IOWA -2.5

[Bone Dog]

As always, Paige's task is a lot easier the more her teammates score. Ash was the rock in the first two rounds, but has had a harder time scoring since. But her defense has not faltered.

My prediction for our offense is that Ash will find open shots again, mainly because I don't expect Iowa's guards to be able to stop her. If Ash score 15+ then Aaliyah can score 20+ and Paige can score 25+. Then the game will be ours.

On defense, I think Nika can annoy Caitlin's shots just enough to hold her under 30. They depend on Stuelke and Martin scoring 12+ points each, but Paige and Aaliyah will make this much more difficult. Also, the loss of Molly Davis hurts their offensive and defensive flow. Affolter and Marshall are not going to be able to score much over Ash and KK, and if KK or Nika start hitting shots, this will be a long night for the Hawkeyes.

So, the question is, who on UConn will find their stroke and be able to support Paige and Aaliyah? It could be any of them, but I'm betting on Ash. She is really the key.

I'm predicting an 8 point UConn win, something on the order of 81-73

 

[Bone Dog]

I'm sorry to hear that, Bone Dog. I always feel the effort to spell a person's name correctly is well worth it.

Agreed with those points.

I'd never call Nika static in any regard, but to me, the improvement she's made in the last 18 months has been as a slightly more willing shooter, which isn't necessarily relevant here.

1. I have a French name that has been misspelled all my life. This is not worth fussing over.

2. good, we're on the same page.

3. CaitlYYYYYn has been static too in regard to her offense. She still shoots 3s -- they haven't invented a 4 point shot, have they? She's still a good passer. And she is still a talented but underutilized defender. There has been no great transformation of her skills, her speed, or her on-court persona. Incremental improvement only. Nika shoots a little more, but this isn't a sea-change. She seems a little quicker this post-season, mainly because she hasn't been quite so worn down by the regular season. Also her ankle seems to be bothering her less than last season. I expect Caitlin will find Nika to be every bit as difficult to deal with as she was 18 months ago.

As for the targets of Caitlin's passes, Kate Martin is very much what she was last season, a good rebounder and defender and a streaky shooter. Sydney Affolter is a step down from Morgan Warnock, and Hannah Stuelke is quicker and more athletic than Czinano, and is more or less attuned to Caitlin's instincts. But she is not nearly as strong as Monica was and not as skilled in the low post. She is not nearly as strong as Aaliyah either and will struggle to contain her without fouling. O'Grady can give her a breather, but she is rather slower than Hannah or Aaliyah and not nearly the offensive threat. I'm not sure Goodman will be available, but she is certainly not any more skilled than O'Grady. When O'Grady comes in, expect Paige and Aaliyah to engineer a scoring run.

If Iowa is going to win, Caitlin will have to score 40+ and Martin and Stuelke will have to score 15+ each. It's not impossible, but bear in mind it won't be Haley Van Lith covering Caitlin this time. My prediction is she'll score a respectable 25 or so, Stuelke will struggle with fouls all game and Martin will shoot well but only score 12. On the other side, Paige will also score a respectable 25 or so. But Aaliyah will score 24 and Ash will score 20. It could go totally the other way, but I don't think that's likely.

 

[DennieEddy]

In

 

[DennieEddy]

 

[DennieEddy]

How can UConn lose?

 

[Childhood]

I feel much confident against Iowa than against USC/Duke.

 

[OldSchooler]

Our last two games vs. Iowa.
UConn wins 92:72 in 2021
UConn wins 86:79 in 2022

I like our chances!

Me too, even as an underdog. ESPN reports that Geno has beaten a #1 seed 9 times in the NCAA tourney. Some of those might have been where UConn faced off against another #1 in the championship game. But we face another #1 Friday night, and if successful, probably another #1 on Sunday.

