Your conclusion is based on a false premise (since UCONN lost at home to ACC teams in the past, UCONN will probably lose to the ACC teams this season). Your premise assumes the same, or similar, variables relative to the games this season as in past seasons. In actuality, almost all of the variables have changed: players, coaches, expectations, conditioning, etc. Therefore, it is a better predictor of success to measure the known variables of each team as they are right now, rather than depend on outdated data. To that point, one could, and I did on another post, argue that UCONN's current position is more favorable for wins than Virginia and Cuse. BC could be better than the Patriots and I will still pick UCONN because FBC. Plus, I really do believe we'll win that one too.
Whaler, you strike me as the kind of guy who would show up at the Pearly Gates and say something like, "Heaven. It's nice, but Hell was a lot warmer."