How dominant will UCONN be in 2015-16?

[BroadwayVa]

Do you happen to have the link to NYT article. I remember reading things about the team lacking leadership but not this psychological angle. Or is that the same thing?

My take on the Stanford loss started one game earlier---I thought KML and some others on the team were : 1. had a flu like malady or 2. Partied too hardy in Calif or 3. were exhausted from all the above. Their legs didn't respond to the Stanford guards.
About this coming year--Gabby will come aboard with better 3 ball, foul shooting, defense Kia will arrive with more experience at a higher level and more confidence (she will be great) Butler will fill the role vacated by Steff Dolson but with more mobility. Tuck will be rested and healthy (not much more needed here) Stewie will be Stewie and return her 3 shooting with accuracy Saniya will arrive with confidence and accurate 3 shooting, along with her patented drive (this is true of Ekmark), Collier, Boykin, KLS will hit the floor running and running and running (Marines will see to that)--I expect great things (except defense) from the three new Frosh. Will Uconn be undefeated??? Part of me says I hope not---but I hate to lose. No one remembers the runner up!! I am of the school that say: While any loss will teach you something about yourself---losing stinks.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Largely agree Mike, only Natalie doesn't need to be a beast, just competent. Box out, rebound, screen and finish on the pick and roll and put backs and we'll win number 11.

Yes --even Geno shall miss Kiah Stokes in games against bigs or fast guard.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Geno said these same things in his SNY Geno Show, but somewhat contradicted it by laying on some they don't want to do the skill/little things in practice. I checked the a couple of close ones, undefeated (largely on DT's assessment of Stewie's senior year), though I felt like saying 1-2 losses because of the loss of KML's steadiness. K did what DT and Maya did - hit early and settled the team. Early in the year if we get out of the blocks slow we might lift another team up and get rattled - I know we have four super starters, but it is hard to imagine doing the undefeated, steam roller bit for a fourth in a row. Looking forward to the ride though.

When a coach, and we've heard something like this from Coach P, says their team won't do or won't listen or won't perform then I cringe--that's the job of the coach to get their attention early and often and let them know when, how and where and who and what they MUST do. Who's running the institution anyway?? Most Teenagers would rather "chill" than work even Adam and Eve had that problem with kids.

 

[CocoHusky]

My take on the Stanford loss started one game earlier---I thought KML and some others on the team were : 1. had a flu like malady or 2. Partied too hardy in Calif or 3. were exhausted from all the above. Their legs didn't respond to the Stanford guards.

You may be on to something there. The partying part I'd have a hard time believing but my daughters played in the West Coast Jamboree a couple of years and no matter how much warning or timing there was always a letdown game just from having to go from east coast to west coast. The coaches finally gave up and took us out of the Diamond bracket anticipating a letdown and hoping it would come against a lesser team.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

When a coach, and we've heard something like this from Coach P, says their team won't do or won't listen or won't perform then I cringe--that's the job of the coach to get their attention early and often and let them know when, how and where and who and what they MUST do. Who's running the institution anyway?? Most Teenagers would rather "chill" than work even Adam and Eve had that problem with kids.

So it was Geno's fault that this group did not have the drive early on? Is that it Nurse Ratchet? BTW Geno never said Boo 'til that little OT loss was way behind in the rear view mirror. Coach P is singing that song by half time. Ask this team if it was Geno's fault, then get back to me.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Don't know why most seem to over looking Ohio State as a team that could give UConn problems next year. As of today, I have UConn winning the game, but also see OSU has the talent to beat UConn. Kelsey Mitchell is a dynamic player capable of putting up huge numbers and she has talent surrounding her. Look out for OSU next year. IMHO they're equivalent to South Carolina and I like Kelsey Mitchell over Tiffany Mitchell as a scorer.

