How will this year's Elite 8 do next year?

[DeeHusky]

So the 6’5” freshman and one time #1 player in her HS glass, who Geno has been praising throughout the last month of the season, you don’t consider to be much of a post player?

Lol, I was disagreeing with the post that I quoted that gave us a 1/5 chance of making the elite 8. I think she's great, she has no choice but to be. Hopefully she doesn't disappoint. I think we make the final four. I think Christyn Williams will be a breakout star and lead the team. And I also think Griffin will surprise a lot of people. Camara will have no choice but to step up as well.

 

[bballnut90]

Baylor- 100%. They had a bench that on its own is Top 5. Then they have amazing recruits. 100%

And Maryland is 90%. They have awesome talent coming back, and even as awesome talent coming in. The only wild card is their coach. She just doesn't seem to have what it takes to retain, develop, motivate and coach her talent on through to ultimate victory.

Stanford is way better than just a coin toss. They return everyone of note except their center. And they're filling up on top talent. They're making it back. No matter what!

Connecticut? If they make it to the Elite Eight, it will have been Coach Geno who leads them through. We just don't have the front court. Keep in mind how we were outrebounded massively by Baylor earlier this year, then outrebounded by Louisville and ND? And now we're without 6'2" Napheesa Collier and 6'3" Katie Lou Samuelson. And all we've got in terms of dependable front court is a rising sophomore who is highly foul-prone.

I'd give us one chance in five of keeping that streak alive. We have to be honest...

How do you put Maryland, a team that has missed 4 straight Elite 8s, at 90%, and put Connecticut, a team that has made 12 straight and has 3 double digit scorers returning (plus ONO) at 20%? Stop trying to pretend UCONN is an underdog...they're not.

 

[oldude]

Lol, I was disagreeing with the post that I quoted that gave us a 1/5 chance of making the elite 8. I think she's great, she has no choice but to be. Hopefully she doesn't disappoint. I think we make the final four. I think Christyn Williams will be a breakout star and lead the team. And I also think Griffin will surprise a lot of people. Camara will have no choice but to step up as well.

My Bad. Hard to keep up with all the dualing posts.

 

[nwhoopfan]

@DefenseBB I don't want to quote that whole post you quoted and added comments to. Just responding to the part about Oregon St. being expected to win rather than the hunter. I think they've been in that position for years now and have adjusted to it. 6 straight years of finishing no lower than 3rd in conference (and 3 conference Titles) and at least 1 Tourney win each of those years. Winning is definitely expected now.

 

[SLY63]

When you look at Miss State, it is really hard to predict how the loss of such a dominant player will impact the team. The other four on the floor were probably playing 4 on 3 in many cases. That kind of a loss can have enormous impact. Similar but to a lesser extent at Baylor.

 

[msf22b]

Not a single word about Tennessee
Lots of good players
Lots of good recruits
Kellie Harper may have them playing legitimate BB in an augenblick.

Watch out!

 

[Geesworld]

I appreciate the full effort by @Geesworld here, however I am not convinced about some of the assertions as I note in the body below

I appreciate the full effort by @Geesworld here, however I am not convinced about some of the assertions as I note in the body below

Great recap and much appreciated rebuttal. I agree about Texas and Karen offense. They do have enough talent to compete, Karen just needs to figure it out. I also like your ACC assessment. It so wide open that its Partially the reason why I left a slot open for my Elite 8. I have FSU winning ACC.

 

[GoDawgs4]

When you look at Miss State, it is really hard to predict how the loss of such a dominant player will impact the team. The other four on the floor were probably playing 4 on 3 in many cases. That kind of a loss can have enormous impact. Similar but to a lesser extent at Baylor.

You are correct. If we did not have a couple of talented 6’5” post players , I would be extremely worried. Now it is still a concern but I think we will be okay in the post.

 

[DefenseBB]

@DefenseBB I don't want to quote that whole post you quoted and added comments to. Just responding to the part about Oregon St. being expected to win rather than the hunter. I think they've been in that position for years now and have adjusted to it. 6 straight years of finishing no lower than 3rd in conference (and 3 conference Titles) and at least 1 Tourney win each of those years. Winning is definitely expected now.

