Latest (2/12) Bracketology

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#27
I am a little skeptical that ND will garner a #1....But we will see.
ND has two losses, one to UCONN and one a 30+ point blowout to #4 Louisville. Their best wins are over #11 Tennessee and #12 FSU. Baylor has 1 loss to #7 UCLA (without Cox or Mulkey) and a win over #6 Texas, with the chance of beating Texas again next week. But Notre Dame has more quality wins than Baylor.

The committee may have it out for Baylor this season due to the OOC schedule, despite the overall SOS being much better due to playing several top 25 teams in conference. It doesn't really matter to me as I think that Baylor and ND will most likely be in the same region and will have to play each other anyway. Doesn't really matter if they are 1 or 2.
 

southie

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#29
The committee may have it out for Baylor this season due to the OOC schedule, despite the overall SOS being much better due to playing several top 25 teams in conference. It doesn't really matter to me as I think that Baylor and ND will most likely be in the same region and will have to play each other anyway. Doesn't really matter if they are 1 or 2.
No, they don't. Mulkey chose Baylor's non-conference schedule, not the committee.

The Big 12 is actually hurting Baylor (and Texas) more than in year's past. Only Baylor and Texas will be among the Top 16 seeded teams from the Big 12. The ACC and SEC are much deeper at the top. OU comes in at #30 in RPI, OSU is at #44, and WVU at #52. Oklahoma State is a very good team, but they also didn't help themselves or the Big 12 by scheduling very poorly in OOC; same for WVU, and TCU. OU did the best job; unfortunately, too many OOC losses may cost them a tournament bid.

Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Live 2017-2018 Women's College Basketball - WarrenNolan.com

Lots of games to be played still, so anything can happen as team jockey for seeds.
 
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#31
No, they don't. Mulkey chose Baylor's non-conference schedule, not the committee.

The Big 12 is actually hurting Baylor (and Texas) more than in year's past. Only Baylor and Texas will be among the Top 16 seeded teams from the Big 12. The ACC and SEC are much deeper at the top. OU comes in at #30 in RPI, OSU is at #44, and WVU at #52. Oklahoma State is a very good team, but they also didn't help themselves or the Big 12 by scheduling very poorly in OOC; same for WVU, and TCU. OU did the best job; unfortunately, too many OOC losses may cost them a tournament bid.

Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Live 2017-2018 Women's College Basketball - WarrenNolan.com

Lots of games to be played still, so anything can happen as team jockey for seeds.

I can't believe I am about to say this but I kinda agree with Southie.

I think Kim thought the UCLA, Stanford, and Kentucky would be enough for a young team and shorter bench than she is used to . However, I don't think she thought everything would have played out the way it did. Not being present and not having Cox at UCLA, Kentucky being a total wash this season, and Stanford barely being a top 25 team.

Then OKST actually being good helps, but WV would have been a top 16 seed without injury plague. So although Texas is a top 10 ten it's kinda just them and BU. After last several seasons, I won't focus too much on seeding. Just show up and keep winning.
 

southie

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#32
I can't believe I am about to say this but I kinda agree with Southie.

I think Kim thought the UCLA, Stanford, and Kentucky would be enough for a young team and shorter bench than she is used to . However, I don't think she thought everything would have played out the way it did. Not being present and not having Cox at UCLA, Kentucky being a total wash this season, and Stanford barely being a top 25 team.

Then OKST actually being good helps, but WV would have been a top 16 seed without injury plague. So although Texas is a top 10 ten it's kinda just them and BU. After last several seasons, I won't focus too much on seeding. Just show up and keep winning.
I don't know all that goes into determining SOS/RPI, but it could be that Baylor played too many OOC teams with RPI's worse than #200. That hurts tremendously. I'm sure you can look up which opponents fall into that category.

I think there has to be a good "balance" when making that OOC schedule, and part of it has to be avoiding certain teams at the very bottom. I think Texas has a couple of those > #200 RPI teams, too, and I see no benefit whatsoever in scheduling those opponents.
 
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#33
My first thought is, as I've expressed elsewhere, and continue to believe is that Baylor deserves a one seed and Louisville does not (let's revisit this in a few hours).

I put Mississippi State and Lexington as the one seed and Louisville as the two seed. Send Baylor to Kansas City as the one seed.

I get that Charlie is not telling us what he thinks makes sense, he's trying to predict what the NCAA selection committee will do. They dinged Baylor early on but that was early on. Baylor's strength of schedule per Massey is 12th in the nation. That's better than Mississippi State's. I don't see a lot of people running around whining and moaning about how bad the Mississippi State strength of schedule is and why that's going to cost them a one seed. I know, I know, undefeated is undefeated and Mississippi State will get a one seed. I'm fine with that I just think Baylor deserves one as well.
I really don't think the committee uses Massey to judge SOS. They use RPI, flaws and all.

