor needs new asst. coaches.