How will this year's Elite 8 do next year?

[Carnac]

I’m shocked...shocked to find that speculation is going on in here.....

Sounds like something Captain Louis Renault (prefecture of police) once said.

 

[bballnut90]

In an unusual occurrence, the top 8 seeds all made the Elite 8 this year. While every one of those teams loses key players, some have a much better chance to return to the Elite 8 and beyond next season. I’ve ranked each team’s chances from 8 to 1 (worst to best) along with a percentage guesstimate for each team to return to the Elite 8 next season. Generally, I only evaluated returning players, not freshmen or transfers, even though freshmen and transfers will play a role for many of these teams.

8. Iowa (0%) – The Hawkeyes had a wonderful season behind Naismith Award winner Megan Gustafson, who carried Iowa for much of the season including big wins over MD and MO down the stretch. The Hawkeyes not only lose Gustafson, but also starting pg Tania Davis as well as starting forward Hannah Stewart. Iowa is unlikely to make it back to the Elite 8 next year, let alone compete for a Big10 title.

7. MS ST (10%) – Vic has done a great job at MS St. With Bibby back next year, along with some solid returning players, the Bulldogs will continue to be competitive. But you can’t teach size, and MS ST has no one to replace McGowan. Add in the loss of starters Anriel Howard, Jazzmun Holmes and Jordan Danberry and the Bulldogs will clearly be in rebuilding mode.

6. ND (30%) – ND lost every single starter from one of their greatest teams ever, and they really didn’t play their bench very much in big games. But the Irish have some highly recruited players, including size on the bench. MM will have them playing their best come tournament time, so it’s not impossible that ND makes it back to the Elite 8 next year.

5. Louisville (30%) – The Cardinals lost their three best offensive threats in Carter, Fuehring and AA Asia Durr. I’m not sure where the points will come from next year, but they do have some solid defensive players, size and rebounding, and Walz is a very capable coach. I rank them just ahead of ND because they have more experience returning.

4. Stanford (50%) - Stanford loses their best player in forward Alanna Smith. They also lose key reserve Shannon Coffee and probably guard Marta Sneizak who was out most of the year with an injury. But Stanford has some talented guards/wings returning, and if any team should get a boost from their freshmen it would be Stanford. Outside of the guy in Storrs, CT, no other coach does a better job of having her team ready to play in March.

3. UConn (65%) - UConn is losing 2 incredible senior AA’s, after losing 3 top-10 draft picks last year, after losing 3 AA’s the prior year. You get the picture? UConn will have the best starting four East of Eugene, OR next year. In addition, Christyn Williams should be a 1st team AA. The Huskies absolutely need to find a 5th starter and hopefully a capable reserve or two. But UConn has Geno and they don’t. That should be enough.

2. Baylor (75%) - Yes, you can’t teach size, and Brown will be missed in Waco. But the Lady Bears dodged a bullet with Cox, and she will be the best post player in the country next year. Baylor has a lot of talent and depth coming back including star players Landrum, Richards and Smith. The Lady Bear’s success may come down to how well they replace converted pg Chloe Jackson who was tremendous in their championship run this season.

1. Oregon (90%) – When Sabrina Ionescu announced she was returning to Oregon for her senior season, the Ducks instantly became the odds-on favorite to win it all next year. In addition, Oregon loses only one player, guard Maite Cazorla, and returns several talented players from injuries. It could be a great year for Kelly Graves and the Oregon Ducks.

1. Oregon-95%, it'll be a massive massive upset if they don't make at least the Elite 8 next year with everyone sans Cazorla. Keep in mind they get another home regional next year, so they'll likely face a 4 seed in front of a home crowd.

2. Baylor-90%, again it'll be a total shocker if they lose prior to the Elite 8. They have so much talent and will have a strong home crowd atmosphere playing in Dallas.

3. UCONN-85%, the last time UCONN didn't make the Elite 8 was 2005, the first year post DT. UCONN doesn't have depth but are very top heavy, especially if ONO/CW make strides. They'll likely be worse than they were this year, but most teams look worse on paper headed into next year.

4. Stanford-70%, they have a solid roster returning and an excellent coach. I'd say it's a strong chance they make it back.