 

[Heytherego]

Kind of interesting in UCONN’s tournament run we’ve faced teams with highly talented scoring guards (Fair from Syracuse, Juju, now CC)

 

[Superhuskies]

And..../but......would..../will..... either team....win.....the......n....e....x....t.......g...a...m...e........??????????

 

[hoophuskee]

Maybe Caitlin, Bone Dog?

By the way, they're sort of like Creighton how?

I suspect Nika might find Caitlin a different player, emotionally and especially physically, than 18 months ago.


As you said in an ensuing message, Charlie, 'don't sell Iowa short'... many here assume the Hawkeyes are just a bunch of back-country kids who happen to have Clark as a teammate. I've watched nearly all of their games and I'll opine that Iowa is an athletic team, and probably stronger, person for person, than the Huskies.

LSU was the first team to out-rebound Iowa since back in the regular season. I will predict a UConn win 'cause I'm foremost a Huskies fan, but Iowa is eight or nine deep and never seems to tire.

My wish for the game is that both Paige and Caitlin enjoy good games, and foul trouble for anyone on either side isn't a factor.

What an amazing run both teams have had. I say this of Iowa considering- I'm not so sure they get elite recruits other than The Great Caitlin Clark. And make no mistake for anyone on the fence - she is an All-Time Great. That team's transformation into a Powerhouse from their season last year and then backing it up for this year is amazing. And the word "amazing" doesn't do what's transpired - justice.

And the same goes for Paige. She's an All-Time great. And every one of the player’s on this team (which also most definitely means the ones unable to play) - I just have so much respect for -- it's the reason why I've followed WCBB for these many years. And a couple of weird things I am also so proud of is 1.) our team and all the players and the staff- - but 2.) the other teams and coaches I have a ton of respect for (for the record I also like Kim and never had any problems with LSU).

Just super proud of the team -- and while I absolutely love the attention the game is now getting - I taped some of the media hyping up the games today, and the discussion of Paige vs Caitlin ofc already started. But a pet-peeve of mine will be after the game - one of these two all-time greats might get minimized by some because they didn't win it all. IMO that would be complete nonsense. Thee two are so amazing and I hope neither gets minimized. But I do love that the attention the game is getting. It’s what I have always felt about this game.

Anyhow - just saying I'm so proud of our team (and the wccbb game in general) doesn't do it's justice. How they came together like this – it’s all heart of a champion even if they get knocked off. IMO from what they were – no way this should have happened. So as you say or imply - hoping for a great game (ofc a UCONN win) - I love scoring so in the 80's I love it. And on the other side – the other game- I like Dawn and Wes too. This has been so much of a win-win.

 

[The deacon]

1. I have a French name that has been misspelled all my life. This is not worth fussing over.

2. good, we're on the same page.

3. CaitlYYYYYn has been static too in regard to her offense. She still shoots 3s -- they haven't invented a 4 point shot, have they? She's still a good passer. And she is still a talented but underutilized defender. There has been no great transformation of her skills, her speed, or her on-court persona. Incremental improvement only. Nika shoots a little more, but this isn't a sea-change. She seems a little quicker this post-season, mainly because she hasn't been quite so worn down by the regular season. Also her ankle seems to be bothering her less than last season. I expect Caitlin will find Nika to be every bit as difficult to deal with as she was 18 months ago.

As for the targets of Caitlin's passes, Kate Martin is very much what she was last season, a good rebounder and defender and a streaky shooter. Sydney Affolter is a step down from Morgan Warnock, and Hannah Stuelke is quicker and more athletic than Czinano, and is more or less attuned to Caitlin's instincts. But she is not nearly as strong as Monica was and not as skilled in the low post. She is not nearly as strong as Aaliyah either and will struggle to contain her without fouling. O'Grady can give her a breather, but she is rather slower than Hannah or Aaliyah and not nearly the offensive threat. I'm not sure Goodman will be available, but she is certainly not any more skilled than O'Grady. When O'Grady comes in, expect Paige and Aaliyah to engineer a scoring run.