I actually think that maybe one of the reasons that people overlook Ohio State is because for a lot of years there was always the "watch out for Ohio State" note out there and I thought they always underachieved. I know that things sometimes change and they do have a new coach and maybe a new philosophy and new recruits but I'm still inclined to think that the defensive side of UConn is what makes all the difference and teams not being exposed to the Huskies have virtually no chance to beat the Huskies. I don't think the quality of their talent is anywhere close to that of UConn and if anything, our talent level is rising. Stanford this past year scored a massive amount of points against UConn that was attributable to implementing two new starters, having two key players foul out toward the end of regulation and not having had the chance to develop the cohesiveness that makes this defense such a monster. Since the only starter UConn loses this year is KML who was easily the weakest link (though she maximized her abilities) I can't see the Huskies being anywhere near as vulnerable as they were playing Stanford in a road game in their second game of the season. Ohio State last year was nowhere to be found at the end of the season and what is there to suggest that this team will vault up to be a dangerous, dangerous team. One pretty special player???? I think the Huskies have numerous SPECIAL PLAYERS and they have three of the top 12 players in high school coming to Storrs in the fall. Since Maryland is bringing back most of their lineup and they owned the Big Ten or whatever they call their conference now, why would we be sweating Ohio State? I think we have more than a few people on this board that continue trying to scare us with tales of the big bad wolf and though I'm not suggesting we play down to anyone, I think we know pretty definitively that Geno doesn't allow any of his teams to OVERLOOK anyone.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Chris, UConn was second in the nation in rebound margin this past year. Butler's not likely to get more minutes than Stokes did; I don't see a big rebound uptick.

Good stat on the rebound margin. Since you don't think Butler will get more minutes than Stokes--who will start? One of the three frosh with high level potential? Remember, potential means you have not done anything yet (at collegiate level.) Gabby will be the best 6th man in the nation. IMHO, Butler is a proven commodity with the double-double production as a freshman in the BE. She had one full year of learning the system and I am sure that Geno had a clear picture of what he was developing for next year. Bulter had little to no coaching at Georgetown. (have you read about the crazy situation that year) Butler took over that team and kicked some butt. She had over 20 rebounds multiple times. Gino and Stokes both stated Bulter was impressive and she still has 6 months to develop the skills that Geno wants for next year. I am not a betting man unless I know it is almost a sure thing. I am betting on Butler as the starter with Gabby off the bench first.

 

[Bgillon]

Chris, UConn was second in the nation in rebound margin this past year. Butler's not likely to get more minutes than Stokes did; I don't see a big rebound uptick.

Butler will be a starter and get many more minutes than Stokes did. Butler is a two way player where Stokes was not.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Butler will be a starter and get many more minutes than Stokes did. Butler is a two way player where Stokes was not.

There are 11 scholarship players. Stewart, Tuck, Jefferson, and Nurse are likely to get 100+ minutes between them which will leave under 100 minutes for the other 7 players, at least 50 of which should go to KLS, Collier, and Williams. So, maybe 40 minutes for Chong, Butler, Ekmark, and Boykin combined. Unless the latter two simply don't play, I don't see more minutes for Butler than the 17 per game Stokes got as a senior.

I also think it's yet to be seen how good an offensive player Butler is.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Since you don't think Butler will get more minutes than Stokes--who will start?

No idea. Hard for me to believe KLS will start given her defensive issues coming in, and I think Geno really likes Williams' energy off the bench. Right now I'm guessing Butler and then Collier as the two most likely. Whoever it is won't be getting starter's minutes barring injuries.

IMHO, Butler is a proven commodity with the double-double production as a freshman in the BE. She had one full year of learning the system and I am sure that Geno had a clear picture of what he was developing for next year.

The year of development may turn out to be a big factor. That said, you have to remember that her numbers were put up in 36 minutes a game. I expect her to get about half that next year due to the plethora of talented players on the roster. I still have memories of so many who thought Stokes would average a double-double this year with heavy minutes, and neither happened.