Notre Dame is 5-2 vs. the RPI top 25, and 12-2 vs. the top 50.
Miss St is 6-0 vs. the RPI top 25, and 11-0 vs. the top 50.
Baylor is 2-1 vs. the RPI top 25, and 5-1 vs. the top 50.
 
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#34
It really is a shame that RPI is still emphasized by the committee in any form. It is a horribly misguided system, especially given the nature of women's basketball. At the level we are talking about here, only a team in the top 40 or so has any chance to upset a top 5 team. After that, the result is essentially predetermined. It doesn't matter if your opponent is number 100 or number 300, it will be a blowout either way. The good computer ranking systems take this into account, and don't penalize a team for a blowout over a bad team. The only games which truly matter in nonconference for the elite teams are the few games against other elite teams. All the other games are just there to fill out the schedule, and can essentially be disregarded. Unfortunately, the RPI weights all games equally, so a blowout win over a team with a bad record is tremendously damaging. This makes it possible to "game" the RPI, by playing a lot of middling teams that will finish the season with strong records, but aren't major threats to actually beat you. Given the computer power available to us today, it is said that a pen-and-paper method like RPI is still given any weight at all.

Sorry for the rant, I am a big fan of advanced metrics and can't stand the dinosaur that is the RPI.
 

southie

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#35
I think it will be tough for UConn, ND, MSU, and Louisville not to end up being the four #1 seeds no matter what the teams behind them do.
 
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#38
My initial impression was us having the possibility of playing teams that we played during the season. I was under the impression that the Committee was against that but I guess the geography consideration has impacted that.
If this were the actual bracket, UConn would have the easiest path to the final four. I would also get my wish of seeing Baylor and Mississippi State play each other. :)
 

southie

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#39
Louisville and Notre Dame each have a loss on the road at the #1 overall seed, UConn; that doesn't even register as a negative in the committee's eyes. Louisville didn't even move down one single spot in the RPI rankings with tonight's loss; their non-conference SOS went up.

Louisville and Notre Dame will be co-champs of the strongest RPI conference in the country. As long as neither suffers a loss before the finals of the ACC conference tourney, they will remain #1 seeds, IMO.

Big 12 is currently at #4; could drop behind PAC as it is really close right now.

2017-2018 Women's College Basketball Conference RPI - WarrenNolan.com
 
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#40
Louisville and Notre Dame have each have a loss on the road at the #1 overall seed, UConn; that doesn't even register as a negative in the committee's eyes. Louisville didn't even move down one single spot in the RPI rankings with tonight's loss.

Louisville and Notre Dame will be co-champs of the strongest RPI conference in the country. As long as neither suffers a loss before the finals of the ACC conference tourney, they will remain #1 seeds, IMO.

Big 12 is currently at #4; could drop behind PAC as it is really close right now.

2017-2018 Women's College Basketball Conference RPI - WarrenNolan.com
Ultimately BU and UT both will/have lost the no.1 seeds on their own. BU schedule and actually losing. UT just losing. Had they won against Tennessee, TCU, and BU they would be considered a no.1 seed still. BU didn't have the OOC that Texas had so they can't really even lose 4 games and still be a no.2 seed like Texas currently is. So both just need to accept the seeds they are given, play ball, and win. Just Win 4 games in the tourney and then you can throw that seed out. Then you will be in the FF and it won't matter. Both have FF potential.
 
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#41
ND has two losses, one to UCONN and one a 30+ point blowout to #4 Louisville. Their best wins are over #11 Tennessee and #12 FSU. Baylor has 1 loss to #7 UCLA (without Cox or Mulkey) and a win over #6 Texas, with the chance of beating Texas again next week. But Notre Dame has more quality wins than Baylor.

The committee may have it out for Baylor this season due to the OOC schedule, despite the overall SOS being much better due to playing several top 25 teams in conference. It doesn't really matter to me as I think that Baylor and ND will most likely be in the same region and will have to play each other anyway. Doesn't really matter if they are 1 or 2.[/
ND has two losses, one to UCONN and one a 30+ point blowout to #4 Louisville. Their best wins are over #11 Tennessee and #12 FSU. Baylor has 1 loss to #7 UCLA (without Cox or Mulkey) and a win over #6 Texas, with the chance of beating Texas again next week. But Notre Dame has more quality wins than Baylor.

