Ice and Jana....what am I missing?

[cohenzone]

I guess i understand why these questions come up, but i think there is a bit of very premature conclusions. Jana is just where Ice was last year. She missed all of last year and it wasn’t just any year, it was to have been her first year, so she has nothing to fall back on. We all know that bigs often take longer to get up to speed.let alone missing year one. Ice is coming through her learning curve pretty well. Hopefully Jana is too. There are signs. .

 

[BBallF]

Interesting that the thread starter omitted defense from the analysis. Geno, I suspect, gives it serious consideration.

Very serious consideration. The floor game, which is also high on Geno's list, is traditionally defined as defense, rebounding, assists, steals, loose balls and not points. You have experience in Ice you don't have in Jana. Let Geno bring Jana along. It's all about March and April not December. He's not bad at it.

 

[BBallF]

This is so underrated yet so important. It goes under the radar until you lose.

Exactly. I had a friend who also played college hoops and he had a coach who was fond of saying that you can often see the difference in the game by looking at the free throws. We have been talking about this regularly. Since her second shot is usually dead on, I think the only think that is needed is the same thing you need to get to Carnegie Hall.

 

[oldhusky]

Tossing in some more data to chew on -- a simple efficiency number for each player. It represents good things (pts, RB, etc.) minus bad things (TO, missed shots) per game. No attempt to determine the likely cost of each bad thing, not including fouls, not taking opponent into consideration, etc., etc. Those things (and some other useful data) would require parsing the play-by-play listings and I am successfully resisting that so far.

Note that the values are on a per-game basis, not per-40.

The actual formula: = ((Pts+TRB+Asst+Stl+Blk) – ((FGA-FGM)+(FTA-FTM)+TO))

if this looks like it could be useful, let me know whether you'd like me to leave it in the spreadsheet and/or add it to the per-40 grid as well.

Have fun.

The Huskies to date with my efficiency value in the far-right column:
View attachment 105372

The thing to remember about efficiency numbers is that they still are affected by minutes played per game. Yes there are negatives to offset positives in the stats, but almost all players have a positive efficiency number and if you play twice as many minutes per game your efficiency at the same rate would be twice as high. Efficiency per game divided by minutes per game would be a better indicator, and elevate Jana over Ice by a sizable margin, and Azzi farther ahead of KK, Ash, and Kaitlin.

 

[Longtime fan]

After 8 games, I think a clear pattern is emerging. Ice continues to start each game and plays 30% more minutes than Jana. Yet, I would posit that Jana is more impactful in games. I can't speak to any differences in practices but in actual games, here is what I refer to: Jana leads Ice in total rebounds 46 to 33, Jana has twice as many steals, and Jana leads in points 58 to 49. At the same time, Jana has less fouls 14 to 19, and less turnovers 9 to 12.

Thanks to the great analysis supplied by JRRRJ, we can also compare Ice and Jana on a "per 40 minutes" basis. When we do, the far greater positive contribution of Jana is even more clear: Jana out rebounds Ice 14.15 to 7.81, she gets 2 and a half times as many steals and out scores Ice by 17.85 to 11.6.

The only area where Ice greatly bests Jana is in assists but I think that is explained by being less aggressive when she gets the ball under the basket. When Jana gets such possessions, her mindset is to score, while Ice simply scores less and will often look to outlet the ball rather than taking it to the hoop.

My point is I hope clear, Jana simply contributes more to our winning than Ice and the actual in game statistics make that clear. With a quarter of the season in the books, I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role.

I think we need them both. Each has a far higher ceiling than we have seen. Be patient.

 

[JellyBean]

There is nothing to miss between Ice and Jana. They both are making improvements, helping the team, and doing whatever needs to be done out there on the court.

 

[Cuango]

Huh? Let’s address some of these points:
Cochran in her 5 years of WCBB has alway had foul trouble issues including 3 games this year against UCLA, Colorado and Oklahoma where she fouled out. Ice did not create those fouls. Ice has zero back to the basket moves and consistently uses a fall away jumper as her in the paint move. Her outside shooting isn’t just “suspect”-it’s downright terrible so “spreading the floor” isn’t going to work against smart teams who will dare Ice to shoot.
Jana is still learning the elite competition game and she is improving but Ice deserves to start…for now. Ultimately Jana will be the post player and maybe Ice’s shooting will improve to warrant playing her at the same time.

