Hold on to your hats - Charlie speaks

[Cuango]

UConn aside, I need an LSU & Maryland matchup bad. Not only Reese’s former team wanting to beat her new team, but Kim vs. Brenda would be interesting to say the least.

LSU by 10+

 

[UConnCat]

I'd be curious if anyone has ever seen Charlie delineate his strategy? Is it: 1) I'm all-knowing and all-powerful, and this is what the brackets need to look like, or 2) I'm doing my best to predict what the committee will do?

He and others at ESPN say 2) is his goal but we know from tweets ("I was right all along and ___ should not be top 16") suggests he lets 1) affect his work. He's human with an ego so understandable. All and all he and ESPN get what they want: fans paying attention. He'll still have a lot to say after the Committee reveals its brackets and the games begin but what he says then will be much less relevant or newsworthy.

After the tournament he'll reveal his preseason top 25 and the cycle will begin again.

 

[Cuango]

And deep

While SC is clearly the (heavy) favorite, they have nevertheless shown that they are not an unbeatable juggernaut. They’ve had two overtime games, and a four point game against a seriously compromised UConn team that was missing their best player and another starter/top bench player. They should win but it’s clearly not a certainty. One bad offensive game coupled with a hot shooting opponent and it’s bye bye SC! Not likely perhaps but, “Hope springs eternal”. That reminds me of another (perhaps appropriate) saying, “whistling past the graveyard”
Not singling out SC in particular, I’d just as soon Stanford, Indiana, Iowa, LSU, etc are gone if we make the final four too. I know it’s shameful and cowardly but….there it is! I promise I’ll be braver next year!

 

[Bone Dog]

I didn't notice this one when it first came out. Creme with another artful piece attempting to minimize UConn's historic achievements. In this one, He's forecasting an SC NC, which isn't unlikely, and the comparing it to other undefeated NCs. The problem is how to do that without noticing UConn's towering achievements in precisely this area.

It must have killed him to post a table to past undefeated seasons that clearly shows SC to trail UConn in several statistical categories. In the end, he resorts to noting that UConn wasn't ranked #1 for the entirety of everyone of those seasons. Gee, I wonder why that was?

South Carolina's quest for a perfect season and back-to-back titles

The Gamecocks haven't lost in a year. As they close in on a perfect season, it's easy to see similarities with undefeated teams of the past and how Dawn Staley has them ready for a run at a repeat.

www.espn.com

 

[BRS24]

I didn't notice this one when it first came out. Creme with another artful piece attempting to minimize UConn's historic achievements. In this one, He's forecasting an SC NC, which isn't unlikely, and the comparing it to other undefeated NCs. The problem is how to do that without noticing UConn's towering achievements in precisely this area.

It must have killed him to post a table to past undefeated seasons that clearly shows SC to trail UConn in several statistical categories. In the end, he resorts to noting that UConn wasn't ranked #1 for the entirety of everyone of those seasons. Gee, I wonder why that was?

South Carolina's quest for a perfect season and back-to-back titles

The Gamecocks haven't lost in a year. As they close in on a perfect season, it's easy to see similarities with undefeated teams of the past and how Dawn Staley has them ready for a run at a repeat.

www.espn.com

I read this article and thought, huh, is it my UConn-bias, or did he cite a bunch of stuff re TN without going into detail about UConn's undefeated+natty years?

 

[VA Huskie]

I read this article and thought, huh, is it my UConn-bias, or did he cite a bunch of stuff re TN without going into detail about UConn's undefeated+natty years?

Agree with both of your comments. My guess is that ESPN writers feel that people are tired of UConn and/or hate UConn, so best to downplay them. That is, unless we have Stewie and can’t be ignored.

 

[HopJim]

With all due respect, it’s difficult to see how a nationally known writer whose entire career is built around his “bracketology” schtick can be said to have no influence on tournament selections. It is basically inconceivable that many of the selectors do not look at Crème’s brackets and accompanying articles. As for him having the same influence as “you and I” , I’m afraid that dog just won’t hunt. I wish it did though, as I find him to be extremely biased and full of himself.

If you have followed Creme's picks and through the years have the committees have followed his assessments, you realize there is little influence. Charlie is more click bait than factual analysis.

 

[itsasport]

If you have followed Creme's picks and through the years have the committees have followed his assessments, you realize there is little influence. Charlie is more click bait than factual analysis.

I was just going to ask if the actual brackets matched Creme's. I'm glad they don't.

