Ice and Jana....what am I missing?

[donalddoowop]

I would hope so, but I was responding to a poster who wanted bigs to stay down in the post.

My post was not a reflection against you. I agree with you. Geno has wanted that for many years.

 

[Bone Dog]

The use of statistics is based on the assumption that the future will resemble the past, which is mostly true. They are also a partial view, but if chosen carefully, as with Efficiency, they can be a good indicator. The tricky bit is capturing the progress or learning curve players usually make at this age. can’t do that without an additional probability component. It would be interesting to try to write such a formula for WCBB. It’d be something akin to what Bill James attempted. Like it or not, that‘s what reliance on stats means. They reveal a truth, but not an expansive one.

 

[uconnfan68]

Good problem to have. Keep in mind that when Jana comes into the game it is often to play against the oppositions sub. Not to demean Jana, who will be a top 5 in WCBB. Give her time to shake off a long injury time off. The girl has serious potential and upside. Don't think so, name any teams 2nd 5 that you would want over Jana.

I’d just like to see her jump.

 

[UConn990411]

geno doesn't agree. good enough for me, sorry.

i think geno sees value in ice that you don't.

BTW, jana contributes mucho as a sub off the bench. what's the problem?

I think it’s time we stop blindly agreeing with every decision he makes.

Geno is obviously The Goat and he’s still one of the best coaches in the game. But UConn also hasn’t won a championship in a decade, and their poor post play / lack of player development for post players is a big reason why.

Not saying myself or any of us know even close to what Geno does, but it’s fair to ask questions when our eyes tell us something different than what Geno is seeing (especially when the data backs up El Alfy being the more impactful player).

 

[Rowdy831]

After 8 games, I think a clear pattern is emerging. Ice continues to start each game and plays 30% more minutes than Jana. Yet, I would posit that Jana is more impactful in games. I can't speak to any differences in practices but in actual games, here is what I refer to: Jana leads Ice in total rebounds 46 to 33, Jana has twice as many steals, and Jana leads in points 58 to 49. At the same time, Jana has less fouls 14 to 19, and less turnovers 9 to 12.

Thanks to the great analysis supplied by JRRRJ, we can also compare Ice and Jana on a "per 40 minutes" basis. When we do, the far greater positive contribution of Jana is even more clear: Jana out rebounds Ice 14.15 to 7.81, she gets 2 and a half times as many steals and out scores Ice by 17.85 to 11.6.

The only area where Ice greatly bests Jana is in assists but I think that is explained by being less aggressive when she gets the ball under the basket. When Jana gets such possessions, her mindset is to score, while Ice simply scores less and will often look to outlet the ball rather than taking it to the hoop.

My point is I hope clear, Jana simply contributes more to our winning than Ice and the actual in game statistics make that clear. With a quarter of the season in the books, I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role.

My thoughts center around Jana's conditioning and returning from a pretty tough injury. She looks tentitive in her movements and doesn't appear to be playing at her top speed. I don't see her in practice so it is a guess but I do like the contributions she brings when she is on the floor.

I am hoping at some point they play both of them with Azzi, Paige and Sarah. Sarah is impossible to guard for almost any defender. If they are quick enough they most likely aren['t strong enough and she can post them up. If they are big in the post you can take them outside. To me they are giving up a huge advantage when they play Sarah with three guards.

 

[Rowdy831]

I guess i understand why these questions come up, but i think there is a bit of very premature conclusions. Jana is just where Ice was last year. She missed all of last year and it wasn’t just any year, it was to have been her first year, so she has nothing to fall back on. We all know that bigs often take longer to get up to speed.let alone missing year one. Ice is coming through her learning curve pretty well. Hopefully Jana is too. There are signs. .

Great point, but is Ice where she should be? She is not playing as aggressively as I expected her to after how she played in the tournament last year.

 

[hart2hart]

Time is on their side. Every game they will get better.

 

[cohenzone]

Great point, but is Ice where she should be? She is not playing as aggressively as I expected her to after how she played in the tournament last year.

