Hamidou Diallo Graduates

[upstater]

The idea that NBA GMs make draft decisions based in part on a kid's high school ranking is one of the strangest ideas that gets floated on this board.

Yes, which is why I specifically wrote: "I'm not saying the scouts are convinced by recruitniks, but the consensus rankings have an impact on player perception through their freshman year."

ESPN focuses on the top 10 kids all year long. These kids make Award lists before ever taking a class. 1st teams too. They get all the buzz.

The scouts aren't looking at the lists. But the buzz is there, the fans have favorites and you consistently see top 10 kids leave for the draft when they have no business doing it. It explains James Young, Austin Rivers, Noah Vonleh, Nerlens Noel, Shabazz Muhammad. If these kids were ranked say 25 or so, and had the same middling freshman years, they don't leave for the draft early.

These get hyped up for their potential, they go through freshman year, and they are still raw, and they get drafted on potential.

Find players ranked below 20 who do the same thing. It doesn't happen. And this is why a kid would want to manage his commitment process to stay at that level, because ESPN will follow him through the year.

 

[upstater]

I've been saying this for a while. And guys on here love to call a kid a bust or the program he chose a disservice because the kid was ranked #7 in his high school class last year and wasn't selected in the first round of this years NBA draft. (Diamond Stone comes to mind) Hello. How about the fact that there are probably 20 similarly ranked kids on all the sites in his class that were also one and dones that he was competing with. Then there are all the Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors who were top 20 kids coming out in their recruiting class that went to school for extra years of development (Yes the NBA treasures the young guys that have potential but some late bloomers such Hield put up a very good draft case). And then there a handful of about 5-10 elite european players that they are competing with. And then sometimes it comes down to fit and need of each team.

Top 20 is different than top 10. I'm only referring to the top 10 kids.

It is the same thing when players like Stromile Swift used to get drafted out of high school. Yes, he was a top 10 kid. And yes, the GMs don't look at the recruitnik rankings and base their decisions off of that. But they are drafting on potential. For every Kobe Bryant, there were a dozen busts in the top 20 of the draft.

It is the same exact concept. It's very difficult for a GM to judge if an 18 or 19 year old has the potential to be an NBA star, but the temptation is too great to pass on them on the chance that they may be. Same logic applies. If a kid like Millsap or Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green for example blows up in the NBA, all the GMs who passed on him can't be blamed. But what about DeRozan? If you pass on him, despite all the talent he has, and the little he showed at USC, you can be second-guessed. He had all the hype. Andre Drummond fits that category as well.

There is no way to know that Drummond or Derozan will pan out. Which is why it is a risk to take them based on the hype alone.

 

[James]

The idea that NBA GMs make draft decisions based in part on a kid's high school ranking is one of the strangest ideas that gets floated on this board.

josh selby says hello. also cliff alexander. #rockchalk

 

[caw]

josh selby says hello. also cliff alexander. #rockchalk

Wiggins aside, what good NBA guys have come out of KU in the past 15 years? I can't think of any off the top of my head. Most have been mediocre to busts.

 

[JMick]

Wiggins aside, what good NBA guys have come out of KU in the past 15 years? I can't think of any off the top of my head. Most have been mediocre to busts.

Kansas makes a living off of the 2-3 year guys in the 20-40 range. Great basketball players who may not have the same physical gifts for the NBA.

 

[superjohn]

Wiggins aside, what good NBA guys have come out of KU in the past 15 years? I can't think of any off the top of my head. Most have been mediocre to busts.

The Morris twins are decent, outside of them and Wiggins it's a bunch of cr@p.

 

[James]

Wiggins aside, what good NBA guys have come out of KU in the past 15 years? I can't think of any off the top of my head. Most have been mediocre to busts.

i still have no clue about wiggins, he is no karl towns thats for sure. Oubre/mclemore have looked very suspect... marcus morris is on a great contract but he's nothing special. Yeah i would take Dre, Kemba, and lamb over ku's nba players since 2010.

 

[Walker11]

Top 20 is different than top 10. I'm only referring to the top 10 kids.

It is the same thing when players like Stromile Swift used to get drafted out of high school. Yes, he was a top 10 kid. And yes, the GMs don't look at the recruitnik rankings and base their decisions off of that. But they are drafting on potential. For every Kobe Bryant, there were a dozen busts in the top 20 of the draft.

It is the same exact concept. It's very difficult for a GM to judge if an 18 or 19 year old has the potential to be an NBA star, but the temptation is too great to pass on them on the chance that they may be. Same logic applies. If a kid like Millsap or Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green for example blows up in the NBA, all the GMs who passed on him can't be blamed. But what about DeRozan? If you pass on him, despite all the talent he has, and the little he showed at USC, you can be second-guessed. He had all the hype. Andre Drummond fits that category as well.

