How dominant will UCONN be in 2015-16?

[jcoton56]

Barring injury to MoJeff, UConn not only wins, but controls every game.

 

[connboy77]

Very interesting that you don't think Baylor will have the size inside to compete with UCONN when Baylor is loaded with post players next year: Beatrice Mompremier at 6-4, Kalani Brown at 6-5, Kristiuna Higgins at 6-5, Justis Szczepanski-Beavers at 6-3 and Kadijah Cave at a long 6-2. If anything, Baylor has a logjam in the post position.

If UCONN were to play at Baylor I think the game would be much closer than you think.

I agree with you! Baylor is one of the few teams in the country that plays UCONN very tough. The last few games they have played against each other have been very close. You are absolutely right, Baylor will have more size next year then most of the teams UCONN will play.

 

[HuskyNan]

Call me crazy, but I think South Florida in Tampa could be pretty competitive for 30+ mins: 10-15 MOV. They lost Tamara Taylor to graduation, but return everyone else: Williams, Jenkins, and Stringfield as seniors. They could get dominated inside, but if they are hitting mid-range shots, they can score with UCONN for a while.

This month Jose Fernandez signed two players, one is a 6' guard who plays for the Latvian Senior National Team. USF lost only one player who saw significant playing time. Seniors Courtney Williams, the All American, and Alisia Jenkins will return. Could be an interesting year for the Bulls. 2015-2016 USF roster

 

[DobbsRover2]

Very interesting that you don't think Baylor will have the size inside to compete with UCONN when Baylor is loaded with post players next year: Beatrice Mompremier at 6-4, Kalani Brown at 6-5, Kristiuna Higgins at 6-5, Justis Szczepanski-Beavers at 6-3 and Kadijah Cave at a long 6-2. If anything, Baylor has a logjam in the post position.

If UCONN were to play at Baylor I think the game would be much closer than you think.

What? You don't even mention Baylor's dominant post player and rebounder who has to be at least 6 inches over that officially reported 5'11" height to be getting all her boards.

Thing is though, of the big players you mention, only Cave averaged more than 10 minutes ppg for the Bears last year, and even with her it was only 16. The two biggest players are incoming freshmen, and it remains to be seen how well everyone will be worked in and how big Baylor will really be. Probably will be a bigger team and Mompremier and Brown will see extended chunks of time for the Bears this year, but if the brunt of the height is on the bench averaging 7 mpg, it doesn't make you a big team.

 

[freekimchee]

Baylor will be a tough win on neutral court. I've got them ranked preseason #2 as well. Anyway, with a year of getting acclimated to Geno's system, I have a feeling that a stronger and hungrier Natalie Butler will be a nightmare to opposing teams. But, I think the key for the season will be how KLS' outside shooting translates to the college game. If she can contribute like KML did her freshman year, an undefeated season with no games closer than ten points is very much a possibility. KML will be a HUGE loss, even when her shot was off she was always a threat and opened things up for everyone else...

 

[bballnut90]

Very interesting that you don't think Baylor will have the size inside to compete with UCONN when Baylor is loaded with post players next year: Beatrice Mompremier at 6-4, Kalani Brown at 6-5, Kristiuna Higgins at 6-5, Justis Szczepanski-Beavers at 6-3 and Kadijah Cave at a long 6-2. If anything, Baylor has a logjam in the post position.

If UCONN were to play at Baylor I think the game would be much closer than you think.

Going into 2016-17, Baylor is my #2 team in the country. I think by season's end it will be Notre Dame again, but Baylor will be very very good next year. Baylor has a lot of size, but with the addition of Alexis Jones (which shores up any backcourt issues), Baylor will not be able to match UCONN's projected frontline of Tuck, Stewart and Butler unless they bench Wright and Prince next year.

