What's wrong with 15 teams? I realize it may not be ideal but, seriously, is it worse than losing UConn to the ACC?
1) That wasn't me that said anything about UNC.
2) Says a Purdue fan? Irony.
Note that I never use such a term, although I always state "Big Ten" instead of that recent "B1G" attempt at rebranding by that conference. Likewise, I never call that school in Los Angeles by the name "USC". I always use the traditional "Southern Cal", but I never use some sort of disparaging moniker when discussing schools/conferences.
Shouldn't we consider the degree that a given school wants to be in the Big Ten? I understand that there is not a practical business model for Akron or Wayne State, but to use a relevant model for two, known candidates, UConn and UNC. Both are state flagships and public research universities. UNC is in the AAU, but UConn's academics stand well with many that reside there.
When one thinks of the potential resistance to a Northern conference in Chapel Hill, and contrasts this the seeming sentiment of acceptance from UConn, GOR aside, how is UNC a serious long-term consideration? I think that the revenue metrics have to work, but we should remember that 4 teams left the Big 12 for reasons besides money. Under the surface, in the long term, conferences tend to rise or fall on the relations between the members.
XOVERX does make one really compelling point that stands out... while Virginia and/or UNC might ultimately be the Big Ten's bigger target(s), Kansas might be the more suitable partner that gets UConn into the Big Ten without issue.
If one accepts that UVA only leaves the ACC with UNC, then partnering the two might leave UConn without a spot. One could assume they wind up in the ACC, but if UVA and UNC leave, the ACC will be obliterated by the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12. On the other hand, Kansas might actually be willing to entertain the offer without condition and would make a perfect pair for UConn. Plus, that could unseat the Big 12 and if the B1G has any hope of landing Oklahoma/Texas, that would be the scenario in which it happens.
I've stated all along I believe UVA and UNC are interested in the Big Ten. I also believe UNC would not leave unless others left first. I don't feel as strongly about Virginia not doing that, but I also think they'd be reluctant to leave without UNC coming right behind. So yes, it's certainly possible this is UConn's biggest obstacle. Kansas might alleviate that problem, even though going that route might smother the Big Ten's hopes of going further south in the Mid-Atlantic.
Under any of these circumstances, I think the Big10 would then push for 18 schools. I think the real question that needs to be answered is who will partner with UConn. By adding Rutgers, the Big10 is making a public push for a Northeast footprint that has to include UConn. Logistically, that leaves the Big 10 at 15. Clearly, UVA would be the top choice and together with phase 1 (Rutgers and MD) would become the "grand slam" the BTN was looking for-Chicago, NYC, DC, parts of Boston!!!! Kansas is probably a distant second choice. I can't under any realistic circumstance see UNC coming North.
When you are predicting the demise of the ACC just remember you are betting against the most financially powerful media entity in human history.
As other leagues have spread content around it's going to be increasingly difficult to tell where ESPN starts and the ACC ends.
Yes. I think if launching an ACC network shows to be a money-losing proposition (for ESPN), that ESPN will then either: a) launch the network anyway as a conduit to increase ACC revenue, or b) increase ACC payments (without a network) "just because".
... because with Fox getting more and more of the Big 12, Pac-12, and Big Ten, ESPN is NOT going to cede UVa, UNC, Duke, and Florida State quietly. (And although ESPN also owns all of SEC [save Tier 3], I think the gains to the SEC [for ESPN] for adding these schools is minimal compared to the devastation to the ACC [and for ESPN] if the ACC loses these schools.)
Live by the sword, (perhaps eventually) die by the sword. The ACC and ESPN.
So if in ten years, the SEC and the Big Ten continue to zoom away from the other conferences and the ACC continues to lag the Pac 12 and Big 12, maybe you see the two markets that really have some value, NC and Va, start to look at a move south.
I don't think they've got enough for a network.
It's their house network for the flagship. They will figure if out. I really don't think any of them want to leave.
VPI and NCSU would be sufficient to give the SEC the NC and Va markets -- as well as a more "SEC-compatible" atmosphere than their in-state superiors. But as FranktheTank has long asserted -- and the recent GoR does corroborate -- the ACC is stronger and more unified than SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 *fans* like to admit. We'll all just wait to see what happens in the early 2020s, but "ACC destruction" talk before then is not based in logic.
I think you have nailed it. Right now, none of the ACC teams want to leave. That's pretty apparent. For the visting BiG fans who claim with a straight face that UMD was selected ahead of UNC or UVA, I don't know what to say. IMO, UMD was selected AFTER discussions with UVA and UNC likely went nowehere.