Coach Rueck has made the ascension not just top 3 in the PAC12 but he's now on the National scene as team to be reckoned with. That was not the case even when they made the final four nor were those the expectations of the last two years-top 10 maybe, top 5 not so much. Next year huge expectations to make a great 8 again and a final four will be predicted (and rightfully so) I just haven't seen those types of national predictions before for his teams at OSU.

 

[DefenseBB]

Not a single word about Tennessee
Lots of good players
Lots of good recruits
Kellie Harper may have them playing legitimate BB in an augenblick.

Watch out!

I beg to differ as I put in a few words-and a big gap with a bunch of young players at USC and Tenn
So I have them in the top 4 of the SEC. I am still not convinced she's a great coach but as I noted the SEC is down so her coaching improvement over Holly will help some.

 

[Dillon77]

You are correct. If we did not have a couple of talented 6’5” post players , I would be extremely worried. Now it is still a concern but I think we will be okay in the post.

I really liked what Chloe Bibby was doing for that team until she suffered her injury.
As an Irish fan, I've seen how long it takes for players to truly "get back" from their ACLs. I think this board can agree it took Bri Turner most of the season before she started looking "like the Bri of old" (way back to her junior year). And she went down in March 2017 and trained assiduously.

Can she come back to full strength next season? Or will it be a situation of getting stronger as she goes? With MS State's backcourt depleted, Bibby will be looked upon for leadership, as well. Would be interested in Bulldog reports on how her rehab is going.

 

[meyers7]

Not a single word about Tennessee
Lots of good players
Lots of good recruits
Kellie Harper may have them playing legitimate BB in an augenblick.

Watch out!

Always good to bring some humor into these threads to keep them light.

 

[Dillon77]

No doubt ND has some high prospects. What the Irish don’t have is meaningful PT with any of those prospects.

But they will have meaningful playing time -- and plenty of it -- come next season.

And most of them have either been McDonald's All Americans and/or been selected/played for U.S. National Teams. Perhaps more importantly, MM thinks they can play in her sets.

Anaya Peoples and Katlyn Gilbert will have four years together, after growing up together in AAU. As many noted after the Mickey D game, Peoples is calm, focused and tough and has the ability to get to the line, which MM loves. They'll join Abby Prohaska, who got the most playing time of any of the subs (which, granted, was not a lot). We'll see if Abby has more than just the proverbial glue to her game.

Question marks:
- Will PG Jordan Nixon play up to the level that got her in the starting lineup when Mabrey was out in the beginning of the season? Or be in a dogfight to get PT with Peoples or Gilbert?
- Will Mik Vaughn get back some more of the explosiveness we saw her frosh year before she had an ACL. Yes, she played this year and did ok, but hope to see more mobility in the lane.
- Will all the light bulbs go off for Dani Patterson? Shows glimmers, but also gets chewed out by MM.
- And, of course, what can Sam Brunelle bring to the team, both individually and collectively?

I expect MM will have to look at the grad transfer list for some help, particularly for proven long-range shooting. Right now, returning post Danielle Cosgrove is the leading returning Irish 3-pt. shooter.
Sam B. will be leaned on heavily there, but she could use help.

Having said all that, MM and her staff can peel the proverbial target off their backs from this year and get back to doing what she enjoys most (and is probably best at): teaching in practice. They'll have some bumps but I look forward to (knock on wood) gradual improvement as the season progresses.

 

[Dokey]

I love Cox, but Baylor will have way more than Cox. Juicy, Didi, Lyssa, Queen,moon, and decosta. Alot of you may not have has the opportunity to see them in action. But trust they are the real deal. As everyone will see next year. Maybe more talented than this year.

Perhaps. Height drives Baylor. They won in 2012 with Griner, in 2019 with Brown. Cox makes them a FF contender in 2020, without her an EE contender.

 

[Dokey]

I’m shocked...shocked to find that speculation is going on in here.....

Us speculate? You must be kidding.

 

[biobioprof]

Perhaps. Height drives Baylor. They won in 2012 with Griner, in 2019 with Brown. Cox makes them a FF contender in 2020, without her an EE contender.

