Wow, where to begin? Yes, UConn COULD lose any of those games, but probability alone suggests it would not lose ALL of them. And, as more than one responder has suggested, the main reason why this estimate is exaggerated is that is assumes that UConn got worse and everyone else got better or stayed the same. It remains to be seen whether the three freshment can make the team better than Maya could, but they certainly give the team a new flexibility and strength.
There also seems to be an assumption that UConn will be offensively challenged this year, While it may be true that a young team will have its scoring slumps, I believe this roster has enough offensive solutions to allow the team to avoid most of these kinds of problems. Stefanie will get her share of points, as will KML and Hartley. I believe Tiff will have a better senior than junior year (I'm of the opinion that her last year couldn't have been much more frustrating to watch, but that's just IMHO). If Kelly gives the team only what she contributed last year and Caroline can play 15 minutes a game as a solid contributor, this team should do quite well. Yes, those are ifs, but in life, everything is, yes?
I would agree that a loss against Baylor is likely, and one against Stanford is certainly possible. A&M is a fine team, but I don't see the matchup problem to be quite as bad as suggested, and while Notre Dame is a good team and well-coached, I think UConn can solve even the new and improved Skylar.
UConn could certainly lose a game to Gtown, the most irritating team in the world, and maybe two, but those are by no means sure things. I suppose you could claim that the reason GTown did not win last year is because it could not get to 70 points. That's like saying the reason McCain didn't win the election is because he couldn't get one more vote than Obama. Well, yeah, and so?
GTown does not necessarily get better this year, and UConn might just match up better against them. No way to tell yet, but these games are difficult but not necessarily losses.
As for Duke, I just don't believe it. They sure didn't defend all that well against UConn last year, and their offense was second rate. Do we have any reason to think either of those things will change? Not that I can see.
So I see two probable losses, two more possible and a couple of 50-50s. Barring injuries and bad fortune, six losses, max, two losses, minimum. A fine season and maybe a trip to the Final Four.
