Hold on to your hats - Charlie speaks

[fomalhaut]

South Carolina is not in a league of their own. They won two games in overtime they should have lost, and barely got by a Connecticut team which was missing Fudd and Ducharme. South Carolina is exceptionally good in several areas (physical defense, inside scoring, offensive rebounding, and shot blocking) and have made those strengths work for them, overcoming notable deficiencies in outside shooting (they're also below average at the foul line). They should be favorites to win the national championship, but not overwhelming favorites.

 

[Bills Fan]

A no brainer tweet by Charlie, but if accurate, I am trying to figure out whether this is a huge benefit or not. He had UConn as a three seed in Virginia Tech’s regional, & I do know I’d rather be a 3 seed in their regional than a 2 in South Carolinas. I am confident however, that none of the # 1’s would relish a healthy (as much as possible this year), rested UConn team as a #2 or #3 seed in their bracket. To advance in the coming weeks your best players have to look like your best players, and UConn is getting closer to that than they have since early season. I feel that UConn’s ace in the hole is the manner that they are executing on the defensive end of the floor, and of course they have Geno. JMO

I think the "fix" will be in for seeding and Region. The NCAA wanta to make sure 1. that UCONN is in a Greenville Region so it is more likely to get a larger number of Husky fans to attend (way more will go to Greenville than Seattle) and 2. UCONN will NOT be placed in the same Regional as SC, They want that marque matchup and fan bases to be in Dallas for the FF.
I know the above will only work if SC and us avoid any upsets.

 

[MSGRET]

I think had the St John's loss not happened they would have a shot at the last 1 seed, but that's a quad 2 loss and it stings.
Stanford, Indiana, SC I never thought were in danger of losing a 1. The last 1 is between Vtech and Iowa, I have no problem with either but eye test tells me should be Iowa.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that the top 75 teams are considered Quad 1. St John's currently is a NET 55 according to D1 WBB Net Rankings. UConn has no Quad 2 losses according to the NCAA committee.

 

[azfan]

South Carolina won and dominated. I see UConn as one of the best teams in WCBB but I see South Carolina in a league of their own, they are simply to big, strong, and talented for the opponents.

And deep

 

[visitingcock]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that the top 75 teams are considered Quad 1. St John's currently is a NET 55 according to D1 WBB Net Rankings. UConn has no Quad 2 losses according to the NCAA committee.

Depends on where you play.

Home game against 1-30 is Quad One
NeutralCourt against 1-50 is Quad One
at their home against 1-75 is Quad One.

For those who care.

UConn has the second best record of Quad one wins minus losses. If you count UConn's Quad 2 loss as two losses instead of just one, their record drops to a tie with Indiana. Only about 15 teams have a positive record of Quad One wins minus losses.

I have no idea whythemen's committee uses Quad records and the women's committee. Would seem to allow the women's committee to allow more discretion/bias.

 

[HuskylnSC]

He had UConn as a three seed in Virginia Tech’s regional, & I do know I’d rather be a 3 seed in their regional than a 2 in South Carolinas.

The best seed of all is #16 in VT's side of the draw. You'd be up by 10 by the time they figured out is was the NCAA Tourney

 

[UConnCat]

He has Princeton having to "play their way back in." That's only because he has picked Columbia to win the Ivy League Tournament this weekend. He does that despite 1) Princeton and Columbia sharing the Ivy League regular season championship, 2) Princeton playing better than Columbia at the end of the season and 3) the Ivy tournament on Princeton's home court.

Just more reason to root for Princeton.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I'd knock out the 7th or 8th team from the P5 conferences.

 

[BRS24]

oops

 

[BRS24]

No update to top 16 in CC's late last night update, however a few bubbles burst due to USF loss in quarters.

"Bid stealing was the story of the day on Tuesday. South Florida's shocking loss in the AAC tournament quarterfinals subtracted one at-large bid from the field, bouncing West Virginia to the wrong side of the bubble. Less than three hours later, Portland completed a second-half comeback to upend the top seed in the WCC, Gonzaga, a certain at-large choice. That sent St. John's out of the field. The Mountaineers have a chance to play themselves back in at the Big 12 tournament. A win over Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals might be enough, especially if Princeton or Columbia stumbles in the Ivy League semifinals. A second win and the Mountaineers won't need any additional help. The Red Storm, with no games left to play, have a tougher path. They need the Lions or Tigers to stumble on Friday."