5. Louisville-30%, they have Evans coming back and some other reserves but losing Carter/Fuehring/Durr hurts big time. Uphill battle for Walz.

6. ND-10%, it'll take somewhat of a miracle IMO for Muffet to get back to the Final Four unless her players are much better than anyone thinks. The only highly recruited player on the team is Brunelle. None of their current bench players were top 25 recruits, nor have they looked good in games. I can't remember ND ever having such a young, unheralded and inexperienced roster. Muffet is a wizard though so we'll see what magic she cooks up.

7. Mississippi State-35%, McCowan is gone but Mississippi State appears to have a formidable lineup on paper next year. They return 3 of the best 3pt shooters in the SEC (AEH, Scott and Bibby all shot between 43-46% from 3) so I'd expect their offense to revolve around perimeter players. Inside Mississippi State is still going to be physical and formidable. They have two 6-5 posts in Promise Taylor and Jessika Carter who will hold down the center spot and do their best McCowan impression. Taylor is a very good shot blocker and has a 7-0 wingspan. Carter is a big body and should improve with more PT. Big question is PG play but Vic is one of the best at developing PGs to make good decisions. Plus they have Rickea Jackson coming. I think this is a likely Sweet 16 squad with a decent chance at an Elite 8.

8. Iowa-0%, no Gustafson=no chance.

 

[wallman]

Nylissa Smith, hope my spelling is correct.

 

[biobioprof]

Mississippi, ND, Louisville will not make elite 8

Pac 12 Should field at least three Elite 8 teams and it will be dog fight for #1 seed in the west.
ACC Dominance will take a hit. Louisville and ND will start slow but will be in the mix come late season. 2 to 3 seed at best for them.
Big 10 Takes a big hit with Iowa falling back to the pack. Maryland should have a cake walk and should be a favorite for Final Four. Rutgers should make huge jump.
Big 12 Texas should make huge jump and give Baylor a dog fight.
SEC This conference is full of talent but top team the top teams are in shambles or losing key pieces. Pick'em Conference.

Top 4
Oregon -Returning 4 starters, If they find someone to take pressure off Ionescu they will be hard to beat.
Oregon St -Two'7/6'8 Post player plus they return everybody.
Baylor -Lauren Cox mixed with a bunch of athletic lengthy players should be a favorite again. Need a PG and add some perimeter shooting.
Maryland -Returninig a lot of promising players and also have great Recruiting class.

Last Four
Texas A&M -Should be top four team. Just not sure who they are as a team.
UCONN -There is a lot of things that have to happen for them to creep into the Top 4 But they have enough talent to place in the Elite 8
Stanford -Young talent mixed with current talent will keep them in the hunt. Tara teams usually start slow and pick up as the year moves on. Should be much of the same next year.
Last spot will be ACC team.

Why do you think Texas makes a huge jump? I assume Higgs and Prince will be back. But are you expecting them to be more competitive with Baylor (and the rest of WBB) than the 2017-18 Horns?

 

[oldude]

1. Oregon-95%, it'll be a massive massive upset if they don't make at least the Elite 8 next year with everyone sans Cazorla. Keep in mind they get another home regional next year, so they'll likely face a 4 seed in front of a home crowd.

2. Baylor-90%, again it'll be a total shocker if they lose prior to the Elite 8. They have so much talent and will have a strong home crowd atmosphere playing in Dallas.

3. UCONN-85%, the last time UCONN didn't make the Elite 8 was 2005, the first year post DT. UCONN doesn't have depth but are very top heavy, especially if ONO/CW make strides. They'll likely be worse than they were this year, but most teams look worse on paper headed into next year.

4. Stanford-70%, they have a solid roster returning and an excellent coach. I'd say it's a strong chance they make it back.

5. Louisville-30%, they have Evans coming back and some other reserves but losing Carter/Fuehring/Durr hurts big time. Uphill battle for Walz.

6. ND-10%, it'll take somewhat of a miracle IMO for Muffet to get back to the Final Four unless her players are much better than anyone thinks. The only highly recruited player on the team is Brunelle. None of their current bench players were top 25 recruits, nor have they looked good in games. I can't remember ND ever having such a young, unheralded and inexperienced roster. Muffet is a wizard though so we'll see what magic she cooks up.

