Going forward………
- Thread starter CONN78SEJ
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Hence my point, thanks Medic! The staff probably told Zion they wouldn't take another QB in his class because they thought he was the better of the two. Hopefully that is how it plays out in time.
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I'd love to see those guys on wheel routes too, but it won't matter if the QB doesn't release the ball to them. ZT is hesitant to pull the trigger on anything vertical it seems.
hardcorehusky
Lost patience with the garden variety UConn fan
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I have watched 3 of their games this yr. Warner has made 3 nice throws downfield (3 more than ZT), but has thrown some awful picks and hasn't really generated much offense. I am not clamoring for him to be here. And he wasn't the starter out of camp.
I'd like to believe we've had a talent upgrade in coaching. And hopefully that will result in talent upgrade in recruiting. IMO ever since 1aa-1a move, a number of recruits need a couple of years of practice to reach the skill levels of those schools that traditionally are stocked with 3*-4* recruits. Its not a knock on the athletes or the coaches ........it is what it is. I'd like to believe everyone is trying to the best of the abilities. If/when Mora is successful in attracting athletes with a better base line of talent to begin with, UConns ratings will improve.........it will be a long road to get there.
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FIU is 206 and Umass is 207. CCSU, which took us into the 4th QTR when we had Carter and some others we are now without, is 247. At this point, I do not feel at all confident about either FIU or UMass. Hopeful but not confident. And forget BC, Ball State, Army and Liberty. Our only chance at another W is to develop at least a marginally effective passing game, so let's start throwing the ball on Saturday and let the chips fall where they may.
FfldCntyFan
Texas: Property of UConn Men's Basketball program
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This could be part of why we haven't seen ZT attempt many downfield passes. His first (against Utah St) was picked (most likely because he never saw the defensive back) and he may be a little gun shy now.
I really can't take too much from the last 2 games. Last year's team would have been blown out too maybe by less or more. The injuries at the skill offense positions have ruined the first half of the year - it turns out Utah State wasn't really that good and UConn almost won that game (or was at least competitive until the end)... Fresno State is better than their record and even coming cross country this game won't be competitive. Second half is about the players who remain healthy improving.
As for the "throw the ball downfield" thing - I watched the Syracuse game in person and there was probably 2 balls that weren't thrown down field that could have been - no one is open. No defense is afraid of getting burned deep so everyone is packed in. Do you want Zion to throw a ball 2-3 times a game where one guy running a post is double covered so he has to be over thrown by 10 feet to avoid an interception? Warner has players to throw to. Temple also hasn't played UConn's schedule. The next 2 weeks they play road games at Memphis (points will be scored by both teams) and UCF... let's see what that looks like. Big difference between Rutgers and Duke vs. Michigan and NC State - and Syracuse is far better than I expected.
Liberty and BC will both blow UConn out at home which will be frustrating - Army isn't as good as last year but they will be all in running their preview for Navy game and I expected it to be ugly too. FIU, Ball State and UMass have all taken very bad losses too. All three games are winnable. If they win 2, that's two more FBS wins than they've had in awhile and 3 times more wins than last year.
As for the "throw the ball downfield" thing - I watched the Syracuse game in person and there was probably 2 balls that weren't thrown down field that could have been - no one is open. No defense is afraid of getting burned deep so everyone is packed in. Do you want Zion to throw a ball 2-3 times a game where one guy running a post is double covered so he has to be over thrown by 10 feet to avoid an interception? Warner has players to throw to. Temple also hasn't played UConn's schedule. The next 2 weeks they play road games at Memphis (points will be scored by both teams) and UCF... let's see what that looks like. Big difference between Rutgers and Duke vs. Michigan and NC State - and Syracuse is far better than I expected.
Liberty and BC will both blow UConn out at home which will be frustrating - Army isn't as good as last year but they will be all in running their preview for Navy game and I expected it to be ugly too. FIU, Ball State and UMass have all taken very bad losses too. All three games are winnable. If they win 2, that's two more FBS wins than they've had in awhile and 3 times more wins than last year.
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And Colorado is ranked below UConn this week according to The Athletic 131. Two places below. (There is a link in this morning's NYT.)
BL claims Uconn 170 on the Sagarin. Lol
“Sagarin”, sounds like a prescription drug. Lol
I think Warner was looking to land at a power 5 school and settled on Temple. Mara most likely taken him even after he got Zion if Warner was interested.
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Ranking 131 college football teams after Week 4: Minnesota makes big leap
Where every college football team ranks after Week 4, with the Gophers making a move into the top 20 following their win at Michigan State.
theathletic.com
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Most likely correct since that ranking includes FCS.
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These last two weeks have sucked, but at the very least, the team is now battle tested against two excellent teams and a better than expected Syracuse before entering the easiest part of their schedule.
What's important is identifying FBS talent on the roster so can have positive momentum entering the offseason:
What's important is identifying FBS talent on the roster so can have positive momentum entering the offseason:
- With Robertson on the shelf, we don't need Turner to be "the man" this year, but we at least need a quarterback to provide depth and competition for next season.
