Game Analysis - UConn vs Arkansas

[cferraro04]

This match-up with #15 Arkansas will present a different challenge than what #25 Tennessee presented to UConn. I believe this match-up challenge is actually more to UConn's liking in that while a back-court like Arkansas, which arguably could be the best back-court in the country is a difficult challenge it plays more favorably into UConn's strengths than Tennessee's size challenge. I believe teams that are as long as TN will always present a very young team like UConn a very difficult challenge.

Arkansas presents a double challenge to UConn because they are an extremely mature team starting 4 seniors, three of which are red shirt (5th year) seniors and a sophomore...while UConn starts three juniors (one of which is a red shirt 4th year) junior, one sophomore and one freshman.

Arkansas' tallest starter is 6'1...this should give UConn an advantage in the middle and I would expect UConn to pound the ball into the middle giving Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aubrey Griffin a lot of opportunities to get their hands on the ball. Arkansas will rely on their speed to get the ball up fast and try and exploit the transition game.

UConn and Arkansas have one common opponent Tennessee. Arkansas was able to put up 83 points against Tennessee while UConn only put up 67 points. Given the fact that UConn players played under their season averages and Tennessee's size as well as the fact that the game was played away in front of a hostile crowd (albeit small) may have played a role in the low score. I don't know what to make of the differences displayed in their only common opponent.

I should add what I believe the outcome will be...UConn 81; Arkansas 74

Taylah Thomas vs Olivia Nelson-Ododa - This match-up pits 6'1" Taylah against 6'5" Olivia. Taylah hasn't proven to be an offensive threat so, I expect a huge advantage to go to Olivia. Evynn Barnum will split time with Taylah but together their point total don't equal Oliva's offensive output... With Olivia's height advantage I would look to her having a very productive game. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Chelsea Dungee vs Aubrey Griffin - Chelsea is a scoring machine but, given Aubrey's athleticism and her offensive effectiveness in the past 3-4 games...I do not think the difference will be that noticeable. In fact, Aubrey's defensive ability might prove to be challenging to Chelsea and she may be held below her season's average. EVEN

Destiny Slocum vs Christyn Williams - This is a great match-up. Destiny averages 15.2 points per game and 4.8 rebounds while Christyn Williams is averaging 15.6 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game...they are technically the same player...however, Christyn has been of late embracing her role as the defacto leader of her team. I expect this match-up to a great defensive match-up...with each player trying to keep the other in front of them. I expect that UConn's pass first offense will play well in the half court while Arkansas's transition game will play well for them. In this match-up I will give a SLIGHT EDGE TO UCONN

Amber Ramirez vs Evina Westbrook - These players are statistically evenly matched with Evina being a little bit better rebounder. However, I think Evina is now beginning to round out into game shape. And I am looking for Evina to edge out her opponent in both offensive output and defensive effort. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Makayla Daniels vs Paige Bueckers - The battle of the underclassman...Sophomore vs Freshman. Thus far Paige has been having a better season statistically than Makayla. I am not sure how recovered Paige will be in this game or even if she will play. If she does play I expect Paige to win this match-up....if Nika Muhl is playing in her place then I would expect Makayla will win this match-up. So, for the time being I am assuming that Paige gets the start. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Coaching - ADVANTAGE UCONN

Intangibles / Location, etc. - Once again UConn is on the Road - ADVANTAGE ARKANSAS

 

[Zanzman]

Chelsea Dungee is a all American or close to it advantage Arkansas

 

[cferraro04]

Chelsea Dungee is a all American or close to it advantage Arkansas

My call is even because I believe Aubrey's athleticism and her defense will hold her under her average. It wouldn't be the first time a would be All American was held under her average. While Chelsea is averaging 21.6 and scored 30 against Tennessee...she needed 36 shots to do it and only went 10 for 36. Aubrey has averaged 15 points per game over the last 4 games since she has gotten into the starting line-up. You may be right that Chelsea is an All American candidate...however, it is always about the match-ups and I think Aubrey if she gets the call to play off of Chelsea (and I don't purport to speak for Geno or his staff) will make life tough on her.

