How will this year's Elite 8 do next year?

[oldude]

In an unusual occurrence, the top 8 seeds all made the Elite 8 this year. While every one of those teams loses key players, some have a much better chance to return to the Elite 8 and beyond next season. I’ve ranked each team’s chances from 8 to 1 (worst to best) along with a percentage guesstimate for each team to return to the Elite 8 next season. Generally, I only evaluated returning players, not freshmen or transfers, even though freshmen and transfers will play a role for many of these teams.

8. Iowa (0%) – The Hawkeyes had a wonderful season behind Naismith Award winner Megan Gustafson, who carried Iowa for much of the season including big wins over MD and MO down the stretch. The Hawkeyes not only lose Gustafson, but also starting pg Tania Davis as well as starting forward Hannah Stewart. Iowa is unlikely to make it back to the Elite 8 next year, let alone compete for a Big10 title.

7. MS ST (10%) – Vic has done a great job at MS St. With Bibby back next year, along with some solid returning players, the Bulldogs will continue to be competitive. But you can’t teach size, and MS ST has no one to replace McGowan. Add in the loss of starters Anriel Howard, Jazzmun Holmes and Jordan Danberry and the Bulldogs will clearly be in rebuilding mode.

6. ND (30%) – ND lost every single starter from one of their greatest teams ever, and they really didn’t play their bench very much in big games. But the Irish have some highly recruited players, including size on the bench. MM will have them playing their best come tournament time, so it’s not impossible that ND makes it back to the Elite 8 next year.

5. Louisville (30%) – The Cardinals lost their three best offensive threats in Carter, Fuehring and AA Asia Durr. I’m not sure where the points will come from next year, but they do have some solid defensive players, size and rebounding, and Walz is a very capable coach. I rank them just ahead of ND because they have more experience returning.

4. Stanford (50%) - Stanford loses their best player in forward Alanna Smith. They also lose key reserve Shannon Coffee and probably guard Marta Sneizak who was out most of the year with an injury. But Stanford has some talented guards/wings returning, and if any team should get a boost from their freshmen it would be Stanford. Outside of the guy in Storrs, CT, no other coach does a better job of having her team ready to play in March.

3. UConn (65%) - UConn is losing 2 incredible senior AA’s, after losing 3 top-10 draft picks last year, after losing 3 AA’s the prior year. You get the picture? UConn will have the best starting four East of Eugene, OR next year. In addition, Christyn Williams should be a 1st team AA. The Huskies absolutely need to find a 5th starter and hopefully a capable reserve or two. But UConn has Geno and they don’t. That should be enough.

2. Baylor (75%) - Yes, you can’t teach size, and Brown will be missed in Waco. But the Lady Bears dodged a bullet with Cox, and she will be the best post player in the country next year. Baylor has a lot of talent and depth coming back including star players Landrum, Richards and Smith. The Lady Bear’s success may come down to how well they replace converted pg Chloe Jackson who was tremendous in their championship run this season.

1. Oregon (90%) – When Sabrina Ionescu announced she was returning to Oregon for her senior season, the Ducks instantly became the odds-on favorite to win it all next year. In addition, Oregon loses only one player, guard Maite Cazorla, and returns several talented players from injuries. It could be a great year for Kelly Graves and the Oregon Ducks.

 

[veryolddog]

Old Dude, this is a very good analysis of what the future may hold. Again, UConn, for me is really iffy. Their performance for me this season was really sketchy and inconsistent. This occurred from game to game and sometimes inside the game itself. The consistency, that we became use to seem to disappear. It was apparent all season long that this team could not make a layup when it had the best opportunity. What for me is more important is living till August so that I can take a fly fishing trip on the Henry's Fork. More important is living to see the next season. I want to see more recruits and lots of giants on the court for UConn. Time is fleeting, so give Geno a kick in the ass and get him to get some more skills on the court.

 

[SLY63]

I would give Stanford a better chance than UConn. Maybe switch their %.

 

[oldude]

I would give Stanford a better chance than UConn. Maybe switch their %.

What can I say? I'm a homer...
I do believe that UConn will have the best starting backcourt in the country.

 

[Wbbfan1]

I would have UConn closer to Notre Dame and Louisville. Rebounding will be a bigger problem next year with how the roster is currently configured. Now if Camara can earn the starting PF position, that could change the rebounding numbers. Obviously if Geno/Chris can get a Graduate transfer that has size and that player earns a starting position, the the projection on UConn could change significantly.

