How dominant will UCONN be in 2015-16?

[meyers7]

But Slu, Why would anyone think Stokes would average a double-double when she had a three year history of no offense.

Don't know, but there were some who thought that. Even when they were informed that only 3 other players in UCONN history had ever avg. a double-double (Lobo, Najarien and Walsh). (not Wolters, not Charles, not Moore, not Stewart). The likelihood that Butler will avg a double-double next year is pretty damn small. If she could get around 7/7, I'd be exstatic.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Don't know, but there were some who thought that. Even when they were informed that only 3 other players in UCONN history had ever avg. a double-double (Lobo, Najarien and Walsh). (not Wolters, not Charles, not Moore, not Stewart). The likelihood that Butler will avg a double-double next year is pretty damn small. If she could get around 7/7, I'd be exstatic.

meyers7 - I appreciate the vital fact that only 3 other players averaged DD's -- knowledge is power. I agree that it will not be likely that Butler will avg. a double double---however, I do believe that she will have several double-doubles over the full season. Who wants to set the over-under for Butlers double-double count? How about the 8-10 game range?

 

[Carnac]

Based on this poll, a majority predicted UCONN would go undefeated this year (myself being one of those people).
http://the-boneyard.com/threads/will-uconn-go-undefeated-in-2014-15.58678/#post-931488

That said, I think excluding the Stanford game, UCONN will be as dominant next season. Besides the one fluke (which was truly a fluke) at the beginning of the season, UCONN rolled to another title with minimal competition. No one could stay within 10 points, the majority of teams couldn't stay within 25-30 points.

The two factors I look at are:
1. How big was the gap between UCONN and everyone else in the nation this year?
2. How much does UCONN improve/decline compared to other teams?

For the answer to 1, Notre Dame was the only team that could compete with Connecticut, and they were able to lose by 'only' ten, while needing a relatively poor offensive game from UCONN. Everyone else was 25+ points worse than Connecticut. The gap was probably as big as it has ever been in women's basketball. When you look at the tiers of women's basketball it was UCONN in Tier 1, Notre Dame in Tier 2, and everyone else in Tier 3.

For 2, I do think some other teams improve more than UCONN will this year, but UCONN stays firmly planted at Tier 1, and I don't see any teams rising for being a 3rd Tier team to a 2nd Tier one. Notre Dame was shaping up to have a team that could compete with and potentially upset UCONN next year, but losing Loyd eliminates that option. Notre Dame can still get to the title game, but doesn't have the horses to knock off UCONN. Other top programs like Florida State, South Carolina, Baylor and Louisville should improve as they return most of their key players, but all of these teams were soundly beat by Notre Dame or Connecticut. They will be better, but still two steps behind UCONN.

I completely agree with your take. 2015 -16 will still find the rest of WCBB playing "hide-n-seek" with UConn. Kara Lawson said it first right after the championship game a few weeks ago: "There's UConn, a BIG gap, then there's everybody else". Last year, the Huskies ran off and hid from the rest of WCBB.

Some would suggest that the departure of KML may affect UConn's ability to consistently score from beyond the arc. Somehow, I don't think that's going to be a problem. Geno has too many players at his disposal that can score for that to be a concern.

They forget the "choking" defense UConn plays on a consistent basis. DEFENSE has, and will continue to be be the main dish on the menu on game day for the Huskies. Opponents will get "served" heaping portions of freshly prepared defense made to order.

Offense will be also on the menu, but defense will always be featured. UConn is hard to beat year in and year out because they consistently beat you on BOTH ends of the court. As last year, opponents will have to score in the 70's (or higher) if they hope to beat the huskies. How many UConn opponents broke 70 last year? Only 3 teams: Stanford, Dayton and USF.

 

[NewCorn]

Chris, UConn was second in the nation in rebound margin this past year. Butler's not likely to get more minutes than Stokes did; I don't see a big rebound uptick.

My guess is that Butler starts, is a major factor on both ends of the court, and gets considerably more minutes than Kiah did. I'm not sure KLS has the defense to start early on.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

My guess is that Butler starts, is a major factor on both ends of the court, and gets considerably more minutes than Kiah did. I'm not sure KLS has the defense to start early on.

Considerably more minutes would put her somewhere in the mid-20's, starter's minutes. That would leave about 70-75 for the 6 players on the bench.

 

[NewCorn]

I love Gabby, but I seriously doubt that she will start. As of now I don't see anyone except Butler starting. A case could possibly be made for KLS or Collier, but it won't be Gabby. Against the bigger teams like USC and Texas UCONN would be at a major disadvantage.