If Iowa is going to win, Caitlin will have to score 40+ and Martin and Stuelke will have to score 15+ each. It's not impossible, but bear in mind it won't be Haley Van Lith covering Caitlin this time. My prediction is she'll score a respectable 25 or so, Stuelke will struggle with fouls all game and Martin will shoot well but only score 12. On the other side, Paige will also score a respectable 25 or so. But Aaliyah will score 24 and Ash will score 20. It could go totally the other way, but I don't think that's likely.

If you're right and UConn wins, Bone Dog, I'll be very happy for the Huskies. However, your scouting report on Hawkeyes is fraught with misconceptions.

Anyway, it should be another fun game for fans.

Love your sophomoric attempt at humor with your spelling of Caitlin. You should be better than that.

 

[The deacon]

What an amazing run both teams have had. I say this of Iowa considering- I'm not so sure they get elite recruits other than The Great Caitlin Clark. And make no mistake for anyone on the fence - she is an All-Time Great. That team's transformation into a Powerhouse from their season last year and then backing it up for this year is amazing. And the word "amazing" doesn't do what's transpired - justice.

And the same goes for Paige. She's an All-Time great. And every one of the player’s on this team (which also most definitely means the ones unable to play) - I just have so much respect for -- it's the reason why I've followed WCBB for these many years. And a couple of weird things I am also so proud of is 1.) our team and all the players and the staff- - but 2.) the other teams and coaches I have a ton of respect for (for the record I also like Kim and never had any problems with LSU).

Just super proud of the team -- and while I absolutely love the attention the game is now getting - I taped some of the media hyping up the games today, and the discussion of Paige vs Caitlin ofc already started. But a pet-peeve of mine will be after the game - one of these two all-time greats might get minimized by some because they didn't win it all. IMO that would be complete nonsense. Thee two are so amazing and I hope neither gets minimized. But I do love that the attention the game is getting. It’s what I have always felt about this game.

Anyhow - just saying I'm so proud of our team (and the wccbb game in general) doesn't do it's justice. How they came together like this – it’s all heart of a champion even if they get knocked off. IMO from what they were – no way this should have happened. So as you say or imply - hoping for a great game (ofc a UCONN win) - I love scoring so in the 80's I love it. And on the other side – the other game- I like Dawn and Wes too. This has been so much of a win-win.

Excellent post, hoophuskee!

 

[Bone Dog]

your scouting report on Hawkeyes is fraught with misconceptions.

... such as?

 

[BrewHawk]

... such as?

Well, for one, I would say that Affolter is an all-around better player than Warnock.

 

[Bone Dog]

Well, for one, I would say that Affolter is an all-around better player than Warnock.

Hmmm? She’s improved a lot this season with more playing time. But the stats suggest she’s a slightly weaker player. The primary bright spots are that she now shoots at a high percentage, has doubled her 3pt percentage and rebounds pretty well. But Warnock was a bit better in all categories, and took more 3s. Now I suppose you could say Warnock benefited from playing next to Czinano. But this cuts both ways, since Stuelke may leave more rebounding and inside scoring opportunities for others.

Subjectively speaking, I had expected Affolter to be a bit quicker than Warnock. But this doesn’t appear to be the case. I have zero data to support this conclusion.

 

[BrewHawk]

Hmmm? She’s improved a lot this season with more playing time. But the stats suggest she’s a slightly weaker player. The primary bright spots are that she now shoots at a high percentage, has doubled her 3pt percentage and rebounds pretty well. But Warnock was a bit better in all categories, and took more 3s. Now I suppose you could say Warnock benefited from playing next to Czinano. But this cuts both ways, since Stuelke may leave more rebounding and inside scoring opportunities for others.

Subjectively speaking, I had expected Affolter to be a bit quicker than Warnock. But this doesn’t appear to be the case. I have zero data to support this conclusion.