 

[Aluminny69]

There are actually several teams that have a good chance to go undefeated, at least until the Final Four. Baylor, Tenn., and Maryland are the first that come to mind. So, several teams will seem dominant until they play UConn. And the SC game should prove to be competitive.

 

[Bgillon]

Sluconn, the difference is Butler DID it her freshman year. Your analogy would better fit the projection of Chong's growth.

 

[nd2tty]

There are actually several teams that have a good chance to go undefeated, at least until the Final Four. Baylor, Tenn., and Maryland are the first that come to mind. So, several teams will seem dominant until they play UConn. And the SC game should prove to be competitive.

Wow. I would be very surprised if Baylor, Tennessee, or Maryland made it the NCAA tournament undefeated.

Baylor probably has the best chance because their OOC schedule is the weakest next year (they pick up their OCC difficulty starting 2016-2017), but they still have to play at Texas and at Oklahoma.

Maryland has Notre Dame at home, James Madison on the road, and in the Big Ten, a dangerous Ohio State team on the road in Columbus. Don’t see them beating ND to be honest.

Tennessee has a very tough SEC schedule, has to play South Carolina (albeit at home), and has Oregon State in Corvallis, Rutgers at home, and presumably Texas, (home), Stanford (road), and Notre Dame (road) (unless they rotate out of those three series starting in 2015-2016). Tennessee will be an improved team next year, but if they start conference play undefeated, I would be shocked. And if they do, beating Oregon State, Texas, Stanford, and Notre Dame en route, they might even have an argument for being ranked #1 (though a three-time defending NC, undefeated UConn should be safe at #1), and the SEC should watch out.

 

[connboy77]

There are actually several teams that have a good chance to go undefeated, at least until the Final Four. Baylor, Tenn., and Maryland are the first that come to mind. So, several teams will seem dominant until they play UConn. And the SC game should prove to be competitive.

Do not agree; there isn't anyway that Tennessee is beating USC twice and I seriously doubt that they will beat Notre Dame at ND. As for Maryland, they also have to play ND which they probably won't beat.

 

[Tonyc]

Let me bring up a couple of points. How will any team defend UConn and slow them down and can those teams outscore UConn? No. UConn has the NPOY Tuck and Mojeff 1st team AAs. Gabby can score,defend,run the floor, play defense and rebound. Now lets get to the freshman. The top players in their class. Katie Lou fantastic shooter and in this line up will get some good looks at 6'3. Collier although not a 3 pt shooter is a scorer, and a lock down defender. Butler has proven what she can do.

There are alot of talented teams in WCBB in the up coming season. Baylor USF Tenn SC and Florida St. They have the talent but not the team. We saw what happened the past couple of seasons with talented teams when they faced UConn. This years version of UConn is better then last seasons NC squad. Yeah UConn brings back alot of players too.

It still remains to be seen if a team can come within double digits of UConn.

Another point that Ive been thinking about. Texas Baylor and TAM all have alot of bigs. IMO no room for Holmes or Cox. Maybe thats why Geno is pursuing them so hard. Hey theres only 1 number 1. UConn is in position to win 5-6 more NCs and no other team can claim that without mentioning "IF". Uconn doesnt have any "IF's"

 

[PhillyCoach]

No idea. Hard for me to believe KLS will start given her defensive issues coming in, and I think Geno really likes Williams' energy off the bench. Right now I'm guessing Butler and then Collier as the two most likely. Whoever it is won't be getting starter's minutes barring injuries.



The year of development may turn out to be a big factor. That said, you have to remember that her numbers were put up in 36 minutes a game. I expect her to get about half that next year due to the plethora of talented players on the roster. I still have memories of so many who thought Stokes would average a double-double this year with heavy minutes, and neither happened.