7. Mississippi State-35%, McCowan is gone but Mississippi State appears to have a formidable lineup on paper next year. They return 3 of the best 3pt shooters in the SEC (AEH, Scott and Bibby all shot between 43-46% from 3) so I'd expect their offense to revolve around perimeter players. Inside Mississippi State is still going to be physical and formidable. They have two 6-5 posts in Promise Taylor and Jessika Carter who will hold down the center spot and do their best McCowan impression. Taylor is a very good shot blocker and has a 7-0 wingspan. Carter is a big body and should improve with more PT. Big question is PG play but Vic is one of the best at developing PGs to make good decisions. Plus they have Rickea Jackson coming. I think this is a likely Sweet 16 squad with a decent chance at an Elite 8.

8. Iowa-0%, no Gustafson=no chance.

I can agree with just about all your assessments except MS St. Yes they have shooters, but without McGowan & Howard’s presence inside, and without Holmes & Danberry’s ability to penetrate and kick the ball out to their shooters, a lot of those shots will be contested next year.

 

[oldude]

Sounds like something Captain Louis Renault (prefecture of police) once said.

View attachment 42184

My favorite movie line that I paraphrase frequently on the BY.

 

[IrishTiger]

1. Oregon-95%, it'll be a massive massive upset if they don't make at least the Elite 8 next year with everyone sans Cazorla. Keep in mind they get another home regional next year, so they'll likely face a 4 seed in front of a home crowd.

2. Baylor-90%, again it'll be a total shocker if they lose prior to the Elite 8. They have so much talent and will have a strong home crowd atmosphere playing in Dallas.

3. UCONN-85%, the last time UCONN didn't make the Elite 8 was 2005, the first year post DT. UCONN doesn't have depth but are very top heavy, especially if ONO/CW make strides. They'll likely be worse than they were this year, but most teams look worse on paper headed into next year.

4. Stanford-70%, they have a solid roster returning and an excellent coach. I'd say it's a strong chance they make it back.

5. Louisville-30%, they have Evans coming back and some other reserves but losing Carter/Fuehring/Durr hurts big time. Uphill battle for Walz.

6. ND-10%, it'll take somewhat of a miracle IMO for Muffet to get back to the Final Four unless her players are much better than anyone thinks. The only highly recruited player on the team is Brunelle. None of their current bench players were top 25 recruits, nor have they looked good in games. I can't remember ND ever having such a young, unheralded and inexperienced roster. Muffet is a wizard though so we'll see what magic she cooks up.

7. Mississippi State-35%, McCowan is gone but Mississippi State appears to have a formidable lineup on paper next year. They return 3 of the best 3pt shooters in the SEC (AEH, Scott and Bibby all shot between 43-46% from 3) so I'd expect their offense to revolve around perimeter players. Inside Mississippi State is still going to be physical and formidable. They have two 6-5 posts in Promise Taylor and Jessika Carter who will hold down the center spot and do their best McCowan impression. Taylor is a very good shot blocker and has a 7-0 wingspan. Carter is a big body and should improve with more PT. Big question is PG play but Vic is one of the best at developing PGs to make good decisions. Plus they have Rickea Jackson coming. I think this is a likely Sweet 16 squad with a decent chance at an Elite 8.

8. Iowa-0%, no Gustafson=no chance.

Anaya, Nixon, and KG were all pretty high prospects.

 

[DeeHusky]

Why do you think Texas makes a huge jump? I assume Higgs and Prince will be back. But are you expecting them to be more competitive with Baylor (and the rest of WBB) than the 2017-18 Horns?

I don't think they make a huge jump because of the coach they have. On paper, Suggs, Sutton, Collier, Prince, Holmes sounds like a good core, but I don't expect much from them based on how they've consistently underachieved.

 

[oldude]

Anaya, Nixon, and KG were all pretty high prospects.

No doubt ND has some high prospects. What the Irish don’t have is meaningful PT with any of those prospects.

 

[bballnut90]

Anaya, Nixon, and KG were all pretty high prospects.

I can agree with just about all your assessments except MS St. Yes they have shooters, but without McGowan & Howard’s presence inside, and without Holmes & Danberry’s ability to penetrate and kick the ball out to their shooters, a lot of those shots will be contested next year.