I don’t know where Ice “should“ be. She is definitely more comfortable than she was last year. To my eye she seems out of place in the middle. Seems more like a power forward. Not that tall, at least vs better competition, not a great leaper, a decent jump shooter and passer. The post position among higher level teams is overall taller and quicker than ever. To me, if she and Jana can defend and rebound and add at least 8-10 points, that helps. Last night, Jana had one play where she grabbed the ball and reflexively brought it down to her waist where she was surrounded and stripped. Hopefully she can be cured of that.

 

[hoophuskee]

Geno is obviously The Goat and he’s still one of the best coaches in the game. But UConn also hasn’t won a championship in a decade, and their poor post play / lack of player development for post players is a big reason why.

IMO it's the exact opposite.

But isn't the number 1 reason why they haven't won a championship due to injuries? After all, looking at post play, in FF in 16-17 UCONN went undefeated and got beat on a buzzer beater. In FF 17-18 they got beat in similar fashion but they had a more size and post play with Stevens. Doesn't this highlight how size has nothing to do with it?

In addition, you mention how the lack of player development has existed these last several years. Well, what about Collier? And how about Stevens? With Stevens, she was not considered much of a post player before she came to UCONN. She was more of a 3/4 at Duke I believe. And how about Edwards? This past year an early round pick as well. There were many on here when she came out from High School stating she should be a SF.

And what about the guard coming out of High School in which Geno moved her to be more of an inside player. Her name is Gabby Williams. The evenutal 1st team All_Amercan.

And in terms of effort/performance all you have to look at is 2021-2022. UCONN buried Indiana with their Bigs on the boards while when UCONN beat Stanford, the defending champs that had all their Bigs back, Tara V remarked how physical UCONN was in which UCONN beat them on the boards as well.

And looking at performance and chances to win it all - look at that title game that year, Are we really going to just ignore the injuries? The entire year Griffin was out. In Paige's frosh year when UCONN beat SoCar, Griffin was the combo SF/PF. I'm pretty sure the next year or the following she played very well vs SoCar as well. And look at Dorka that year. She got hurt. And in the Finals Liz had hurt herself vs Stanford which is why she only played 22 minutes in that title game. Then look at last year. At end of season they should have had Senior Aubrey Griffin. Two Sophomores in Ice and Patterson, and Freshman Jana to go along with Edwards. Instead what did he end up with? In fact, Ice had improved so much between her early games such as Texas vs her last two games vs SoCal and Iowa that maybe Geno could be criticized for not playing her more. And we see she is much better this year than last, so where is this comment coming from that he doesn’t develop posts?

Bottomline is that since Stewie left, UCONN is still getting to Final Fours. They are still producing All-Americans that are posts. And they are going into the WNBA. So, as we can see, that if there are high quality post players in High School looking for one helluva program that will develop their skills at such a level to get them in the pros along with nearly always playing in the last week for a National Championship, then UCONN is definitely a place to go.







.

 

[Zarathustra]

FYI, the Efficiency stat is a commonly used statistic and not one that JRRRJ created. I have used this stat to assess POY and AA candidates for two+ years and have posted about it numerous times. To his point, this efficiency ratio is not able to consider the opposite opponent the player is defending, it just shows how efficient you are on the offensive end. Presumably if you fouled a lot you would either be sitting down due to foul trouble or be disqualified from the game and have reduced minutes and scoring opportunities.

The major highlights of JRRRJ's current data is how efficient Sarah is and how mediocre that Chen is. To be truly considered for an All-American, your efficiency number is usually north of 23. Hidalgo is at 24.3 and Miles is 23.2 so both are playing at AA consideration (as are Paige and Sarah). King is at 19.5 (pretty good) and Koval is at 11.3. Citron is at 18.6. What this proves is their starting 5 is better than our starting 5.

Thanks for the ongoing insights.

 

[Blond D.]

