As a B12 alum (Texas), I also think it will be the B12 that craters and not the ACC.
There are 3 keys to the continued viability of the B12, and in order of importance those keys are: Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. However, the importance of the schools is actually an inverted pyramid because Texas can definitely be forced by Oklahoma, and Oklahoma might play along with Kansas if Kansas took a hankering to leave the B12. Thus, Kansas may actually turn out to be the critical domino in the demise of the B12. Here's what I mean ....
Texas' LHN has now found national carriage with DISH and DirecTV will probably be on-board with the LHN by the end of 2014. The LHN will almost certainly prove to give Texas a nice boost in national recruiting, plus there is the prestige factor involved with having your very own 24/7/365 national network dedicated to all things Longhorn. Thus, Texas wants mightily to keep the B12 glued together since it is not at all clear that any other major conference would allow Texas to keep the LHN in its current form if Texas ever migrated out of the B12. Texas, then, is strong for the continued viability of the B12 into the long and distant future.
The glue to Texas' keeping the B12 together is Oklahoma. With the losses of Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Missouri, obviously several good football schools in the B12 have been ripped out, leaving only Texas and Oklahoma as recognized football anchors. The B12 is not viable for Texas as the only football power if Oklahoma were ever to migrate out of the B12. So, really, Oklahoma carries a trump card over Texas, "keep us happy or maybe watch your LHN go bye-bye".
Which brings us to Kansas. While I have no information as to the thinking of Kansas' PTB, I can tell you anecdotally that there appears to be a sizable majority of Kansas folks that would like to see Kansas move out of the B12 and into the B1G. And why not? The B12 is severely weakened by previous defections and the B12 footprint has shrunk drastically -- basically to Kansas City and the State of Texas (both of which are shared with the SEC). More importantly, the B12 is not drawing TV viewers outside of the limited B12 footprint. In fact, the B12 is severely slipping in TV ratings behind the SEC in the City of Houston. Also, Kansas lost its major rival in Mizz to the SEC. There is little remaining loyalty to the B12 among Kansas folks that I can glean.
Out of B1G territory, the rumor is that the B1G may have some interest in Kansas, especially if things don't work out for the B1G in adding any more eastern schools. This is not particularly earth-shaking news since Kansas is AAU, the founder of basketball, a basketball powerhouse, is contiguous to the B1G, and therefore brings significant value to the B1G (and the B1G to Kansas). There is every reason to believe that Kansas would be attractive to the B1G, at least in a back-up plan capacity. Personally, I think that if the B1g offered Kansas toward the end of the B12 GOR, and before the GOR is re-upped, Kansas would accept a BiG offer in a heartbeat. This is assumption #1.
How would a Kansas defection, if it happened, affect Texas? Texas wouldn't like a Kansas defection -- not at all -- but Kansas -> B1G wouldn't likely shake Texas out of the B12. So long as Oklahoma stays in the B1G, I have no doubt Texas stays put.
How would a Kansas defection affect Oklahoma? Here I think things get interesting. Oklahoma's PTB yearn for academic validation. Both Boren and Castiglione have been quoted to the effect that they want to raise OU's academics to the first rank. They don't get academic validation in the truncated B12, and, frankly, probably never will. They don't get it in the SEC, no matter how many new AAU schools the SEC has added in the recent past (Mizz and A&M). Oklahoma would get academic validation in the B1G, being able to join the CIC, with fast-track toward AAU membership. Oklahoma would also re-establish the OU-NU rivalry, no small matter. I also think the Sooners would guess that they could preserve OU-Texas even if Texas didn't follow them to the B1G. I think, if offered by the B1G (that's a big "if"), there is a very distinct probability that Oklahoma would follow Kansas to the B1G. OU to the B1G is assumption #2 (and is the weakest of the assumptions).
Thus would Texas' hand be called out. Texas cannot remain in the B12 without Oklahoma because without OU, the B12 loses its last remaining football anchor (other than Texas). If KU and OU defected, ushering in the final crisis of the B12, Texas could probably pick the conference that gave it the best deal on its LHN. To me, the B1G has the most ability to fold in the LHN into the BTN, and, financially, give Texas the best deal there. My guess is that for Texas it would boil down to the B1G and the SEC in the end, with the PAC as an outside possibility. If Texas did join the B1G -- and I personally think we would -- then UConn suddenly comes into focus.
A league of 17 is disjointed. A league of 18 is not as manageable as a league of 20, due to the symmetry of pods, but a league of 18 can work adequately, schedule-wise.
There are a lot of wild-cards.
For example, right now, the B12 grosses more money "per school" than any other conference. If this continues, nobody -- including Kansas -- is going to want to leave the B12. But if the B1G really does begin to gross $44.5M per school beginning in 2017, as rumored, then that might persuade Kansas to hesitate before agreeing to re-up the B12 GOR when that time arises. The B12 is expected to reach $40M-$45M per school, but not until the 2025 time-frame. In 2025, the B1g will undoubtedly be grossing much, much more than $44.5M per school since these TV contracts are always back-loaded. Assumption #3 is that the B1G grosses around $44.5M beginning in 2017, with payouts increasing thereafter.
Also, I think Delany prefers to expand with east coast schools down the eastern seaboard, not schools in the prairie states. I think the B1G is determined to wait out MY-ACC to see if UVA shakes out of the ACC, and then add UVA and some other school to balance out UVA. I used to think that other school would be UConn, but now, after synthesizing dayooper's information about BC upthread (via FtT), I am not so sure. Maybe BC looks a whole lot better to the B1G than I previously realized.
At any rate, if UVA doesn't shake out, then Delany may decide to examine a potential B12 gambit to the west. Delany's said he doesn't want to be responsible for destroying a conference, but maybe that was just talk for public consumption, to make him sound like "a good guy after all." In truth and fact, it appears inevitable today that either the B12 or the ACC is going to be destroyed at some point in the next 10 years. You pick.
If Delany does pull out KU, OU, and Texas from the B12, then I think UConn would be sitting pretty because there's no guarantee at that point that the ACC will ever fracture beyond the loss of Maryland. The ACC GOR might well keep the ACC intact if the B12 is wrecked. And there's UConn at #18 with no GOR to get in the way.
I think B1G and SEC raids on the ACC produce the worst case scenario for UConn. If the B1G and the SEC successfully dismantle the ACC, that might well freeze UConn out of the B1G, in favor of BC, leaving UConn with an option to join a crippled ACC, or, as a remote possibility, a crippled and distant B12. Neither being good choices for UConn, I should think. Of course, there's still the possibility that FtT's information is dated or wrong, and maybe the B1G does esteem UConn more than BC, so there's that, too.
Still ... from the pov of UConn to the B1G, I think it is better for the B1G to raid the B12 and not the ACC. UConn's great advantage is that they are not subject to a GOR. Again, this is all JMO.