They still have a very good 6-5 post in Taylor coming back who was an impact player at Ole Miss as a frosh and practiced all year against Big T. She's not Big T, but she's good. Howard wasn't an inside player either, she was more of a slasher going to the basket or hit the stop and pop. Wasn't a big creator for others (as evidenced by just 54 assists on the year, less than Brianna Turner at ND).

None of Bibby/AEH/Scott will likely shoot as high of a percentage, but they'll still be potent from deep which likely opens up spacing inside and spreads the defense. Vic is also as good as anyone at developing PGs to make good, smart decisions. Look for Taylor to improve as a PG and creator. He also has Rickea Jackson coming in who could be Victoria Vivians 2.0.

Vic lost 4 starters from his 2018 runner up squad and put together a 33-3 season, losing on the road in the Elite 8. This upcoming season will be more of an uphill battle without Big T and Holmes returning, but I think Mississippi State projects as a top 8-12 team that likely gets a 3 seed and has a decent shot to make the Elite 8. Not a slam dunk, but their odds are more favorable than Notre Dame's IMO.

 

[Oldbones]

Mississippi, ND, Louisville will not make elite 8

Pac 12 Should field at least three Elite 8 teams and it will be dog fight for #1 seed in the west.
ACC Dominance will take a hit. Louisville and ND will start slow but will be in the mix come late season. 2 to 3 seed at best for them.
Big 10 Takes a big hit with Iowa falling back to the pack. Maryland should have a cake walk and should be a favorite for Final Four. Rutgers should make huge jump.
Big 12 Texas should make huge jump and give Baylor a dog fight.
SEC This conference is full of talent but top team the top teams are in shambles or losing key pieces. Pick'em Conference.

Top 4
Oregon -Returning 4 starters, If they find someone to take pressure off Ionescu they will be hard to beat.
Oregon St -Two 6'7/6'8 Post player plus they return everybody.
Baylor -Lauren Cox mixed with a bunch of athletic lengthy players should be a favorite again. Need a PG and add some perimeter shooting.
Maryland -Returning a lot of promising players and also have great Recruiting class.

Last Four
Texas A&M -Should be top four team. Just not sure who they are as a team.
UCONN -There is a lot of things that have to happen for them to creep into the Top 4 But they have enough talent to place in the Elite 8
Stanford -Young talent mixed with current talent will keep them in the hunt. Tara teams usually start slow and pick up as the year moves on. Should be much of the same next year.
Last spot will be ACC team.

Doesn't Maryland always seem to have a Great recruiting class?

 

[bballnut90]

Doesn't Maryland always seem to have a Great recruiting class?
View attachment 42192

Maryland is an interesting one because they return almost everyone and have some top kids coming in but they just weren't a very good team this past season. The first time they played a team that had athleticism and cohesion was UCLA and they lost. Expecting them to jump from being a 2nd round exit to a top 4 squad is a bit extreme IMO. If that does happen, look for big strides from Shakira Austin.

 

[Geesworld]

I don't think they make a huge jump because of the coach they have. On paper, Suggs, Sutton, Collier, Prince, Holmes sounds like a good core, but I don't expect much from them based on how they've consistently underachieved.

Yes on paper Texas should be heavy favorites but based on play they under achieved. First round loss to Indiana was inexcuseable with a team full of talent like Texas. However, I think some of the youth (Charli Collier) will make huge strides now that they will be counted on more. Celeste Taylor, could be a very important freshman and she should help give versatility to the guard position.

 

[oldude]

Maryland is an interesting one because they return almost everyone and have some top kids coming in but they just weren't a very good team this past season. The first time they played a team that had athleticism and cohesion was UCLA and they lost. Expecting them to jump from being a 2nd round exit to a top 4 squad is a bit extreme IMO. If that does happen, look for big strides from Shakira Austin.

MD doesn’t do itself any favors when it comes to scheduling. They play in the weakest of the P5 conferences, and that’s not going to change next season, and Brenda continues to play cupcakes and softballs OOC. This past season, the only perennial Top-10 team on their OOC schedule was SC, and the Gamecocks were not nearly as strong as last year.

So they get to the 2nd round of the Big Dance, Sweet 16, or whatever and face a tough, motivated team and they get upset, as they did in each of the past 3 years to OR, NC St and UCLA respectfully.

