Is Tennessee Out of the Tournament?

[eebmg]

Actually Charlie's latest Bracketology has TN in the tournament as a 9 seed in Greensboro.
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

Last updated Feb 19 before the TA&M drubbing.

 

[eebmg]

The LVs have a chance with a good win or two. But losing to Bama or Ole Miss will get them a ticket to the WNIT.

which they would decline.

 

[MilfordHusky]

which they would decline.

Could be.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Did Holly happen to says whose job it is to inspire them?

I think I speak for @triaddukefan, @EricLA , and @ucbart when I say that perhaps Holly can be inspired Coach P to see the "lessons learned" from the losses and look to 0, 2, and 10 on the Lady Vols to bring the leadership...

 

[CocoHusky]

The LVs have a chance with a good win or two. But losing to Bama or Ole Miss will get them a ticket to the WNIT.

Note to self:
Make sure you have the DVR on, plenty of pop corn come selection day. The TN players assembled waiting to hear their team called and not. Holly with this look on her face- Priceless!

 

[eebmg]

Note to self:
Make sure you have the DVR on, plenty of pop corn come selection day. The TN players assembled waiting to hear their team called and not. Holly with this look on her face- Priceless!
View attachment 39993

First thought. Belly dancing.
Second Thought. Hulu Hoop training.

 

[Plebe]

If Tennessee beats SC on Sunday, they're a lock.

If Tennessee loses to SC but then beats Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, they're very likely in, as long as they don't take a bad loss in the SEC tournament.

If Tennessee loses to SC and then loses to either Ole Miss or Vanderbilt, they're in jeopardy.

 

[Vowelguy]

Yes, I understand — but I also understand that the big conferences also throw their weight on the selection committee

Show me one piece of evidence that supports this.

 

[Vowelguy]

This does not compute. Your conference record is part of your overall record. If the committee is looking at your overall record

Who says they look at overall record?

Quality wins; Bad losses. Those are the key metrics.

 

[Tonyc]

I would think an early loss in the SEC tournament and they should be out however will the committee allow a mid major or a smaller conferences team to replace Tenn? Would they rather have Tenn then another team or give another conference another pick? Tenn has to win a big game and Tenn has to beat lesser teams. I don think the SEC is strong enough to have more then 5 teams and if thats the case Tenn is out.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

No. The committee will put them in simply on reputation.

 

[MSGRET]

Best Idea I read so far today. I agree. Put them in the "Albany Region" as an "at large" 16th seed. They can play UConn at the Mohegan Sun Arena that first weekend of the tournament. They should provide a nice "run" for UConn to begin tournament play, and set the stage for their two home and home series in 2020 and 2021.

Most of UConn's first round tournament games draw a luke-warm interest from most UConn fans because #16 seeds are the weakest teams in the field. A first round game against Tennessee would draw MAJOR attention from everyone, including the news media.

Actually they would play at Gampel, that would even be better.

 

[Carnac]

Actually they would play at Gampel, that would even be better.

Oops, you're right, even better!! I'll make that correction.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Tennessee lost again last night, this time to Texas A&M, and lost convincingly. That makes 9 losses so far on the season, and places them 9th in the SEC standings. And they still have to play South Carolina among their last three opponents. They have a losing record in the SEC at 6-7.

Is Tennessee a zombie team? One which, no matter how poorly they perform, the NCAA tournament committee simply can't conceive of acknowledging that they're dead, and keeps putting them in? Or should they be considered an also-ran on the merits, and left out this time?

I'm a bit ambivalent about in or out. Emotionally, because I remember the Pat led UT Vols and the great games UC and they had; I'm leaning towards them being IN. On a moral thought: Fair is fair, your status is that which you earned TODAY. However, if that were Uconn in the future I'd be very pleased the Committee remember the power that once was.
I'm sure many including Coach @Rsherm will disagree.

 

[CocoHusky]

Who says they look at overall record?
Quality wins; Bad losses. Those are the key metrics.

It is important to remember that the committee doesn't look at conference record or standings at all. They look at a team's record as a whole, with no distinctions between conference and non-conference games.
I also think a lot of us who generally follow teams that are perpetually in the top 5 forget how life is at the bubble. All of those teams are flawed, and all have losses that top teams would consider bad. Tennessee does still have a couple decent wins, which will likely push them over the top. They have certainly underachieved, but performance relative to potential is not a selection criteria.

 

[Bayareahusky]

No. The committee will put them in simply on reputation.

Yes and isn't it funny that the once-proud Lady Vol program now has a reputation for underachievement.... They never win games they are supposed to win.... they have no offensive scheme... and often show very little grit and hustle.... once a hallmark of the program

 

[Vowelguy]

They never win games they are supposed to win.

What does that even mean? They've won a bunch of games. Had a few upsets. Lost a few upsets.

 

[bballnut90]

No. The committee will put them in simply on reputation.

This is just inaccurate and has no merit behind it.

Tennessee against teams in Creme's top 64:

Wins:
Clemson-8 seed
Texas-7 seed
Belmont-12 seed
Auburn-11 seed
Auburn-11 seed
Mizzou-6 seed
LSU-10 seed

Losses:
Stanford-2 seed
Kentucky-5 seed
Mizzou-6 seed
Notre Dame-2 seed
MSU-2 seed
A&M-5 seed
UGA-unseeded, 102 RPI
Alabama-unseeded, 135 RPI
Arkansas-unseeded, 88 RPI

Not that it matters in the eyes of the committee, but 4 of Tennessee's losses were by 4 points or fewer.