I'm guessing Baylor's lineup next year will be:
PG-Johnson (5-8)
SG-Jones (5-9)
SF-Wright (5-9)
PF-Davis (5-11)
C-Cave (6-2)

Reserves who see time in meaningful games:
1st off-Wallace (5-11)
2nd off-Prince (6-1)
3rd off-Brown (6-5)

I don't see Mompremier/Higgins/SB earning minutes in big games this year, even if they do provide additional depth in the post.

The only way I see Baylor being able to match up defensively is if they start Brown in the post alongside Cave and have Davis at the 3 spot. Then it will be Brown vs. Butler, Cave guarding Stewart and Davis guarding Tuck. The problem with this lineup is that offensively, Baylor only has one perimeter threat in Alexis Jones. If they go to their standard starting 5, it will mean Wright and Davis have to match up with Stewart and Tuck which does not bode well for Baylor. Offensively, Baylor will be great with this lineup, having two solid inside threats, 2 solid outside threats and multiple guards who can get in the lane and score, but either way the advantage will still be to Connecticut.

 

[Gus Mahler]

Baylor may very well be a superb team next year, but I don't seeing it being because of their freshmen bigs. To use another poster's term, Brown is a "plodder." Mompremier appears to be a promising prospect, but she's skinny and will need time to develop. UCONN's frontcourt would cause Baylor a lot of problems.

 

[easttexastrash]

Going into 2016-17, Baylor is my #2 team in the country. I think by season's end it will be Notre Dame again, but Baylor will be very very good next year. Baylor has a lot of size, but with the addition of Alexis Jones (which shores up any backcourt issues), Baylor will not be able to match UCONN's projected frontline of Tuck, Stewart and Butler unless they bench Wright and Prince next year.

I'm guessing Baylor's lineup next year will be:
PG-Johnson (5-8)
SG-Jones (5-9)
SF-Wright (5-9)
PF-Davis (5-11)
C-Cave (6-2)

Reserves who see time in meaningful games:
1st off-Wallace (5-11)
2nd off-Prince (6-1)
3rd off-Brown (6-5)

I don't see Mompremier/Higgins/SB earning minutes in big games this year, even if they do provide additional depth in the post.

The only way I see Baylor being able to match up defensively is if they start Brown in the post alongside Cave and have Davis at the 3 spot. Then it will be Brown vs. Butler, Cave guarding Stewart and Davis guarding Tuck. The problem with this lineup is that offensively, Baylor only has one perimeter threat in Alexis Jones. If they go to their standard starting 5, it will mean Wright and Davis have to match up with Stewart and Tuck which does not bode well for Baylor. Offensively, Baylor will be great with this lineup, having two solid inside threats, 2 solid outside threats and multiple guards who can get in the lane and score, but either way the advantage will still be to Connecticut.

I think Mompremier will be a surprise to everyone and may very well start. She is a long 6-4 who runs the floor very well and can finish with either hand on either side of the basket. She is also a good shot blocker due to her length and athleticism. I expect to see big things out of her. From what I have seen of her she is a superb athlete.

However, if as predicted Baylor is weak in the post, that will bode well for landing Cox as she will not see the returning players as a threat to challenge for playing time. Or maybe even Holmes will see an opportunity to come to Baylor and immediately get a lot of playing time.

 

[CL82]

IMO, it all depends on Natalie Butler and the play she gives us in the post.

The rest of the Huskies can, jointly, lift their game to help compensate for KML's departure. But no one except (potentially) Natalie can give us what Stokes did against key matchups. Of course, Natalie may well give us a lot more scoring than Kiah.

Fingers crossed. As Natalie Butler goes, so goes next year's NC trophy. If she's a beast by March, there's no stopping us.

Largely agree Mike, only Natalie doesn't need to be a beast, just competent. Box out, rebound, screen and finish on the pick and roll and put backs and we'll win number 11.

 

[bballnut90]

I think Mompremier will be a surprise to everyone and may very well start. She is a long 6-4 who runs the floor very well and can finish with either hand on either side of the basket. She is also a good shot blocker due to her length and athleticism. I expect to see big things out of her. From what I have seen of her she is a superb athlete.