I would not be surprised to see Gabby moved to guard. When Mo leaves we need another guard. If Gabby can get to be reliable with her outside shot, she would be a fantastic solution.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I had a back-an-forth disagreement with Meyers (I think it was him?) about when is best to get UConn. For me I had thought ND would be a measuring stick. If they have Loyd - they can compete. Without Loyd they are still very good - but obviously not the same. Loyd is a super super player. I thought in 2015-2016 they could always be a threat and then if a team or two could ever beat them - they'd show an ability to play some super ball. And then that would made them threat. I just thought this year ND was too young to beat us and USC didn't have the capability to score enough.

Now going into next year -- I don't know if teams like MD, Baylor and many others can score enough. And the way ND beat us up on he boards and the threat of USC pounding us inside now with UCONN having Butler - I don't see that as a huge threat. Without ND I just think it would have to be a lot of things need to go wrong or some of the teams -- everything works out super perfect. As of now I don't see it. So I say ---->UCONN goes undefeated 10-plus.

hoophuskee- - - Jewell Loyd answered all our questions when she took the early road out of Dodge! She knew in her heart that ND even IF she stayed had NO SHOT to beat UCONNfor the NCAA Title and she had no shot at any of the big individual awards vs Stewie so she hit the road!
If there was any chance for ND to win she would have stayed to have been a major part of that, but by leaving she will be getting on with the professional side of her BB career!

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

The thing that makes UCONN so deadly even with 3 rookies playing important minutes next season is that this will be the most ATHLETIC teams Geno and the staff has had! They can use so many different matchups and combos that no matter what Baylor, SoCar, ND, SoFl, MD, and the other possible "problems" bring to the table UCONN can matchup and surpass all of them! Using a BIG lineup, using a small lineup, a mix & match, UCONN can put on the court without losing their edge! Geno will have about 9 to 10 players that can excel at multiple positions, NO-ONE else can attempt that and keep their advantage! UCONN could use Natale B. at PF and C so they could have a lineup of 6' to 6"5' on the court or MoJeff, Chong, Nurse, Gabby, and Stewie and go smaller/quicker!
Gabby won't be moving to guard as she gives UCONN the same nightmare that Nina Davis gives Baylor the most athletic girl on the court that no one can stay with!

 

[Bigpetunia]

The thing that makes UCONN so deadly even with 3 rookies playing important minutes next season is that this will be the most ATHLETIC teams Geno and the staff has had! They can use so many different matchups and combos that no matter what Baylor, SoCar, ND, SoFl, MD, and the other possible "problems" bring to the table UCONN can matchup and surpass all of them! Using a BIG lineup, using a small lineup, a mix & match, UCONN can put on the court without losing their edge! Geno will have about 9 to 10 players that can excel at multiple positions, NO-ONE else can attempt that and keep their advantage! UCONN could use Natale B. at PF and C so they could have a lineup of 6' to 6"5' on the court or MoJeff, Chong, Nurse, Gabby, and Stewie and go smaller/quicker!
Gabby won't be moving to guard as she gives UCONN the same nightmare that Nina Davis gives Baylor the most athletic girl on the court that no one can stay with!

I am not a big fan of the AAC...nor of UConn's presence in it. But here is one area that provides Geno with a slew of luxuries, mainly the ability to experiment with different combinations as you accurately predict. This is why whenever we start talking about Overs and Unders on individual players floor minutes, the smart money for this particular team in this particular conference should always be on Under. I don't know whether Butler or Williams will emerge as the starter, though I strongly suspect the latter, but in either case they will be shuttling back-and-forth off the bench, along with Frosh, as the experimentation process goes forward. I suspect that Collier, in particular, will emerge as a talent hard to keep on the bench. I never like to predict undefeated seasons, but this is a team that will steadily improve as the year progresses, and the improvement, as always, will come from lineup experimentation and situational options with which the coach will inevitably be provided.

 

[Kibitzer]

Hey theres only 1 number 1.

Once again, Tony, you overwhelm us with irrefutable logic.

 

[Kibitzer]

The strongest element of UConn teams coached by Geno is its team defense. Go to the stats/scores and you will consistently see our Huskies limiting very good opponents (e, g., USC-East, ND, etc.) to score 20+ fewer points than their pre-UConn game average.

(All except Stanford. )

 

[Kmoney]

I think Gabby is a competitor. She knows the roster and she knows what she is going to have to improve on. She is already an excellent finisher, interior passer, and rebounder. If she can develope a 15 foot jumper and improve her ball handling, she will be unguardable.