Keeping LSU as a top team is just a continuation of all the years Tenn was picked way past their prime and were eliminated early in the post season- only to be rated highly again the following year.

 

[uconnfan68]

If you have followed Creme's picks and through the years have the committees have followed his assessments, you realize there is little influence. Charlie is more click bait than factual analysis.

Conveniently ignores every UConn team has a higher mov, while searching for SC dominance.

 

[toadfoot]

I would take this bracket but it’s also not consistent with how the committee has seeded teams in the previous two reveals. People are overestimating the last ten games with the committee has consistently rewarded team for their full resume.

As I said on another thread a UConn versus Indiana debate should give the #1 to UConn. In almost any metric you want to name UConn ranks better than Indiana. NET ranking, wins against top 25 NET, common opponents, SOS and regular season and conference tournament champions while Indiana lost in tournament semifinals. The only edge Indiana could claim would be last 10 but given the injury situation, which the committee is supposed to consider I can’t see how Indiana rates a #1 in the same bracket as UConn.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I was just going to ask if the actual brackets matched Creme's. I'm glad they don't.

Keeping LSU as a top team is just a continuation of all the years Tenn was picked way past their prime and were eliminated early in the post season- only to be rated highly again the following year.

As is said every year -

• Charlie is attempting to predict what the committee will do.
• He is usually very accurate with the teams that are in and out. Usually misses one. Sometimes a couple. This usually involves teams that are a bit unpredictable. The committee's specific thinking within the parameters they are following appears to vary from season to season.
• He is decent at seed line. To the extent he errs, again, it is often "could be either" choices. In previous years where geography was extra important, that sometimes would trip him up as well. But I doubt very many folks really have the experience to produce the results he does.

All that said, the actual regions / sub-regions is typically just guessing. I have never placed any great stock in that part of his work. He's not always wrong, but if I was traveling to follow my team I wouldn't make a reservation based on his guess.

 

[BRS24]

1 am update to lower seeds, no change to top 16:

"The Big 12 tournament was expected to have some bracket implications, but it wasn't supposed to start so soon. TCU's upset of Kansas in Thursday's first round pushes the Jayhawks to a No. 11 seed, among the Last Four In and in a First Four game. The even bigger impact comes Friday when West Virginia meets Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers are still in position to play their way into the field. It starts with a win over the Cowgirls, but that might not be the end of the mission. If Princeton or Columbia lose in Friday's Ivy League semifinals, then West Virginia would need only one win. If the Tigers and Lions advance to face each other Saturday, the Mountaineers might need to win on Saturday in the semifinals to become the last team in the field."

First out - St Johns
Last in - Princeton

 

[HopJim]

As I said on another thread a UConn versus Indiana debate should give the #1 to UConn. In almost any metric you want to name UConn ranks better than Indiana. NET ranking, wins against top 25 NET, common opponents, SOS and regular season and conference tournament champions while Indiana lost in tournament semifinals. The only edge Indiana could claim would be last 10 but given the injury situation, which the committee is supposed to consider I can’t see how Indiana rates a #1 in the same bracket as UConn.

Toad, agree with your assessment but if you could take this bracket as is, you would lock it in immediately. No easy way to the Final 4 but UConn matches up very well against the top teams. Indiana in particular can turn in some great shooting performances, but it is doubtful that they have faced defenders as strong across the board as UConn's.

 

[SLY63]

Regardless of specific seed, I would say we want avoid the following top 10 teams, in order of most dangerous to least...

1. SC
2. Stanford
3. Indiana

And prefer to face

1. Va Tech
2. Utah
3. Iowa

 

[Tonyc]

Lets make this simple This is what makes the NEW UConn so different from most other teams

UConn has a suffocating defense which has proved to shut down even the best scorers and teams they've faced.
UConn has height that can defend and create their own shot.
UConn has Azzi Lou and Caroline all who can create their own shot and shoot at a very high percentage from the floor and line
UConn has a team of scorers who can put up big numbers at a very high percentage from the floor.
UConn has won 29 games most of which was without all their starters
UConn has two shooters who shoot at a very high percentage from the floor and is not dependent on them alone
UConn showed us in BET tournament what they can do as they dismantled their opponents.

 

[Bone Dog]

Lets make this simple This is what makes the NEW UConn so different from most other teams

UConn has a suffocating defense which has proved to shut down even the best scorers and teams they've faced.
UConn has height that can defend and create their own shot.
UConn has Azzi Lou and Caroline all who can create their own shot and shoot at a very high percentage from the floor and line
UConn has a team of scorers who can put up big numbers at a very high percentage from the floor.
UConn has won 29 games most of which was without all their starters
UConn has two shooters who shoot at a very high percentage from the floor and is not dependent on them alone
UConn showed us in BET tournament what they can do as they dismantled their opponents.