Compare that to a team just outside of the bubble in Kansas State:
Wins:
Texas-7 seed
Texas-7 seed

Losses:
Syracuse-5 seed
DePaul-7 seed
Arizona State-5 seed
Iowa State-4 seed (lost by 38)
Iowa State-4 seed (lost by 29)
Baylor-1 seed
Baylor-1 seed
West Virginia-10 seed (lost by 30)
Kansas-133 RPI
TCU-1st 4 out

No question Tennessee is far more deserving of a spot than a team K State, especially if you look at how non-competitive K State is in most of their losses (average margin of loss is 20ppg)

Now compare Tennessee's to another bubble team in Cal, and I'd argue Tennessee is still more deserving:

Cal Wins:
BYU-9 seed
Stanford-2 seed


Losses:
UCONN-1 seed
Oregon-1 seed
Stanford-2 seed
Oregon State-3 seed
Arizona State-5 seed
UCLA-8 seed
UCLA-8 seed
Harvard-90 RPI
Utah-1st four out
Arizona-70 RPI
USC-55 RPI

Cal has more losses overall and fewer quality wins. They wouldn't be a bubble team IMO if they didn't squeak out a buzzer beater over Stanford. Even with that win, they're just 2-7 against tournament teams and have 4 losses to non-tournament teams.

Tennessee definitely has bad losses, especially when you factor in RPI, but they also have better wins than most bubble teams, especially if teams like Auburn, Belmont and LSU hold their spots and make the tournament. When looking at Cal vs. Tennessee and analyzing who is a better team, I think it's pretty clear that Tennessee has an edge at this point and is more deserving of a spot. And this is coming from someone who doesn't want Tennessee to make the tournament.


If Tennessee loses to either Vandy (200 RPI) or Ole Miss (201 RPI), that'll be a horrible loss that pushes them on the outside of the bubble. I honestly don't see Tennessee losing either of those games, but anything is possible with Holly.

As long as they beat those teams and lose to SC, they'll likely be the #7 seed in the SEC Tournament (have tiebreakers over LSU and Auburn) and will face Arkansas or Alabama for a spot in the quarterfinals. Tennessee wins that, they're in the tournament pretty safely. If they lose, they might be on the outside looking in depending on how other teams fare in their conference tournaments.

 

[biobioprof]

This is just inaccurate and has no merit behind it.

Tennessee against teams in Creme's top 64:
...
Losses:
Stanford-2 seed
Kentucky-5 seed
Mizzou-6 seed
Notre Dame-2 seed
MSU-2 seed
A&M-2 seed
UGA-unseeded, 102 RPI
Alabama-unseeded, 135 RPI
Arkansas-unseeded, 88 RPI

Quibble: A&M's a 5 not a 2 in that version of bracketology.

 

[bballnut90]

Quibble: A&M's a 5 not a 2 in that version of bracketology.

Thanks...fixed

 

[MilfordHusky]

Actually, I’d like to see the LVs play ND in South Bend in Round 2. Run off the floor.

 

[Bayareahusky]

What does that even mean? They've won a bunch of games. Had a few upsets. Lost a few upsets.

vowelguy//// what it means is that Tennessee lines up every game with more talented players than its opponent. Vegas odds would say that on talent alone they should go 35-0 or at least 34-1. But they lose several games every year....

and.... my point being.... they do not win any games over any opponent that on paper is better than they are.....

maybe you can tell me in the Holly era.... what one game out of 300 or so played were they not supposed to win and yet they won....

 

[Vowelguy]

vowelguy//// what it means is that Tennessee lines up every game with more talented players than its opponent. Vegas odds would say that on talent alone they should go 35-0 or at least 34-1. But they lose several games every year....

and.... my point being.... they do not win any games over any opponent that on paper is better than they are.....

maybe you can tell me in the Holly era.... what one game out of 300 or so played were they not supposed to win and yet they won....

Um, for starters let's go with the 2017 season where they beat:

• then #6 ND,
• at eventual national champ (then #5) So Car,
• at eventual national runnerup (then #3) Miss St, and
• eventual national semifinalist (then #10) Stanford.

Got any more BS to spread around?

 

[Fightin Choke]

vowelguy//// what it means is that Tennessee lines up every game with more talented players than its opponent. Vegas odds would say that on talent alone they should go 35-0 or at least 34-1. But they lose several games every year....

and.... my point being.... they do not win any games over any opponent that on paper is better than they are.....

maybe you can tell me in the Holly era.... what one game out of 300 or so played were they not supposed to win and yet they won....

Look, no one is arguing that Tennessee hasn't been disappointing, but they have had several good wins in the Holly era. Just 2 seasons ago, they upset 3 1-seeds during the regular season. Notre Dame both teams that played in the NC game (Miss St and South Carolina). They were not expected to win any of those games.

 

[Plebe]

Um, for starters let's go with the 2017 season where they beat:

• then #6 ND,
• at eventual national champ (then #5) So Car,
• at eventual national runnerup (then #3) Miss St, and
• eventual national semifinalist (then #10) Stanford.

Got any more BS to spread around?

And in the 2016 season they beat 2 of the 4 Final Four teams.