Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[bobbyinaz]

The ACC can't be bold because ESPN has already cast its lots with the SEC. They are no longer the hunter, but the hunted.

This sums everything up pretty simply.

ESPN and/or FOX will decide how this shakes out just as they have with every other move that has been made in realignment.

ESPN already has some history in deciding which conferences and schools survive and which ones don't. It's very well known that FOX is all in on college sports and now owns one of the 2 prized whales.

They will determine which of the Little 3 survive just as they will determine which schools currently on the outside get in.

It's always been about the money. Now they just don't try and pretend to hide it.

 

[CAtlantic]

 

[Rufus]

For the Big Ten:

17- Notre Dame
18 - Stanford

Do they stop there? Or keep going?

19 - Oregon
20 - Washington

Keep going?

21 - Cal
22 - Virginia
23 - North Carolina
24 - Duke

For the SEC:

17. Clemson
18. Florida State

19. Oklahoma State
20. Miami

21. NC State
22. Virginia Tech

23. Wake Forest
24. West Virginia

 

[AZHuskiePop]

A lot of people just waive their hands on the Grant of Rights. If it is so easy to get out of, why can't anyone explain how that happens?

I’m sure the legal genius‘s of the school that want out are going over every inch of that agreement looking for a loophole
Just as the legal Departments on those left behind are building the case for wire it’s ironclad .
This can only be settled in a court of Law

 

[billybud]

Andy Staples (for the Athletic) went back to the source of the ACC GOR, which is the author himself Mark Wilhelm.

Wilhelm is now a corporate attorney with a silk stocking firm Troutman Pepper and broke down the four ways to deal with the GOR.

One was dissolution of the ACC. He did note this was unlikely.

The other three options were walk away (not an option), litigate (incredibly risky), negotiate a buyout (gobs of money).

A good write up if you pay for the Athletic.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I’m sure the legal genius‘s of the school that want out are going over every inch of that agreement looking for a loophole
Just as the legal Departments on those left behind are building the case for wire it’s ironclad .
This can only be settled in a court of Law

It is also fair to assume that the lawyers who drafted the original Grant of Rights knew what they were doing. There are many lawyers who specialize in transactions involving media rights.

I think a lot of people think law works like this:

 

[The Viking]

You might as well do that now. Because I love saying I told you so.

I will have no problem admitting you are right if they break the GOR but your confidence that it will happen is amazing and you are likely wrong.
The B1G will announce the teams it wants from the ACC in 2034 or 2035.
They are patient and will spend the next 10-12 years assimilating Notre Dame and the Pac12 teams. They are in no rush.
Once proven wrong, all I ask is that you apologize and go one full year without an ounce of bravado in your posts

 

[Stinger92860]

To the media professionals on here. Is there anything the State of CT could do to remove the ACC and B1G channel from cable in Fairfield County as currently structured? They can’t change the DMA geography but can they control the content and how it is delivered? This is hurting our state school. 1.35M TV sets would be more attractive for streaming.

 

[huskymedic]

Andy Staples (for the Athletic) went back to the source of the ACC GOR, which is the author himself Mark Wilhelm.

Wilhelm is now a corporate attorney with a silk stocking firm Troutman Pepper and broke down the four ways to deal with the GOR.

One was dissolution of the ACC. He did note this was unlikely.

The other three options were walk away (not an option), litigate (incredibly risky), negotiate a buyout (gobs of money).

A good write up if you pay for the Athletic.

Wilhelm was not the author of the GOR:

“When he learned this week that he was one of only a few people in possession of a copy of the ACC’s original grant of rights agreement, Mark Wilhelm took another look at it. He also examined copies of the Big 12 and Pac-12’s agreements, which he obtained around the same time period as a Villanova law student authoring an article on conference grant of rights agreements that would appear in 2014 in the Harvard Law School Journal of Sports and Entertainment Law.”

“The ACC agreement Wilhelm had — which is linked below in this story — is the original grant of rights. He obtained it in 2014 through an open records request to the University of North Carolina while writing that journal article. The agreement he received appears to be the copy that then-UNC chancellor Holden Thorp signed and sent back to the conference. The document contained signature pages for each school’s CEO, which would allow the signed pages to be combined into one fully executed document.”

 

[CL82]

To the media professionals on here. Is there anything the State of CT could do to remove the ACC and B1G channel from cable in Fairfield County as currently structured? They can’t change the DMA geography but can they control the content and how it is delivered? This is hurting our state school. 1.35M TV sets would be more attractive for streaming.