I would start Jana just to get the opening tip if nothing else. Both are pretty comparable with Ice having a big lead in assists.

 

[Nev]

You're missing the fact that Jana is a tall 6-5 vs. Ice is a small 6-3 in height. Nowadays in women basketball you must have a tall (6-5 to 6-7) inside presence with the top teams have more than one that start.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

After 8 games, I think a clear pattern is emerging. Ice continues to start each game and plays 30% more minutes than Jana. Yet, I would posit that Jana is more impactful in games. I can't speak to any differences in practices but in actual games, here is what I refer to: Jana leads Ice in total rebounds 46 to 33, Jana has twice as many steals, and Jana leads in points 58 to 49. At the same time, Jana has less fouls 14 to 19, and less turnovers 9 to 12.

Thanks to the great analysis supplied by JRRRJ, we can also compare Ice and Jana on a "per 40 minutes" basis. When we do, the far greater positive contribution of Jana is even more clear: Jana out rebounds Ice 14.15 to 7.81, she gets 2 and a half times as many steals and out scores Ice by 17.85 to 11.6.

The only area where Ice greatly bests Jana is in assists but I think that is explained by being less aggressive when she gets the ball under the basket. When Jana gets such possessions, her mindset is to score, while Ice simply scores less and will often look to outlet the ball rather than taking it to the hoop.

My point is I hope clear, Jana simply contributes more to our winning than Ice and the actual in game statistics make that clear. With a quarter of the season in the books, I think we need to recognize her greater contribution and give her the majority of minutes rather than playing a back up role.

Ice Brady has also developed a nice accurate jump shot in the past year, better than anything I’ve seen from Jana in that regard.

 

[hoophuskee]

You're missing the fact that Jana is a tall 6-5 vs. Ice is a small 6-3 in height. Nowadays in women basketball you must have a tall (6-5 to 6-7) inside presence with the top teams have more than one that start.

Iowa had 6'5 - 6'7?

 

[mainerhuski]

I'm tired of seeing Jana stationary & straight up in the low post on defense and getting a foul called on her when an opponent runs into her. Easily 50% of the calls against her have occurred that way. Not sure how she is supposed to adjust to that

 

[Stagnant]

Ice got benched in the game against georgetown and it seems like she responded well off the bench.

Jana and Morgan Cheli got some awful fouls called on them. Not even close to the right call.

I think the struggle with Jana is similar to the struggle with deberry in some ways. I think Jana prefers to be on the perimeter. And UConn want her on the post.

 

[cgshuskie]

Need Jana to start and to be more aggressive and stratrhgic about fouls. She's got to let an opponent know it won't be easy if
they come into the lane. Need Tina Charles to come to Uconn to work with her.

 

[Geesworld]

Let the Bigs play. Mistakes and all. Wings please learn how to post entry a pass.

 

[hoophuskee]

Ice got benched in the game against georgetown and it seems like she responded well off the bench.

Jana and Morgan Cheli got some awful fouls called on them. Not even close to the right call.

I think the struggle with Jana is similar to the struggle with deberry in some ways. I think Jana prefers to be on the perimeter. And UConn want her on the post.

She is much more physcial than Amari.

 

[Zonepress]

Ice got benched in the game against georgetown and it seems like she responded well off the bench.

Jana and Morgan Cheli got some awful fouls called on them. Not even close to the right call.

I think the struggle with Jana is similar to the struggle with deberry in some ways. I think Jana prefers to be on the perimeter. And UConn want her on the post.

Deberry struggles were lack of intensity and physicality
JAE had plenty of that
She is a contributing player in competitive games
And has a chance to be starting player
The comparison is way off the mark

 

[Stagnant]

I only mentioned a preference to be on the perimeter. I agree El Alfy is way more intense and physical.

 

[HuskyNan]

You're missing the fact that Jana is a tall 6-5 vs. Ice is a small 6-3 in height. Nowadays in women basketball you must have a tall (6-5 to 6-7) inside presence with the top teams have more than one that start.

