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IOWA -2.5

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Cuango said:
Of course, I’m pulling for UConn to win but it’s pretty clear this team (Iowa) is greatly improved everywhere but in the post. Czinano was a force in those earlier teams and is now gone. The guards around Clark are much better and will make this game more competitive than the previous ones.
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Stuelke is not a bad post player, she brings a different skill set than Czinano. She runs the floor extremely well and is a nice complement to Clark
 
Bone Dog said:
They’re sort of like Creighton but with an offensive superstar added in. But Nika knows how to defend Caitlyn.
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Exactly! Except for Clark, the Iowa team is a pretty good Big East team -- not big or overly athletic, but well-coached, smart, and experienced. If you can imagine what (Creighton, Marquette, Villanova) would be if Caitlin Clark parachuted onto their roster, that is Iowa.

In a way, that's what Villanova was like a year ago, when Maddy Siegrist was on their roster. No, Maddy is not Caitlin Clark, but she was good enough to be a high first-round WNBA pick a year ago. UConn handled last year's Villanova team multiple times without breaking too much of a sweat (although the first game was close).
 
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I like our chances. CC is the catalyst of that offense. Keep her under pressure and dribbling instead of her having 5 feet of space to scan the whole court and pass or pull up. She's an incredible talent, but she's not invincible. I haven't seen her play a ton of defense either.. so whoever she's guarding.. attack her.
 
Who is easier to guard against for UConn, JuJu or CC? I think JuJu’s height was difficult … UConn has a better chance with CC. But foul trouble could be something hard to overcome.
 
The deacon said:
Maybe Caitlin, Bone Dog?

By the way, they're sort of like Creighton how?

I suspect Nika might find Caitlin a different player, emotionally and especially physically, than 18 months ago.
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1. I go with the spelling my AI gives me. It’s not worth the trouble to argue with SkyNet.
2. They’re like Creighton in that they aren’t real big in the post. No one bigger than Aaliyah. And they scrap for loose balls. Gabby Marshall could fit right in at Creighton.
3. … and Nika has remained perfectly static over 18 months?
 
PhillyCoach said:
Iowa is the smartest team that UConn will face this season. They move well and their #2 and #3 players have scored over 20 points each this past game. That's at least 3 top scorers. They play fast and run all game. They are similar in height and athletics. They are more experienced across the board. IMHO it will be a close game. A "who has the ball last" type of game. UConn defense is stronger, but Iowa shooters have been a little more consistent recently. Go UConn!
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correct. It will come down to how many points KK and Ash can score. Aaliyah and Paige should get theirs, Nika should hit a couple of threes. If Ash and KK can give us 25 points total we have a chance. But that's asking a lot from KK and Ash, especially from what I've seen from Shade the last two games. However, I feel better about matching up against Iowa vs. LSU.
 
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hussybulldog said:
Who is easier to guard against for UConn, JuJu or CC? I think JuJu’s height was difficult … UConn has a better chance with CC. But foul trouble could be something hard to overcome.
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I agree Juju seems like a harder matchup. She’s tall and strong and has a midrange game. She obviously doesn’t have the 3 point limit CC does. CC has no midrange game, she either pulls a 3 or does a layup, she doesn’t seem to like shooting the midrange or floaters either.
 
SLY63 said:
I think we need limit open looks for the supporting cast. I'd give Clark 35 point, but limit the others. We could put up 80 points.
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That's just it. Caitlin has never had a great supporting cast around her. She makes those around her better. If Iowa had Cameron Brink or Reagan Beers in the post/pf position, Iowa would be a much stronger team. I think Iowa is just 6'5" superstar away from top dawg.
 
PhillyCoach said:
Iowa is the smartest team that UConn will face this season. They move well and their #2 and #3 players have scored over 20 points each this past game. That's at least 3 top scorers. They play fast and run all game. They are similar in height and athletics. They are more experienced across the board. IMHO it will be a close game. A "who has the ball last" type of game. UConn defense is stronger, but Iowa shooters have been a little more consistent recently. Go UConn!
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Actually they have only had two players beside Clark score more than 20 points in a game over the past 5 games. Hannah Steulke scored 25 in the overtime win against Nebraska in the Big 10 title game. Kate Martin scored 21 against LSU in the Regional Final game. The only player to score 20+ points every game is Clark.
 