 

[oldude]

I would have UConn closer to Notre Dame and Louisville. Rebounding will be a bigger problem next year with how the roster is currently configured. Now if Camara can earn the starting PF position, that could change the rebounding numbers. Obviously if Geno/Chris can get a Graduate transfer that has size and that player earns a starting position, the the projection on UConn could change significantly.

To some degree, I’m assuming a significant sophomore leap for Liv. If she becomes the player we all believe she can be, sooner rather than later, then rebounding and post defense become much less of a concern next season.

 

[HopJim]

To some degree, I’m assuming a significant sophomore leap for Liv. If she becomes the player we all believe she can be, sooner rather than later, then rebounding and post defense become much less of a concern next season.

Believe that ONO's soph performance will be based 50% on her commitment to get stronger and 50% on Geno getting a bruiser underneath. No matter how much ONO physically develops, will be difficult to match up against some of the big bodies coming into WBB.

 

[oldude]

Believe that ONO's soph performance will be based 50% on her commitment to get stronger and 50% on Geno getting a bruiser underneath. No matter how much ONO physically develops, will be difficult to match up against some of the big bodies coming into WBB.

There aren’t that many talented Bigs in WBB. Oregon & Baylor have one each. MD & TX each have a Big that they are hoping makes their own sophomore leap. SC will have a couple unproven freshmen. I’m sure I’m missing a few, but when you add in UConn’s tremendous backcourt, along with Megan, can you come up with 8 teams that have a better chance than UConn to make the Elite 8 next year? Or even 4 teams?

 

['nuff sed]

There aren’t that many talented Bigs in WBB. Oregon & Baylor have one each. MD & TX each have a Big that they are hoping makes their own sophomore leap. SC will have a couple unproven freshmen. I’m sure I’m missing a few, but when you add in UConn’s tremendous backcourt, along with Megan, can you come up with 8 teams that have a better chance than UConn to make the Elite 8 next year? Or even 4 teams?

"There aren’t that many talented Bigs in WBB."

Yep, you're right

I'm not sold on the "big bigger biggest" meme yet in WBB. Its still a guards game at tournament time.

But that said, I think Cox is a special player and with the right cast Baylor should be right there again.

Oregon is still there.

UConn IMO aside for all the crying for transfers has enough right now to be there again.

Dawn's team is intriguing to me....don't underestimate.

Maryland and Texas are both perennial under achievers.

Those are my top 3 ---- Baylor, Oregon, UConn

Wildcard - South Carolina

All the rest I think are playing for 2nd place (or 5th in March)

 

[Oldbones]

In an unusual occurrence, the top 8 seeds all made the Elite 8 this year. While every one of those teams loses key players, some have a much better chance to return to the Elite 8 and beyond next season. I’ve ranked each team’s chances from 8 to 1 (worst to best) along with a percentage guesstimate for each team to return to the Elite 8 next season. Generally, I only evaluated returning players, not freshmen or transfers, even though freshmen and transfers will play a role for many of these teams.

8. Iowa (0%) – The Hawkeyes had a wonderful season behind Naismith Award winner Megan Gustafson, who carried Iowa for much of the season including big wins over MD and MO down the stretch. The Hawkeyes not only lose Gustafson, but also starting pg Tania Davis as well as starting forward Hannah Stewart. Iowa is unlikely to make it back to the Elite 8 next year, let alone compete for a Big10 title.

7. MS ST (10%) – Vic has done a great job at MS St. With Bibby back next year, along with some solid returning players, the Bulldogs will continue to be competitive. But you can’t teach size, and MS ST has no one to replace McGowan. Add in the loss of starters Anriel Howard, Jazzmun Holmes and Jordan Danberry and the Bulldogs will clearly be in rebuilding mode.

6. ND (30%) – ND lost every single starter from one of their greatest teams ever, and they really didn’t play their bench very much in big games. But the Irish have some highly recruited players, including size on the bench. MM will have them playing their best come tournament time, so it’s not impossible that ND makes it back to the Elite 8 next year.

5. Louisville (30%) – The Cardinals lost their three best offensive threats in Carter, Fuehring and AA Asia Durr. I’m not sure where the points will come from next year, but they do have some solid defensive players, size and rebounding, and Walz is a very capable coach. I rank them just ahead of ND because they have more experience returning.

4. Stanford (50%) - Stanford loses their best player in forward Alanna Smith. They also lose key reserve Shannon Coffee and probably guard Marta Sneizak who was out most of the year with an injury. But Stanford has some talented guards/wings returning, and if any team should get a boost from their freshmen it would be Stanford. Outside of the guy in Storrs, CT, no other coach does a better job of having her team ready to play in March.