However, if as predicted Baylor is weak in the post, that will bode well for landing Cox as she will not see the returning players as a threat to challenge for playing time. Or maybe even Holmes will see an opportunity to come to Baylor and immediately get a lot of playing time.

Mompremier could be very good as freshman. I think only two will be in the rotation between her, Brown and Cave though. Unless they move Davis to a 3, which I don't see happening.

Baylor will be really really good if they land Cox and or Holmes. I think Cox or Holmes will get playing time regardless of how well Brown/Mompremier/Cave pan out. I do think Brown and Mompremier have ample upside considering their size and unique characteristics (Brown's physicality, Mompremier's athleticism), but will be surprised if they able to hold down the fort against a team like Connecticut in their first season. Give those two a year to get adjusted to college ball, add in Cox or Holmes, Nina Davis, Alexis Jones, Cave, Wallace, Prince, and Wright as juniors/seniors...and you might have the best team in the nation in 2016-17.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Do you happen to have the link to NYT article. I remember reading things about the team lacking leadership but not this psychological angle. Or is that the same thing?

My take on the Stanford loss started one game earlier---I thought KML and some others on the team were : 1. had a flu like malady or 2. Partied too hardy in Calif or 3. were exhausted from all the above. Their legs didn't respond to the Stanford guards.
About this coming year--Gabby will come aboard with better 3 ball, foul shooting, defense Kia will arrive with more experience at a higher level and more confidence (she will be great) Butler will fill the role vacated by Steff Dolson but with more mobility. Tuck will be rested and healthy (not much more needed here) Stewie will be Stewie and return her 3 shooting with accuracy Saniya will arrive with confidence and accurate 3 shooting, along with her patented drive (this is true of Ekmark), Collier, Boykin, KLS will hit the floor running and running and running (Marines will see to that)--I expect great things (except defense) from the three new Frosh. Will Uconn be undefeated??? Part of me says I hope not---but I hate to lose. No one remembers the runner up!! I am of the school that say: While any loss will teach you something about yourself---losing stinks.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Largely agree Mike, only Natalie doesn't need to be a beast, just competent. Box out, rebound, screen and finish on the pick and roll and put backs and we'll win number 11.

Yes --even Geno shall miss Kiah Stokes in games against bigs or fast guard.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Geno said these same things in his SNY Geno Show, but somewhat contradicted it by laying on some they don't want to do the skill/little things in practice. I checked the a couple of close ones, undefeated (largely on DT's assessment of Stewie's senior year), though I felt like saying 1-2 losses because of the loss of KML's steadiness. K did what DT and Maya did - hit early and settled the team. Early in the year if we get out of the blocks slow we might lift another team up and get rattled - I know we have four super starters, but it is hard to imagine doing the undefeated, steam roller bit for a fourth in a row. Looking forward to the ride though.

When a coach, and we've heard something like this from Coach P, says their team won't do or won't listen or won't perform then I cringe--that's the job of the coach to get their attention early and often and let them know when, how and where and who and what they MUST do. Who's running the institution anyway?? Most Teenagers would rather "chill" than work even Adam and Eve had that problem with kids.

 

[CocoHusky]

My take on the Stanford loss started one game earlier---I thought KML and some others on the team were : 1. had a flu like malady or 2. Partied too hardy in Calif or 3. were exhausted from all the above. Their legs didn't respond to the Stanford guards.

You may be on to something there. The partying part I'd have a hard time believing but my daughters played in the West Coast Jamboree a couple of years and no matter how much warning or timing there was always a letdown game just from having to go from east coast to west coast. The coaches finally gave up and took us out of the Diamond bracket anticipating a letdown and hoping it would come against a lesser team.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

When a coach, and we've heard something like this from Coach P, says their team won't do or won't listen or won't perform then I cringe--that's the job of the coach to get their attention early and often and let them know when, how and where and who and what they MUST do. Who's running the institution anyway?? Most Teenagers would rather "chill" than work even Adam and Eve had that problem with kids.