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SLY63 said:
I think we need limit open looks for the supporting cast. I'd give Clark 35 point, but limit the others. We could put up 80 points.
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That’s what LSU did last night. Put Nika on Caitlin much of the time and Paige on her some of the time. Make her life difficult and give her different looks. She’s not just a scorer, she’s their main facilitator and the heartbeat of their offense. Make her life difficult, the team’s life is difficult.
 
mhshuskies said:
But she no AE!
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Not yet, but she's closing fast... she was the Big Ten Sixth Player of the year in '22-23 as a freshman, had 47 points vs. a competitive Penn State team this winter and scored 25 points in the Big Ten tournament championship game.
 
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Bone Dog said:
1. I go with the spelling my AI gives me. It’s not worth the trouble to argue with SkyNet.
2. They’re like Creighton in that they aren’t real big in the post. No one bigger than Aaliyah. And they scrap for loose balls. Gabby Marshall could fit right in at Creighton.
3. … and Nika has remained perfectly static over 18 months?
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I'm sorry to hear that, Bone Dog. I always feel the effort to spell a person's name correctly is well worth it.

Agreed with those points.

I'd never call Nika static in any regard;), but to me, the improvement she's made in the last 18 months has been as a slightly more willing shooter, which isn't necessarily relevant here.
 
Heytherego said:
I agree Juju seems like a harder matchup. She’s tall and strong and has a midrange game. She obviously doesn’t have the 3 point limit CC does. CC has no midrange game, she either pulls a 3 or does a layup, she doesn’t seem to like shooting the midrange or floaters either.
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JuJu finished her season shooting 17 of 57 over the last two games. Let her shoot!
 
As always, Paige's task is a lot easier the more her teammates score. Ash was the rock in the first two rounds, but has had a harder time scoring since. But her defense has not faltered.

My prediction for our offense is that Ash will find open shots again, mainly because I don't expect Iowa's guards to be able to stop her. If Ash score 15+ then Aaliyah can score 20+ and Paige can score 25+. Then the game will be ours.

On defense, I think Nika can annoy Caitlin's shots just enough to hold her under 30. They depend on Stuelke and Martin scoring 12+ points each, but Paige and Aaliyah will make this much more difficult. Also, the loss of Molly Davis hurts their offensive and defensive flow. Affolter and Marshall are not going to be able to score much over Ash and KK, and if KK or Nika start hitting shots, this will be a long night for the Hawkeyes.

So, the question is, who on UConn will find their stroke and be able to support Paige and Aaliyah? It could be any of them, but I'm betting on Ash. She is really the key.

I'm predicting an 8 point UConn win, something on the order of 81-73
 
The deacon said:
I'm sorry to hear that, Bone Dog. I always feel the effort to spell a person's name correctly is well worth it.

Agreed with those points.

I'd never call Nika static in any regard;), but to me, the improvement she's made in the last 18 months has been as a slightly more willing shooter, which isn't necessarily relevant here.
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1. I have a French name that has been misspelled all my life. This is not worth fussing over.

2. good, we're on the same page.

3. CaitlYYYYYn has been static too in regard to her offense. She still shoots 3s -- they haven't invented a 4 point shot, have they? She's still a good passer. And she is still a talented but underutilized defender. There has been no great transformation of her skills, her speed, or her on-court persona. Incremental improvement only. Nika shoots a little more, but this isn't a sea-change. She seems a little quicker this post-season, mainly because she hasn't been quite so worn down by the regular season. Also her ankle seems to be bothering her less than last season. I expect Caitlin will find Nika to be every bit as difficult to deal with as she was 18 months ago.

