Huskies -15.5 vs Iowa | The Boneyard

Huskies -15.5 vs Iowa

Wow! That seems like a huge line. If I had some extra cash lying around and were in Vegas, I might be tempted to place a bet. I expect UCONN to win straight up but by more than 15?
 
Iowa lost 9 games by an average of 10 points. While UConn's has had issues with quick, 3 point shooting guard lead teams, none of Iowa's loses were against team's with the Huskie's blend of offensive and defensive skills. 15 seems reasonable.
 
Its gonna get interesting from here on to the FF. There are some teams that are at another level UConn being one of them and those teams are much better then the others. Right now there are a couple of teams playing really well. With that said every team has weaknesses and those will be exposed from here on out. UConn is peaking right now on both sides of the ball. Edwards is playing at a different level and ONO is playing really well too. That gives UConn a huge advantage down low. UConns passing is magic and their confidence and belief that they can win is off the charts. Add to that Geno is back. IMO UConn will get a lead of more then 20 and win going away. Some teams have a good defensive player. UConn has a good defensive team that rebounds well. I expect UConn to come out with their "A" game and win big.
 
LETTERL said:
Wow! That seems like a huge line. If I had some extra cash lying around and were in Vegas, I might be tempted to place a bet. I expect UCONN to win straight up but by more than 15?
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That’s not how odds work. Oddsmakers try to set odds so that half the bettors bet on one team and the other half bets on the the other. They aren’t setting their perceived margin of victory; they’re trying to predict bettors behavior. That’s why odds will move - if too many people start betting on one team, the odds will move to even out the bets.
 
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Tonyc said:
UConn is peaking right now on both sides of the ball. Edwards is playing at a different level and ONO is playing really well too. That gives UConn a huge advantage down low. UConns passing is magic and their confidence and belief that they can win is off the charts. Add to that Geno is back. IMO UConn will get a lead of more then 20 and win going away. Some teams have a good defensive player. UConn has a good defensive team that rebounds well. I expect UConn to come out with their "A" game and win big.
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YES, AGREED.
I predict Uconn will win over 20++
 
Tonyc said:
Its gonna get interesting from here on to the FF. There are some teams that are at another level UConn being one of them and those teams are much better then the others. Right now there are a couple of teams playing really well. With that said every team has weaknesses and those will be exposed from here on out. UConn is peaking right now on both sides of the ball. Edwards is playing at a different level and ONO is playing really well too. That gives UConn a huge advantage down low. UConns passing is magic and their confidence and belief that they can win is off the charts. Add to that Geno is back. IMO UConn will get a lead of more then 20 and win going away. Some teams have a good defensive player. UConn has a good defensive team that rebounds well. I expect UConn to come out with their "A" game and win big.
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very right on .... but there's not a guarantee of that 'A' game, so i say 'as long as they win, it's all OK'
 
HuskyNan said:
That’s not how odds work. Oddsmakers try to set odds so that half the bettors bet on one team and the other half bets on the the other. They aren’t setting their perceived margin of victory; they’re trying to predict bettors behavior. That’s why odds will move - if too many people start betting on one team, the odds will move to even out the bets.
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HN, exactly correct. The goal is to balance the book to reduce risk and maximize the vig. Has nothing to do with predicting the game.
 
HopJim said:
Iowa lost 9 games by an average of 10 points. While UConn's has had issues with quick, 3 point shooting guard lead teams, none of Iowa's loses were against team's with the Huskie's blend of offensive and defensive skills. 15 seems reasonable.
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I think that this is a very different Iowa team. They seem to have discovered how to play as a "team," rather than just as Clark and four cheerleaders. They're much more integrated. Having said that, Connecticut has figured out the same thing. So as Paige's point totals have gone down, the team's winning margins have gone up. Makes sense.

Should be an excellent game against Connecticut's best opponent since South Carolina.
 
LETTERL said:
Wow! That seems like a huge line. If I had some extra cash lying around and were in Vegas, I might be tempted to place a bet. I expect UCONN to win straight up but by more than 15?
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You should see some of the predictions by the BY :)
 
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HuskyNan said:
That’s not how odds work. Oddsmakers try to set odds so that half the bettors bet on one team and the other half bets on the the other. They aren’t setting their perceived margin of victory; they’re trying to predict bettors behavior. That’s why odds will move - if too many people start betting on one team, the odds will move to even out the bets.
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I always wondered how that worked. Thanks Nan!
 
I am not a betting person but if i was i'd take iowa and the 15 points. No way UCONN wins by that margin if they win. This is going to be very close.
 
HuskyNan said:
That’s not how odds work. Oddsmakers try to set odds so that half the bettors bet on one team and the other half bets on the the other. They aren’t setting their perceived margin of victory; they’re trying to predict bettors behavior. That’s why odds will move - if too many people start betting on one team, the odds will move to even out the bets.
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Effectively it does become a crowd-sourced (the better's bets and the odds-maker's adjustments) opinion on the final point differential, regardless of intent.
 
RedStickHusky said:
Has to have something to do with predicting the game, even if that is not their objective.
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Not necessarily. Oddsmakers may think that bettors “know” UConn better than Iowa and may be perceived as being the stronger team. The oddsmakers are trying to predict what the bettors will think, not reporting what team they believe will win.
 