There are lies, damn lies and then statistics.

Affolter is better than Warnock, no offense to McKenna.

 

[FanFromMaine]

Massey has UConn at -3.5 today, up a point.

 

[FormerCTrez]

As always, Paige's task is a lot easier the more her teammates score. Ash was the rock in the first two rounds, but has had a harder time scoring since. But her defense has not faltered.

My prediction for our offense is that Ash will find open shots again, mainly because I don't expect Iowa's guards to be able to stop her. If Ash score 15+ then Aaliyah can score 20+ and Paige can score 25+. Then the game will be ours.

On defense, I think Nika can annoy Caitlin's shots just enough to hold her under 30. They depend on Stuelke and Martin scoring 12+ points each, but Paige and Aaliyah will make this much more difficult. Also, the loss of Molly Davis hurts their offensive and defensive flow. Affolter and Marshall are not going to be able to score much over Ash and KK, and if KK or Nika start hitting shots, this will be a long night for the Hawkeyes.

So, the question is, who on UConn will find their stroke and be able to support Paige and Aaliyah? It could be any of them, but I'm betting on Ash. She is really the key.

I'm predicting an 8 point UConn win, something on the order of 81-73

I worry about Kate Martin, as she can easily hit a bunch of 3’s. I remember her doing so the last time both teams played at the Nike Tournament, in Portland, Oregon. That’s the game where Caitlin Clark told her teammates about a girl (Nika) stuck to her face, while Azzi displayed her talent. Iowa’s Gabby Marshall is no fluke either as she helps stabilize their scoring strength. But although both teams’ rosters are different, I believe in UConn and will continue to cheer them on, no matter the outcome. Go UConn! Go Huskies!

 

[Bone Dog]

I worry about Kate Martin, as she can easily hit a bunch of 3’s. I remember her doing so the last time both teams played at the Nike Tournament, in Portland, Oregon.

Every time I mention that game as an indicator of what this game might be like, a chorus of voices (ok mainly @The deacon) tells me the teams are so different now. Now I say, if they’re different then let it be that Martin doesn’t shoot as well. I mean, she couldn’t shoot any better than she did in that previous game.

So, I leave it to all of the UConn doubters, are the teams similar or are they totally different? You can’t have it both ways.

 

[HuskyNan]

1. I have a French name that has been misspelled all my life. This is not worth fussing over.

2. good, we're on the same page.

3. CaitlYYYYYn has been static too in regard to her offense. She still shoots 3s -- they haven't invented a 4 point shot, have they? She's still a good passer. And she is still a talented but underutilized defender. There has been no great transformation of her skills, her speed, or her on-court persona. Incremental improvement only. Nika shoots a little more, but this isn't a sea-change. She seems a little quicker this post-season, mainly because she hasn't been quite so worn down by the regular season. Also her ankle seems to be bothering her less than last season. I expect Caitlin will find Nika to be every bit as difficult to deal with as she was 18 months ago.

As for the targets of Caitlin's passes, Kate Martin is very much what she was last season, a good rebounder and defender and a streaky shooter. Sydney Affolter is a step down from Morgan Warnock, and Hannah Stuelke is quicker and more athletic than Czinano, and is more or less attuned to Caitlin's instincts. But she is not nearly as strong as Monica was and not as skilled in the low post. She is not nearly as strong as Aaliyah either and will struggle to contain her without fouling. O'Grady can give her a breather, but she is rather slower than Hannah or Aaliyah and not nearly the offensive threat. I'm not sure Goodman will be available, but she is certainly not any more skilled than O'Grady. When O'Grady comes in, expect Paige and Aaliyah to engineer a scoring run.

If Iowa is going to win, Caitlin will have to score 40+ and Martin and Stuelke will have to score 15+ each. It's not impossible, but bear in mind it won't be Haley Van Lith covering Caitlin this time. My prediction is she'll score a respectable 25 or so, Stuelke will struggle with fouls all game and Martin will shoot well but only score 12. On the other side, Paige will also score a respectable 25 or so. But Aaliyah will score 24 and Ash will score 20. It could go totally the other way, but I don't think that's likely.