But Slu, Why would anyone think Stokes would average a double-double when she had a three year history of no offense. She also admitted her role was rebounds and blocks. Moreover, she never had the desire or yearning to score when she was on the court. You are So right that Butler played 36 minutes, but with Georgetown players and suspect coaching. We don't have to speculate on her scoring ability--she has done it. She also had many games of big number rebounds that were eye opening. If Butler only gets 17 minutes a game then UConn will be very dominating because Geno will have confidence in one or two others who are producing. This year in crunch time--Stokes was the only player getting significant minutes off the bench.
Freshman will be freshman--I am really looking forward to what Butler will do next year.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Let me bring up a couple of points. How will any team defend UConn and slow them down and can those teams outscore UConn? No. UConn has the NPOY Tuck and Mojeff 1st team AAs. Gabby can score,defend,run the floor, play defense and rebound. Now lets get to the freshman. The top players in their class. Katie Lou fantastic shooter and in this line up will get some good looks at 6'3. Collier although not a 3 pt shooter is a scorer, and a lock down defender. Butler has proven what she can do.

There are alot of talented teams in WCBB in the up coming season. Baylor USF Tenn SC and Florida St. They have the talent but not the team. We saw what happened the past couple of seasons with talented teams when they faced UConn. This years version of UConn is better then last seasons NC squad. Yeah UConn brings back alot of players too.

It still remains to be seen if a team can come within double digits of UConn.

Another point that Ive been thinking about. Texas Baylor and TAM all have alot of bigs. IMO no room for Holmes or Cox. Maybe thats why Geno is pursuing them so hard. Hey theres only 1 number 1. UConn is in position to win 5-6 more NCs and no other team can claim that without mentioning "IF". Uconn doesnt have any "IF's"

Tonyc - Great post--best line that sums it up quickly and emphatically- "there are many teams with talent, but not the team (concept)." Baylor, Tennessee, SC, and a few others (Ohio State) have high level talent-- but the team concept is lacking. I think most on BY can agree that a vital element of a NC is teamwork. IMHO that is why ND hangs tuff every year. Reimer improved, but was not great. Mabrey was one dimensional, but knew her role. Cable was a hustle player, but not nearly as skilled. The played good team ball.
Dayton and Iowa were perfect examples of TEAMs. Some talent, but they fit together nicely. UConn, as of now, is the only school that has the talent and the team concept working seamlessly.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Wow. I would be very surprised if Baylor, Tennessee, or Maryland made it the NCAA tournament undefeated.

Baylor probably has the best chance because their OOC schedule is the weakest next year (they pick up their OCC difficulty starting 2016-2017), but they still have to play at Texas and at Oklahoma.

Maryland has Notre Dame at home, James Madison on the road, and in the Big Ten, a dangerous Ohio State team on the road in Columbus. Don’t see them beating ND to be honest.

Tennessee has a very tough SEC schedule, has to play South Carolina (albeit at home), and has Oregon State in Corvallis, Rutgers at home, and presumably Texas, (home), Stanford (road), and Notre Dame (road) (unless they rotate out of those three series starting in 2015-2016). Tennessee will be an improved team next year, but if they start conference play undefeated, I would be shocked. And if they do, beating Oregon State, Texas, Stanford, and Notre Dame en route, they might even have an argument for being ranked #1 (though a three-time defending NC, undefeated UConn should be safe at #1), and the SEC should watch out.

nd2tty-I agree that Baylor has the best chance to go undefeated. If they did UConn shouldn't be too worried. If Maryland goes undefeated (James Madison doesn't concern me), UConn should be a little worried. If Tennessee goes undefeated, then they have gelled into a formidable team and UConn should be concerned and ready for a heck of a game if they meet in the FF.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Sluconn, the difference is Butler DID it her freshman year. Your analogy would better fit the projection of Chong's growth.

In 36 minutes per game on a below-average team. These will be different situations for her. Not saying she isn't or won't be good, but I doubt her minutes or stats are really going to reflect it right away.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

But Slu, Why would anyone think Stokes would average a double-double when she had a three year history of no offense.

I think they figured she had the talent and as a senior and with the C spot open she'd play 30 minutes and score more. You have to remember that Butler was likely the #2 option at Georgetown. She won't be the #2 option at UConn no matter who is on the floor with her.