Do you know the percentage of U.S. women 6’5” (77 inches) or taller? It’s a very small percentage of the population and elite players that are 77 inches or taller are an even smaller percentage

How many 6’5” girls do you see listed in the top 100 players of 2025? And while you’re looking at the list, see where #73 is going

2025 HoopGurlz Recruiting Rankings - espnW 100 - ESPN

Get the inside scoop on the top ranked high school girls' basketball players. In-depth player briefings, film and more on ESPNHS.com.

www.espn.com

 

[Geesworld]

IMO it's the exact opposite.

But isn't the number 1 reason why they haven't won a championship due to injuries? After all, looking at post play, in FF in 16-17 UCONN went undefeated and got beat on a buzzer beater. In FF 17-18 they got beat in similar fashion but they had a more size and post play with Stevens. Doesn't this highlight how size has nothing to do with it?

In addition, you mention how the lack of player development has existed these last several years. Well, what about Collier? And how about Stevens? With Stevens, she was not considered much of a post player before she came to UCONN. She was more of a 3/4 at Duke I believe. And how about Edwards? This past year an early round pick as well. There were many on here when she came out from High School stating she should be a SF.

And what about the guard coming out of High School in which Geno moved her to be more of an inside player. Her name is Gabby Williams. The evenutal 1st team All_Amercan.

And in terms of effort/performance all you have to look at is 2021-2022. UCONN buried Indiana with their Bigs on the boards while when UCONN beat Stanford, the defending champs that had all their Bigs back, Tara V remarked how physical UCONN was in which UCONN beat them on the boards as well.

And looking at performance and chances to win it all - look at that title game that year, Are we really going to just ignore the injuries? The entire year Griffin was out. In Paige's frosh year when UCONN beat SoCar, Griffin was the combo SF/PF. I'm pretty sure the next year or the following she played very well vs SoCar as well. And look at Dorka that year. She got hurt. And in the Finals Liz had hurt herself vs Stanford which is why she only played 22 minutes in that title game. Then look at last year. At end of season they should have had Senior Aubrey Griffin. Two Sophomores in Ice and Patterson, and Freshman Jana to go along with Edwards. Instead what did he end up with? In fact, Ice had improved so much between her early games such as Texas vs her last two games vs SoCal and Iowa that maybe Geno could be criticized for not playing her more. And we see she is much better this year than last, so where is this comment coming from that he doesn’t develop posts?

Bottomline is that since Stewie left, UCONN is still getting to Final Fours. They are still producing All-Americans that are posts. And they are going into the WNBA. So, as we can see, that if there are high quality post players in High School looking for one helluva program that will develop their skills at such a level to get them in the pros along with nearly always playing in the last week for a National Championship, then UCONN is definitely a place to go.







.

To me Collier and Williams are the reason post play has been so stagnant at UCONN. They both were Hybrid wing players who had enough tools to play high post (not low post). Gabby and Naphessa mostly played as unit and Stevens floated in and out from post to perimeter. They were a perfect trio. Since they all graduated we have been trying to duplicate that style of play, Which is fine but you have to have the hybrid players who can do that. There has been heavy blame to the post play but it's not the component that is featured at UCONN. We will never force inside out because it's just not the style we play.
Last year Aaliyah Edwards was our starting 5 at 6'3 with no commitment towards Ice getting better thru trial and error and to get her legs back after a year off from injury. No way guard orientated, Geno, does that with his wing players. He will force feed them and live with mistakes just because he knows they need a rhythm. .
The days of creating mismatches with a 5'11 Gabby Williams on a 6'5 post are long gone. Because the 6'5 plus goes down and crushes you on offense.

 

[Dogstar]

I would start Jana just to get the opening tip if nothing else. Both are pretty comparable with Ice having a big lead in assists.

Getting the opening tip is probably the least most important thg of the game imho

 

[SLY63]

I think Geno is going to go with Sarah and Aubrey at the 4 and 5 when Aubrey is back.