Good wins, bad wins: who cares?

[FanFromMaine]

I get it. We're not all convinced that UConn will make it to the FF let alone win the championship. But the method by which good wins/bad wins matter seems like an eye test to me. Let me give another option. And yes, it is computer generated so anyone not trusting of algorithms might want to stop reading.

I consult Ken Massey, my bookie, every UConn game to see what the "line" is, what the Huskies are expected to score and what the opponent is expected to score based on season-long data. To Ken and me, a 50 point win over Houston has the same value, no better/no worse, than a 1 point win over Oregon if these were the predicted results. The line today for UConn versus Oregon, Baylor and SC is -9, -7 and -6 respectively, These are reasonable numbers to me given that the other teams have had more consistent seasons than the Huskies.

But UConn seems to have turned a corner offensively and that takes a while to be reflected in season-long data. If, in the next six games UConn continues its offensive surge, the lines posted above do not look insurmountable to me and probably will decrease. If they stumble, well......

PS - Ken has the following top eight teams according his power rating: Oregon, Baylor, SC, MD, CT, Princeton, Stanford and Northwestern. Louisville is ninth by a very slim margin.

 

[willtalk]

Uconn may well have turned an offensive corner, but the teams they level of teams they have done that against makes it generally speculative. Some players tend to do better against lesser competition. That is one of the problems that a team like Uconn faced this year. The final half of their season would not give them the level of competition that would allow them to improve and stay sharp for the playoffs. For a team that was already loaded with experienced talent that would not be much of a problem. However, for a team like the present one, those games against the AAC would neither help to develop or give a realistic gage as to how much they had actually improved. How much they have actually gotten better will only be revealed once they begin to play much better competition back to back.

 

[HuskyNan]

Playing great basketball vs bad teams is better than playing poor basketball vs bad teams. Have people forgotten the Huskies were up by two points at the half over 9-8 Memphis only 6 weeks ago? There has been an obvious improvement in the team.

but to me the most obvious sign of improvement is that we’ve lost all those posters that only come out when the team is playing badly

 

[veryolddog]

I think that the team has improved because it is obvious in watching their play and how decisive the victories have been. But, the fact, the fact is that these victories are against the AAC teams that will not even think about going to the NCAA Tournament or even compete against any top 10 team. The fact is: the margin of victory against these teams is wider. Are they good: yes. Are they the best. That will be defined as they move through the Tournament.

In so far as speaking out positively or negatively about this team, that is a RIGHT. I would hope that this Board supports the Right to Free Speech as long as that speech is not threatening and that Speech offers a dialogue for a decent debate. I may not like what you say, but you have and I will support your RIGHT to say it.

 

[eebmg]

Our team is definitely peaking and while I would like to have played a few Q1 level games to see if this is our new reality, all I really want to see is win or lose (to an arguably better team), we do not have that deer in headlights look that freezes us and turns us into one on one individuals forcing Crystal to take 35' ft shots with 2 seconds on the clock.

 

[Tonyc]

Well reading the posts and threads it is very apparent to me that some posters need to see UConn prove themselves in big games. I think the team has turned the corner some of you dont. I see a different team then a few weeks ago, some of you want to see more proof. Some of you want to see our big 3 play big in big games. Well the teams execution has changed from dependence of 3 scorers dribbling and creating their own shots to a passing team depending on everybody.

Maybe Im seeing something different then some fans. UConn has had 5 players scoring in double figures which they hadnt been doing. UConns defense is shutting opponents down. Liv is not getting in foul trouble. Anna is scoring in double figures. Griff is scoring and making her free throws. By passing the damm ball we're finding open team mates who are scoring and we're scoring more points. These are thing we hadnt been doing. We're doing them now. Thats why I feel this is a FF team.

 

[BBallF]

It is a much improved team offensively and defensively but the point is well taken that you can't project what you are seeing now and try to apply that to the top 3 teams that we lost to previously in some future NCAA game. It's a form of mental gymnastics that is pure speculation.

I think the key point is this. We have improved more than any other team in all the right ways. It's not just the tangible product in plays, passes, defense and shots, it's the fact that they are talking about having fun again, embracing each other regularly and smiling now on a regular basis.