 

[DaBball]

Mississippi, ND, Louisville will not make elite 8

Mississippi didn't even make the tournament this season...they have a good coach though, seems like she will turn the program around.

 

[HopJim]

Mississippi, ND, Louisville will not make elite 8

Pac 12 Should field at least three Elite 8 teams and it will be dog fight for #1 seed in the west.
ACC Dominance will take a hit. Louisville and ND will start slow but will be in the mix come late season. 2 to 3 seed at best for them.
Big 10 Takes a big hit with Iowa falling back to the pack. Maryland should have a cake walk and should be a favorite for Final Four. Rutgers should make huge jump.
Big 12 Texas should make huge jump and give Baylor a dog fight.
SEC This conference is full of talent but top team the top teams are in shambles or losing key pieces. Pick'em Conference.

Top 4
Oregon -Returning 4 starters, If they find someone to take pressure off Ionescu they will be hard to beat.
Oregon St -Two 6'7/6'8 Post player plus they return everybody.
Baylor -Lauren Cox mixed with a bunch of athletic lengthy players should be a favorite again. Need a PG and add some perimeter shooting.
Maryland -Returning a lot of promising players and also have great Recruiting class.

Last Four
Texas A&M -Should be top four team. Just not sure who they are as a team.
UCONN -There is a lot of things that have to happen for them to creep into the Top 4 But they have enough talent to place in the Elite 8
Stanford -Young talent mixed with current talent will keep them in the hunt. Tara teams usually start slow and pick up as the year moves on. Should be much of the same next year.
Last spot will be ACC team.

Other than Texas giving Baylor competition, this is a great assessment.

 

[DaBball]

7. MS ST (10%) – Vic has done a great job at MS St. With Bibby back next year, along with some solid returning players, the Bulldogs will continue to be competitive. But you can’t teach size, and MS ST has no one to replace McGowan. Add in the loss of starters Anriel Howard, Jazzmun Holmes and Jordan Danberry and the Bulldogs will clearly be in rebuilding mode.

Mississippi State actually has two players who are capable of replacing McCowan - Promise Taylor and Jessika Carter. Both 6'5", and neither as dominant as McCowan, but they have a shot at being two pretty good SEC posts. Both will only be sophomores, so neither is super experienced, but Taylor played a lot at Ole Miss, so she is SEC-tested. Taylor actually outplayed McCowan in one of their head-to-head contests, so she should be ready to go.
Their bigger issue is PG. Adding Minyon Moore, Taja Cole, or Te'a Cooper, etc. would give them a big boost there. They should have good guards and wings with decent depth.

 

[Geesworld]

Maryland is an interesting one because they return almost everyone and have some top kids coming in but they just weren't a very good team this past season. The first time they played a team that had athleticism and cohesion was UCLA and they lost. Expecting them to jump from being a 2nd round exit to a top 4 squad is a bit extreme IMO. If that does happen, look for big strides from Shakira Austin.

2018 was a rough year for Maryland. Transfers, Grads, Injuries all played their part.

Maryland 2018 recruiting class along with key returners ( Charles, Jones, Miskell, Austin) made a big turn around this season. They have another good class coming in that I think will help add depth. Freshman Diamond Miller could help right away. They did have a fairly easy schedule last year and they did struggle against Iowa and UCLA. However They did run thru South Carolina who was athletic. Year of experince should help them.

 

[Geesworld]

Mississippi didn't even make the tournament this season...they have a good coach though, seems like she will turn the program around.

Sorry I meant Miss St.

 

[Geesworld]

MD doesn’t do itself any favors when it comes to scheduling. They play in the weakest of the P5 conferences, and that’s not going to change next season, and Brenda continues to play cupcakes and softballs OOC. This past season, the only perennial Top-10 team on their OOC schedule was SC, and the Gamecocks were not nearly as strong as last year.

So they get to the 2nd round of the Big Dance, Sweet 16, or whatever and face a tough, motivated team and they get upset, as they did in each of the past 3 years to OR, NC St and UCLA respectfully.

