Jeff Goodwin's Big East update

[champs99and04]

KenPom is meaningless until mid-December. We do not know much about how much of our schedule is Q1 or Q2 or whatever until then.

Why do you say that? Obviously the more data it collects, the more reliable it is, but it tends to be pretty accurate, at least as a grouping mechanism (which is also what NET is), even this early in the season.

Unfortunately, with conference play fast approaching, the league's fate is already mostly sealed. Some teams will move up and others will move down as the season plays out, but the net result will be the same. UConn's done enough in the OOC to maintain credibility as a possible protected seed, but it will have to win a lot and by the expected margins.

 

[REB1094]

One bad year since he’s been here is not the end of the world. Let’s see if they become a tourney team again next year.

He should. I hope he does for his sake. He deserves better.

There’s context to Cooley missing the tournament. I don’t think people realize how big Vince was for Georgetown this year. They looked really good before he went down.

Health has been the main reason for their struggles and they’re starting to bring in more and more talent.

It’s the trajectory that’s more concerning than just this one year. 29 wins in 2023, 27 in 2024, 23 last year, on pace for less than that this year

They did have the sweet 16 but they beat two double digit seed teams and then got punked by a third one in that run. That’s the outlier instead of the trend as Shaka’s other seasons have been two 1st round exits and a 2nd round exit

Maybe the underclassmen grow up and lead them back to success in the next few years, but in today’s game it doesn’t have to be that way. They easily could have picked up some portal players and developed young guys at the same time for a better season

 

[Excalibur]

Shaka’s system in the current world is a recipe to be pretty good 2 out of every 4 years unless you absolutely crush multiple recruiting classes (which is hard to do when most of your targets are top 100 to 50 guys.

Cooley is a good coach and Georgetown is near the top of the conference in terms of resource commitments, but their ceiling is also “pretty good”.

Creighton is having an off year under McDermott, but they’re done as soon as he is.

 

[Excalibur]

Marquette has built a culture that guys transferring out isn’t a problem. The players there came in with an understanding that they have a coach committed to them and they commit to him in return.

That can change awfully quickly when you’re not winning. Good players on a bad team may look to go somewhere where they can win.

 

[superjohn]

Shaka’s system in the current world is a recipe to be pretty good 2 out of every 4 years unless you absolutely crush multiple recruiting classes (which is hard to do when most of your targets are top 100 to 50 guys.

Cooley is a good coach and Georgetown is near the top of the conference in terms of resource commitments, but their ceiling is also “pretty good”.

Creighton is having an off year under McDermott, but they’re done as soon as he is.

I strongly disagree Creighton will be done when McDermott is done. Huss recruited those guys who have made them so successful and he did a great job at High Point. I think this is a succession plan that will work out very well.

 

[HW611]

It’s the trajectory that’s more concerning than just this one year. 29 wins in 2023, 27 in 2024, 23 last year, on pace for less than that this year

They did have the sweet 16 but they beat two double digit seed teams and then got punked by a third one in that run. That’s the outlier instead of the trend as Shaka’s other seasons have been two 1st round exits and a 2nd round exit

Maybe the underclassmen grow up and lead them back to success in the next few years, but in today’s game it doesn’t have to be that way. They easily could have picked up some portal players and developed young guys at the same time for a better season

That’s a very fair point as far as trajectory goes. If they don’t get back to being really good next year Shaka may have to look at some changes.

Shaka’s system in the current world is a recipe to be pretty good 2 out of every 4 years unless you absolutely crush multiple recruiting classes (which is hard to do when most of your targets are top 100 to 50 guys.

Cooley is a good coach and Georgetown is near the top of the conference in terms of resource commitments, but their ceiling is also “pretty good”.

Creighton is having an off year under McDermott, but they’re done as soon as he is.

Thats the issue with Shaka. They really don’t recruit well enough to be consistently good. At best they’re getting the 75th best player in the class.

If he could actually get top 50 recruits who can make a good impact their freshman year it may work better but he’s not.

I’d say Georgetown’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s. They have the history, resources, and they’re in a recruiting hotbed. They don’t have to go more than an hour away from their school to build a great roster.

Before Ewing screwed everything up, they were one of the top programs in the country. Cooley is doing his best Hurley impression to put the pieces back together.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

I strongly disagree Creighton will be done when McDermott is done. Huss recruited those guys who have made them so successful and he did a great job at High Point. I think this is a succession plan that will work out very well.

They also have massive fan support and will pivot if the succession doesn't go well. They're probably the last Big East team I'm worried about long term

 

[Excalibur]

Georgetown was not one of the top programs in the country. They haven’t been to the second weekend in almost 20 years. From 2008 to 2015, they qualified as pretty good.

 

[HW611]

Georgetown was not one of the top programs in the country. They haven’t been to the second weekend in almost 20 years. From 2008 to 2015, they qualified as pretty good.

They didn’t make it to a second weekend because they underperformed in the tournament. But they were consistently a top 10 team and had a NPOY as recently as 2012. They also made it to a Sweet 16 that year

I know championships are the only measure of success for us, but other programs aren’t as fortunate and have to look at other factors for success too lol

 

[RuffRuff]

I strongly disagree Creighton will be done when McDermott is done. Huss recruited those guys who have made them so successful and he did a great job at High Point. I think this is a succession plan that will work out very well.

Hard to know - McDermott is a culture builder and great in game strategist, he's kind of their brand and that's not really a brand that carries outside of the coach. It's a small Catholic in Omaha in the middle of football country, not exactly what I would call a hoops destination.