I feel that height is way over rated in the women's game, especially at the college level. 99% of the game is played 2 feet or lower below the rim. If your team wins the battle from 0-8 feet, it will win every time. I think lateral quickness, help-side and weak-side defense will overcome height on most occasions. Just ask any Texas Longhorn. What I am trying to say is that I think Geno will start his five best players that defend and rebound the way he wants, with little regard to their height.

I really love the varied opinions on this board and the generally polite nature of the disagreements. Yes, it is easy to be polite when you are winning everything, but this board was like this when you were not.

 

[Carnac]

Here's the thing. There was an excellent NYT column that told the story in retrospect of the Stanford loss and why it happened. Uconn was missing something psychologically. The team thought it could coast. They were proven wrong early, and everything happened as expected from there. I don't think anything like that loss will happen this season. The players returning will know what it takes for a team to come together, the kinds of practices they'll need to have, etc. Geno wasn't very surprised by the Stanford loss, but I bet he'd be completely floored by a loss like that in 2015-16.

I expect this will be a great year for UConn WBB next year, and I don't believe anyone will be able to stop the Huskies.

You are 100% correct. I've been saying the same thing all season. I was at both of the California games. The game against UC Davis was nothing more than a scrimmage. Davis was not even close to being a serious match for the huskies. UConn knew Stanford would be a tougher matchup, but they didn't expect the Cardinal to be that fired up and come to play with the intensity that they did. Tara had them ready to play. That game could have been won. One more basket or free throw in regulation, and we win.

Other teams are closing the gap on UConn this year, but not so much that we should have anything to fear. Remember, as others are getting better, so are we.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

This will be a development year for UConns freshman and soph classes. I expect this to be Saniya's breakout year. I also expect to see Gabby start. Her quickness sets her apart from everybody else who is a non starter. Gabby can score and defend and her quickness on both sides of the ball especially on defense is the key. Against taller teams Butler will see a lot more playtime.

The amount of playtime non starters see this season will depend on a few things. Against taller teams I expect Butler to see more minutes and against most teams I expect Gabby to see more minutes and that will change depending on the talent we face and their ability to score on Gabby and Natalie. Once again I expect embarrassing blowouts with no team coming within double digits of UConn. It will be tuff to get within 20 pts of UConn as Geno continues to Beat His Best season after season. This season will be no different. As many teams bring back 3-5 starters so does UConn however UConn brings back 3 1st team AA's and no other team does that.

Our underclassman will go through their mental tuffness test when they arrive at UConn. Expectations are high as they should be. This is one of the most talented classes UConn has had and it only will get better as the season continues. The talent level of this team is off the charts. Our current roster and incoming class is unbelievably talented. The future is very bright for UConn. Our nucleus is still there so to bring players in and out of the lineup as they learn to play together as a unit is in tact. The team chemistry will be caught not taught because of the nucleaus of players returning. We will not be dependent on any one player with the talent we have. We have 3 go to players which makes it tuff for opposing defenses. This is a great place to be if your coming to UConn or an underclassman on the roster. Playing and learning from the best cant be taught it must be experienced. These underclassman are in the perfect place, a place where all top players should want to be because they will only get better.

Tonyc- - - -I agree with almost all you wrote but IMHO I think Geno will start N. Butler and bring Gabby off the bench! Geno has always loved bringing "pace changers" off the bench! Loren Dixion and Ketia Swanier for examples! Gabby brings a whole new type of athleticism to the forward position! Plus I really see her adding a 10' or 12' jump shot to her bag of tricks! Plus her free-throw shooting has to improve into the 70% area! As I've stated before I think this will be one of Geno's most ATHLETIC teams with so many ways to go to they'll be almost impossible to play!

 

[Carnac]

Tonyc- - - -I agree with almost all you wrote but IMHO I think Geno will start N. Butler and bring Gabby off the bench! Geno has always loved bringing "pace changers" off the bench! Loren Dixion and Ketia Swanier for examples! Gabby brings a whole new type of athleticism to the forward position! Plus I really see her adding a 10' or 12' jump shot to her bag of tricks! Plus her free-throw shooting has to improve into the 70% area! As I've stated before I think this will be one of Geno's most ATHLETIC teams with so many ways to go to they'll be almost impossible to play!

You're right rshermvikes, with playing at such a premium next year, those bench players are going to come in the game and play like they're possessed.