We were talking about them finding an identity for a long time. Well, they found it through their defense which has turned into this running, unselfish, better shooting team that looks a lot like UCONN to me. It just took a long time to get there. Don't think our women aren't aware of the history and tradition that goes with that uniform. As Meg said recently, she knows now that she and the team has to be the aggressor from the opening tip off. In other words, a sense of urgency which was missing before.

Remember what Geno said a long time ago. This is a team without a returning All American that starts only two upper classmen. They needed a longer maturation process. The growth has been enjoyable to watch. I just don't know what to do with myself until Saturday. I have UWBWS. UCONN WOMENS BASKETBALL WITHDRAWAL SYNDROME. Are there any known cures?

 

[bluedevil]

Play poker against a fifth grader you win..play poker in Las Vegas you lose.....

 

[eebmg]

It is a much improved team offensively and defensively but the point is well taken that you can't project what you are seeing now and try to apply that to the top 3 teams that we lost to previously in some future NCAA game. It's a form of mental gymnastics that is pure speculation. I think the key point is this. We have improved more than any other team in all the right ways. It's not just the tangible product in plays, passes, defense and shots, it's the fact that they are talking about having fun again, embracing each other regularly and smiling now on a regular basis. We were talking about them finding an identity for a long time. Well, they found it through their defense which has turned into this running, unselfish, better shooting team that looks a lot like UCONN to me. It just took a long time to get there. Don't think our women aren't aware of the history and tradition that goes with that uniform. As Meg said recently, she knows now that she and the team has to be the aggressor from the opening tip off. In other words, a sense of urgency which was missing before. Remember what Geno said a long time ago. This is a team without a returning All American that starts only two upper classmen. They needed a longer maturation process. The growth has been enjoyable to watch. I just don't know what to do with myself until Saturday. I have UWBWS. UCONN WOMENS BASKETBALL WITHDRAWAL SYNDROME. Are there any known cures?

Alot of great points. Of course the cynic may say we have improved more than other teams because we were simply not playing at any level or style consistent with UConn and had much more room to improve

But I also take seriously that there is no program that puts more pressure on their players than UConn. The players are dealing with more than a season, they do not want to let the history of the program down and that affects players


Finally, dealing with UConn withdrawal, just watch the 4 NC games (and maybe the 60+ pt blowout of Miss. ST) during the Stewie years and follow that up with Paige Chasers.

 

[oldude]

Forget about MOV’s, Massey ratings, who beat whom and when. This relatively young UConn team is considerably better than they were earlier in the season, and even 4 weeks ago for one simple reason. The Huskies now have a seven player rotation where everyone knows what they’re supposed to do and then does it.

Geno and his staff are simply the best coaching staff in America at preparing a team for a run in March. That doesn’t mean that UConn will make it back to another FF this year or be able to beat one of the top 3 teams if they run into them in the tournament. What it means is that UConn is going to be a very tough out for any team they face for the remainder of the season.

A word to the wise. Never underestimate Geno Auriemma.

 

[HuskyNan]

I think that the team has improved because it is obvious in watching their play and how decisive the victories have been. But, the fact, the fact is that these victories are against the AAC teams that will not even think about going to the NCAA Tournament or even compete against any top 10 team. The fact is: the margin of victory against these teams is wider. Are they good: yes. Are they the best. That will be defined as they move through the Tournament.

In so far as speaking out positively or negatively about this team, that is a RIGHT. I would hope that this Board supports the Right to Free Speech as long as that speech is not threatening and that Speech offers a dialogue for a decent debate. I may not like what you say, but you have and I will support your RIGHT to say it.

Sigh. Once again -
The First Amendment

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

I’m not the government. I can lock threads and delete posts. Read the terms of service you agreed to when you set up your account

 

[eebmg]

Nice quote from Mike's excellent article

Mike Anthony: This feels like the most complicated year of Geno Auriemma’s UConn career

As Geno Auriemma sat in the Staples Center Feb. 24, waiting to speak before gathered basketball royalty and an international audience at the Kobe Bryant memorial service, he was initially overcome …

www.courant.com

“These last 10 days, 12 days, I think my team and I have come to an understanding on how this is going to go,” Auriemma said. “We’re living happily right now. There’s a better understanding of what I want, and I have a better understanding of them and what they can do. And some years you get that on October 15 and you get on that wave and just ride it into the shore. Other years, you’re constantly trying to keep from getting slammed.”