The committee may have it out for Baylor this season due to the OOC schedule, despite the overall SOS being much better due to playing several top 25 teams in conference. It doesn't really matter to me as I think that Baylor and ND will most likely be in the same region and will have to play each other anyway. Doesn't really matter if they are 1 or 2.
ETT , you make a good point. Committee certainly may punish Baylor for OOC schedule, and rightly so. And being 1 or 2 may not matter. I just think Baylor is a better team and would win a head to head with ND. Baylor's size is a factor against anybody. Especially against a ND team with its best player , and Big, sitting on the bench.
 
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#42
I think it will be tough for UConn, ND, MSU, and Louisville not to end up being the four #1 seeds no matter what the teams behind them do.
I think the 3 teams who might benefit from losing to Uconn are Texas, Notre Dame and maybe Louisville.
 
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#43
I think the 3 teams who might benefit from losing to Uconn are Texas, Notre Dame and maybe Louisville.
IF UCLA wins out (@ OSU, UO, home vs Utah & Colorado) + wins PAC12 tourney, and Notre Dame, Louisville, Texas stumble, then UCLA could very well be a #1 seed.
 
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#45
My first thought is, as I've expressed elsewhere, and continue to believe is that Baylor deserves a one seed and Louisville does not (let's revisit this in a few hours).

I put Mississippi State and Lexington as the one seed and Louisville as the two seed. Send Baylor to Kansas City as the one seed.

I get that Charlie is not telling us what he thinks makes sense, he's trying to predict what the NCAA selection committee will do. They dinged Baylor early on but that was early on. Baylor's strength of schedule per Massey is 12th in the nation. That's better than Mississippi State's. I don't see a lot of people running around whining and moaning about how bad the Mississippi State strength of schedule is and why that's going to cost them a one seed. I know, I know, undefeated is undefeated and Mississippi State will get a one seed. I'm fine with that I just think Baylor deserves one as well.
The basic problem is that as good as Baylor looks by the "eye test" the selection committee has adopted a "show me" attitude regarding scheduling (which I personally agree with). If you are that good, demonstrate it by playing a better schedule: they aren't saying you have to have a UCONN like OOC schedule, but play at least 3 ranked opponents out of conference. Especially since the Big12 (at least this year) is basically TX and Baylor as far as really strong teams go.
 
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#46
The basic problem is that as good as Baylor looks by the "eye test" the selection committee has adopted a "show me" attitude regarding scheduling (which I personally agree with). If you are that good, demonstrate it by playing a better schedule: they aren't saying you have to have a UCONN like OOC schedule, but play at least 3 ranked opponents out of conference. Especially since the Big12 (at least this year) is basically TX and Baylor as far as really strong teams go.
Baylor had Stanford, UCLA and Kentucky, usually three consistent top teams, on the schedule. So there are your three ranked teams. UCLA is currently 7 and Stanford is currently ranked 14th.
 

oldude

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#47
Baylor had Stanford, UCLA and Kentucky, usually three consistent top teams, on the schedule. So there are your three ranked teams. UCLA is currently 7 and Stanford is currently ranked 14th.
I’ll give you Stanford & UCLA, but KY isn’t a top team this season. More to the point, Baylor hasn’t scheduled any top teams from the BIG, SEC, ACC and obviously they have a break from UConn this season.

So if you’re on the committee, and you’re trying trying to gauge how good Baylor is outside of the Big 12, you’ve got a 14 pt loss at UCLA and a 24 pt win over a young Stanford team that fell out of the Top 25 soon thereafter, although the Cardinal have gotten it together since.

That’s not much of an OOC resume.
 
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#48
I’ll give you Stanford & UCLA, but KY isn’t a top team this season. More to the point, Baylor hasn’t scheduled any top teams from the BIG, SEC, ACC and obviously they have a break from UConn this season.

So if you’re on the committee, and you’re trying t
Well they don't get to pick their opponents in the Big 12 SEC Challenge.
 
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#50
Like it has been said. I think initially when scheduled it wasn't bad. UCLA, Stanford, and Kentucky. With a young team she had her own idea of how she wanted to get them ready, which I think was build confidence and challenge them sporadically.
Conference she was expecting UT and WVU to be the top from conference and the both Oklahoma schools to be top 25 or close too.
However, it didn't turn out that way.

They currently only have 8 players that are playing with 2 injured. One out for the year and the starter Chou not sure on return time. I think she had gotten used to depth, but lost that after last season. Next season we will have 13 players on the roster with 9 being freshman and sophomores. I bet the OOC will look better next season.
 


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