So it was Geno's fault that this group did not have the drive early on? Is that it Nurse Ratchet? BTW Geno never said Boo 'til that little OT loss was way behind in the rear view mirror. Coach P is singing that song by half time. Ask this team if it was Geno's fault, then get back to me.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Don't know why most seem to over looking Ohio State as a team that could give UConn problems next year. As of today, I have UConn winning the game, but also see OSU has the talent to beat UConn. Kelsey Mitchell is a dynamic player capable of putting up huge numbers and she has talent surrounding her. Look out for OSU next year. IMHO they're equivalent to South Carolina and I like Kelsey Mitchell over Tiffany Mitchell as a scorer.

I actually think that maybe one of the reasons that people overlook Ohio State is because for a lot of years there was always the "watch out for Ohio State" note out there and I thought they always underachieved. I know that things sometimes change and they do have a new coach and maybe a new philosophy and new recruits but I'm still inclined to think that the defensive side of UConn is what makes all the difference and teams not being exposed to the Huskies have virtually no chance to beat the Huskies. I don't think the quality of their talent is anywhere close to that of UConn and if anything, our talent level is rising. Stanford this past year scored a massive amount of points against UConn that was attributable to implementing two new starters, having two key players foul out toward the end of regulation and not having had the chance to develop the cohesiveness that makes this defense such a monster. Since the only starter UConn loses this year is KML who was easily the weakest link (though she maximized her abilities) I can't see the Huskies being anywhere near as vulnerable as they were playing Stanford in a road game in their second game of the season. Ohio State last year was nowhere to be found at the end of the season and what is there to suggest that this team will vault up to be a dangerous, dangerous team. One pretty special player???? I think the Huskies have numerous SPECIAL PLAYERS and they have three of the top 12 players in high school coming to Storrs in the fall. Since Maryland is bringing back most of their lineup and they owned the Big Ten or whatever they call their conference now, why would we be sweating Ohio State? I think we have more than a few people on this board that continue trying to scare us with tales of the big bad wolf and though I'm not suggesting we play down to anyone, I think we know pretty definitively that Geno doesn't allow any of his teams to OVERLOOK anyone.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Chris, UConn was second in the nation in rebound margin this past year. Butler's not likely to get more minutes than Stokes did; I don't see a big rebound uptick.

Good stat on the rebound margin. Since you don't think Butler will get more minutes than Stokes--who will start? One of the three frosh with high level potential? Remember, potential means you have not done anything yet (at collegiate level.) Gabby will be the best 6th man in the nation. IMHO, Butler is a proven commodity with the double-double production as a freshman in the BE. She had one full year of learning the system and I am sure that Geno had a clear picture of what he was developing for next year. Bulter had little to no coaching at Georgetown. (have you read about the crazy situation that year) Butler took over that team and kicked some butt. She had over 20 rebounds multiple times. Gino and Stokes both stated Bulter was impressive and she still has 6 months to develop the skills that Geno wants for next year. I am not a betting man unless I know it is almost a sure thing. I am betting on Butler as the starter with Gabby off the bench first.

 

[Bgillon]

Chris, UConn was second in the nation in rebound margin this past year. Butler's not likely to get more minutes than Stokes did; I don't see a big rebound uptick.

Butler will be a starter and get many more minutes than Stokes did. Butler is a two way player where Stokes was not.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Butler will be a starter and get many more minutes than Stokes did. Butler is a two way player where Stokes was not.

There are 11 scholarship players. Stewart, Tuck, Jefferson, and Nurse are likely to get 100+ minutes between them which will leave under 100 minutes for the other 7 players, at least 50 of which should go to KLS, Collier, and Williams. So, maybe 40 minutes for Chong, Butler, Ekmark, and Boykin combined. Unless the latter two simply don't play, I don't see more minutes for Butler than the 17 per game Stokes got as a senior.