IIRC, some of the E8 teams between the last two Baylor NCs weren’t dominated by exceptional height. I’m trying to recall who got minutes on the Nina Davis teams.

In any case, Kim seems to be able to recruit Texas bigs pretty well. But did anyone else think her recruiting pitch on the postgame interview for the semfinal was weird? IIRC it was something like come to Baylor, big girls, because we won’t make you set picks and we’ll get you the ball.

It struck me as especially odd to say after playing against Oregon’s pick and roll offense.

 

[LoTrader]

1. Oregon-95%, it'll be a massive massive upset if they don't make at least the Elite 8 next year with everyone sans Cazorla. Keep in mind they get another home regional next year, so they'll likely face a 4 seed in front of a home crowd.

2. Baylor-90%, again it'll be a total shocker if they lose prior to the Elite 8. They have so much talent and will have a strong home crowd atmosphere playing in Dallas.

3. UCONN-85%, the last time UCONN didn't make the Elite 8 was 2005, the first year post DT. UCONN doesn't have depth but are very top heavy, especially if ONO/CW make strides. They'll likely be worse than they were this year, but most teams look worse on paper headed into next year.

4. Stanford-70%, they have a solid roster returning and an excellent coach. I'd say it's a strong chance they make it back.

5. Louisville-30%, they have Evans coming back and some other reserves but losing Carter/Fuehring/Durr hurts big time. Uphill battle for Walz.

6. ND-10%, it'll take somewhat of a miracle IMO for Muffet to get back to the Final Four unless her players are much better than anyone thinks. The only highly recruited player on the team is Brunelle. None of their current bench players were top 25 recruits, nor have they looked good in games. I can't remember ND ever having such a young, unheralded and inexperienced roster. Muffet is a wizard though so we'll see what magic she cooks up.

7. Mississippi State-35%, McCowan is gone but Mississippi State appears to have a formidable lineup on paper next year. They return 3 of the best 3pt shooters in the SEC (AEH, Scott and Bibby all shot between 43-46% from 3) so I'd expect their offense to revolve around perimeter players. Inside Mississippi State is still going to be physical and formidable. They have two 6-5 posts in Promise Taylor and Jessika Carter who will hold down the center spot and do their best McCowan impression. Taylor is a very good shot blocker and has a 7-0 wingspan. Carter is a big body and should improve with more PT. Big question is PG play but Vic is one of the best at developing PGs to make good decisions. Plus they have Rickea Jackson coming. I think this is a likely Sweet 16 squad with a decent chance at an Elite 8.

8. Iowa-0%, no Gustafson=no chance.

Oregon is not a lock to be playing in the Portland Regional next year. Oregon will have much greater competition from both OSU and Stanford. Losing Cazorla is a very significant loss, more than most are acknowledging.

 

[Jmsdawg]

I really liked what Chloe Bibby was doing for that team until she suffered her injury.
As an Irish fan, I've seen how long it takes for players to truly "get back" from their ACLs. I think this board can agree it took Bri Turner most of the season before she started looking "like the Bri of old" (way back to her junior year). And she went down in March 2017 and trained assiduously.

Can she come back to full strength next season? Or will it be a situation of getting stronger as she goes? With MS State's backcourt depleted, Bibby will be looked upon for leadership, as well. Would be interested in Bulldog reports on how her rehab is going.

ACL injury recovery is more than just physical with many players, once injured it is hard to forget the injury and a player may hold back. Iggy Allen is an example of a player physically recovering but not playing with the same zest prior to the injury. Hope Chloe can fully recover and play as she did before the injury because she can be special. Comment on MSST post play, Promise Taylor is going to surprise a lot of fans who have never seen her play, she is very good, my concern is PG, Hope M. Taylor can find the magic she had in HS!

 

[bballnut90]

IIRC, some of the E8 teams between the last two Baylor NCs weren’t dominated by exceptional height. I’m trying to recall who got minutes on the Nina Davis teams.

In any case, Kim seems to be able to recruit Texas bigs pretty well. But did anyone else think her recruiting pitch on the postgame interview for the semfinal was weird? IIRC it was something like come to Baylor, big girls, because we won’t make you set picks and we’ll get you the ball.