 

[Carnac]

The thing that makes UCONN so deadly even with 3 rookies playing important minutes next season is that this will be the most ATHLETIC teams Geno and the staff has had! They can use so many different matchups and combos that no matter what Baylor, SoCar, ND, SoFl, MD, and the other possible "problems" bring to the table UCONN can matchup and surpass all of them! Using a BIG lineup, using a small lineup, a mix & match, UCONN can put on the court without losing their edge! Geno will have about 9 to 10 players that can excel at multiple positions, NO-ONE else can attempt that and keep their advantage! UCONN could use Natale B. at PF and C so they could have a lineup of 6' to 6"5' on the court or MoJeff, Chong, Nurse, Gabby, and Stewie and go smaller/quicker!
Gabby won't be moving to guard as she gives UCONN the same nightmare that Nina Davis gives Baylor the most athletic girl on the court that no one can stay with!

BINGO!!! Geno's going to have so many options this coming season, he's going to look like a dealer (shuffling cards, moving players in and out of the game) at a card table. He won't be wearing a coat. He'll be wearing a visor, a long sleeve shirt (with a bow tie) with arm bands just above the wrists, and a big smile.

 

[Nuyoika]

I would not be surprised to see Gabby moved to guard. When Mo leaves we need another guard. If Gabby can get to be reliable with her outside shot, she would be a fantastic solution.

That's what I envisioned as well. She is pretty versatile. People forget she is a guard that we used as a post because that's what we needed her to be for that year. Her role could change every year.

 

[EricLA]

I would not be surprised to see Gabby moved to guard. When Mo leaves we need another guard. If Gabby can get to be reliable with her outside shot, she would be a fantastic solution.

That's what I envisioned as well. She is pretty versatile. People forget she is a guard that we used as a post because that's what we needed her to be for that year. Her role could change every year.

I hope both of you are right - she played guard in HS BUT... 2 straight years of injuries derailed her mid range and outside shooting, as well as her ball handling and passing skills. Geno said "She was a guard? She can't pass, can't dribble, and can't shoot".

IMHO it was great for her to try out for the USA team and see what she needs to work on. At 5'11", in spite of her leaping ability, she's obviously not an ideal size for a post player. I hope she spends her summer working incredibly hard on her guard skills as well as her mid and long range shooting. With the size of Butler, Boykin, Collier, and Samuelson coming in, UCONN has more need for Gabby to be a guard rather than a post player...

 

[Rixxx]

I agree that Collier is going to be tough to keep on the bench. KLS in high school games I have watched, played similar as her older sister at Stanford, perimeter positioning, deadly from behind the arc, not too much activity in the paint or within the team's offensive rotations. I don't see Geno using her in that manner. Nevertheless, Collier gives us that all-around threat anywhere and I see her pushing Kia for minutes. It's not my intention of beating down KLS, but to indicate that I am very impressed with Collier.

 

[PhillyCoach]

I am not a big fan of the AAC...nor of UConn's presence in it. But here is one area that provides Geno with a slew of luxuries, mainly the ability to experiment with different combinations as you accurately predict. This is why whenever we start talking about Overs and Unders on individual players floor minutes, the smart money for this particular team in this particular conference should always be on Under. I don't know whether Butler or Williams will emerge as the starter, though I strongly suspect the latter, but in either case they will be shuttling back-and-forth off the bench, along with Frosh, as the experimentation process goes forward. I suspect that Collier, in particular, will emerge as a talent hard to keep on the bench. I never like to predict undefeated seasons, but this is a team that will steadily improve as the year progresses, and the improvement, as always, will come from lineup experimentation and situational options with which the coach will inevitably be provided.

BigP - just remember--a key element of Geno's NC success is he ALWAYS PLAYS his starters most of the first half and in the beginning of the second half. He plays them until he sees the timing and flow that is necessary to win the NC. Most coaches go by the score (up 25 bring in the bench.) Geno goes by execution. If the starters need a few more minutes to get that smoothness he gives them those minutes (even if they are up by 35-40.) That's number one--this year's team. It is secondary to Geno/CD to prepare the frosh for next year. Of course it is part of the plan. It is just a lower priority.

 

[hoophuskee]

Other teams are closing the gap on UConn this year, but not so much that we should have anything to fear. Remember, as others are getting better, so are we.

Who do you think has closed the gap this upcoming year vs UCONN?

 

[hoophuskee]

I agree that Collier is going to be tough to keep on the bench. KLS in high school games I have watched, played similar as her older sister at Stanford, perimeter positioning, deadly from behind the arc, not too much activity in the paint or within the team's offensive rotations. I don't see Geno using her in that manner. Nevertheless, Collier gives us that all-around threat anywhere and I see her pushing Kia for minutes. It's not my intention of beating down KLS, but to indicate that I am very impressed with Collier.