- Houston and Rosa are in a tough spot, but they most LOVE the opportunity. Some positive progress from them would be nice.
- Amongst the WRs, we got something between Turner and Clercius. Would love to see a little more from Harrison and Williams do a little more.
- I'm expecting the most growth in the OL against weaker D1 squads.
- On defense, we have a stud in Mitchell. Let's hope the juniors and sophomores keep developing and stay healthy.
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Not disputing it’s 170, but to claim it’s 170 and “withholding judgment on Mora” while so many key starters are out with injuries doesn’t seem like something a UConn fan would want to advertise.
You do know Victor Rosa played quarterback in high school at Bristol Central. There is no QB named Robertson playing for UConn.
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Good God, what's your problem. Sagarin rates all of Division 1 together, not just FBS.
I stated a fact. Facts exist even when you don't like them or the person telling them to you. Even in America.
FfldCntyFan
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Sagarin ratings have been around for quite some time (I believe ~4 1/2 decades).
He's either a mathematician or statistician who applied a chess rankings algorithm (ELO) to sports. I believe he has his own algorithm and only uses ELO to compare outcomes but I could be wrong there.
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Is Savarin the closest there is to kenpom in college football?
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No. He isn't comparing how clubs do different aspects of their sport. Just who you play, whether you win or lose, where and by how much. Kenpom is much more detailed.
I'd love to know how his stuff actually works because I've never figured it out and would like a method that I don't feel is just a slap together method.
As an active research scientist in this field i find it unlikely Sagarin has a method of analysis that is beyond me. Then its just a matter of what kind of groundings seemed "good enough" to him. Same with Massey.
BTW, Sagarin and massey have more than one measure with their rankings, some score based, some not. Now I don't know how they try to predict game spread or other things.
We more or less know that their methods are some form of binary regression with some fudging. How much of it is like Kalman filter where you advance previous inputs? How much is it like maximum-likelihood? Both are kind of "I don't know".
If this is above peoples heads... fine, it is what it is. I've wanted a method of my own since I entered grad school and i'm here 18 years later with nothing to show for it. I could create something that's kind of a hodge-podge but I wouldn't believe in it.
That being said, the rankings have the advantage in that they can compare all the results others aren't willing to compare. This has the biggest impact in college basketball when certain conferences have up years. We're also in early-season football. You technically can't compare teams that haven't played each other through a chain of games. They're just flat out unrelated. So you're then making statements based on past information or blatant fudging. I don't feel like rankings can even really make sense until 6 or 7 games in.
The ideal of rankings is it is able to process all events under a blatant supposition that "only wins matter" or "only score matters" and all other nuances are lost for good or for bad. They aren't perfect, they don't have secret knowledge. Ideally the ranking is just a balance of their competition and their win rate. You're below most of your losses and above most of your wins in the balancing act.
I'll shut up now. I know way too much about this stuff and enough to know they're all limited. We suck, we know we suck, is it 170 vs. 160? Well, that's why the play the games. Only way to find out.
Realistically speaking, the season is dumpster fire. Our skills guys are hurt and the staff is resistant to letting the guys try to make plays outside a bubble of conservatism. It’s currently Edsall 3.0. Maybe things change next year. Maybe not. Just more of the same.
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No, but it is still very good coffee.
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Agreed. None of them use enough information. Is KRACH better than Pairwise in hockey? You'd like to think so because RPI and Pairwise, which uses RPI as one component, are just feel good formulas with no real study or theory going into them. At least KRACH has Bradley-Terry behind it although it ignores a lot of available data too. It would be interesting to see what KRACH says about CFB at the end of the season.
Wellington Mara? Kate Mara?
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One thing...
Preseason polls like AP are dumber than ever.
It only took four games — and two losses apiece — but Miami and Florida have both fallen out of the top 25.
Now with the transfer portal running on overdrive and teams picking up as many transfers during the offseason as they are recruiting freshmen out of high school, it’s really ridiculous that we expect sportswriters or coaches to have any idea of what teams are going to look like from year to year.
Voters seem to be incredibly slow to make major adjustments to their ballots based on evidence early in a season. If a writer has School A ranked No. 5 in the preseason, he’s not going to want to drop that team out of the poll entirely a week or two later because it makes his preseason poll look so far off the mark.
Preseason polls like AP are dumber than ever.
It only took four games — and two losses apiece — but Miami and Florida have both fallen out of the top 25.
Now with the transfer portal running on overdrive and teams picking up as many transfers during the offseason as they are recruiting freshmen out of high school, it’s really ridiculous that we expect sportswriters or coaches to have any idea of what teams are going to look like from year to year.
Voters seem to be incredibly slow to make major adjustments to their ballots based on evidence early in a season. If a writer has School A ranked No. 5 in the preseason, he’s not going to want to drop that team out of the poll entirely a week or two later because it makes his preseason poll look so far off the mark.
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What you can track is the effectiveness of a rating system across various measures...straight up wins, smallest deviation from actual game scores, against the spread, etc...
Sagarin does well if you isolate the second half of the season..(his data builds).
Sagarin does well if you isolate the second half of the season..(his data builds).
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Would moronic imbecile cover his problem?
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