Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[huskymedic]

From yesterday but timely discussion:



-> As for Kelly’s proposed 64-team football conference — that sounds neat and tidy, but what incentive do the SEC and Big Ten have to join forces with the less-valued ACC and Big 12? “Every year, we (would) play seven games against the West Coast teams, and then we play the East — Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, West Virginia, Virginia. Then the next year you play the South, while you still play your seven (West Coast) teams.” That’s . . . not an attractive schedule. Fox is paying you guys $65 million a year to play Ohio State and Penn State, not Syracuse and Boston College.

As I’ve written every couple of months for the past five years, when conference consolidation comes, the magic cutline won’t be 64; it will be 32 or less. It will be the very top brands that drive the overwhelming majority of the television value banding together. Especially once the courts inevitably rule that schools must share their revenue with the athletes and/or pay them a salary. Ohio State, with its $250 million in annual athletics revenue, can afford to cut those checks without breaking a sweat. Maryland, whose overall budget is less than half that ($114 million), would have a much tougher time of it. <-

 

[Drew]

From yesterday but timely discussion:

https://twitter.com/TheAthleticCFB/status/1737503374222696463?s=20

-> As for Kelly’s proposed 64-team football conference — that sounds neat and tidy, but what incentive do the SEC and Big Ten have to join forces with the less-valued ACC and Big 12? “Every year, we (would) play seven games against the West Coast teams, and then we play the East — Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, West Virginia, Virginia. Then the next year you play the South, while you still play your seven (West Coast) teams.” That’s . . . not an attractive schedule. Fox is paying you guys $65 million a year to play Ohio State and Penn State, not Syracuse and Boston College.

As I’ve written every couple of months for the past five years, when conference consolidation comes, the magic cutline won’t be 64; it will be 32 or less. It will be the very top brands that drive the overwhelming majority of the television value banding together. Especially once the courts inevitably rule that schools must share their revenue with the athletes and/or pay them a salary. Ohio State, with its $250 million in annual athletics revenue, can afford to cut those checks without breaking a sweat. Maryland, whose overall budget is less than half that ($114 million), would have a much tougher time of it. <-

I love how the writer knows that Maryland is screwed with an athletics budget of $114M but Shizzle still thinks teams like Saint Louis and DePaul are going to be able to play in this new world with budgets 1/4 of that

 

[shizzle787]

I think the Big 12 will survive as the P3 and the addition of FSU will strengthen them even more. Maybe they will add Clemson as well and eventually the other ACC schools listed in a previous post above. And yes, Louisville will survive. The absolute tragedy here was the Big 12 train leaving UConn at the station. There is no longer anywhere to go but down. Only Wake and BC will be left, like OSU and WSU are in the former PAC 12.

Florida State is trying to make more revenue, not less. The Big 12 is a step back revenue-wise.

 

[shizzle787]

I love how the writer knows that Maryland is screwed with an athletics budget of $114M but Shizzle still thinks teams like Saint Louis and DePaul are going to be able to play in this new world with budgets 1/4 of that

They are going to pay their athletes (after they get to the minimum number of sports) as close to minimum wage as possible. They will afford it. Will they compete? No. Will they try? Yes.

 

[Vowelguy]

Working through third parties so there is no direct contact between the schools and conferences.

There was no reason for the B10 to collude with anyone. They got UCLA and USC.

After that the BiG didn't care. They took Ore/Wash, but that was a borderline call, not some awesome prize they were waiting to be available.

And if they really wanted them, they would've offered them before Colorado bolted. The BiG needed nothing from the B12.

The B12 was the big winner of the PAC collapsing. It got programs that added value, and it got one less competitor to fight for the remaining scraps not taken by BiG/SEC.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

Hard pass on joining a conference called the new ACC which is mostly the old AAC. It's not worth us damaging the basketball brand to chase football in a glorified G5 league. As painful as it is for some to hear, UConn as an institutional whole is better off in a thriving Big East with independent football than it would be in a watered down ACC. Read Mike Anthony's piece today about the demand for basketball tickets and that will tell you most of what you need to know here.