A little harsh on the “zero back to the basket” moves. I have seen her repeatedly posting up and scoring on back to the basket moves! Yes, she does not do it nearly enough and is still not very good at it when she does attempt them but credit where credit is due, she is trying (and more often succeeding) than she ever has before! Geno has been encouraging her to use mor post up moves down low and I think she is (slowly) getting more confident in her ability to be successful there. Obviously it is not a “strength” and may never be, but she is at least making an effort. I’m actually quite pleased with both our bigs. Sure, I’d like to see Jana get more minutes but I think Geno has it well in hand.

 

[oldude]

Some BY’ers have alluded to this, but I will say it more directly. There is a big difference in UConn’s offensive flow and movement when Ice is in the game vs Jana. Ice moves better, sets screens, posts in the paint and also steps outside. When the ball finds Ice, she makes a quick decision to pass it or shoot it. In short, Ice understands the offense. She’s also better at playing team defense, i.e. switching, body position, etc.

That’s not to say that Jana isn’t good and getting better. Jana posts up like a bull in a China shop. She can rebound in traffic. I love Jana’s ability to score with either hand around the basket. She will eventually start and play big minutes for the Huskies. Whether that happens this year or next remains to be seen.

For now, I am ecstatic that UConn has two talented players that can play in the post.

 

[packwrap]

You are underestimating the value of your post being able to step out to the three point line to be a 16.7 percent shooter.

This made me howl.

Ice v Jana, a beautiful problem to have. They both have a similar game and are both getting good minutes. Ice a bit more mobile, Jana a better rebounder.

They are both still so young and developing each game.

I look forward to a big line up of Ice, Jana, Sarah, Morgan (all fr and sophs) and for now Paige. That group can go to war with SC, TX and UCLA, and for next few seasons.

To be fair, both Ice and Jana have it in their game to progress to 30% 3pt shooters.

 

[Bone Dog]

To be fair, both Ice and Jana have it in their game to progress to 30% 3pt shooters.

Jana was a fair 3pt shooter in high school. Also an excellent free throw shooter, which she definitely is not at present. It can be useful for the bigs to be able to shoot the occasional 3, but I hope it doesn’t distract from Jana’s true strengths in the low post.

 

[HuskyNan]

You are underestimating the value of your post being able to step out to the three point line to be a 16.7 percent shooter.

Jana is 0-3, 0%, from three

 

[packwrap]

Jana was a fair 3pt shooter in high school. Also an excellent free throw shooter, which she definitely is not at present. It can be useful for the bigs to be able to shoot the occasional 3, but I hope it doesn’t distract from Jana’s true strengths in the low post.

Geno wants his posts to be able to shoot the 3. It allows them to pull their defender out from under the basket, and for the threat of the little pick and roll to the perimeter for a jump shot to be credible. Dolson, Walker, Dorka, Stewie and now Strong offer this option. A one dimensional classic post not so highly valued by Geno.

I lump forwards and centers together, as that's the way they play at UConn.

Don't worry, they will all also still be posting up. It's not an accident though when you see our bigs at the perimeter, it's right where coach wants them to be.

 

[MooseJaw]

Good problem to have. Keep in mind that when Jana comes into the game it is often to play against the oppositions sub. Not to demean Jana, who will be a top 5 in WCBB. Give her time to shake off a long injury time off. The girl has serious potential and upside. Don't think so, name any teams 2nd 5 that you would want over Jana.

 

[DefenseBB]

Dear JRRRJ, Keep the "stats" and the explanations coming. A question: if you
include the Efficiency rating will it be for the most recent game? I always look
for the rating on the box score stuff and it is just one of any number of things
that I like to "peruse". My favorite "stat" however is the "eye test"...watching
the game. Since I look at "" in every game I don't need it in your summary, but I do appreciate these additional ways of enjoying the HUSKIES. THANKS, Z

FYI, the Efficiency stat is a commonly used statistic and not one that JRRRJ created. I have used this stat to assess POY and AA candidates for two+ years and have posted about it numerous times. To his point, this efficiency ratio is not able to consider the opposite opponent the player is defending, it just shows how efficient you are on the offensive end. Presumably if you fouled a lot you would either be sitting down due to foul trouble or be disqualified from the game and have reduced minutes and scoring opportunities.

The major highlights of JRRRJ's current data is how efficient Sarah is and how mediocre that Chen is. To be truly considered for an All-American, your efficiency number is usually north of 23. Hidalgo is at 24.3 and Miles is 23.2 so both are playing at AA consideration (as are Paige and Sarah). King is at 19.5 (pretty good) and Koval is at 11.3. Citron is at 18.6. What this proves is their starting 5 is better than our starting 5.