Mostly agree. And those last 3 made 3s by Azzi against Villanova were like a warning shot to opposing coaches. I’m sure they’d watched her struggle finding the range and were calculating how much they could slack off her to pack the paint. Every team we face in the tournament will still make Azzi prove it — what choice do they have? Otherwise Aaliyah and Dorka will eat them alive in the post. Pick your poison.

I say, let’s make the new kids proud they chose UConn. Let’s make a good run and maybe even win it all! We’ll do it for Dorka and Lou. But also for KK Ashlynn Q and Jana… and for Ayanna and Ice and Inês!

 

[MSGRET]

Lets make this simple This is what makes the NEW UConn so different from most other teams

UConn has a suffocating defense which has proved to shut down even the best scorers and teams they've faced.
UConn has height that can defend and create their own shot.
UConn has Azzi Lou and Caroline all who can create their own shot and shoot at a very high percentage from the floor and line
UConn has a team of scorers who can put up big numbers at a very high percentage from the floor.
UConn has won 29 games most of which was without all their starters
UConn has two shooters who shoot at a very high percentage from the floor and is not dependent on them alone
UConn showed us in BET tournament what they can do as they dismantled their opponents.

You forgot one, UConn has 10 healthy and rested players available for the first time since the Texas game.

 

[MSGRET]

Well I guess if both Princeton and Columbia make it to the final of the Ivy League tournament they are in. West Virginia lost to OK St. 62-61.

 

[BRS24]

3 pm update, because of course ...

"West Virginia's last-second loss to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals might be the backbreaker for the Mountaineers' NCAA tournament chances. They have six top-50 NET wins, which highlights the résumé, but a weak nonconference schedule and a NET rating in the 60s are historically tough for bubble teams to overcome. Losses have proved costly for Big 12 teams on consecutive days. Kansas falling to TCU in the first round might now mean a First Four game for the Jayhawks."

First out - St Johns
Last in - Princeton

 

[MSGRET]

3 pm update, because of course ...

"West Virginia's last-second loss to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals might be the backbreaker for the Mountaineers' NCAA tournament chances. They have six top-50 NET wins, which highlights the résumé, but a weak nonconference schedule and a NET rating in the 60s are historically tough for bubble teams to overcome. Losses have proved costly for Big 12 teams on consecutive days. Kansas falling to TCU in the first round might now mean a First Four game for the Jayhawks."

First out - St Johns
Last in - Princeton

Considering that Princeton and Columbia have a NET of 40 and 44, even St. John's is higher at 55.

 

[MSGRET]

Still trying to figure out why Charlie has ND as a 3 seed. The beating they took from Louisville was just atrocious, they are not the same without Miles. If I was the committee I would make them at least a 4 seed. The only way they stay a 3 seed if Ivy came out and stated that she is playing, which is most likely not true. As of right now he has the Big East gets 5 teams going to the dance.

 

[BRS24]

Late last night update:

"Heart-breaking losses Friday might have extinguished NCAA tournament hopes for two teams. West Virginia led for nearly the entire game before falling in the final second to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 quarterfinals. Had the Mountaineers won, they would have moved into the field because Columbia fell in overtime to Harvard in the Ivy League semifinals. St. John's is the beneficiary and moves into the field as the last team in. The Lions are now the first team out with West Virginia right behind. With two more days of games remaining, it appears the final spot in the field will come down to St. John's, Columbia and West Virginia. Princeton would also be in the running if the Tigers fail to clinch the Ivy's automatic NCAA bid Saturday."

First out - Columbia
Last in - St Johns

It will be interesting to see if/how the Big12 tourney results affect the top 16.

 

[Topdawg]

Charlie’ final reveal has Iowa as the last #1 seed and UConn as the first #2 seed.

He also has St John’s as the last team in to give the big East 5 teams in the tournament.

Let’s see what the committee says Sunday evening.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Late last night update:

"Heart-breaking losses Friday might have extinguished NCAA tournament hopes for two teams. West Virginia led for nearly the entire game before falling in the final second to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 quarterfinals. Had the Mountaineers won, they would have moved into the field because Columbia fell in overtime to Harvard in the Ivy League semifinals. St. John's is the beneficiary and moves into the field as the last team in. The Lions are now the first team out with West Virginia right behind. With two more days of games remaining, it appears the final spot in the field will come down to St. John's, Columbia and West Virginia. Princeton would also be in the running if the Tigers fail to clinch the Ivy's automatic NCAA bid Saturday."