 

[Bama fan]

It is a much improved team offensively and defensively but the point is well taken that you can't project what you are seeing now and try to apply that to the top 3 teams that we lost to previously in some future NCAA game. It's a form of mental gymnastics that is pure speculation.

I think the key point is this. We have improved more than any other team in all the right ways. It's not just the tangible product in plays, passes, defense and shots, it's the fact that they are talking about having fun again, embracing each other regularly and smiling now on a regular basis.

We were talking about them finding an identity for a long time. Well, they found it through their defense which has turned into this running, unselfish, better shooting team that looks a lot like UCONN to me. It just took a long time to get there. Don't think our women aren't aware of the history and tradition that goes with that uniform. As Meg said recently, she knows now that she and the team has to be the aggressor from the opening tip off. In other words, a sense of urgency which was missing before.

Remember what Geno said a long time ago. This is a team without a returning All American that starts only two upper classmen. They needed a longer maturation process. The growth has been enjoyable to watch. I just don't know what to do with myself until Saturday. I have UWBWS. UCONN WOMENS BASKETBALL WITHDRAWAL SYNDROME. Are there any known cures?

Try replays and good whiskey! If one does not help. the other will.

 

[DefenseBB]

Uconn may well have turned an offensive corner, but the teams they level of teams they have done that against makes it generally speculative. Some players tend to do better against lesser competition. That is one of the problems that a team like Uconn faced this year. The final half of their season would not give them the level of competition that would allow them to improve and stay sharp for the playoffs. For a team that was already loaded with experienced talent that would not be much of a problem. However, for a team like the present one, those games against the AAC would neither help to develop or give a realistic gage as to how much they had actually improved. How much they have actually gotten better will only be revealed once they begin to play much better competition back to back.

First off IT’S UConn or UCONN with a capital C. Please edit your auto fix as this is completely disrespectful on OUR BOARD!
After that say what you what with whatever logic you feel supports your perspective.

It was noted in another thread that UConn has only had 1 win in single digits this year, while other “P5” teams have multiple single digit wins against bad competition so what you say is not Unique to only UConn and is why we feel our team is peaking.

 

[Bajan Best]

LOL, The potential of this current bunch of huskies as a team is yet to reach anywhere close to their maximum potential, though apparently getting closer and closer as we approach the big dance.

They will always be some negative individuals who will look for anything negative about UCONN to focus on, and that is just fine by me... Bottom line though, I'll bet there isn't a single team if they are being honest, that wishes to face UCONN on their way to a National Championship, especially with the way they have been scoring in the last couple of games. You all can debate whether that scoring was against cupcakes or not, when obviously those same cupcakes were given UCONN a challenge earlier in the season.

Every single team this year knows they are not invincible because they have all lost at least one game. To be honest I like when we are considered the underdog, in some ways that take some of the pressure off the players shoulders.

I just hope and believe that this UCONN team will continue to improve throughout the tournament, to eventually firing on all cylinders and silence all those who have already counted them out this year... LET's go Huskies!!!!!

 

[DefenseBB]

....I just don't know what to do with myself until Saturday. I have UWBWS. UCONN WOMENS BASKETBALL WITHDRAWAL SYNDROME. Are there any known cures?

Alcohol, lots of alcohol...

 

[Steelerone]

Our team is definitely peaking and while I would like to have played a few Q1 level games to see if this is our new reality, all I really want to see is win or lose (to an arguably better team), we do not have that deer in headlights look that freezes us and turns us into one on one individuals forcing Crystal to take 35' ft shots with 2 seconds on the clock.

Play poker against a fifth grader you win..play poker in Las Vegas you lose.....