 

[EricSD]

UCONN's problem on defense will be not to foul. Whoever guards Dungee needs to play "deny ball" and try to prevent her from getting the ball in the first place. No matter how good a defender Aubrey is, Dungee will get past her and UCONN will need to rely on team defense, and for Olivia to NOT defend while fouling.

Dungee is averaging over 8 FTA's per game. That means she draws a lot of fouls. Her FT attempts are more than twice that of any other player on her team. She's aggressive and will force the action a lot. I assume Anna is out for the game, and if Paige is good to go, UCONN will have SOME depth, but not a ton.

UCONN has not shown a consistent ability to shut down another team's leading scorer. Even "bad" teams we have played have had a player go off and score 20+. I don't think our defense is elite this year, and given Ark's guards' abilities to get to the FT line, it could be a game where several UCONN players are in foul trouble. Our offense will need to be on point, and vs. Georgetown, it basically sucked.

Let's see if the team listens to the coaches leading up to this game.

 

[huskyd]

Most teams play UConn in the same way. They sag in on Ono and dare the outside shooters to make 3s. So the Huskies need to be enough of a threat from distance to open up the middle. You may see Paige and Evina head for the top of the key for short pull-ups at which both are adept. That, too, will pull players off of LIv and give Buckets a passing lane to our big girl.
This seems a good moment to mention the fearsome screens that Aaliyah sets. A big help whether shooting from afar or finding an opening if Edwards lures her defender away from the basket.
Looking forward to this one.

 

[Jingo]

This match-up with #15 Arkansas will present a different challenge than what #25 Tennessee presented to UConn. I believe this match-up challenge is actually more to UConn's liking in that while a back-court like Arkansas, which arguably could be the best back-court in the country is a difficult challenge it plays more favorably into UConn's strengths than Tennessee's size challenge. I believe teams that are as long as TN will always present a very young team like UConn a very difficult challenge.

Arkansas presents a double challenge to UConn because they are an extremely mature team starting 4 seniors, three of which are red shirt (5th year) seniors and a sophomore...while UConn starts three juniors (one of which is a red shirt 4th year) junior, one sophomore and one freshman.

Arkansas' tallest starter is 6'1...this should give UConn an advantage in the middle and I would expect UConn to pound the ball into the middle giving Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aubrey Griffin a lot of opportunities to get their hands on the ball. Arkansas will rely on their speed to get the ball up fast and try and exploit the transition game.

UConn and Arkansas have one common opponent Tennessee. Arkansas was able to put up 83 points against Tennessee while UConn only put up 67 points. Given the fact that UConn players played under their season averages and Tennessee's size as well as the fact that the game was played away in front of a hostile crowd (albeit small) may have played a role in the low score. I don't know what to make of the differences displayed in their only common opponent.

I should add what I believe the outcome will be...UConn 81; Arkansas 74

Taylah Thomas vs Olivia Nelson-Ododa - This match-up pits 6'1" Taylah against 6'5" Olivia. Taylah hasn't proven to be an offensive threat so, I expect a huge advantage to go to Olivia. Evynn Barnum will split time with Taylah but together their point total don't equal Oliva's offensive output... With Olivia's height advantage I would look to her having a very productive game. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Chelsea Dungee vs Aubrey Griffin - Chelsea is a scoring machine but, given Aubrey's athleticism and her offensive effectiveness in the past 3-4 games...I do not think the difference will be that noticeable. In fact, Aubrey's defensive ability might prove to be challenging to Chelsea and she may be held below her season's average. EVEN

Destiny Slocum vs Christyn Williams - This is a great match-up. Destiny averages 15.2 points per game and 4.8 rebounds while Christyn Williams is averaging 15.6 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game...they are technically the same player...however, Christyn has been of late embracing her role as the defacto leader of her team. I expect this match-up to a great defensive match-up...with each player trying to keep the other in front of them. I expect that UConn's pass first offense will play well in the half court while Arkansas's transition game will play well for them. In this match-up I will give a SLIGHT EDGE TO UCONN