This is ridiculous. Even if FSU and Clemson leave, we aren't sure who will remain, and the ACC may still include some basketball powerhouses. There are only a few landing spots for teams leaving the ACC and there are simply not that many available spots in other conferences.

 

[GoConn]

I think the report saying the FSU could join the Big 12 is simply smoke. They want B1G or SEC, nothing else.

 

[BigTenFan]

I hear that the ACC will offer Seton Hall a spot if FSU leaves.

If that doesn't work -they will extend and offer to New Canaan HS

 

[Vowelguy]

This is ridiculous. Even if FSU and Clemson leave, we aren't sure who will remain, and the ACC may still include some basketball powerhouses. There are only a few landing spots for teams leaving the ACC and there are simply not that many available spots in other conferences.

This is like B12 redux. Folks are stressing over an offer that is not going to happen.

Go enjoy your holidays.

 

[How Sway?!]

The more I think about it, the more FSU to the B1G is actually a win for everyone involved:

- B1G invites Florida State for play beginning in 2025, Seminoles accept before August 15, 2024 deadline

- FSU agrees to pull a SMU/ACC deal with the Big Ten, forfeiting tv revenue from the league until the ACC GOR expires in 2036

- FSU borrows the expected TV revenue from the B1G per annum from JP Morgan, who they’ve already hired as a strategic partner for the Athletic Department

- B1G adds another football power to the league to increase long term strength of the league and open FL for recruiting

- B1G TV partners get increased ratings from games with FSU without having to immediately pony up additional cash to the league

- Long term TV rights for the B1G increase and they’re in a better position for the next TV negotiations in 2030

Seems like a win for everyone

Seem to be forgetting how much it's going to cost to get out of the GOR. Half of any revenue FSU would make in a new league would probably be used to pay the buyout, so they'd be in the same boat as they are now.

 

[Rufus]

Florida State leaving the ACC would have massive ramifications for the future of college athletics

FSU desperately wants out of the ACC and its 20-year contract with ESPN, but every turn of conference realignment brings something unexpected.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[Rockford]

UNC is the coveted prize. FSU is in for a very rude awakening.

Wrong. Conference realignment is about football and TV viewership. FSU is a HUGE football brand and will be coveted by the BiG. conference. Gives them the Florida market in SEC backyard for TV, fans and recruiting. OSU, Mich, Penn State, Oregon, Wash to Tallahassee or at their stadiums? Huge interest, ratings and an additional huge fan base. Tell us more about UNC football.

 

[Drew]

Wrong. Conference realignment is about football and TV viewership. FSU is a HUGE football brand and will be coveted by the BiG. conference. Gives them the Florida market in SEC backyard for TV, fans and recruiting. OSU, Mich, Penn State, Oregon, Wash to Tallahassee or at their stadiums? Huge interest, ratings and an additional huge fan base. Tell us more about UNC football.

 

[Rufus]

I can't get over the shortsightedness of the leaders of the top ACC brands for signing a long-term grant of rights. I knew that was a mistake from day one. I think a lot of people did. Temporary stability does not create long-term viability.

 

[Rufus]

View attachment 94326

Neither the B1G or SEC can express interest in adding any ACC school. That is a lawsuit waiting to happen. They have to go about this in a way to avoid being sued by the ACC.

If either the SEC or B1G came out and said we are interested in adding Florida State (or Clemson, Miami, UNC, UVA, etc. etc.), there would be a lawsuit filed against the conference within a week.

 

[ZooCougar]

Continuing with independence is a death sentence for football.

Times 100

 

[ZooCougar]

Wrong. Conference realignment is about football and TV viewership. FSU is a HUGE football brand and will be coveted by the BiG. conference. Gives them the Florida market in SEC backyard for TV, fans and recruiting. OSU, Mich, Penn State, Oregon, Wash to Tallahassee or at their stadiums? Huge interest, ratings and an additional huge fan base. Tell us more about UNC football.