There is no way to know that Drummond or Derozan will pan out. Which is why it is a risk to take them based on the hype alone.

I think you are confusing Swift with Kwame Brown. Swift was unheralded, I think a 3 star actually. All the guys you mentioned like Skal, Vonleh, Noel, Muhammed etc. were drafted because of their elite physical traits. Which is also why they were hyped as high school recruits. And @James post about Selby and Alexander contradicts your point. Selby was number 1 overall on Rivals and went in the second round after his first year.

 

[superjohn]

i still have no clue about wiggins, he is no karl towns thats for sure. Oubre/mclemore have looked very suspect... marcus morris is on a great contract but he's nothing special. Yeah i would take Dre, Kemba, and lamb over ku's nba players since 2010.

Nobody in the league is like Karl Anthony Towns.

 

[superjohn]

Top 20 is different than top 10. I'm only referring to the top 10 kids.

It is the same thing when players like Stromile Swift used to get drafted out of high school. Yes, he was a top 10 kid. And yes, the GMs don't look at the recruitnik rankings and base their decisions off of that. But they are drafting on potential. For every Kobe Bryant, there were a dozen busts in the top 20 of the draft.

It is the same exact concept. It's very difficult for a GM to judge if an 18 or 19 year old has the potential to be an NBA star, but the temptation is too great to pass on them on the chance that they may be. Same logic applies. If a kid like Millsap or Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green for example blows up in the NBA, all the GMs who passed on him can't be blamed. But what about DeRozan? If you pass on him, despite all the talent he has, and the little he showed at USC, you can be second-guessed. He had all the hype. Andre Drummond fits that category as well.

There is no way to know that Drummond or Derozan will pan out. Which is why it is a risk to take them based on the hype alone.

Drummond is about the least riskiest player you could draft.

 

[Walker11]

Kansas is weird in that Self develops 4 star guys into pros but hasn't had a great track record with 1 and dones. Which makes sense when you consider his system and coaching philosophy. Morris Bros, Arthur, Robinson, Withey, Alridge, Chalmers etc. weren't sure fire pros coming out of HS and are all making very good money. But then you have 2 of the biggest 1&done flips as well.

 

[Walker11]

Drummond is about the least riskiest player you could draft.

In retrospect, sure, but not to GMs who had him slip to 9. Which is clearly absurd. The whole lacking motivation storyline was dumb when you are talking about the one of the freakiest athletes in the world.

 

[upstater]

Drummond is about the least riskiest player you could draft.

I'm looking at it from the GM's viewpoint. GMs thought he was such a risk that they passed on him. It's the unknowable fact of having a gifted hyper-talented kid who has not yet shown that he can do it at a high level. He gets drafted on potential. For some GMs it is obviously worth it. For others, they pass. Maybe one of the guys who passed was the guy who drafted Stromile Swift or Brandon Bender.

 

[upstater]

I think you are confusing Swift with Kwame Brown. Swift was unheralded, I think a 3 star actually. All the guys you mentioned like Skal, Vonleh, Noel, Muhammed etc. were drafted because of their elite physical traits. Which is also why they were hyped as high school recruits. And @James post about Selby and Alexander contradicts your point. Selby was number 1 overall on Rivals and went in the second round after his first year.

Maybe I'm confusing Swift with someone else, not Kwame. I'm talking about several of those high schoolers that flamed out more than a decade ago.

Selby also wiped out in college. For a variety of reasons. But the James Young pick? Ainge picked him because of his physical skills and he was a frequent focus during Kentucky games. If he was James Young, ranked 25, and he went to Florida, leaving after one year, he doesn't get drafted in the first round.

 

[Walker11]

Maybe I'm confusing Swift with someone else, not Kwame. I'm talking about several of those high schoolers that flamed out more than a decade ago.

Selby also wiped out in college. For a variety of reasons. But the James Young pick? Ainge picked him because of his physical skills and he was a frequent focus during Kentucky games. If he was James Young, ranked 25, and he went to Florida, leaving after one year, he doesn't get drafted in the first round.

You are wrong about Young but I know I won't convince you otherwise. A better example would have been Teague.

 

[James]

Nobody in the league is like Karl Anthony Towns.

i was thinking about a witty response bringing up jokic, but then i realized KAT is one of my favorite players in the league and well on his way to be a top ten player THIS season. i just think that draft, the one right after our chip, was so overrated its not even funny... parker and wiggins were suppose to be franchise center pieces and that aint happening. other than jokic and rod hood that draft was one of the worst EVER.

 

[superjohn]

In retrospect, sure, but not to GMs who had him slip to 9. Which is clearly absurd. The whole lacking motivation storyline was dumb when you are talking about the one of the freakiest athletes in the world.

They blew it, he wasn't risky. There has only been a few guys to come along with his size, athleticism and hands. 6 GM's need to be fired over that lapse in judgement.