It struck me as especially odd to say after playing against Oregon’s pick and roll offense.

Baylor didn't have height during their 2005 run...I think it's more coincidental than anything else. I've never thought of Baylor as "Big Girl U", although it's looking that way as of late with Griner/Brown/Cox/Egbo. Nina Davis also played like a post in many ways despite being very undersized.

I think the Final Four statement was Kim just being more playful but also pitching that her offense prioritizes old school style of play--get your butt on the block and we'll feed it to you.

 

[BroadwayVa]

To some degree, I’m assuming a significant sophomore leap for Liv. If she becomes the player we all believe she can be, sooner rather than later, then rebounding and post defense become much less of a concern next season.

My 3 and a half cents--Your analysis above is great.
I agree and disagree about ONO. I think as long as Olivia is a Uconn player she'll defend the basket. Why? Because she is becoming a KIAH who can and will score. I concur with the assessment she will make a huge Soph leap--we've seen that coming in the final games of the season.

 

[Dillon77]

I'll take a shot at venturing opinions on those Sweet 16 teams that I saw when they played Irish, were on the ACC Network or elsewhere.

- Texas A&M: Played the Irish tough (again). Like you said, everyone is scheduled to be back (we'll see). If Ciera Johnson can continue to improve down low, even better. Carter still strikes me as Allen Iverson-esque: take you to heights, then runs out of gas/focus. If that can be tweaked, watch out. Should crack Elite 8.

- Oregon State: All the main scorers are back and the tall frosh and redshirts are available. If and when Rueck meshes them, this could be interesting. Should crack Elite 8.

- NC State: Hmm. Center Cunane could become a force in the ACC and senior guard Aislinn Konig is back to steady the ship and launch 3-point. bombs. But guard Kiara Leslie is off to the WNBA and rock-sold forward DD Rodgers graduates. Can guard Grace Hunter rebound from a knee injury? How does the good incoming frosh class mesh in? Wes Moore is a great coach and the team gets better as the season goes on. Sweet 16 yes. Maybe Elite 8.

- Syracuse: Outside of Miranda Drummond, all the Orange are back and I think there's another good recruiting class coming in. But this year's team struck me as a case of the whole being not as good as the sum of its parts. Saw glimpses from various international players, transfers (Kiara Lewis from Ohio State) and frosh, but when it's crunch time, the ball ended up in the marvelous Tiana Mangakahia's hands, for better or worse. I say the latter because better teams adjusted to her and lessened her impact. Coach Q needs to get Emily Engstler in the lineup and deal with her growing pains: she's got the talent to help. Otherwise, Sweet 16.

- Miami: Mompremier is back in the paint, as is guard Mykea Gray. But the seasoned Dutch duo of post Emese Hof and point guard Laura Cornelius are gone. Incoming post Sydnee Roby was the Wisconsin player of the year, but she can't be expected to play at the level of Hof. At best, Sweet 16.

 

[bballnut90]

Depending on how things shake out, Tennessee is another team that could be a good dark horse pick (if that's possible) as an Elite 8 competitor. If Westbrook stays, a starting lineup of Horston, Westbrook, Green, Davis and Collins would be match up favorably with most teams.

 

[JordyG]

I would give Stanford a better chance than UConn. Maybe switch their %.

Maybe.

 

[j66kicker]

Oregon is not a lock to be playing in the Portland Regional next year. Oregon will have much greater competition from both OSU and Stanford. Losing Cazorla is a very significant loss, more than most are acknowledging.

I think Oregon is a lock. If the younger Sabally is anything like expected they could go undefeated in the PAC 12. Even if she is still hurt and doesn't play at all they should win the PAC 12 going away, and beat just about everybody non-conference (except UConn, of course ). They are definitely a 1 seed.

 

[j66kicker]

In any case, Kim seems to be able to recruit Texas bigs pretty well. But did anyone else think her recruiting pitch on the postgame interview for the semfinal was weird? IIRC it was something like come to Baylor, big girls, because we won’t make you set picks and we’ll get you the ball.

It struck me as especially odd to say after playing against Oregon’s pick and roll offense.

I thought it was totally shameless, unabashed recruiting: "We love big girls here - the bigger the better. Come on down!!"