 

[donalddoowop]

Geno wants his posts to be able to shoot the 3. It allows them to pull their defender out from under the basket, and for the threat of the little pick and roll to the perimeter for a jump shot to be credible. Dolson, Walker, Dorka, Stewie and now Strong offer this option. A one dimensional classic post not so highly valued by Geno.

I lump forwards and centers together, as that's the way they play at UConn.

Don't worry, they will all also still be posting up. It's not an accident though when you see our bigs at the perimeter, it's right where coach wants them to be.

Anyone who has been a UConn fan for any number of years should know this.

 

[ConnManFan]

I think those of us leaning team Jana see a higher ceiling in the potential department. She could be an all-time great UConn post. Ice supporters see a more steady hand right now, a more even keeled option. Someone posted they are both improving and assets to the team. I totally agree with this and thus also defer to Geno that he knows what he's doing here.

 

[Steelerone]

After 8 games, I think a clear pattern is emerging. Ice continues to start each game and plays 30% more minutes than Jana. Yet, I would posit that Jana is more impactful in games. I can't speak to any differences in practices but in actual games, here is what I refer to: Jana leads Ice in total rebounds 46 to 33, Jana has twice as many steals, and Jana leads in points 58 to 49. At the same time, Jana has less fouls 14 to 19, and less turnovers 9 to 12.

Thanks to the great analysis supplied by JRRRJ, we can also compare Ice and Jana on a "per 40 minutes" basis. When we do, the far greater positive contribution of Jana is even more clear: Jana out rebounds Ice 14.15 to 7.81, she gets 2 and a half times as many steals and out scores Ice by 17.85 to 11.6.

The only area where Ice greatly bests Jana is in assists but I think that is explained by being less aggressive when she gets the ball under the basket. When Jana gets such possessions, her mindset is to score, while Ice simply scores less and will often look to outlet the ball rather than taking it to the hoop.

My point is I hope clear, Jana simply contributes more to our winning than Ice and the actual in game statistics make that clear. With a quarter of the season in the books, I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role.

Great job with the state

After 8 games, I think a clear pattern is emerging. Ice continues to start each game and plays 30% more minutes than Jana. Yet, I would posit that Jana is more impactful in games. I can't speak to any differences in practices but in actual games, here is what I refer to: Jana leads Ice in total rebounds 46 to 33, Jana has twice as many steals, and Jana leads in points 58 to 49. At the same time, Jana has less fouls 14 to 19, and less turnovers 9 to 12.

Thanks to the great analysis supplied by JRRRJ, we can also compare Ice and Jana on a "per 40 minutes" basis. When we do, the far greater positive contribution of Jana is even more clear: Jana out rebounds Ice 14.15 to 7.81, she gets 2 and a half times as many steals and out scores Ice by 17.85 to 11.6.

The only area where Ice greatly bests Jana is in assists but I think that is explained by being less aggressive when she gets the ball under the basket. When Jana gets such possessions, her mindset is to score, while Ice simply scores less and will often look to outlet the ball rather than taking it to the hoop.

My point is I hope clear, Jana simply contributes more to our winning than Ice and the actual in game statistics make that clear. With a quarter of the season in the books, I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role.

Great job with the stats PVP but I'm waiting to see how she does against the 1st team.

 

[Steelerone]

Two true bigs-nice problem to have!
When the game is close, Jana is difficult to have in due to her tendency to foul. Her interior offensive moves seem to get better game by game but are still limited. As you might expect from someone coming back from a major injury, she moves slower to the ball than Ice. Geno appears to be doing what you would expect. See how the match ups are developing and make substitute decisions accordingly. Particularly against top teams, why would you make decisions based on other factors such as stat sheets, some of which at this stage of the season are skewed by games against 2nd level teams.

I have yet to see either have an impact on a game.

 

[packwrap]

Anyone who has been a UConn fan for any number of years should know this.

I would hope so, but I was responding to a poster who wanted bigs to stay down in the post.

 

[JoePgh]

Geno wants his posts to be able to shoot the 3. It allows them to pull their defender out from under the basket, and for the threat of the little pick and roll to the perimeter for a jump shot to be credible. Dolson, Walker, Dorka, Stewie and now Strong offer this option. A one dimensional classic post not so highly valued by Geno.

I lump forwards and centers together, as that's the way they play at UConn.