Maryland's non-conference schedule was terrible, which I believe inflated some of there value. But I think Frese, needed a soft schedule to get her team some time to mesh and create an identity. Moving forward I think she and the team has a better understanding. With so much talent leaving the perennial favorites, teams on the fringe have much stronger chances.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

If ND can make the Elite 8 next season. I’d consider that a really successful season.

Exactly. She lost all of her starters, and ND rarely played anyone off the bench for meaningful minutes. One chance in five.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

In an unusual occurrence, the top 8 seeds all made the Elite 8 this year. While every one of those teams loses key players, some have a much better chance to return to the Elite 8 and beyond next season. I’ve ranked each team’s chances from 8 to 1 (worst to best) along with a percentage guesstimate for each team to return to the Elite 8 next season. Generally, I only evaluated returning players, not freshmen or transfers, even though freshmen and transfers will play a role for many of these teams.

8. Iowa (0%) – The Hawkeyes had a wonderful season behind Naismith Award winner Megan Gustafson, who carried Iowa for much of the season including big wins over MD and MO down the stretch. The Hawkeyes not only lose Gustafson, but also starting pg Tania Davis as well as starting forward Hannah Stewart. Iowa is unlikely to make it back to the Elite 8 next year, let alone compete for a Big10 title.

7. MS ST (10%) – Vic has done a great job at MS St. With Bibby back next year, along with some solid returning players, the Bulldogs will continue to be competitive. But you can’t teach size, and MS ST has no one to replace McGowan. Add in the loss of starters Anriel Howard, Jazzmun Holmes and Jordan Danberry and the Bulldogs will clearly be in rebuilding mode.

6. ND (30%) – ND lost every single starter from one of their greatest teams ever, and they really didn’t play their bench very much in big games. But the Irish have some highly recruited players, including size on the bench. MM will have them playing their best come tournament time, so it’s not impossible that ND makes it back to the Elite 8 next year.

5. Louisville (30%) – The Cardinals lost their three best offensive threats in Carter, Fuehring and AA Asia Durr. I’m not sure where the points will come from next year, but they do have some solid defensive players, size and rebounding, and Walz is a very capable coach. I rank them just ahead of ND because they have more experience returning.

4. Stanford (50%) - Stanford loses their best player in forward Alanna Smith. They also lose key reserve Shannon Coffee and probably guard Marta Sneizak who was out most of the year with an injury. But Stanford has some talented guards/wings returning, and if any team should get a boost from their freshmen it would be Stanford. Outside of the guy in Storrs, CT, no other coach does a better job of having her team ready to play in March.

3. UConn (65%) - UConn is losing 2 incredible senior AA’s, after losing 3 top-10 draft picks last year, after losing 3 AA’s the prior year. You get the picture? UConn will have the best starting four East of Eugene, OR next year. In addition, Christyn Williams should be a 1st team AA. The Huskies absolutely need to find a 5th starter and hopefully a capable reserve or two. But UConn has Geno and they don’t. That should be enough.

2. Baylor (75%) - Yes, you can’t teach size, and Brown will be missed in Waco. But the Lady Bears dodged a bullet with Cox, and she will be the best post player in the country next year. Baylor has a lot of talent and depth coming back including star players Landrum, Richards and Smith. The Lady Bear’s success may come down to how well they replace converted pg Chloe Jackson who was tremendous in their championship run this season.

1. Oregon (90%) – When Sabrina Ionescu announced she was returning to Oregon for her senior season, the Ducks instantly became the odds-on favorite to win it all next year. In addition, Oregon loses only one player, guard Maite Cazorla, and returns several talented players from injuries. It could be a great year for Kelly Graves and the Oregon Ducks.

Baylor- 100%. They had a bench that on its own is Top 5. Then they have amazing recruits. 100%

And Maryland is 90%. They have awesome talent coming back, and even as awesome talent coming in. The only wild card is their coach. She just doesn't seem to have what it takes to retain, develop, motivate and coach her talent on through to ultimate victory.

Stanford is way better than just a coin toss. They return everyone of note except their center. And they're filling up on top talent. They're making it back. No matter what!

Connecticut? If they make it to the Elite Eight, it will have been Coach Geno who leads them through. We just don't have the front court. Keep in mind how we were outrebounded massively by Baylor earlier this year, then outrebounded by Louisville and ND? And now we're without 6'2" Napheesa Collier and 6'3" Katie Lou Samuelson. And all we've got in terms of dependable front court is a rising sophomore who is highly foul-prone.

