Revenue distribution
This is the next-biggest task for conference commissioners and university presidents to tackle, several sources told CBS Sports. It must be determined what fair compensation looks like for the conferences, a task last undertaken when CFP started in 2014.
Basically, whatever kind of weight the SEC and Big Ten throw around the room will be a huge factor. In expansion, those conferences are trading money for access. They'll get their money, but the remaining eight conferences get a better shot at the playoff. That will be a first.
That access -- tripling the field -- keeps the feds away from collusion or antitrust accusations from the smaller conferences. Those lesser leagues now have more access than ever. That in itself smothers any talk of a monopoly.
"The playoff is the key," Aresco said. "If you have access to that, I think you'll stay relevant. Your donors will care. Your fans will care. The schools will make the investment because they have a chance to compete. … That's going to be the key to everything."
In 2021, the Power Five conferences each got $74 million annually from the CFP for, well, being Power Five conferences. The Group of Five split $95 million, about 20% of the total annual net distribution. Back when the CFP was formed, that percentage was basically agreed upon as a number that would keep the Group of Five from suing. With access going from four to 12, that reinforces the unlikely prospect of any legal action.
Going forward, here's one educated guess on the future distribution assuming a doubling of the annual revenue brought in by the CFP from $600 million (four teams) to $1.2 billion per year (12):
- SEC and Big Ten combine to get half the total, $600 million ($300 million each). That's an additional $16.7 million per year for each of those leagues' schools.
- ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 (depending on membership) split 30% of the pot, $360 million ($120 million each). That's approximately $10 million more per year for those schools. Another consideration: Perhaps the ACC, given the strength of some of its programs, sits on a tier of its own earning a sum between the Power Two and the Big 12 and Pac-12.
- Group of Five conferences split the remaining 20% of the pot, $240 million ($48 million each). That's an additional $3.9 million per year for each school in the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt.
These projections do not include deductions for revenue distribution to FBS independents, FCS and NCAA Divisions II and III.