 

[RuffRuff]

They didn’t make it to a second weekend because they underperformed in the tournament. But they were consistently a top 10 team and had a NPOY as recently as 2012. They also made it to a Sweet 16 that year

I know championships are the only measure of success for us, but other programs aren’t as fortunate and have to look at other factors for success too lol

Gtown strikes me as a fan base that just needs one deep run to re-engage. When you've been bad for that long, I think you go into a state of need to see it to believe it before you commit. Get them to an Elite 8 or so, and I think Hoya Paranoia is back.

 

[superjohn]

Hard to know - McDermott is a culture builder and great in game strategist, he's kind of their brand and that's not really a brand that carries outside of the coach. It's a small Catholic in Omaha in the middle of football country, not exactly what I would call a hoops destination.

They're like 6th nationally in attendance every year, they also had it rolling pretty good under Dana Altman before McDermott and the Big East move.

 

[alexd]

UConn is back from where?

We went an entire season without winning the national title.

 

[Palatine]

Georgetown has moved down in class since John Thompson retired in 1999.

 

[RuffRuff]

They're like 6th nationally in attendance every year, they also had it rolling pretty good under Dana Altman before McDermott and the Big East mo

Game has changed a ton since Altman. Ask yourself, if you're a top recruit, if you're going Creighton or a B10 school? I'm looking at their roster now and it just looks like a bunch of JAGs. They got Greer this past year, which was a weird recruitment. They got a 60ish kid coming in out of Utah next year, then not a lot else.

I just don't think the brand of a small midwest Catholic is the way of the hoops future. It's all moving to big colorful states. Can't blame Miller for his move, at all.

 

[superjohn]

Game has changed a ton since Altman. Ask yourself, if you're a top recruit, if you're going Creighton or a B10 school? I'm looking at their roster now and it just looks like a bunch of JAGs. They got Greer this past year, which was a weird recruitment. They got a 60ish kid coming in out of Utah next year, then not a lot else.

I just don't think the brand of a small midwest Catholic is the way of the hoops future. It's all moving to big colorful states. Can't blame Miller for his move, at all.

You said McDermott is their brand and it doesn't carry outside of him. I don't think those fans who give them the 6th highest attendance in college basketball routinely will pack up and leave because McDermott is no longer coaching.

Of course the game is different now than when Altman was coaching I was just pointing out they played basketball before McDermott got there and routinely made the tournament.

They had their highest rated recruit ever the previous season.

What are the big colorful states college basketball is moving to?

I wouldn't exactly call Omaha colorful, mostly because I don't know what that means but there's a ton of money there, it's routinely on lists for places to live, Creighton has very good money and great fan support.

 

[RuffRuff]

You said McDermott is their brand and it doesn't carry outside of him. I don't think those fans who give them the 6th highest attendance in college basketball routinely will pack up and leave because McDermott is no longer coaching.

Of course the game is different now than when Altman was coaching I was just pointing out they played basketball before McDermott got there and routinely made the tournament.

They had their highest rated recruit ever the previous season.

What are the big colorful states college basketball is moving to?

I wouldn't exactly call Omaha colorful, mostly because I don't know what that means but there's a ton of money there, it's routinely on lists for places to live, Creighton has very good money and great fan support.

State flagships and P4. A private Catholic in Omaha in the BE is not gonna be a destination for top recruits.

 

[superjohn]

State flagships and P4. A private Catholic in Omaha in the BE is not gonna be a destination for top recruits.

So you think their recruiting is going to go down from where it's been?

What are the colorful states?

 

[HW611]

Gtown strikes me as a fan base that just needs one deep run to re-engage. When you've been bad for that long, I think you go into a state of need to see it to believe it before you commit. Get them to an Elite 8 or so, and I think Hoya Paranoia is back.

It took our fanbase a little time to get fully re-engaged too. There’s also a million things to do in Dc so they have to give them a really good reason to come out (even though the Wizards, Nationals, and Commanders aren’t much better currently).

There’s a lot of competition for attention in this area. The government going through their work issues doesn’t help the economy of the area either to have excess money to spend on going to games.

But I’m digressing there.

 

[RuffRuff]

So you think their recruiting is going to go down from where it's been?

What are the colorful states?

Not gonna list them all - walk through the B10, SEC.

I don’t know why you keep clinging to the idea the BE has legs to compete with the P4. It’s more hope than reality.

No BE school other than us is making a F4, for as far out as I can see. Trend is pretty vivid.

 

[superjohn]

Not gonna list them all - walk through the B10, SEC.

I don’t know why you keep clinging to the idea the BE has legs to compete with the P4. It’s more hope than reality.

No BE school other than us is making a F4, for as far out as I can see. Trend is pretty vivid.

I know where the Big East is competitively.

Not in this post but I don't know why you constantly downplay UConn's coach and accomplishments as a program and constantly play up other coaches and the accomplishments of other programs. I don't know why you constantly downplay and flat out disparage UConn players while constantly hyping up players around the country.

 

[RuffRuff]

I know where the Big East is competitively.

Not in this post but I don't know why you constantly downplay UConn's coach and accomplishments as a program and constantly play up other coaches and the accomplishments of other programs. I don't know why you constantly downplay and flat out disparage UConn players while constantly hyping up players around the country.

I downplay? I think what Hurley did was the single most impressive accomplishment in college hoops. I don’t downplay. But I don’t have to resort to trashing other great coaches to support that. Good lord man.