Your logic is sound, but the scenario used as example is more applicable to the typical professional level employee "at will" (not covered by a collective bargaining agreement, or any other type of contact). In the case at hand, employee X has a contract that doesn't stipulate anything about performance on the court.
In college sports, coaches in demand have leverage to get contracts that pay them for a pre-determined period, regardless of the outcome on the court/field etc. Further, its a common practice, that when results aren't what was expected, coaches are either paid the remainder of their contract or something is negotiated.
So lets see what we have here: A coach, not in a protected class, who's team was found to have violated NCAA rules resulting in them being banned from post season play. Resultant discipline to the coach, or anyone else associated with the program - nothing; and a coach in a protected class, who violated NCAA rules. Resultant discipline to the coach - termination with no buyout.
Not a lawyer (or HR person), so not sure if this can go to a jury; but assuming it can, imagine presenting your "ironclad" case to a jury with some members used to finding that all the "small print" and rules always seem to stack the deck against them.
Still feeling 10 out of 10 ?