Don't worry, they will all also still be posting up. It's not an accident though when you see our bigs at the perimeter, it's right where coach wants them to be.

I think it would be more accurate to say that Geno wants front court players who have 3-point ability to use it, but it's not something that he demands in front court players. It wasn't a significant part of Olivia's or Aaliyah's game, and they both played plenty of minutes. Morgan Tuck took 3's and usually hit a low-20's percentage, but again it wasn't a big part of her game. Gabby was a front court player for UConn, and I'm not sure she ever took a 3-point shot in college. Even Stef Dolson's offense wasn't based around 3-point shots, especially before her senior year. Napheesa was a mainstay of UConn's front court before she ever developed a good 3-point shot, but when she perfected that, Geno was happy to see her use it.

This year, I don't think he wants either Ice or Jana (particularly Jana) to take a lot of 3's. As @oldude said, he's more concerned with them making the right decision (pass to the right teammate or go to the rim) and doing that decisively.

Jana is 0-3, 0%, from three

Jana has never taken a 3-point shot that mattered -- she only does it in garbage time. I'm fairly sure that she is under orders not to take 3's before the game is decided. When she does it in garbage time, it's for developmental purposes only.

 

[donalddoowop]

I would hope so, but I was responding to a poster who wanted bigs to stay down in the post.

My post was not a reflection against you. I agree with you. Geno has wanted that for many years.

 

[Bone Dog]

The use of statistics is based on the assumption that the future will resemble the past, which is mostly true. They are also a partial view, but if chosen carefully, as with Efficiency, they can be a good indicator. The tricky bit is capturing the progress or learning curve players usually make at this age. can’t do that without an additional probability component. It would be interesting to try to write such a formula for WCBB. It’d be something akin to what Bill James attempted. Like it or not, that‘s what reliance on stats means. They reveal a truth, but not an expansive one.

 

[uconnfan68]

Good problem to have. Keep in mind that when Jana comes into the game it is often to play against the oppositions sub. Not to demean Jana, who will be a top 5 in WCBB. Give her time to shake off a long injury time off. The girl has serious potential and upside. Don't think so, name any teams 2nd 5 that you would want over Jana.

I’d just like to see her jump.

 

[UConn990411]

geno doesn't agree. good enough for me, sorry.

i think geno sees value in ice that you don't.

BTW, jana contributes mucho as a sub off the bench. what's the problem?

I think it’s time we stop blindly agreeing with every decision he makes.

Geno is obviously The Goat and he’s still one of the best coaches in the game. But UConn also hasn’t won a championship in a decade, and their poor post play / lack of player development for post players is a big reason why.

Not saying myself or any of us know even close to what Geno does, but it’s fair to ask questions when our eyes tell us something different than what Geno is seeing (especially when the data backs up El Alfy being the more impactful player).

 

[Rowdy831]

After 8 games, I think a clear pattern is emerging. Ice continues to start each game and plays 30% more minutes than Jana. Yet, I would posit that Jana is more impactful in games. I can't speak to any differences in practices but in actual games, here is what I refer to: Jana leads Ice in total rebounds 46 to 33, Jana has twice as many steals, and Jana leads in points 58 to 49. At the same time, Jana has less fouls 14 to 19, and less turnovers 9 to 12.

Thanks to the great analysis supplied by JRRRJ, we can also compare Ice and Jana on a "per 40 minutes" basis. When we do, the far greater positive contribution of Jana is even more clear: Jana out rebounds Ice 14.15 to 7.81, she gets 2 and a half times as many steals and out scores Ice by 17.85 to 11.6.

The only area where Ice greatly bests Jana is in assists but I think that is explained by being less aggressive when she gets the ball under the basket. When Jana gets such possessions, her mindset is to score, while Ice simply scores less and will often look to outlet the ball rather than taking it to the hoop.

My point is I hope clear, Jana simply contributes more to our winning than Ice and the actual in game statistics make that clear. With a quarter of the season in the books, I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role.

My thoughts center around Jana's conditioning and returning from a pretty tough injury. She looks tentitive in her movements and doesn't appear to be playing at her top speed. I don't see her in practice so it is a guess but I do like the contributions she brings when she is on the floor.

I am hoping at some point they play both of them with Azzi, Paige and Sarah. Sarah is impossible to guard for almost any defender. If they are quick enough they most likely aren['t strong enough and she can post them up. If they are big in the post you can take them outside. To me they are giving up a huge advantage when they play Sarah with three guards.

