I call BS.....she put together a very good class in 2017 and has a slew of midrange players for 2018, but it's hardly a gangbuster class despite what a lot of Tennessee fans are hoping for. She essentially struck out in 2015 and 2016, plus she has no verbals for 2019 yet. She has a very lopsided team headed for next year....we have three highly rated PGs, no highly rated posts, and no consistent perimeter shooters. I'd much rather her take smaller classes where players actually fit roles that are needed for the team.
Also worth noting, Tennessee is not a hard place to recruit to. They have better facilities, fan support, tradition, exposure and recognition than almost anyone else in the country. It isn't like Holly is recruiting all of these top players to a no name school. So many of the top kids who come to Tennessee have mentioned that it's been a lifelong dream to play for the program. They'd still be coming to Tennessee if a different coach were leading the charge. Tennessee for years was the gold standard in women's basketball, and players like Candace Parker and Tamika Catchings were/are two the most popular professional players in the world. I'm confident that anybody who Tennessee would hire to replace Holly could do a comparable or better job recruiting.
Aside from recruiting, Holly has badly underperformed in virtually every other coaching measure, including preseason team expectations, player development, handling the duties as head coach and overall eye test.
Team expectations: Look at the steady decline in results as well as how Tennessee has fared relative to preseason expectations:
2013: Preseason #20 and 4th in SEC. Finished in the Elite 8 with a #2 seed, won the SEC regular season. By far her best season in regards to overachieving. Team was severely underestimated in preseason due to lots of graduating seniors and Pat's retirement. Earned a relatively easy draw into the Elite 8 where they lost to #5 seed Louisville. Best tournament win was on the road against a #6 seed Oklahoma. Holly's best season. Most fans (including myself) were quite pleased with results.
2014: Preseason #4 and 1st in the SEC. Finished in the Sweet 16 as a 1 seed, won the SEC Tournament Championship and finished 2nd in the regular season. Not a bad year by any means, but Tennessee was blown out by Maryland in the Sweet 16 which left a bad taste in many fans mouths. Overall the team underachieved considering high expectations coming into the season. Not a bad season though.
2015 results: Preseason #4 and #2 in the SEC. Finished 30-6, #2 seed, Elite 8 finish, co-SEC Champions.....another year that didn't end in a Final Four but wasn't a bad year overall considering the loss of Harrison midseason and there's no shame in losing in the Elite 8. Tennessee did have an easy path to an Elite 8, facing a 15 seed, 10 seed, and 11 seed before losing to Maryland. They needed a 4th quarter miracle to force OT against the 11 seed in the Sweet 16 after trailing by double digits in the 4th. Their best tournament win was against a 10 seed, Pitt, in the 2nd round. Tennessee did finish lower than expectations once again.
2016 results: Preseason #4 in the country and #2 in the SEC. Finished 22-14, 7th in the SEC, #7 seed in the NCAA tournament, Elite 8 finish....this was arguably the most disappointing season under Holly. A team that was preseason #4 entered the tournament not ranked in the top 25, lost 14 games and finished with an 8-8 record in the SEC. The post season success was the only bright spot of the year, but Tennessee on paper had more talent than anyone in the country besides Connecticut this season (who went undefeated), yet the LVs were barely a top 25 team.
2017 results: Preseason #13/14 in the country and #3 in the SEC. Finished 20-12, 5th in the SEC, #5 seed in the NCAA tournament, 2nd round finish. Despite lower expectations, Tennessee still managed to underachieve, finishing the year out of the top 25 once again and losing in the 2nd round as expected.
2018 results: Preseason #13/18 in the country and #5 in the SEC. Finished 25-8, T4 in the SEC (#7 seed in tournament), #3 seed in NCAA tournament, 2nd round finish. Tennessee lost at home in the tournament for the 1st time ever and likely would've had 10 losses if they didn't luck into playing SC twice without A'ja Wilson. Underachieving wasn't as bad as the last 2 years, but after a strong start against a cupcake preseason schedule, Tennessee finished the year 10-8 in their last 18 games.
So in summary, you have 1 year of overachieving, 3 years of underachieving, and 2 years of badly underachieving.
Player Development:
She has not had 1 WBCA All American in her 6 years at Tennessee despite having the following top recruits come through Tennessee:
#1 recruit Mercedes Russell, no AA honors, never made 1st Team All-SEC, projected as 2nd round draft pick
#2 recruit Evina Westbrook, 1 year under her belt...made SEC All Freshman team
#3 recruit Diamond Deshields, no AA honors, made All-SEC, played 2 seasons and then quit. Projected as top 5 draft pick.