HuskyNan said:
They aren’t setting their perceived margin of victory; they’re trying to predict bettors behavior.
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Perhaps not the initial line, but those two things need to converge otherwise there will be easy money on the table, and others will lose big time.
 
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HuskyNan said:
That’s not how odds work. Oddsmakers try to set odds so that half the bettors bet on one team and the other half bets on the the other. They aren’t setting their perceived margin of victory; they’re trying to predict bettors behavior. That’s why odds will move - if too many people start betting on one team, the odds will move to even out the bets.
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Skeets said:​

HN, exactly correct. The goal is to balance the book to reduce risk and maximize the vig. Has nothing to do with predicting the game.

Both @HuskyNan and @Skeets are correct. What I would add @GoUconn7961 is that books are balanced via the amount of money bet, not the number of bettors. Pointspread wagers are paid off at 10/11 so if you bet UConn -15 1/2, you give the bookmaker $110 and, if you win, he gives you back $210. If someone else bets Iowa +15 1/2, he gives the bookmaker $110 and, if he wins, gets $210 back from the bookmaker. So, in that example, the bookmaker collects $220 and returns $210. The house wins $10 for every $220 bet or 4.55%. This is called Theoretical Hold Percentage (THP).

In a perfect world--for bookmakers--the house would receive an equal amount of wagering on each side. As Nan explained, the house moves the line (using a process called the "Ladder Principle") to encourage betting on a side to balance their books and limit liability. However, there are dangers in moving the line, including "middles" and "sides" but, perhaps, that's a subject for another time.

Books rarely achieve perfect balance so there also is something called Practical Hold Percentage (PHP), which winds up being less that 4.55%.

PHP = (Amount booked - Amount paid out) / Amount booked = Gross profit / Amount booked. Yeah, it's complicated.

Bottom line: The pointspread is designed for betting, not as a prediction of the game's final margin. In the above example, if UConn beats Iowa by 15 or 16 points that likely would be a terrible result for the house.
 
I get all that and I'm not arguing. I just think "nothing to do with predicting the game" is a little over the top. It's at least tangentially related, They're trying to find the bettors mean predicted spread.
 
psconn said:
Effectively it does become a crowd-sourced (the better's bets and the odds-maker's adjustments) opinion on the final point differential, regardless of intent.
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In large markets with well-educated bettors, the final odds line = expected margin.
WCBB is a much smaller market so there's a greater chance of more emotional bettors influencing the final numbers.
 
Vowelguy said:
In large markets with well-educated bettors, the final odds line = expected margin.
WCBB is a much smaller market so there's a greater chance of more emotional bettors influencing the final numbers.
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Agree
 
PLEASE, let's keep our eye on the prize...a win, period! Betting odds can drive you nuts. Yes, we are a better team, but all great team's somehow don't show up to play on occasion...this is a big stage.
Iowa appears to be a bit cocky based on some of their pre-game video. I have, very occasionally have been bitten by betting odds & learned a lesson or two.
With the Maestro back, I am hopeful of a good game plan. Clark is a great player, but she ain't no Paige. I had visions of Aubrey faceguarding her all over the court, but Geno will take care of business.
We have to be careful of the fouling situation. Nika's ankle may keep her out of the equation...Let's just win the damn game. Go girls!











..
 
Late word on Nika might swing it a couple of points in either direction. Hypothetically, the number that might cause me to move my money from UConn to Iowa would need to be a lot closer to 20.
 
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Connecticut has won 11 National Championship games by an average of 16 points. 15-1/2 is not out of line for a Sweet Sixteen game.
 
I know 15 points sounds like a lot, but if UConn wins every quarter by just 4 points, they cover and in most people's minds would be considered a relatively close game.
 
The bookmakers are usually pretty good in finding a number that entices bets on both teams. I guessed 12 then went to 14 assuming AE would start. NICA’s status won’t impact the line. Paige, AE, ONO would. And, of course Caitlin.

Many people on this board are in love with Nica. Understandable, since who could not love the way she plays. But, IMO, she is a 6 or 7 on this team. Maybe she starts the Iowa game because of her defensive ability and the player they are facing but the best starting 5 is the one we saw against Syracuse and the one needed against Baylor and, hopefully beyond.
 
To all BY I was taught the Books are not in business to lose money. Just like the casino's here in ct. they are not in business to lose money. Oddsmakers are in business to make money and sometimes it's our money that they make.
 
fomalhaut said:
Connecticut has won 11 National Championship games by an average of 16 points. 15-1/2 is not out of line for a Sweet Sixteen game.
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True but not one Uconn player has won a title. So not sure how important that stat is..yes I know Geno has coached 11 Natl championships..is that what you mean?
 
HuskyNan said:
That’s not how odds work. Oddsmakers try to set odds so that half the bettors bet on one team and the other half bets on the the other. They aren’t setting their perceived margin of victory; they’re trying to predict bettors behavior. That’s why odds will move - if too many people start betting on one team, the odds will move to even out the bets.
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Okay Nan, which sports book do you work for out here in Vegas? Not too many people know that, they think that the sports books are are setting a perceived margin of victory.
 
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