I also think it's yet to be seen how good an offensive player Butler is.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Since you don't think Butler will get more minutes than Stokes--who will start?

No idea. Hard for me to believe KLS will start given her defensive issues coming in, and I think Geno really likes Williams' energy off the bench. Right now I'm guessing Butler and then Collier as the two most likely. Whoever it is won't be getting starter's minutes barring injuries.

IMHO, Butler is a proven commodity with the double-double production as a freshman in the BE. She had one full year of learning the system and I am sure that Geno had a clear picture of what he was developing for next year.

The year of development may turn out to be a big factor. That said, you have to remember that her numbers were put up in 36 minutes a game. I expect her to get about half that next year due to the plethora of talented players on the roster. I still have memories of so many who thought Stokes would average a double-double this year with heavy minutes, and neither happened.

 

[Aluminny69]

There are actually several teams that have a good chance to go undefeated, at least until the Final Four. Baylor, Tenn., and Maryland are the first that come to mind. So, several teams will seem dominant until they play UConn. And the SC game should prove to be competitive.

 

[Bgillon]

Sluconn, the difference is Butler DID it her freshman year. Your analogy would better fit the projection of Chong's growth.

 

[nd2tty]

There are actually several teams that have a good chance to go undefeated, at least until the Final Four. Baylor, Tenn., and Maryland are the first that come to mind. So, several teams will seem dominant until they play UConn. And the SC game should prove to be competitive.

Wow. I would be very surprised if Baylor, Tennessee, or Maryland made it the NCAA tournament undefeated.

Baylor probably has the best chance because their OOC schedule is the weakest next year (they pick up their OCC difficulty starting 2016-2017), but they still have to play at Texas and at Oklahoma.

Maryland has Notre Dame at home, James Madison on the road, and in the Big Ten, a dangerous Ohio State team on the road in Columbus. Don’t see them beating ND to be honest.

Tennessee has a very tough SEC schedule, has to play South Carolina (albeit at home), and has Oregon State in Corvallis, Rutgers at home, and presumably Texas, (home), Stanford (road), and Notre Dame (road) (unless they rotate out of those three series starting in 2015-2016). Tennessee will be an improved team next year, but if they start conference play undefeated, I would be shocked. And if they do, beating Oregon State, Texas, Stanford, and Notre Dame en route, they might even have an argument for being ranked #1 (though a three-time defending NC, undefeated UConn should be safe at #1), and the SEC should watch out.

 

[connboy77]

There are actually several teams that have a good chance to go undefeated, at least until the Final Four. Baylor, Tenn., and Maryland are the first that come to mind. So, several teams will seem dominant until they play UConn. And the SC game should prove to be competitive.

Do not agree; there isn't anyway that Tennessee is beating USC twice and I seriously doubt that they will beat Notre Dame at ND. As for Maryland, they also have to play ND which they probably won't beat.

 

[Tonyc]

Let me bring up a couple of points. How will any team defend UConn and slow them down and can those teams outscore UConn? No. UConn has the NPOY Tuck and Mojeff 1st team AAs. Gabby can score,defend,run the floor, play defense and rebound. Now lets get to the freshman. The top players in their class. Katie Lou fantastic shooter and in this line up will get some good looks at 6'3. Collier although not a 3 pt shooter is a scorer, and a lock down defender. Butler has proven what she can do.

There are alot of talented teams in WCBB in the up coming season. Baylor USF Tenn SC and Florida St. They have the talent but not the team. We saw what happened the past couple of seasons with talented teams when they faced UConn. This years version of UConn is better then last seasons NC squad. Yeah UConn brings back alot of players too.

It still remains to be seen if a team can come within double digits of UConn.

Another point that Ive been thinking about. Texas Baylor and TAM all have alot of bigs. IMO no room for Holmes or Cox. Maybe thats why Geno is pursuing them so hard. Hey theres only 1 number 1. UConn is in position to win 5-6 more NCs and no other team can claim that without mentioning "IF". Uconn doesnt have any "IF's"