As for the targets of Caitlin's passes, Kate Martin is very much what she was last season, a good rebounder and defender and a streaky shooter. Sydney Affolter is a step down from Morgan Warnock, and Hannah Stuelke is quicker and more athletic than Czinano, and is more or less attuned to Caitlin's instincts. But she is not nearly as strong as Monica was and not as skilled in the low post. She is not nearly as strong as Aaliyah either and will struggle to contain her without fouling. O'Grady can give her a breather, but she is rather slower than Hannah or Aaliyah and not nearly the offensive threat. I'm not sure Goodman will be available, but she is certainly not any more skilled than O'Grady. When O'Grady comes in, expect Paige and Aaliyah to engineer a scoring run.

If Iowa is going to win, Caitlin will have to score 40+ and Martin and Stuelke will have to score 15+ each. It's not impossible, but bear in mind it won't be Haley Van Lith covering Caitlin this time. My prediction is she'll score a respectable 25 or so, Stuelke will struggle with fouls all game and Martin will shoot well but only score 12. On the other side, Paige will also score a respectable 25 or so. But Aaliyah will score 24 and Ash will score 20. It could go totally the other way, but I don't think that's likely.
 
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Topdawg said:
Our last two games vs. Iowa.
UConn wins 92:72 in 2021
UConn wins 86:79 in 2022

I like our chances!
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Me too, even as an underdog. ESPN reports that Geno has beaten a #1 seed 9 times in the NCAA tourney. Some of those might have been where UConn faced off against another #1 in the championship game. But we face another #1 Friday night, and if successful, probably another #1 on Sunday.
 
Kind of interesting in UCONN’s tournament run we’ve faced teams with highly talented scoring guards (Fair from Syracuse, Juju, now CC)
 
And..../but......would..../will..... either team....win.....the......n....e....x....t.......g...a...m...e........??????????
 
The deacon said:
Maybe Caitlin, Bone Dog?

By the way, they're sort of like Creighton how?

I suspect Nika might find Caitlin a different player, emotionally and especially physically, than 18 months ago.


As you said in an ensuing message, Charlie, 'don't sell Iowa short'... many here assume the Hawkeyes are just a bunch of back-country kids who happen to have Clark as a teammate. I've watched nearly all of their games and I'll opine that Iowa is an athletic team, and probably stronger, person for person, than the Huskies.

LSU was the first team to out-rebound Iowa since back in the regular season. I will predict a UConn win 'cause I'm foremost a Huskies fan, but Iowa is eight or nine deep and never seems to tire.

My wish for the game is that both Paige and Caitlin enjoy good games, and foul trouble for anyone on either side isn't a factor.
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What an amazing run both teams have had. I say this of Iowa considering- I'm not so sure they get elite recruits other than The Great Caitlin Clark. And make no mistake for anyone on the fence - she is an All-Time Great. That team's transformation into a Powerhouse from their season last year and then backing it up for this year is amazing. And the word "amazing" doesn't do what's transpired - justice.

And the same goes for Paige. She's an All-Time great. And every one of the player’s on this team (which also most definitely means the ones unable to play) - I just have so much respect for -- it's the reason why I've followed WCBB for these many years. And a couple of weird things I am also so proud of is 1.) our team and all the players and the staff- - but 2.) the other teams and coaches I have a ton of respect for (for the record I also like Kim and never had any problems with LSU).

Just super proud of the team -- and while I absolutely love the attention the game is now getting - I taped some of the media hyping up the games today, and the discussion of Paige vs Caitlin ofc already started. But a pet-peeve of mine will be after the game - one of these two all-time greats might get minimized by some because they didn't win it all. IMO that would be complete nonsense. Thee two are so amazing and I hope neither gets minimized. But I do love that the attention the game is getting. It’s what I have always felt about this game.

Anyhow - just saying I'm so proud of our team (and the wccbb game in general) doesn't do it's justice. How they came together like this – it’s all heart of a champion even if they get knocked off. IMO from what they were – no way this should have happened. So as you say or imply - hoping for a great game (ofc a UCONN win) - I love scoring so in the 80's I love it. And on the other side – the other game- I like Dawn and Wes too. This has been so much of a win-win.
 
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