It's quite possible Butler will be a real factor given 17 minutes. I just don't expect her to get more than that. And to me that's fine. Stokes was barely used towards the end of this season and UConn did okay. If Butler develops into an impact player over the next couples years it'll be a bonus. I think it's more likely she'll be a nice cog this upcoming year rather than an impact player, but we'll see.

 

[Bgillon]

In 36 minutes per game on a below-average team. These will be different situations for her. Not saying she isn't or won't be good, but I doubt her minutes or stats are really going to reflect it right away.

You keep changing your rationale to justify your point about Butler. You mentioned all the people who projected Stokes offensive growth and minutes after 3 years of mediocre output and minutes as a warning they are repeating that same mistake projecting Butler's performance. Now it is the mediocre Big East competition and major minutes that allowed Butler to excel. It seems like a lot of heavy lifting on your part!

 

[Sluconn Husky]

You keep changing your rationale to justify your point about Butler. You mentioned all the people who projected Stokes offensive growth and minutes after 3 years of mediocre output and minutes as a warning they are repeating that same mistake projecting Butler's performance. Now it is the mediocre Big East competition and major minutes that allowed Butler to excel. It seems like a lot of heavy lifting on your part!

Haven't changed anything. I said people were projecting Stokes to take off her senior year with added minutes. That's one point. A second is that Butler will never see close to 36 minutes/gm no matter how long she's at UConn. Stewart only gets 27 a game.

And yes, you can find players who have nice stats playing lots of minutes against poor competition. They may be good, they may not be. I would suggest Stokes may have averaged 8-10 points and 10-12 boards if she played 36 minutes at Georgetown. Course, Stokes was a good player, but she also didn't put up those numbers at UConn.

 

[Geno-ista]

After Stewie leaves - Notre Dame becomes a team to watch out a lot for. It depends on Turner, though early indications is that she'll be beast. In a fantasy matchup possible she is possibly (don't shoot me. I emphasize the word possibly) too-- a combination of tall/long for Tuck (if she comes back which she may very well do) and Collier. Too quick vs Butler.

Boykin would have possibly legit size and athleticism but right now I'm not sure how many minutes she is going to see her 1sttwo years-- especially if Morgan stays.

Potentially ND would have the best player on the court in Turner - In her junior year and possibly the best guard on the court not to mention she's a pg - in which UCONN would be working on either Chong or Nurse - and the frosh Dangerfield. The 1st are unknown pg's and to rely on a frosh pg help running your offense - leading your team to title vs a senior terrific pg -- it's a big question for that specific year.

HH- I was just going to RSVP to Bill in Georgia also- when we lose Stewie & Messiah, that is going to be an enormous loss!!! Much more difficult to replace two legitimate game changing superstars. Both could be #1 picks. That will be much more difficult to overcome compared to last year and this year!

 

[Bgillon]

Haven't changed anything. I said people were projecting Stokes to take off her senior year with added minutes. That's one point. A second is that Butler will never see close to 36 minutes/gm no matter how long she's at UConn. Stewart only gets 27 a game.

And yes, you can find players who have nice stats playing lots of minutes against poor competition. They may be good, they may not be. I would suggest Stokes may have averaged 8-10 points and 10-12 boards if she played 36 minutes at Georgetown. Course, Stokes was a good player, but she also didn't put up those numbers at UConn.

I dare say the Big East was better competition than the AAC! If the Big East was poor competition what is the word for the AAC?

 

[PhillyCoach]

I think they figured she had the talent and as a senior and with the C spot open she'd play 30 minutes and score more. You have to remember that Butler was likely the #2 option at Georgetown. She won't be the #2 option at UConn no matter who is on the floor with her.