3. UConn (65%) - UConn is losing 2 incredible senior AA’s, after losing 3 top-10 draft picks last year, after losing 3 AA’s the prior year. You get the picture? UConn will have the best starting four East of Eugene, OR next year. In addition, Christyn Williams should be a 1st team AA. The Huskies absolutely need to find a 5th starter and hopefully a capable reserve or two. But UConn has Geno and they don’t. That should be enough.

2. Baylor (75%) - Yes, you can’t teach size, and Brown will be missed in Waco. But the Lady Bears dodged a bullet with Cox, and she will be the best post player in the country next year. Baylor has a lot of talent and depth coming back including star players Landrum, Richards and Smith. The Lady Bear’s success may come down to how well they replace converted pg Chloe Jackson who was tremendous in their championship run this season.

1. Oregon (90%) – When Sabrina Ionescu announced she was returning to Oregon for her senior season, the Ducks instantly became the odds-on favorite to win it all next year. In addition, Oregon loses only one player, guard Maite Cazorla, and returns several talented players from injuries. It could be a great year for Kelly Graves and the Oregon Ducks.

(Before washing my mouth out with soap) Don't underestimate Muffet. She finds a way. Whether, it is a snuck-through transfer, an equilibrium-challenged and human-touch-sensitive former soccer player, or a Deus ex Machina, she will be there at closing time. Since and including 2010-2011, she has had every team get to the E8, except 2016, the Mo-Morgan-Stewie Senior Juggernaut, where I wonder if she was just as happy not to give Geno the pleasure of throttle her minions.

 

[bbsamjj]

I would be surprised if Stanford is not back in the Elite 8 next year at least. They lose Smith, but return their next 6 highest scorers, plus are bringing in the #1 recruit in the nation.

 

[IrishTiger]

In an unusual occurrence, the top 8 seeds all made the Elite 8 this year. While every one of those teams loses key players, some have a much better chance to return to the Elite 8 and beyond next season. I’ve ranked each team’s chances from 8 to 1 (worst to best) along with a percentage guesstimate for each team to return to the Elite 8 next season. Generally, I only evaluated returning players, not freshmen or transfers, even though freshmen and transfers will play a role for many of these teams.

8. Iowa (0%) – The Hawkeyes had a wonderful season behind Naismith Award winner Megan Gustafson, who carried Iowa for much of the season including big wins over MD and MO down the stretch. The Hawkeyes not only lose Gustafson, but also starting pg Tania Davis as well as starting forward Hannah Stewart. Iowa is unlikely to make it back to the Elite 8 next year, let alone compete for a Big10 title.

7. MS ST (10%) – Vic has done a great job at MS St. With Bibby back next year, along with some solid returning players, the Bulldogs will continue to be competitive. But you can’t teach size, and MS ST has no one to replace McGowan. Add in the loss of starters Anriel Howard, Jazzmun Holmes and Jordan Danberry and the Bulldogs will clearly be in rebuilding mode.

6. ND (30%) – ND lost every single starter from one of their greatest teams ever, and they really didn’t play their bench very much in big games. But the Irish have some highly recruited players, including size on the bench. MM will have them playing their best come tournament time, so it’s not impossible that ND makes it back to the Elite 8 next year.

5. Louisville (30%) – The Cardinals lost their three best offensive threats in Carter, Fuehring and AA Asia Durr. I’m not sure where the points will come from next year, but they do have some solid defensive players, size and rebounding, and Walz is a very capable coach. I rank them just ahead of ND because they have more experience returning.

4. Stanford (50%) - Stanford loses their best player in forward Alanna Smith. They also lose key reserve Shannon Coffee and probably guard Marta Sneizak who was out most of the year with an injury. But Stanford has some talented guards/wings returning, and if any team should get a boost from their freshmen it would be Stanford. Outside of the guy in Storrs, CT, no other coach does a better job of having her team ready to play in March.

3. UConn (65%) - UConn is losing 2 incredible senior AA’s, after losing 3 top-10 draft picks last year, after losing 3 AA’s the prior year. You get the picture? UConn will have the best starting four East of Eugene, OR next year. In addition, Christyn Williams should be a 1st team AA. The Huskies absolutely need to find a 5th starter and hopefully a capable reserve or two. But UConn has Geno and they don’t. That should be enough.