First out - Columbia
Last in - St Johns

It will be interesting to see if/how the Big12 tourney results affect the top 16.

BRS24- - -Having heard West Virginia's record and wins IMHO WVA should be in the field of 68 to start with!
They've beaten several teams that are higher ranked such as: KS St, 2x/ Baylor, 2x/ GA/ IA St/ & Okla St!
Charlie has some biases vs certain teams & leagues! I think he's out to lunch on this one!

 

[YKCornelius]

Well....a ninety degree pivot from Charlie the night before Selection Sunday is certainly eyebrow-raising. Either he received some last-minute, inside skinny from backdoor contacts at the NCAA, or he is getting frazzled and coming apart.

While Charlie is correct that the committee condensed their second top-16 reveal rationale into a manageable "What-Has-Changed-Since-The-First-Reveal-Two-Weeks-Prior" philosophy, he is incorrect to think the committee gave it disproportionate weight above other criteria (or worse, set aside all of the calculus that went into the first reveal). The what-have-you-done-lately adjustment wasn't a change in the committee's recipe, but rather, for all practical purposes, it was the only criteria they really had for tweaking the results of first reveal.

How do we know this? Simple - if for the second reveal, the committee had ONLY taken into account what had changed in the interim two weeks, UConn would have dropped out of the top-16 because their play over that time was pedestrian. The committee dropping UConn to a #2 was proof that they were still (correctly) applying a multi-faceted criteria assessment across the season, per their own guidelines.

Compared to the two weeks between the first and second reveal, many teams played noticeably fewer games than others since 28 February (especially those who were one-and-done in their tourneys). Therefore, the evaluation data points over the last two weeks by the committee are not proportionate, which would suggest that their effect would be on the margins.

Granted Iowa had a magical Big Ten tournament. However, a miracle buzzer-beater in the semi's, followed by a blow-out win against a jump-shooting team playing on tired legs a third straight day is hardly cause to jump the Hawkeyes over two #2 seeds (V.Tech and UConn) that also impressively won their tournaments. If the committee ends up placing Iowa into a #1 seed, then they are effectively weighting the tournament results over all other criteria. I don't think they will do that.

Thinking that "recent trends" or "the image of the Hawkeyes" will sway an entire committee - to the point that it will have them rethink their decision process (not to mention set-aside their sweat-equity) that has been coordinated for months across multiple regional committees - seems both illogical and impractical.

Charlie, relax, have a beer. It's been a whacky season for everybody.

 

[oldude]

Well....a ninety degree pivot from Charlie the night before Selection Sunday is certainly eyebrow-raising. Either he received some last-minute, inside skinny from backdoor contacts at the NCAA, or he is getting frazzled and coming apart.

While Charlie is correct that the committee condensed their second top-16 reveal rationale into a manageable "What-Has-Changed-Since-The-First-Reveal-Two-Weeks-Prior" philosophy, he is incorrect to think the committee gave it disproportionate weight above other criteria (or worse, set aside all of the calculus that went into the first reveal). The what-have-you-done-lately adjustment wasn't a change in the committee's recipe, but rather, for all practical purposes, it was the only criteria they really had for tweaking the results of first reveal.

How do we know this? Simple - if for the second reveal, the committee had ONLY taken into account what had changed in the interim two weeks, UConn would have dropped out of the top-16 because their play over that time was pedestrian. The committee dropping UConn to a #2 was proof that they were still (correctly) applying a multi-faceted criteria assessment across the season, per their own guidelines.

Compared to the two weeks between the first and second reveal, many teams played noticeably fewer games than others since 28 February (especially those who were one-and-done in their tourneys). Therefore, the evaluation data points over the last two weeks by the committee are not proportionate, which would suggest that their effect would be on the margins.

Granted Iowa had a magical Big Ten tournament. However, a miracle buzzer-beater in the semi's, followed by a blow-out win against a jump-shooting team playing on tired legs a third straight day is hardly cause to jump the Hawkeyes over two #2 seeds (V.Tech and UConn) that also impressively won their tournaments. If the committee ends up placing Iowa into a #1 seed, then they are effectively weighting the tournament results over all other criteria. I don't think they will do that.

Thinking that "recent trends" or "the image of the Hawkeyes" will sway an entire committee - to the point that it will have them rethink their decision process (not to mention set-aside their sweat-equity) that has been coordinated for months across multiple regional committees - seems both illogical and impractical.