Every person in Fairfield County has just one TV? I find that hard to believe. If we count their cell phones it’s at least double that number. I have to think 2.7 million TV sets would be even more attractive.

 

[upstater]

Hopefully the next move to be made is the ACC also expanding to 16 schools with Kansas and UCONN. The fear would be they instead choose Kansas and West Virginia.

OK, if you're adding quality schools, but if you lose your marquee schools (Clemson, FSU, UNC, Virginia) and start backfilling with the dregs, your best bet is to just reconstitute the old Big East.

Add Syracuse, BC, WV, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Miami and if you must Duke and Georgia Tech.

I'm not sure where Wake Forest sits in all of this, but it can't be good.

 

[upstater]

The ACC needs to be bolder than adding 2 schools. The ACC needs to kill the B12 like they did the Big East.

Adding 5+ teams from the B12 ends the B12 and puts the PAC in a tough spot. Could the ACC go after TTU, Baylor, Kansas, WVU, and Oklahoma State? Could they go 6 and we get in? They need to act boldly and kill the B12.

They don’t want a B12 and PAC merger, then will be the losers. They can‘t place their future in the hands of ND.

I know thats 20, but it helps protect them to some degree from poaching and gives them a chance to survive in 2035. If the end goal is super leagues this is the right move.

The problem here is that those B12 schools dilute the earnings so much that ACC schools of all ranks start looking for better situations.

For instance, do Pitt, BC and Syracuse really stay in a conference if everyone of true value leaves and they're left with TCU and Baylor and Kansas State?

They're better off in the Big East.

Remember, 20 years ago, the BE was already set to receive about $13m a year from ESPN.

An easy argument could be made that a BE football conference would be easily worth as much as an ACC with only NC State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Duke left.

Both would be worth more than the dregs of the B12.

 

[History Geek]

OK, if you're adding quality schools, but if you lose your marquee schools (Clemson, FSU, UNC, Virginia) and start backfilling with the dregs, your best bet is to just reconstitute the old Big East.

Add Syracuse, BC, WV, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Miami and if you must Duke and Georgia Tech.

I'm not sure where Wake Forest sits in all of this, but it can't be good.

As a Wake Forest parent I have come to root for them (except when they play UConn of course). They have the smallest enrollment of any P5 institution. This is not good for them.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

To the media professionals on here. Is there anything the State of CT could do to remove the ACC and B1G channel from cable in Fairfield County as currently structured? They can’t change the DMA geography but can they control the content and how it is delivered? This is hurting our state school. 1.35M TV sets would be more attractive for streaming.

For the record (I've lived in Stamford for the entirety of the Big Ten and ACC networks and have had Cablevision/Optimum for all of that time) neither channel is on basic or first tier sports (additional ESPN's, Yes, SNY, CBS & Fox Sports access) packages.

I believe that there was a requirement that in all states (this was a huge reason for Rutgers with New Jersey) that had a Big Tem member, the BTN had to be offered on the basic package, but once the first run expired (I believe approx four years ago) carriers were allowed to move it to a pay level.

 

[noeynox]

Like they said, there is a reason Texas/Oklahoma and USC/UCLA are leaving at the end of a GOR period and not in the middle of one.

 

[noeynox]

As a Wake Forest parent I have come to root for them (except when they play UConn of course). They have the smallest enrollment of any P5 institution. This is not good for them.

Everyone should be subjected to the type of pain we had to go through! No mercy!

 

[goldendomer]

Like they said, there is a reason Texas/Oklahoma and USC/UCLA are leaving at the end of a GOR period and not in the middle of one.

SO ND is only 2.5 football games + other sports which is where the range of 125-175 million buyout comes from. NBC is our largest right holder.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

I can't believe that Clemson and some other of the ACC schools found a loophole in the GOR agreement before signing it. They knew this current situation might arise before the mid 2030s. There has got to be a less painful way out. I still think some of the Tobacco Road schools will remain in the ACC. Maybe Duke, UVA, Wake Forest, and perhaps NC.

 

[noeynox]

SO ND is only 2.5 football games + other sports which is where the range of 125-175 million buyout comes from. NBC is our largest right holder.

Still a crazy amount but more palatable than 400 million.