 

[Rowdy831]

I guess i understand why these questions come up, but i think there is a bit of very premature conclusions. Jana is just where Ice was last year. She missed all of last year and it wasn’t just any year, it was to have been her first year, so she has nothing to fall back on. We all know that bigs often take longer to get up to speed.let alone missing year one. Ice is coming through her learning curve pretty well. Hopefully Jana is too. There are signs. .

Great point, but is Ice where she should be? She is not playing as aggressively as I expected her to after how she played in the tournament last year.

 

[hart2hart]

Time is on their side. Every game they will get better.

 

[cohenzone]

Great point, but is Ice where she should be? She is not playing as aggressively as I expected her to after how she played in the tournament last year.

I don’t know where Ice “should“ be. She is definitely more comfortable than she was last year. To my eye she seems out of place in the middle. Seems more like a power forward. Not that tall, at least vs better competition, not a great leaper, a decent jump shooter and passer. The post position among higher level teams is overall taller and quicker than ever. To me, if she and Jana can defend and rebound and add at least 8-10 points, that helps. Last night, Jana had one play where she grabbed the ball and reflexively brought it down to her waist where she was surrounded and stripped. Hopefully she can be cured of that.

 

[hoophuskee]

Geno is obviously The Goat and he’s still one of the best coaches in the game. But UConn also hasn’t won a championship in a decade, and their poor post play / lack of player development for post players is a big reason why.

IMO it's the exact opposite.

But isn't the number 1 reason why they haven't won a championship due to injuries? After all, looking at post play, in FF in 16-17 UCONN went undefeated and got beat on a buzzer beater. In FF 17-18 they got beat in similar fashion but they had a more size and post play with Stevens. Doesn't this highlight how size has nothing to do with it?

In addition, you mention how the lack of player development has existed these last several years. Well, what about Collier? And how about Stevens? With Stevens, she was not considered much of a post player before she came to UCONN. She was more of a 3/4 at Duke I believe. And how about Edwards? This past year an early round pick as well. There were many on here when she came out from High School stating she should be a SF.

And what about the guard coming out of High School in which Geno moved her to be more of an inside player. Her name is Gabby Williams. The evenutal 1st team All_Amercan.

And in terms of effort/performance all you have to look at is 2021-2022. UCONN buried Indiana with their Bigs on the boards while when UCONN beat Stanford, the defending champs that had all their Bigs back, Tara V remarked how physical UCONN was in which UCONN beat them on the boards as well.

And looking at performance and chances to win it all - look at that title game that year, Are we really going to just ignore the injuries? The entire year Griffin was out. In Paige's frosh year when UCONN beat SoCar, Griffin was the combo SF/PF. I'm pretty sure the next year or the following she played very well vs SoCar as well. And look at Dorka that year. She got hurt. And in the Finals Liz had hurt herself vs Stanford which is why she only played 22 minutes in that title game. Then look at last year. At end of season they should have had Senior Aubrey Griffin. Two Sophomores in Ice and Patterson, and Freshman Jana to go along with Edwards. Instead what did he end up with? In fact, Ice had improved so much between her early games such as Texas vs her last two games vs SoCal and Iowa that maybe Geno could be criticized for not playing her more. And we see she is much better this year than last, so where is this comment coming from that he doesn’t develop posts?

Bottomline is that since Stewie left, UCONN is still getting to Final Fours. They are still producing All-Americans that are posts. And they are going into the WNBA. So, as we can see, that if there are high quality post players in High School looking for one helluva program that will develop their skills at such a level to get them in the pros along with nearly always playing in the last week for a National Championship, then UCONN is definitely a place to go.







.

 

[Zarathustra]

FYI, the Efficiency stat is a commonly used statistic and not one that JRRRJ created. I have used this stat to assess POY and AA candidates for two+ years and have posted about it numerous times. To his point, this efficiency ratio is not able to consider the opposite opponent the player is defending, it just shows how efficient you are on the offensive end. Presumably if you fouled a lot you would either be sitting down due to foul trouble or be disqualified from the game and have reduced minutes and scoring opportunities.

The major highlights of JRRRJ's current data is how efficient Sarah is and how mediocre that Chen is. To be truly considered for an All-American, your efficiency number is usually north of 23. Hidalgo is at 24.3 and Miles is 23.2 so both are playing at AA consideration (as are Paige and Sarah). King is at 19.5 (pretty good) and Koval is at 11.3. Citron is at 18.6. What this proves is their starting 5 is better than our starting 5.

Thanks for the ongoing insights.