 

[Fossil]

UConn was never going to be a three seed unless they lost to Georgetown. We are most likely a 1 seed now based on how the committee has seeded teams in their last two reveals.

I don’t believe that we will get a one seed. A higher two seed is more likely. It just looks like too many teams to jump over for a one. Either seed you would still need to play a quality team to make the final four. So I don’t really think it’s all that important. I think Geno doesn’t believe it’s that big a deal either.

 

[southie]

UConn & LSU switch seeds, and a few regional changes. IMHO, not sure ND and Duke should be #3, however the only team left playing in the top 16 right now is Texas, who could do some damage to the brackets if they win the B12. OK, CO, TN, and L'ville are the 5 seeds, however not sure any of them can be moved to a 4 except for OK, with the B12T still to come.
View attachment 84802

Unfortunately, the only "damage" Texas can do to the bracket this week is to itself. None of the teams seeded higher than Texas in the last reveal or in Creme's bracket had bad losses in their conference tourneys (unless you consider Notre Dame's blowout loss to Louisville bad). So, I just don't see anyone among the 9-12 seeds moving down since the last reveal.

On Thursday, Texas will play either Texas Tech (NET 75) or Kansas State (NET 66). Losing that quarterfinal game probably knocks Texas down to the #5 line; winning that game doesn't move the needle in the committee's eyes. If Texas advances to the semi-final round, the opponent would be either Oklahoma State (NET 47) or West Virginia (NET 6). Advancing to the Big 12 championship game on Sunday just might be necessary to remain on the 4-seed line. The result of the championship game might not even matter as the bracket gets release a couple of hours later; bracket most likely set as of Saturday night.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I don’t believe that we will get a one seed. A higher two seed is more likely. It just looks like too many teams to jump over for a one. Either seed you would still need to play a quality team to make the final four. So I don’t really think it’s all that important. I think Geno doesn’t believe it’s that big a deal either.

We don't have many teams to jump over though- that is just nonsense from the media. Here are the top 9 teams resumes for a seed. We have far and a way a top three resume, not even considering the return of Azzi and CD. I really don't think there is a chance we aren't a one seed.


Virginia Tech: 4 Loses, #9 Net, #31 SOS, 10 Top 25 Net Wins (Last 10: 10-0)
Indiana: 3 loses, #5 Net, #9 SOS, 6 Top Net Wins (Last 10: 8-2)
Iowa: 6 loses, #6 Net, #13 SOS, 6 Top 25 Net wins (Last 10 8-2)
Uconn: 5 loses, #2 Net, #2 SOS , 11 Top 25 Net wins (Last 10: 8-2)
South Carolina: 0 loses, #1 Net, #6 SOS, 9 Top 25 Net Wins, (Last 10: 10-0)
LSU: 2 Loses, # 3 Net, #82 SOS, 2 Top 25 Net wins (Last 10: 8-2)
Stanford: 5 loses, #4 Net, #3 SOS, 9 Top 25 Net Wins (Last 10: 7-3)
Utah: 4 Loses, #7 Net, #37 SOS, 6 Top 25 Net wins (Last 10: 8-2)
Maryland: 6 Loses, #13 Net, #7 SOS, 5 Top 25 Net Wins (Last 10: 8-2)

 

[Fossil]

We have a couple guys on our team that can be very disruptive to their guard play, Nika andd Aubrey. Raven was the only guard who had a good offensive game last time, Zia was okay. With Azzi and Caroline in the mix this time our offense will be spread much better with much better flow. Johnson won't be able to focus on restricting what Nika can do (which Dawn said was an emphasis in the last game) they'll be forced to allow her freer rein, couple that with a secondary ball handler (Azzi) and we will be able to find more open shots, which we should be able to successfully convert at a healthy rate.

Aaliyah and Dorks will have to hold their own inside with some help from Ayanna, Amari and a swinging Aubrey. I think we have the advantage in what our guards can do both offensively and defensively. I like our chances a lot if we get that rematch in the tournament. At full strength and healthy I believe we can beat anybody this post season.

I believe that Connecticut can beat anyone with the only exception being South Carolina due to their depth and length. The only way Connecticut beats them is by spreading the court and having a great day shooting from three which is possible but we haven’t seen a great 3 point shooting game. Fingers crossed our shooters have a day.

 

[npignatjr]

No team is unbeatable but IMO South Carolina will beat any team if both play their A game. Certainly if South Carolina has a bad day and Team X has a great day South Carolina could lose. iMO South Carolina will win the NC but if they falter, as of today, I would pick Iowa for the NC winner.