I'd give us one chance in five of keeping that streak alive. We have to be honest...

 

[DeeHusky]

Baylor- 100%. They had a bench that on its own is Top 5. Then they have amazing recruits. 100%

And Maryland is 90%. They have awesome talent coming back, and even as awesome talent coming in. The only wild card is their coach. She just doesn't seem to have what it takes to retain, develop, motivate and coach her talent on through to ultimate victory.

Stanford is way better than just a coin toss. They return everyone of note except their center. And they're filling up on top talent. They're making it back. No matter what!

Connecticut? If they make it to the Elite Eight, it will have been Coach Geno who leads them through. We just don't have the front court. Keep in mind how we were outrebounded massively by Baylor earlier this year, then outrebounded by Louisville and ND? And now we're without 6'2" Napheesa Collier and 6'3" Katie Lou Samuelson. And all we've got in terms of dependable front court is a rising sophomore who is highly foul-prone.

I'd give us one chance in five of keeping that streak alive. We have to be honest...

I'd give us one chance in five if there were 8 better teams. We don't have much in the post and neither do all the other teams at least not 8 of them.

 

[DefenseBB]

Mississippi, ND, Louisville will not make elite 8

Pac 12 Should field at least three Elite 8 teams and it will be dog fight for #1 seed in the west. Agree 100% Oregon, Stanford, Oregon St locks
ACC Dominance will take a hit. Louisville and ND will start slow but will be in the mix come late season. 2 to 3 seed at best for them. Not sure I agree on this as FSU, Miami, NC St and even VPI will be good and I won’t sleep on Syracuse either. As Noted MM always finds a way even if I think her team is inexperienced. I would love to see a colossal fail but I know better.
Big 10 Takes a big hit with Iowa falling back to the pack. Maryland should have a cake walk and should be a favorite for Final Four. Rutgers should make huge jump. Maryland, on paper is awesome but as noted Brenda needs to battle test this talented group as the Big10 schedule is pathetic
Big 12 Texas should make huge jump and give Baylor a dog fight. Completely disagree with Texas. With Holly gone, Karen is Queen Bee of underachievement and underdevelopment. And just like Holly, her offense is pathetic. Baylor in a cakewalk.
SEC This conference is full of talent but top team the top teams are in shambles or losing key pieces. Pick'em Conference. Not in agreement that the SEC is full of talent. Texas AM, MSU and a big gap with a bunch of young players at USC and Tenn.

Top 4
Oregon -Returning 4 starters, If they find someone to take pressure off Ionescu they will be hard to beat. Yes
Oregon St -Two 6'7/6'8 Post player plus they return everybody. No, not everybody and it will be different when he is EXPECTED to win vs. being the hunter.
Baylor -Lauren Cox mixed with a bunch of athletic lengthy players should be a favorite again. Need a PG and add some perimeter shooting. Yes
Maryland -Returning a lot of promising players and also have great Recruiting class. Talented enough to be here but it still is Brenda coaching and a cupcake schedule, so no.

Last Four
Texas A&M -Should be top four team. Just not sure who they are as a team. Profs to @biobioprof as this is a sleeper team to win the SEC and could make a Final Four run-gave ND all it could handle.
UCONN -There is a lot of things that have to happen for them to creep into the Top 4 But they have enough talent to place in the Elite 8. Geno’s teams always find a way to score. With Liv staying out of foul trouble in the middle and the step up of Coombs and Aubrey Griffin, they could make it back
Stanford -Young talent mixed with current talent will keep them in the hunt. Tara teams usually start slow and pick up as the year moves on. Should be much of the same next year. I think this team has the talent to get to the FF, winning it all is a different issue as she hasn’t won since 1992.
Last spot will be ACC team.

I appreciate the full effort by @Geesworld here, however I am not convinced about some of the assertions as I note in the body below

 

[oldude]

I'd give us one chance in five if there were 8 better teams. We don't have much in the post and neither do all the other teams at least not 8 of them.

So the 6’5” freshman and one time #1 player in her HS glass, who Geno has been praising throughout the last month of the season, you don’t consider to be much of a post player?