It's quite possible Butler will be a real factor given 17 minutes. I just don't expect her to get more than that. And to me that's fine. Stokes was barely used towards the end of this season and UConn did okay. If Butler develops into an impact player over the next couples years it'll be a bonus. I think it's more likely she'll be a nice cog this upcoming year rather than an impact player, but we'll see.

OK BY posters--Slu has set the bar at 17 minutes for Butler. I am taking the OVER. Next, I have to admit I never saw Butler play. Slu said she was probably the #2 option. Since Butler had so many rebounds I would venture she had lots of put-backs. If someone has seen her play please fill us in. How many assists did the guards have on Georgetown? I appreciate any help to bring me up to snuff.

 

[rvwsleep]

Georgetown 2013-2014

mpg ppg assists pg rebs pg fg%
C) Butler 36.2 13.8 1.9 13.3 48.8
G) McCormick 27.1 8.5 1.8 2.4 32.8
http://www.wbbstate.com/img/spacer.gif
http://www.wbbstate.com/img/spacer.gif
F) White 32.4 15.4 2.2 9.0 49.2
G) Powell 30.2 5.7 3.2 3.6 38.3
F) Woodward 31.7 10.2 2.5 4.3 37.8

I am taking the over for Butler also but not by much. Maybe 20 mpg. I have to think the Williams will get more pt and NC, DB and KLS have to play also.
Stokes played 17.9 mpg and KML 29.3.
47 minutes to be divided among Butler, NC, KLS and Boykin. And that's with the minutes staying the same for the starters and subs Williams, Chong and Ekmark.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Georgetown 2013-2014

mpg ppg assists pg rebs pg fg%
C) Butler 36.2 13.8 1.9 13.3 48.8
G) McCormick 27.1 8.5 1.8 2.4 32.8
http://www.wbbstate.com/img/spacer.
http://www.wbbstate.com/img/spacer.
F) White 32.4 15.4 2.2 9.0 49.2
G) Powell 30.2 5.7 3.2 3.6 38.3
F) Woodward 31.7 10.2 2.5 4.3 37.8

I am taking the over for Butler also but not by much. Maybe 20 mpg. I have to think the Williams will get more pt and NC, DB and KLS have to play also.
Stokes played 17.9 mpg and KML 29.3.
47 minutes to be divided among Butler, NC, KLS and Boykin. And that's with the minutes staying the same for the starters and subs Williams, Chong and Ekmark.

Thank you Mr. Sleep --Guards only had 5 assists - 12 total. Sounds like a lot of individual work and Butler did not get much help

 

[Gus Mahler]

OK BY posters--Slu has set the bar at 17 minutes for Butler. I am taking the OVER. Next, I have to admit I never saw Butler play. Slu said she was probably the #2 option. Since Butler had so many rebounds I would venture she had lots of put-backs. If someone has seen her play please fill us in. How many assists did the guards have on Georgetown? I appreciate any help to bring me up to snuff.

Put me down for the OVER, too.

 

[hoophuskee]

HH- I was just going to RSVP to Bill in Georgia also- when we lose Stewie & Messiah, that is going to be an enormous loss!!! Much more difficult to replace two legitimate game changing superstars. Both could be #1 picks. That will be much more difficult to overcome compared to last year and this year!

I agree though I can't see anyone but Stewie being the number 1 pick though sure MoJeff can get NPOY. These two players are beasts.

One thing of many I'm looking forward to this year is if KLS can play the 2-guard. Which means she would play with say Collier -- while having any other 2 players of these in the lineup:
Stewie Tuck, Butler, Gabbie and Boykin.

There are so many lineups I can't wait to see this year -- watching maybe a Gabby, Collier and KLS lineup.

Or a Butler, Stewie, KLS, Ekmark, MoJeff lineup. Potentially 4 fabulous outside shooters and one real big post. -- Just sayin would be fun to watch-- so many variations.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

47 minutes to be divided among Butler, NC, KLS and Boykin. And that's with the minutes staying the same for the starters and subs Williams, Chong and Ekmark.

This is what we call a minutes dilemma.