And if freedom of movement is actually called.

 

[faithfulfan]

I believe that Connecticut can beat anyone with the only exception being South Carolina due to their depth and length. The only way Connecticut beats them is by spreading the court and having a great day shooting from three which is possible but we haven’t seen a great 3 point shooting game. Fingers crossed our shooters have a day.

Spreading the court because of UCONN's shooters allows UCONN bigs to play one on one, and put the slower SC defenders in foul trouble, that is if the refs call the fouls!
Last yrs final the refs didn't, they actually gave SC 22 more foul shots to win by 15!
SC plays mostly their top 7 who are 6 seniors and 1 jr, a very experienced team, but their weakness as stated above can be exposed by UCONN!

 

[Tufkas]

As it relates strictly to UConn and seeding, overall record, especially losses, is sort of meaningless, as there's two distinct versions of this team, healthy and not.

This team healthy, especially with Azzi Fudd, is clearly a #1 seed. They have 3 legitimate 3-pt threats, 2 legitimate posts, and a point guard who was 2nd in the nation in assists.

Without them, they're not.

Placing this team as a 1 seed, off the results of others, off it's current roster including a team-healthy 7 point win over the current #2 in the country, and a 4-pt loss that was a one-posession game with 10 seconds left, to the undefeated #1 overall without Azzi Fudd and Caroline Ducharme, is blatantly obvious. Simply put this team has not lost with their top 7 rotation players healthy and fully available, as they are going into the tournament.

 

[UConnCat]

 

[BRS24]

Yup - as of today, he's 3/13, Philippou is 6/13, and Voepel is 7/12 (picked Houston in AAC, still ongoing)

 

[UConnCat]

Yup - as of today, he's 3/13, Philippou is 6/13, and Voepel is 7/12 (picked Houston in AAC, still ongoing)

He picks Columbia to win the Ivy tournament this weekend. Go Princeton!

 

[SEbluebood]

SC's achilleas heal is whether they can sustain their outside game. If they have a game where they get little production from their wings/guards then they can be beat by a good team.

That hasn’t been true yet, even though they’ve had a number of games with poor guard play and outside shooting. Their rebounding allows them to shoot very poorly and win, as does their defense. That being said, I don’t think they are unbeatable, but as others have said, lots of pieces need to fall in place for them to lose,

 

[SEbluebood]

I think the "fix" will be in for seeding and Region. The NCAA wanta to make sure 1. that UCONN is in a Greenville Region so it is more likely to get a larger number of Husky fans to attend (way more will go to Greenville than Seattle) and 2. UCONN will NOT be placed in the same Regional as SC, They want that marque matchup and fan bases to be in Dallas for the FF.
I know the above will only work if SC and us avoid any upsets.

The NCAA does not need UConn to fill seats in Greenville because the SC fans will do that as they lead the nation in attendance and this is basically a home game for them. If there is a “seeding fix” it won’t be based on attendance in Greenville.

 

[SEbluebood]

Spreading the court because of UCONN's shooters allows UCONN bigs to play one on one, and put the slower SC defenders in foul trouble, that is if the refs call the fouls!
Last yrs final the refs didn't, they actually gave SC 22 more foul shots to win by 15!
SC plays mostly their top 7 who are 6 seniors and 1 jr, a very experienced team, but their weakness as stated above can be exposed by UCONN!

Not sure SC defenders are slower, in fact, they are at least equal to us athletically and probably more athletic overall. 22-15 foul shots last year is not a huge discrepancy and also keep in mind that UConn had to foul later in the game.

 

[DefenseBB]

The NCAA does not need UConn to fill seats in Greenville because the SC fans will do that as they lead the nation in attendance and this is basically a home game for them. If there is a “seeding fix” it won’t be based on attendance in Greenville.

The NCAA does need to fill seats out west as that is ALWAYS the lowest attended regional especially in California. This years is in Seattle and all the Oregon teams stink and while WSU is a nice story they only average 902 fans per game which frankly is PUTRID. I might need @nwhoopfan to offer an opinion as to why but my point is the committee erred by awarding the Emersld City as host.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Not sure SC defenders are slower, in fact, they are at least equal to us athletically and probably more athletic overall. 22-15 foul shots last year is not a huge discrepancy and also keep in mind that UConn had to foul later in the game.

I think the Aaliyah-Cardosa match up in February proved that SC front court is definitely slower than ours.