You’re in for a rude awakening too. The SEC doesn’t need or want more Floriduh.

UNC is a huge brand with a huge fanbase and the B1G and SEC aren’t in NC yet.

You’ll see.

There was a great and credible podcast recently that put FSU behind UNC and UVA in terms realignment/consolidation.

 

[Rockford]

You’re in for a rude awakening too. The SEC doesn’t need or want more Floriduh.

UNC is a huge brand with a huge fanbase and the B1G and SEC aren’t in NC yet.

You’ll see.

There was a great and credible podcast recently that put FSU behind UNC and UVA in terms realignment/consolidation.

Link for the podcast please. UNC / UVA football won't raise the bar for either the SEC or B1G at all. FSU to B1G makes sense. Not to the SEC, which is all set in Florida via the Gators. Also, FSU does NOT want to be partners with those crooks at ESPN. Fox = BiG

 

[buddy]

Florida State is trying to make more revenue, not less. The Big 12 is a step back revenue-wise.

Yes but they could buy time in the Big 12 and when the contract comes up in 2030 they could bargain for a lot more. I believe the Big 12 would even consider larger payout for them.

 

[c29328]

I think the report saying the FSU could join the Big 12 is simply smoke. They want B1G or SEC, nothing else.

After B1G and SEC, there won’t be anything else. The carousel stops spinning at 32. Or therabouts.

 

[Revrat]

After B1G and SEC, there won’t be anything else. The carousel stops spinning at 32. Or therabouts.

Here's where it gets tricky. If your thinking 32 the B1G and the SEC are going to have to willingly discard their dregs. So no more Vandy, Indiana, Min, Northwestern, etc.. It may happen, but I don't see it. there is no way an FSU Carolina or Virginia are left out if it comes to that. There would be some very tense negotiations for who's in or out, but you can't maximize dollars if the lesser schools are still kicking around. Maybe there would be a 32-team A division and a 32-AA division with an agreement that the AA division gets 2-4 teams into a 16-team playoff or something. but 32 is far too low, and 64 is far too high for a top division.

 

[shizzle787]

Yes but they could buy time in the Big 12 and when the contract comes up in 2030 they could bargain for a lot more. I believe the Big 12 would even consider larger payout for them.

LOL. They are not paying two exit fees to level up once.

 

[Rufus]

The B1G and SEC are not going to kick out the bottom feeders. They need teams to take those losses every year. If only the top brands existed in the conference, someone used to being at or near the top of the food chain will become the new bottom feeder, and I don't think any of the teams want to risk that. Conference records have to end with an overall .500 record. If a team goes 8-1 in conference play, someone else has to be 1-8, or some combination where the final overall conference record for everyone is .500.

 

[Revrat]

The B1G and SEC are not going to kick out the bottom feeders. They need teams to take those losses every year. If only the top brands existed in the conference, someone used to being at or near the top of the food chain will become the new bottom feeder, and I don't think any of the teams want to risk that. Conference records have to end with an overall .500 record. If a team goes 8-1 in conference play, someone else has to be 1-8, or some combination where the final overall conference record for everyone is .500.

There are no rules when you break away from the NCAA and they will. So no required records just division finish and tie breakers. It will no longer be about making sure there is a top team in your league. So no they wont need bottom feeders.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

The B1G and SEC are not going to kick out the bottom feeders. They need teams to take those losses every year. If only the top brands existed in the conference, someone used to being at or near the top of the food chain will become the new bottom feeder, and I don't think any of the teams want to risk that. Conference records have to end with an overall .500 record. If a team goes 8-1 in conference play, someone else has to be 1-8, or some combination where the final overall conference record for everyone is .500.

If the P2 plan is 32-40 teams like NFL Lite then you don’t need bottom feeders. They’ll have their own playoff where half get in any way.