 

[James]

Kansas is weird in that Self develops 4 star guys into pros but hasn't had a great track record with 1 and dones. Which makes sense when you consider his system and coaching philosophy. Morris Bros, Arthur, Robinson, Withey, Alridge, Chalmers etc. weren't sure fire pros coming out of HS and are all making very good money. But then you have 2 of the biggest 1&done flips as well.

if i'm not mistaken chalmers was a 5 star burger boy out of alaska. sherron collins another 5 star. its weird i bring up my skepticism of self with my real hoop junkie friends and they think its blasphemous. I always think about how julian wright was the best hs prospect i saw until he went to kansas and became a garbage man (still a late lotto pick) and flamed out the league.

 

[superjohn]

i was thinking about a witty response bringing up jokic, but then i realized KAT is one of my favorite players in the league and well on his way to be a top ten player THIS season. i just think that draft, the one right after our chip, was so overrated its not even funny... parker and wiggins were suppose to be franchise center pieces and that aint happening. other than jokic and rod hood that draft was one of the worst EVER.

I'm about as high on KAT as any player to come along in a while. His game is different but to me he's the next Tim Duncan. His game and personality are as refined as any player I can remember coming into the league in recent years. Minnesota has a franchise player and some nice surrounding pieces, Thibodeau is so lucky the Bulls fired him.

 

[JimHurley]

It's pretty interesting how mum hd is on mentioning KO or uconn, I remember earlier in the year he deleted a post on gram saying to "go follow my boy *jalens ig handle* and Jalen had a post saying the same but deleted his as well. I mean he retweets when crean visits him but not the three times this month KO did? Wouldn't be shocked if he's pulling an Adams and just blue balling us until he is satisfied with his recruitment... this isn't feeling like a wenyen gabriel recruitment at all.

I've thought this for a while. Hopefully true.

 

[Chief00]

If any of us were the coach of a prep team that is basically 2 hours from NYC we would be down their recruiting players to, that doesn't mean he's connected to Syracuse, which is what you implied.

Never implied he was connected with Cuse. He may or may not be but that's not what I said. I said he had NYC connections. Stand by that 100%.
https://putnamscience.myschoolapp.com/ftpimages/895/download/download_1859443.pdf

 

[Chief00]

I think it's a chicken or egg situation, I'm going to entertain this - even though I know you're completely full of s***

High profile AAU programs / handlers or even the college programs themselves create connections with schools like PSA to stash kids to either get their grades up quietly.. That's what happened back in the day with Scoochie Smith, boy could I tell you a tale about who paid for him to go there.. You're overstating coaches connections going in the other direction..

PSA jumped the shark and went from a hiding place to a nationally recognized program over the course of several years and now they're a serious factory..

However, knowing what I know and seeing what I see, let's just say when the music stops, the Putnam Science Academy 30 for 30 is going to be depressing..

PSA is a basketball factory pretending to be a science academy. Can't make this up.

 

[champs99and04]

Maybe I'm confusing Swift with someone else, not Kwame. I'm talking about several of those high schoolers that flamed out more than a decade ago.

Selby also wiped out in college. For a variety of reasons. But the James Young pick? Ainge picked him because of his physical skills and he was a frequent focus during Kentucky games. If he was James Young, ranked 25, and he went to Florida, leaving after one year, he doesn't get drafted in the first round.

I mean, I can see that from both sides. If Ainge has proven anything, it would seem to be that he doesn't give a damn where anybody is ranked out of high school or even in the draft process for the matter. He's gone off the board more than once. I get the sense that he has his players he falls in love with and it has almost nothing to do with hype or anyone else's opinion. He just doesn't seem like that type of guy.

Then again, some of his picks have been consistent with your theory. To your Young example, he was top ten, right? Go back to 2010 and he snagged Avery Bradley who was the #1 player on ESPN. Sullinger was, what, #2 out of high school? Brown was a top five guy, or at least top ten.

I would imagine it is like anything else in that there is a subconscious inclination to skew your own decisions towards the opinions of others. So yeah, in some cases there is probably a correlation between high school ranking and draft position, even accounting for all of the other physical measurables.

 

[UC1985]

PSA is a basketball factory pretending to be a science academy. Can't make this up.

Is this even a serious post? I mean are you honestly saying this?

 

[Thirty Three]

Never implied he was connected with Cuse. He may or may not be but that's not what I said. I said he had NYC connections. Stand by that 100%.
https://putnamscience.myschoolapp.com/ftpimages/895/download/download_1859443.pdf

Actually Chief that's EXACTLY what you said.

djct said...
"Did the putnam coach tweet a picture of how lucky he is to have breakfast with Hopkins? This is a pipe dream for Cuse."

Your direct response (quoting his post)...

PSA coach has NY roots and connection to Cuse. But, also is a fan of Glen Miller's dancing.

Soooo, you never implied he was connected to Cuse, huh?