2. Baylor (75%) - Yes, you can’t teach size, and Brown will be missed in Waco. But the Lady Bears dodged a bullet with Cox, and she will be the best post player in the country next year. Baylor has a lot of talent and depth coming back including star players Landrum, Richards and Smith. The Lady Bear’s success may come down to how well they replace converted pg Chloe Jackson who was tremendous in their championship run this season.

1. Oregon (90%) – When Sabrina Ionescu announced she was returning to Oregon for her senior season, the Ducks instantly became the odds-on favorite to win it all next year. In addition, Oregon loses only one player, guard Maite Cazorla, and returns several talented players from injuries. It could be a great year for Kelly Graves and the Oregon Ducks.

If ND can make the Elite 8 next season. I’d consider that a really successful season.

 

[GoDawgs4]

While State is losing McCowan (6’7”) we do have a couple of ladies in the 6’4”-6’5” range for next year so we will not be completely devoid of height.
We will be young but we will be talented. Bibby’s injury did allow some younger players to get some valuable playing time this year that they would have otherwise not gotten.
Still I look for us to be a Top 15 team in November-December-January but with potential to be playing like a Top Ten team in February-March even if our record/Ranking says otherwise.

 

[Dokey]

2020 Final Four
Oregon - loaded
Baylor - Cox
UConn - coaching
Stanford - coaching

Possibles
South Carolina because of recruits
Mississippi State because of coaching, more a feeling than logic

 

[Longtime fan]

I would give Stanford a better chance than UConn. Maybe switch their %.

Stanford has recruited the number one HS player in the nation, entering as a freshman. Uconn has Danger, Walker, and Williams.....the latter two not yet at ( hopefully ) their peak. Olivia is, until proven differently, a potential player. She needs muscle, power and an ability to shoot 10 foot jump shots with precision. She also has to learn how to play without fouling. She is unlikely to blossom until her junior year. She will be fine against AAC competition, but not against that Cox person at Baylor.

Beyond that, we must be planning on starting the one recruit from Ossining. What can we expect? Walker and Williams were both rated the top players coming out of HS, and their contributions varied widely as freshman. You expect " more and better" from our one recruit? And you didn't mention our bench. I think we all know why.

In my view, there is little chance UCONN makes the elite 8 next season unless, as has been suggested, all the other good teams have lost so much talent that they are terrible. An ebbing tide lowers all ships?

 

[oldude]

Stanford has recruited the number one HS player in the nation, entering as a freshman. Uconn has Danger, Walker, and Williams.....the latter two not yet at ( hopefully ) their peak. Olivia is, until proven differently, a potential player. She needs muscle, power and an ability to shoot 10 foot jump shots with precision. She also has to learn how to play without fouling. She is unlikely to blossom until her junior year. She will be fine against AAC competition, but not against that Cox person at Baylor.

Beyond that, we must be planning on starting the one recruit from Ossining. What can we expect? Walker and Williams were both rated the top players coming out of HS, and their contributions varied widely as freshman. You expect " more and better" from our one recruit? And you didn't mention our bench. I think we all know why.

In my view, there is little chance UCONN makes the elite 8 next season unless, as has been suggested, all the other good teams have lost so much talent that they are terrible. An ebbing tide lowers all ships?

Here again, I ask the question, give me 8 teams that will be better than UConn next season?

 

[Jmsdawg]

Here again, I ask the question, give me 8 teams that will be better than UConn next season?

I still expect UConn to be an elite team and I suspect there will be more elite level teams next year than we had this year. It is hard for me to imagine UConn not being in the top eight.

 

[biobioprof]

Here again, I ask the question, give me 8 teams that will be better than UConn next season?

Overall, I think you're right, but let's unpack it.

I think everyone agrees that if Iowa doesn't fall out of that level it will be a huge surprise. Oregon, Baylor, and Stanford are high probability E8 teams. So let's narrow the question to finding 5 teams that might be better than UConn out of Louisville, ND, and everyone else who didn't make the E8 this year. Depending on what you think the joint probability is of ND and Louisville both making or missing the E8 affects how many non E8s you need to find.

The obvious first place to look is in the S16 losers
Texas A&M
Oregon State
NC State
UCLA
S. Carolina
Arizona State
S Dakota State
Missouri State

Add in the more promising round of 32 losers
Florida State
Miami
Syracuse

I'd be curious about the board's assessment of each of these teams in 2019-20. I'm biased but I think A&M has the highest probability of crashing the E8 or better party, barring roster chaos. All starters return along with Wilson, who started before her knee injury. Others have made the case for the Beavers. I think Missouri State is very unlikely to do it. I'm intrigued by NC State. Cunane as a soph could be a force but I haven't paid enough attention to who else is coming back other than that they lose the one who was drafted last night.