#3 recruit Cierra Burdick, no AA honors, made All-SEC(1st and 2nd team) as a senior, #14 pick in the draft
#4 recruit Ariel Massengale, no AA honors, never made All-SEC, #29 draft pick
#5 recruit Bashaara Graves, no AA honors, NFOY over Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd, named All-SEC 1st/2nd Team as a freshman and then didn't make an All-SEC team again until she made 2nd team as a senior. #22 draft pick.
#6 recruit Jaime Nared, no AA honors, All-SEC as a senior (1st and 2nd team), 2nd team All-SEC as a junior. Projected as a 2nd round draft pick.
#7 recruit Anastasia Hayes, 1 year under her belt...named SEC 6th Woman of the year
#8 recruit Jannah Tucker, played 1 year and transferred
Other top 30 recruits under Holly:
#13 recruit Taber Spani...played 1 season, didn't make it in the pros
#12 recruit Te'a Cooper....transferred after a disappointing freshman campaign
#24 recruit Meighan Simmons...never improved after a strong freshman season under Pat. Hasn't been able to stick in the pros
#21 recruit, Andraya Carter...never lived up to expectations and retired early
#29 recruit, Alexa Middleton...never was a strong contributor, transferred after junior season
#29 recruit, Isabelle Harrison....the only success story under Holly. Made great strides in college and has had a productive pro career.
#12 recruit Rennia Davis....played 1 season so far, SEC All-Freshman team
Out of all that talent, we've had a grand total of 1 successful pro player in Isabelle Harrison. I'm not sure we can even take credit for Diamond if she goes pro considering she transferred in and quit before using up her eligibility.
Head Coaching Duties:
Regularly in press conferences, Holly seems confused and unable to articulate what went wrong. She commonly says phrases similar to, "I told them to do this and they didn't listen" and never takes blame or comes up with valid reasons for what went wrong. A coach in her position needs to have better public speaking skills and she needs to be able to articulate what went wrong when her teams routinely lose to less talented teams.
Holly does not hold her players accountable or demand their best efforts. You never see her call out individual players in press conferences, bench players who put forth poor efforts, and most of all she seems to lack any backbone.
When Diamond Deshields quit, Holly immaturely post a smiley face on Twitter before deleting the post and then deleting her Twitter all together. What other head coach have you seen pull a similar stunt? I don't care how much she disliked Diamond or had issues with her, it is incredibly immature to post anything along those lines on social media. As the head coach of one of the most followed programs in the country, Holly should know how to handle this better.
Eye Test:
Here is the biggest issue IMO. Even in her best years, none of her teams ever looked like they could compete for a championship. They simply have never looked like a true Final Four team or title contender. More over, every year this team gets worse. This board has always roasted Tennessee, even during our championship years, but anyone can see the quality of play has declined immensely the last 4-5 years. Once in a while we get some spurts of great basketball (2018 Notre Dame first half, 2016 Sweet 16 vs. Ohio State), but overall the lack of effort put forth by Tennessee players has been noticeable since Holly took over. You rarely see anyone give 100%, you don't see players scrapping for loose balls or crashing the glass like players did under Pat. Holly has also not been able to figure out how to break a zone defense in the last 3 years. I am unsure why any coach would play anything BUT zone against Tennessee when they've had zero outside shooting and almost all of their offense comes in the paint or in the midrange game. On offense there are zero picks set, and plays are not run. Everything is jam the ball inside to Russell even if it's not there. If she's taking the play off and isn't posting, pass the ball around on the perimeter and have a perimeter player go one on one and settle for a tough jumper late in the shot clock. Or drive to the basket and hope for a foul. Pat was never an offensive mastermind, but her teams played much better offense than Holly's do, and her players always gave best effort so Tennessee regularly had 2nd and 3rd opportunities if they didn't get a good look on the first try.
Next year unless something massive changes, we are going to be a borderline top 25 team IMO. We have zero proven post players, even highly touted ones. This is the first time in my lifetime that Tennessee is going to have 0 top 5 post players on the roster. Tennessee's strength as a program has always been in having strong forwards and centers. We don't have any next year unless we play Davis primarily as a post.
Our guards show promise, but Holly is not going to help them improve skills they've struggled with (avoiding turnovers, perimeter shooting, making smart passes, shot selection, running plays, etc). I am hopeful that players will improve, but all results have shown this is unlikely to happen under Holly.
Additionally, more than ever you can see how important quality coaching is in today's landscape. Geno, Muffet, Dawn, Vic, Rueck, Tara etc have all proven year after year that good coaches make good teams and they help their players reach their potential. There's a reason we've consistently seen these coaches competing in the Final Four while we haven't seen coaches like Holly, Mulkey, Aston, McGuff, and McCallie reach Final Fours despite having more than enough talent to compete for championships. It really does come down to coaching, and from everything we've seen the last 6 years, Holly hasn't shown any ability to be a strong coach or leader.
