In an abstract, my guess would have been a better Year 3 overall, a slight step back Year 4, and then the sort of near-permanent success from Year 5 on. This is based on the state of the roster at the time he took over, what it takes to recruit a roster that is excellent top to bottom and given players leaving early.
I did think we might have had a better Year 1 because of Adams returning, and injuries essentially derailed that year. Adams missed 7 games. Gilbert 8. It screwed up any chance they had getting rhythm. But you could see the improvement.
Year 2 was actually better than I thought it would be, and without Covid the team would have had 20 wins (only Tulane stood i the way) and may have found its way into the tournament.
The overall results of Year 3 are weaker than I'd like, but Covid and injuries to Akok, Bouknight, and Jackson obviously played major roles.
I'm not as high on some on Year 4. The roster is the most talented it's been in a very long time, but our most talented players are still Freshmen and Sophomores (or, in the case of Akok, coming off a major injury). There are a few things that can happen that could make this team a S16 team, but I'm expecting a more bubbly team than most.
Still, I'm happy with Hurley and where we are. The growth in essentially every player has been truly remarkable. For god's sake, Whaley didn't know where how to operate in an organized game at all—he was all over the place even two years ago—and now he's a very good role player.
The future is bright.