The Huskies had great ball denial vs USC. The best defense is keeping the ball out of Caitlin’s hands. You can’t force her to a spot where she’s uncomfortable unless you can make her stop at midrange so the Huskies should try to force other to take the shots from spots where they’re uncomfortable shooting

 

[darkstar1]

Without getting too deep into analysis of each players strengths and weaknesses,,my conclusion is that UConn, assuming both teams play to their potential, is better at every position. I really don’t see the game being close, unless of course the refs are inconsistent and UConn gets in serious foul trouble. Doesn’t matter to me how many points Clark scores. More important is how many shots it takes her to get to 30 or 40. If she scores 40 I still say UConn wins by 10 or so, as she will have a hard time getting there with the gnat pestering her. Giving 3 1/2 to USC was a much tougher decision than actually receiving points from Iowa. Seems like a gift from Vegas based on the Iowa love from uneducated bettors.

 

[Bone Dog]

The Huskies had great ball denial vs USC. The best defense is keeping the ball out of Caitlin’s hands. You can’t force her to a spot where she’s uncomfortable unless you can make her stop at midrange so the Huskies should try to force other to take the shots from spots where they’re uncomfortable shooting

This sounds right. Also, it’s hard to play ball denial if Caitlin already has it, which is true of most of their sets. She’s the pg, she brings the ball up the floor, which is also why pressing doesn’t really work well against Iowa. But UConn can limit who she can pass to. She’ll get her points — I have no doubt — but if Paige & Co can slow down Martin and Stuelke they have a good shot at winning.

 

[BrewHawk]

Without getting too deep into analysis of each players strengths and weaknesses,,my conclusion is that UConn, assuming both teams play to their potential, is better at every position. I really don’t see the game being close, unless of course the refs are inconsistent and UConn gets in serious foul trouble. Doesn’t matter to me how many points Clark scores. More important is how many shots it takes her to get to 30 or 40. If she scores 40 I still say UConn wins by 10 or so, as she will have a hard time getting there with the gnat pestering her. Giving 3 1/2 to USC was a much tougher decision than actually receiving points from Iowa. Seems like a gift from Vegas based on the Iowa love from uneducated bettors.

...except for one.

 

[hoophuskee]

Without getting too deep into analysis of each players strengths and weaknesses,,my conclusion is that UConn, assuming both teams play to their potential, is better at every position. I really don’t see the game being close, unless of course the refs are inconsistent and UConn gets in serious foul trouble. Doesn’t matter to me how many points Clark scores. More important is how many shots it takes her to get to 30 or 40. If she scores 40 I still say UConn wins by 10 or so, as she will have a hard time getting there with the gnat pestering her. Giving 3 1/2 to USC was a much tougher decision than actually receiving points from Iowa. Seems like a gift from Vegas based on the Iowa love from uneducated bettors.

Don't know who will win - another “pick em’.” In regard to UCONN they haven't blown out anyone since rd 1. IMO very, very small chance for a comfortable win by UCONN. A win certainly possible – pick ‘em.

UCONN may have more talent but they are also very young - the players getting the most minutes are the 4 freshmen (counting Brady) of their top 7. IMO freshmen are freshmen. I never believe "freshmen are no longer freshmen in their frosh year" just because you gave them more minutes. Other than Stewart- what other freshmen has ever led their team to a title? Chaminique? While UCONN has Paige to lead—this team is heavy dependent upon Freshmen which makes them Imo much more “volatile.”

 

[MSGRET]

Massey has UConn at -3.5 today, up a point.

On Massey site he shows Iowa having a 44% chance of winning and giving UConn a 56% chance of winning. His final score is 80-77 UConn.