 

[goldendomer]

Still a crazy amount but more palatable than 400 million.

It is, but doable. If it is for 2025 it may be at the lower end of that range.

 

[NH Husky]

The ACC needs to be bolder than adding 2 schools. The ACC needs to kill the B12 like they did the Big East.

Adding 5+ teams from the B12 ends the B12 and puts the PAC in a tough spot. Could the ACC go after TTU, Baylor, Kansas, WVU, and Oklahoma State? Could they go 6 and we get in? They need to act boldly and kill the B12.

They don’t want a B12 and PAC merger, then will be the losers. They can‘t place their future in the hands of ND.

I know thats 20, but it helps protect them to some degree from poaching and gives them a chance to survive in 2035. If the end goal is super leagues this is the right move.

This scenario is the best I’ve seen thrown out there. With UCONN added with those 5 that makes a very strong conference. Not quite up there with B1G or SEC but winning on the field could change that.
It clearly would be way above anything the PAC, B12, and AAC could throw together.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Like they said, there is a reason Texas/Oklahoma and USC/UCLA are leaving at the end of a GOR period and not in the middle of one.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Like they said, there is a reason Texas/Oklahoma and USC/UCLA are leaving at the end of a GOR period and not in the middle of one.

Legal genius @ZooCougar knows how to beat a GoR, but he won't tell us. Maybe he is one of the old WVU basement dwellers.

 

[upstater]

Everyone should be subjected to the type of pain we had to go through! No mercy!

It's actually much worse for them because their budget is based on a hefty current payout.

 

[upstater]

SO ND is only 2.5 football games + other sports which is where the range of 125-175 million buyout comes from. NBC is our largest right holder.

AND consider, the B10 regularly asks new schools to take very little money for the first 5 years anyway.

ND could demand from them that they get the full B10 amount to make up for the shortfall.

 

[goldendomer]

Legal genius @ZooCougar knows how to beat a GoR, but he won't tell us. Maybe he is one of the old WVU basement dwellers.

I know how too. Pay them out, otherwise it is going to be costly and likely unwinnable.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Like they said, there is a reason Texas/Oklahoma and USC/UCLA are leaving at the end of a GOR period and not in the middle of one.

Don't know what happened to my post so I'll try again.

The 390 is a gross number.

The calculation will be present value of future cash flows multiplied by a discount rate. On another thread I ball parked the final number at a quarter of a billion (plugged in a discount rate that brought it to a very round, very conservative number. I doubt there is an industry standard here so the quarter billion can be low by a good amount).

I've worked on somewhat similar valuation models for decades (mostly for purchases/sales of income property portfolios), determining a defendable buyout number will be the easiest part of this.

Yes, a full member of the ACC will be able to buy themselves out of the GOR. It will however come at an enormous price (not including exit fees).

 

[djct1999]

AND consider, the B10 regularly asks new schools to take very little money for the first 5 years anyway.

ND could demand from them that they get the full B10 amount to make up for the shortfall.

What if the B10 or a tv network offered to pay for some of the buyout?

 

[freescooter]

Most contractural disagreement aren’t water tight no matter how much you try. Let’s say Clemson gets a call to the SEC. They sue the ACC for breach of contract. Then it goes into negotiations and eventually they settle. Because virtually nobody abides strictly be every provision of a contract. Ever. Partly because nobody actually knows them and partly because they are often impractical. And partly because people are people and just want to get things done and get along with other folks on the other side who are friends and colleagues and who they trust. And because the impact of calling someone out on it can be disaster out for everyone. As the saying goes there’s the contract and there’s the way we do do it.

 

[noeynox]

Don't know what happened to my post so I'll try again.

The 390 is a gross number.

The calculation will be present value of future cash flows multiplied by a discount rate. On another thread I ball parked the final number at a quarter of a billion (plugged in a discount rate that brought it to a very round, very conservative number. I doubt there is an industry standard here so the quarter billion can be low by a good amount).

I've worked on somewhat similar valuation models for decades (mostly for purchases/sales of income property portfolios), determining a defendable buyout number will be the easiest part of this.

Yes, a full member of the ACC will be able to buy themselves out of the GOR. It will however come at an enormous price (not including exit fees).

I could see a scenario where desirable schools announce that they are leaving for the B1G or SEC following upon expiration of the GOR in an attempt to send schools scurrying to find new homes and thus dissolving the conference. A Hail Mary attempt if you will.