Another aspect that is being completely overlooked in all of this is branding/content. Away from demographics and tv sets, one can argue the Big10 has a lot to lose by not adding UConn. Outside of Ohio State and Wisconsin, for some time now Big 10 football has been average at best and extremely top heavy. With or without UConn, this will most likely continue. Clearly, what UConn can bring is elite basketball. Coupled with Kansas, the Big 10 would become the premiere hoops league. I realize this isn't as important as football, it should be a close second. Over the long-term, the BTN can ill afford to be average at both.
VPI and NCSU would be sufficient to give the SEC the NC and Va markets -- as well as a more "SEC-compatible" atmosphere than their in-state superiors. But as FranktheTank has long asserted -- and the recent GoR does corroborate -- the ACC is stronger and more unified than SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 *fans* like to admit. We'll all just wait to see what happens in the early 2020s, but "ACC destruction" talk before then is not based in logic.
Quite simply, you're wrong. Sometimes you think, sometimes you know.
The negotiations with Maryland had nothing to do with Virginia/UNC's interest or perceived lack thereof. They wanted Maryland on their own merits and because they were already contiguous to the Big Ten footprint. That's a fact. NYC/DC television markets... why is that so hard for you to grasp? They REALLY wanted those.
Spin it however you want, but just know you're incorrect in doing so.
I think we're seeing that North Carolina is far closer to the SEC ideal than we previously thought - right now, half the SEC is doing a slow clap in appreciation for the fake class gambit.
I'm not sure you can say that a school leaving isn't based in logic - after all, one school is leaving in three weeks and we're barely a year removed from the conference's premier football member begging an invite from the SEC. The foundation has a fresh coat of paint, but the cracks are recent.
If it comes to pass that the SEC and Big Ten are cashing checks $15-$20M higher than ACC schools, someone will start to think about it.
That's pretty apparent. For the visting BiG fans who claim with a straight face that UMD was selected ahead of UNC or UVA, I don't know what to say. IMO, UMD was selected AFTER discussions with UVA and UNC likely went nowehere.
There is every indication that B1G's scouting involves extreme passive sonar ("we're listening") and very little active pinging. Public records request seem to confirm that after examining emails between UNC administrators in reaction to Maryland's announcement. Same goes with UVA's athletic director. I don't have those links, but there is every indication that they were surprised. The logical conclusion is that there were no discussions with UVA and UNC, certainly not to the extent that has been suggested.
“Wow! Big $$$ if this is accurate.”
If Virginia, Florida State, etc. started leaving the ACC, the Big Ten would have as good a shot at getting UNC as anyone. While their fans do tend to prefer the SEC, their administration and the folks up in the board of regents tend to favor the Big Ten by the sound of things.
Ultimately, the UNC administration and BOGs will listen to what the big money donors tell them to do. Whichever league the majority of them decide upon will be where Carolina would end up.
It won't be a guarantee, but getting UVA might be the key to getting UNC. And, as even UVA fans have said, there's no way UVA would go to the SEC.
The administrations at both universities are pretty tight. And, they'd both pick the B1G. UNC's money folks are not all in favor of a move there, though, where I feel pretty sure UVA's would be. That said, the two schools would like to stay together, if at all possible.
But again, there's no doubt that UNC is only possible if other things happen first.
That is the absolute truth. UNC won't allow itself to be the one accused of bringing about the ACC's breakup.
I suppose we could debate the feasibility of UVA leaving first until we're Carolina Blue in the face, but the point I'm making is that while Virginia would be the first choice of a partner for UConn, Kansas might be the more readily attainable option.
VPI and NCSU would be sufficient to give the SEC the NC and Va markets -- as well as a more "SEC-compatible" atmosphere than their in-state superiors.
Both Mike Slive and Jim Delany know full well that whichever league got UNC and UVA would control the TV market in those states. If both of those ended up in the B1G, the SECN might be a tougher sell in both states.
But as FranktheTank has long asserted -- and the recent GoR does corroborate -- the ACC is stronger and more unified than SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 *fans* like to admit. We'll all just wait to see what happens in the early 2020s, but "ACC destruction" talk before then is not based in logic.
Quite simply, you're wrong. Sometimes you think, sometimes you know.
The negotiations with Maryland had nothing to do with Virginia/UNC's interest or perceived lack thereof. They wanted Maryland on their own merits and because they were already contiguous to the Big Ten footprint. That's a fact. NYC/DC television markets... why is that so hard for you to grasp? They REALLY wanted those.
Spin it however you want, but just know you're incorrect in doing so.