Charlie, relax, have a beer. It's been a whacky season for everybody.

Excellent analysis. I would add one additional element to the UConn vs Iowa seeding question under two Selection Committee’s key considerations, “Total Body of Work” and “injuries.”

If UConn and Iowa are close for the last #1 seed then the committee has to consider the battle between the two teams that took place in November on a neutral court in Portland, OR. In that game, Iowa had all their key players. But UConn was playing without Dorka.

Clark had a good, but not great game, being harassed constantly by Nika. Czinano, Iowa’s other star, was largely shut down and completely outplayed by Aaliyah. Azzi exploded in the 2nd half, totaling 24 points, putting away the game for the Huskies down the stretch.

Azzi is back and Dorka is currently playing the best basketball of her career. Considering the outcome of the game between UConn & Iowa earlier this season, it would be very difficult to elevate the Hawkeyes over the Huskies.

 

[BRS24]

Good morning to everyone except CC. @YKCornelius has some good points in prior post. Here's CC's latest from last night:

"In the final top-16 reveal, the NCAA committee leaned toward recent success over full body of work -- even though that hasn't been what the committee has prioritized in the past. This week, a nagging feeling has lingered that the trend will continue. So as we head into Selection Sunday, Iowa has been elevated to the fourth No. 1 seed, dropping Stanford to the 2-line. The Cardinal have a better overall résumé than Iowa, but the image of the Hawkeyes beating Indiana on a buzzer-beater in the regular-season finale then blowing out Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament title game might prove too much to ignore for this committee. Stanford losing in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals opened the door; the committee will push Iowa through it. UConn also slides up the 2-line and to No. 5 overall. Deciphering the paper-thin differences among the Huskies, Hawkeyes and Cardinal looms as the committee's most difficult task."

My questions are still the seeding of Notre Dame and Duke, however entire body of work before post season and injuries may explain it.

 

[Bjbod]

Excellent analysis. I would add one additional element to the UConn vs Iowa seeding question under two Selection Committee’s key considerations, “Total Body of Work” and “injuries.”

If UConn and Iowa are close for the last #1 seed then the committee has to consider the battle between the two teams that took place in November on a neutral court in Portland, OR. In that game, Iowa had all their key players. But UConn was playing without Dorka.

Clark had a good, but not great game, being harassed constantly by Nika. Czinano, Iowa’s other star, was largely shut down and completely outplayed by Aaliyah. Azzi exploded in the 2nd half, totaling 24 points, putting away the game for the Huskies down the stretch.

Azzi is back and Dorka is currently playing the best basketball of her career. Considering the outcome of the game between UConn & Iowa earlier this season, it would be very difficult to elevate the Hawkeyes over the Huskies.

Personally I'd put UConn above Iowa, probably #2 overall, but we all have our own criteria that may not match the committee's.

The season is so long. This seems odd for a veteran team like Iowa, but they're definitely playing better now than early in the year.

One thing Iowa seems to have as a potential advantage vs most teams is speed up the court. However, even though the score wasn't that high, I was really impressed with the pace of the Big East Championship Game. Both 'Nova and the Huskies could get up and down,.

Would love to see a rematch with UConn, but not until the Final Four, please!

 

[Topdawg]

Excellent analysis. I would add one additional element to the UConn vs Iowa seeding question under two Selection Committee’s key considerations, “Total Body of Work” and “injuries.”

If UConn and Iowa are close for the last #1 seed then the committee has to consider the battle between the two teams that took place in November on a neutral court in Portland, OR. In that game, Iowa had all their key players. But UConn was playing without Dorka.

Clark had a good, but not great game, being harassed constantly by Nika. Czinano, Iowa’s other star, was largely shut down and completely outplayed by Aaliyah. Azzi exploded in the 2nd half, totaling 24 points, putting away the game for the Huskies down the stretch.

Azzi is back and Dorka is currently playing the best basketball of her career. Considering the outcome of the game between UConn & Iowa earlier this season, it would be very difficult to elevate the Hawkeyes over the Huskies.

Yes, Iowa did have a great win against OSU and a strong finish to the season. However, at the end of Feb they had a blowout 86-68 loss against Maryland. The box score shows they were at full strength and had 10 players who saw game time. How come that loss is mentioned rarely? UConn had no blowout losses.

 

[Centerstream]

So Charlie is putting us in the bracket where we have played the other 3 top teams.
Doesn't the Committee also take this into consideration?