I've only seen KLS once for a full game and just negligible minutes in one or two others. In that one full game I'm reminded what Geno had to say in regards to his offense, He said something to the effect he wants his team to execute plays that "will work vs anyone." In terms of a player imo it is very similar. What can a player do vs anyone that is trying to defend her? From what I saw of KLS - she was super tremendous stupendous.

IMO an advantage KLS has is what she does extremely well is absolutely brutal to stop and imo her style along with her size "will work vs anyone." She is 6'3 and shoots like KML. And more athletic than KML. That is a lethal combination. You didn't need size to gaur KML. You had to be quick. With KLS you need BOTH size and quickness otherwise KLS becomes "prolific." You need quickness in order to fight over screens.

Botomline is in halfcourt sets and fastbreaks what kind of player is necessary to run her off the 3point line? With KML quick player around 5'7 and above could do it. What type of player can run KLS off the 3pt line? What type of palyer is going to be able to fight through picks and cause KLS to put the ball down rather than up? IO KLS is also a big time all-around threat. For example I think Gabby plays better off of KLS that she can off Collier. Frankly all three can play super off of each other.

I think KLS and NC will be future beasts. Their first year imo we are such a prohibitive favorite it won't matter a lot who gets those few more minutes. Then in year two both will be go-to caliber stars.

 

[PhillyCoach]

I've only seen KLS once for a full game and just negligible minutes in one or two others. In that one full game I'm reminded what Geno had to say in regards to his offense, He said something to the effect he wants his team to execute plays that "will work vs anyone." In terms of a player imo it is very similar. What can a player do vs anyone that is trying to defend her? From what I saw of KLS - she was super tremendous stupendous.

IMO an advantage KLS has is what she does extremely well is absolutely brutal to stop and imo her style along with her size "will work vs anyone." She is 6'3 and shoots like KML. And more athletic than KML. That is a lethal combination. You didn't need size to gaur KML. You had to be quick. With KLS you need BOTH size and quickness otherwise KLS becomes "prolific." You need quickness in order to fight over screens.

Botomline is in halfcourt sets and fastbreaks what kind of player is necessary to run her off the 3point line? With KML quick player around 5'7 and above could do it. What type of player can run KLS off the 3pt line? What type of palyer is going to be able to fight through picks and cause KLS to put the ball down rather than up? IO KLS is also a big time all-around threat. For example I think Gabby plays better off of KLS that she can off Collier. Frankly all three can play super off of each other.

I think KLS and NC will be future beasts. Their first year imo we are such a prohibitive favorite it won't matter a lot who gets those few more minutes. Then in year two both will be go-to caliber stars.

Hoopster - great points. Agree with it all and I love Geno's quote, which says it all in regards to playing "anybody." His recruiting system feeds directly into this philosophy since all players have unique and multiple skills to fit any situation. Just wondering if you or any other posters have seen Samuelson when she fakes the 3 pt. shot and then drives to the hoop, or when driving to the hoop and gets resistance --she pulls up for a short jumper, or fakes the 3 --drives to the hoop-gets covered- and dishes off. I have seen lots of film and highlights (seems like 90% show her hitting the 3 beautifully), but I have never seen the other skills I mentioned above. Just wondering.

 

[j66kicker]

Just wondering if you or any other posters have seen Samuelson when she fakes the 3 pt. shot and then drives to the hoop, or when driving to the hoop and gets resistance --she pulls up for a short jumper, or fakes the 3 --drives to the hoop-gets covered- and dishes off. I have seen lots of film and highlights (seems like 90% show her hitting the 3 beautifully), but I have never seen the other skills I mentioned above. Just wondering.

I have - she has them, although not sure I specifically remember seeing her drive, get covered and dish off. She also has a sneaky way to get open cutting to the hoop without the ball, and yelling for the ball in this situation, since she fakes out her own teammates as much as she does the other team sometimes.

 

[Boxerpups4me]

I think UCONN will still be quite dominant this season. The margin of victories could drop a bit, and maybe a loss or two. I def think teams will be happy to not have to face KML and her dagger like three point shooting accuracy. Not to mention the fact that she contributed in many other ways other than just hitting a bunch of three point shots. I guess it really all depends on how well the highly touted freshman class contributes as well as the transfer. KLS isn't going to come in and right away replace what KML gave the Huskies, not her freshman year anyway. There will be opportunities for teams, especially in the tournament to come in and compete and possibly beat UCONN. I guess we will know just how dominant UCONN will be in the first few games of the season..