I understand what you are saying BD. However, the schedule is made up years in advance and a team that is top 10 today will not necessarily maintain that status. Oklahoma, Duke and Rutgers are perfect examples. I do know that the athletic department attempts to schedule any top team available but that is a two way street and to be perfectly honest I'm not sure every top ten coach wants to play us.

 

[HuskyNan]

First off IT’S UConn or UCONN with a capital C. Please edit your auto fix as this is completely disrespectful on OUR BOARD!
After that say what you what with whatever logic you feel supports your perspective.

Chill. It’s not disrespect, it’s autocorrect. I did the same many times until I added UConn to my iPhone library

 

[Conndog]

And, not only are the women playing better, but the men's team is generating excitement with newcomers and veterans playing great together. Just like the women, it seems that players just know their roles and what they should be doing, and what I'm seeing is Happy Basketball!

 

[DefenseBB]

Chill. It’s not disrespect, it’s autocorrect. I did the same many times until I added UConn to my iPhone library

Well, let us say we disagree on that, I am allowed to disagree on perspectives with you, right? Also, I did point that -

"Please edit your auto fix"...at it was in my note. ​

 

[meyers7]

Well, let us say we disagree on that, I am allowed to disagree on perspectives with you, right?

 

[MSGRET]

Play poker against a fifth grader you win..play poker in Las Vegas you lose.....

Not necessarily, so far over the past 6 months I'm doing very well with the cards and the last two years I'm way ahead in my winnings.

 

[msf22b]

"Good wins, bad wins: who cares ?"

And I thought the thread was to be about whether the old, presumptive style of UConn, "beautiful"
basketball was relevant or even pertinent in this post-season.

And I have a strong views on the matter:

I hope to constantly see some traditional UConn magnificence right up until that very last weekend in New Orleans.

After that, I'll take wins any way we can get them (ugly included)...

Makes me recall the first Griner/Baylor game at Gampel? (XL)? What a mess; outplayed the whole evening, some freshman kid (Bria) hit a coupla 3's near the end and amazing we were on top when the horn sounded...I could hardly believe it. We were all shocked. How did we steal that one? But surely, it could happen again.

(Wasn't that transition sequence ending with Aubrey's layup really something )?
Now that's beautiful BB.

 

[Jingo]

Well reading the posts and threads it is very apparent to me that some posters need to see UConn prove themselves in big games. I think the team has turned the corner some of you dont. I see a different team then a few weeks ago, some of you want to see more proof. Some of you want to see our big 3 play big in big games. Well the teams execution has changed from dependence of 3 scorers dribbling and creating their own shots to a passing team depending on everybody.

Maybe Im seeing something different then some fans. UConn has had 5 players scoring in double figures which they hadnt been doing. UConns defense is shutting opponents down. Liv is not getting in foul trouble. Anna is scoring in double figures. Griff is scoring and making her free throws. By passing the damm ball we're finding open team mates who are scoring and we're scoring more points. These are thing we hadnt been doing. We're doing them now. Thats why I feel this is a FF team.

In the early part of the season, it was 'Big 3' .. or .. 'Core 4' .. i m glad that narrative has changed and we have moved on to team basketball. Our major weakness is that we only have one Liv .. hard to play without her, eh?

 

[willtalk]

I think it is not just the Big Three that need to be factored in, but the teams in the tier below them. This season especially, the team are going to be vulnerable to anyone that is close to them on their strength level. In the tournament, they probably will face at least one team that fits that criteria before they get out of the first round. The major issue with not having played anyone except DePaul ( who they matched up really well with) is that UConn really has not played the teams between the top three and those between say 4 and 20. Every team has on and off days and if you are caught on one of those off days playing a team close to your ability generally leads to a loss.

My point is that for the most part UConn is still much of a mystery. There has been nothing to gear them against the teams in the level below Baylor, SC and Oregon. What I don't understand is how so many fans can just assume that the only challenge they would have is from the top three teams. I personally think that there are still plenty more teams out there who they would have difficulty getting by. It will all depend on matchups and the any-given-night factor.

 

[willtalk]

First off IT’S UConn or UCONN with a capital C. Please edit your auto fix as this is completely disrespectful on OUR BOARD!
After that say what you what with whatever logic you feel supports your perspective.