Even if TAMU, Ore St. and NC State all make it, that's not enough to bump UConn IMO.

 

[Dokey]

Of course, if Cox, Ionescu or Dangerfield go down with a season ending injury...or, is there someone out there waiting to explode, say an Espinoza-Hunter, who drives their team. If speculations led to libations we'd all be staggering home.

 

[Buildabear]

2020 Final Four
Oregon - loaded
Baylor - Cox
UConn - coaching
Stanford - coaching

Possibles
South Carolina because of recruits
Mississippi State because of coaching, more a feeling than logic

I love Cox, but Baylor will have way more than Cox. Juicy, Didi, Lyssa, Queen,moon, and decosta. Alot of you may not have has the opportunity to see them in action. But trust they are the real deal. As everyone will see next year. Maybe more talented than this year.

 

[oldude]

Of course, if Cox, Ionescu or Dangerfield go down with a season ending injury...or, is there someone out there waiting to explode, say an Espinoza-Hunter, who drives their team. If speculations led to libations we'd all be staggering home.

I’m shocked...shocked to find that speculation is going on in here.....

 

[EricLA]

UCONN top 8? Yes. Top 4? Not sure at this point. Possibly not. The team as it stands now could be a final 4 team, but more likely IMHO they would lose in the elite 8. However, I don't believe we are done recruiting. Let's talk in a month or 2 after the recruitment of the foreign kids is done and after the grad transfers etc. have all made their decisions...

I do think with Cox back, Baylor and Oregon are the 2 best teams in the nation. It remains to be seen how it all plays out - strange things can happen (Baylor losing to L'ville in the NCAA's when Baylor had Griner)...

 

[DeeHusky]

-I think Texas A&M can make the elite eight next year. They return Carter 23.3 ppg, Johnson 12 ppg, Wells 15.1 ppg, Washington 4.8 ppg, Jones 7.7 ppg, and Wilson (13.8) returns from injury. They gave Notre Dame a run for their money in the Sweet 16. They finished third in the SEC behind Miss St and S. Carolina. Now can they make the final four? IDK. Their offense depends too much on Carter when these other players are clearly capable of scoring.

-I do not think Miss St will be in rebuilding mode, I think they will be in reloading mode. They have Bibby, Promise Taylor, AEH, Carter, Scott, Taylor and bunch of good freshmen coming in. Vic is no stranger to losing good players and being just as good the next year.

I think Maryland will be good next year as well, that's only if Brenda can develop all of that talent she has already there and incoming. She needs to start playing a tough schedule so they can be battle tested come NCAA T time.

Other than that, I agree with your analysis. And no, there are not 8 teams better than UConn. I think Megan Walker and Christyn Williams will be two of the best players in WCBB next year. Crystal will be the best point guard behind Ionescu. ONO has no choice but to get better because they are no other options and she's 6'5 so I except her to be good. So no there aren't eight teams better than UConn. I have no reason to think so when they've been to 12 straight final fours.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Stanford has gotten at least as far as the Elite 8 12 of the last 16 Tourneys, so that's not exactly going out on a limb.

 

[Geesworld]

Mississippi, ND, Louisville will not make elite 8

Pac 12 Should field at least three Elite 8 teams and it will be dog fight for #1 seed in the west.
ACC Dominance will take a hit. Louisville and ND will start slow but will be in the mix come late season. 2 to 3 seed at best for them.
Big 10 Takes a big hit with Iowa falling back to the pack. Maryland should have a cake walk and should be a favorite for Final Four. Rutgers should make huge jump.
Big 12 Texas should make huge jump and give Baylor a dog fight.
SEC This conference is full of talent but top team the top teams are in shambles or losing key pieces. Pick'em Conference.

Top 4
Oregon -Returning 4 starters, If they find someone to take pressure off Ionescu they will be hard to beat.
Oregon St -Two 6'7/6'8 Post player plus they return everybody.
Baylor -Lauren Cox mixed with a bunch of athletic lengthy players should be a favorite again. Need a PG and add some perimeter shooting.
Maryland -Returning a lot of promising players and also have great Recruiting class.

Last Four
Texas A&M -Should be top four team. Just not sure who they are as a team.
UCONN -There is a lot of things that have to happen for them to creep into the Top 4 But they have enough talent to place in the Elite 8
Stanford -Young talent mixed with current talent will keep them in the hunt. Tara teams usually start slow and pick up as the year moves on. Should be much of the same next year.
Last spot will be ACC team.