It was noted in another thread that UConn has only had 1 win in single digits this year, while other “P5” teams have multiple single digit wins against bad competition so what you say is not Unique to only UConn and is why we feel our team is peaking.

I have no idea what it was that I said along those lines, I don't think I ever mentioned single-digit or any point spread for that matter ever. I think the subject of playing in the ACC hurting UConn in respect of preparing them for the tournament has been brought up on this site for years now. It is just that this season it might be even more impactful than in the past because the team has not been as obviously dominant.

As to my UConn spelling, I don't even know if that was even an auto spell or just a slip on my part. It often depends if I am on Facebook on my large screen or a small one. My eyes are garbage ( need operations ) and often things get by me if they are not picked up by auto spell. I would also add that, knowing my bad spelling and tendencies I have probably done the same thing in some of my other posts. I suspect that it was called to task this time because the type of post it was in was not agreeable. Although because of your inclusion of the point spread statement, I also suspect you might have integrated my post with someone else's. No biggie I have done the same sometimes after ready a lot of posts..

 

[jabstep]

Besides our defensive intensity which has helped our transitional offense, our offense is better now because we now have 5 starters who can score points. That was our problem against the big three and other top teams we will face depending on the bracket we end up in. I can see how they all trust each other and believe in each other. They know we have 4 legitimate 3 point shooters and Liv has started to extend out. The backdoor cuts have been better. Liv's passing from the high post is much better. Our bench is better with Aubrey finding more and more ways to contribute and Kyla looks a lot better since recovering from her foot injury. Let's go Huskies!!!!!

 

[Longtime fan]

I get it. We're not all convinced that UConn will make it to the FF let alone win the championship. But the method by which good wins/bad wins matter seems like an eye test to me. Let me give another option. And yes, it is computer generated so anyone not trusting of algorithms might want to stop reading.

I consult Ken Massey, my bookie, every UConn game to see what the "line" is, what the Huskies are expected to score and what the opponent is expected to score based on season-long data. To Ken and me, a 50 point win over Houston has the same value, no better/no worse, than a 1 point win over Oregon if these were the predicted results. The line today for UConn versus Oregon, Baylor and SC is -9, -7 and -6 respectively, These are reasonable numbers to me given that the other teams have had more consistent seasons than the Huskies.

But UConn seems to have turned a corner offensively and that takes a while to be reflected in season-long data. If, in the next six games UConn continues its offensive surge, the lines posted above do not look insurmountable to me and probably will decrease. If they stumble, well......

PS - Ken has the following top eight teams according his power rating: Oregon, Baylor, SC, MD, CT, Princeton, Stanford and Northwestern. Louisville is ninth by a very slim margin.

I think this is fascinating. I am "blown away" by his ranking of Princeton. I know their record, but the ivy league is really a weak sister in women's basketball. The NCAA, historically, does not give much credit to the ivies, which is why I still believe Princeton will have a low seed, in whatever region they are placed. I do respect their new coach, and that can make a difference. But if they win a single game ( much less two ) in the big dance , I will be shocked ( but also really pleased ). I want the ivies to do well ( I am an alum of one ), but I won't become a believer until I see it happen. I know the Harvard women ( once ranked 16 in their region ) did upset Stanford ( number 1 ) ...but that was a long while back. Since then, I don't recall an ivy team ( women ) winning any game in the NCAA tourney. Though I have not done the research to confirm.

 

[ed4ourgirls]

Play poker against a fifth grader you win..play poker in Las Vegas you lose.....

I get beat by fifth graders.

I'm not going anywhere near Vegas.

 

[BostonBay]

AAC was an absolute joke this year (as in most years, but this year was the worst). Watching the games, I had the feeling UConn starters were playing against the "JV" team in a scrimmage. UConn had no close games with them - the game on the line with a few minutes left.

For those who say its doesnt matter, I strong disagree. Young athletes get better by building physical & mental "muscle memory." They have little of that right now in terms of how they should play down the stretch in a close game. The team collapsed in the 4th quarter the last 3 years in the FF. I expect that same result in the E8 this year. Hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.