Amber Ramirez vs Evina Westbrook - These players are statistically evenly matched with Evina being a little bit better rebounder. However, I think Evina is now beginning to round out into game shape. And I am looking for Evina to edge out her opponent in both offensive output and defensive effort. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Makayla Daniels vs Paige Bueckers - The battle of the underclassman...Sophomore vs Freshman. Thus far Paige has been having a better season statistically than Makayla. I am not sure how recovered Paige will be in this game or even if she will play. If she does play I expect Paige to win this match-up....if Nika Muhl is playing in her place then I would expect Makayla will win this match-up. So, for the time being I am assuming that Paige gets the start. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Coaching - ADVANTAGE UCONN

Intangibles / Location, etc. - Once again UConn is on the Road - ADVANTAGE ARKANSAS

I have to give the edge to Dungee [scoring machine] over Griffin .. and a big edge for Destiny over Williams. I remember how Destiny hurt us badly a few years ago when she played for Maryland, eh?
Liv will be the key to this game (as usual) both on offense and defense. On offense, she will undoubtedly draw a crowd, giving space to our outside shooters. On defense Liv will anchor our matchup zone which will focus on Destiny & Amber from treyland.
I think playing on foreign soil gives the edge to Arkansas.
But if they [foolishly] single-cover Liv, we win by 10.

 

[Bigboote]

UConn has the #1 defense in the nation per Massey; Arkansas has the #3 offense. Call it a tie.

UConn's offense is #3, Arkansas's defense is #192. (I was just gonna say UConn's offense exists, Arky's defense doesn't, but chickened out.) 'nuff said.

If UConn scores ten more than usual and Arky ten fewer than usual, it's a 20-point victory.

 

[NormanDale]

If Bueckers is out, I have serious doubts about Muhl's ability to guard and stop the dribble penetration of Daniels.

 

[Jingo]

If Bueckers is out, I have serious doubts about Muhl's ability to guard and stop the dribble penetration of Daniels.

We won't be playing man-to-man, eh?

 

[NormanDale]

We won't be playing man-to-man, eh?

You want to play zone against a team that is basically built to penetrate and exploit the gaps of a 2/3 zone?

 

[Vowelguy]

If Bueckers is out, I have serious doubts about Muhl's ability to guard and stop the dribble penetration of Daniels.

If bueckers is out I have serious doubts about staying within 10.

 

[ME Husky Fan]

Hoping Slocum doesn't have a similar night as she did against us a freshman with Maryland. This seemed like light years ago. She on Medicare yet?

 

[Tonyc]

Geno will find a way. With that said Paige has to be at at least 98%. These next 6 games will tell us where we are and we wont have Anna. I expect our defense to shine. Not perfectly shine but it will be intense. We must stay our of foul trouble. We must play patient offense. If we play our game we win by 15+. We've only played 10 games so shouldve beens and couldve beens are still out there. Think about this . IF and I know my other post talks about ifs.... but if Paige shoots 45% and we make 65% of our foul shots we beat Tenn easily. Our defense will shine again Arkansas. If we make our foul shots and Im sure Geno is working with the team on that and if we shoot the ball fairly well and we should because we wont be hoisting up treys we win going away.

 

[eebmg]

Maybe not the Arkansas game, but Saylor may just carve out a place to fill Anna's shoes. The timing seems almost mystical.

 

[Jingo]

You want to play zone against a team that is basically built to penetrate and exploit the gaps of a 2/3 zone?

I think we will be playing an extended matchup zone .. I don't think we can guard them man-to-man .. we'll see, eh?

 

[TheGOAT23]

I’m a little worried about the pick and rolls. I’m not sure if Arkansas uses them in their offense or not. I think that Aaliyah is the only one that does a good job of talking on “D” and hedging the dribbler farther away from the basket to blow up the picks. This is a facet of the game where the Huskies usually give up easy points and commit fouls. I remember a game where Geno told Anna, “keep her over here Anna” as in don’t let her go to the other side of the court. Well, that didn’t happen.

 

[Magy Cannon]

The score was TN 88 AR 73

AR put up 73 not 83 on TN

I think UCONN by around 20 points

 

[pvdoggy]

If bueckers is out I have serious doubts about staying within 10.

Really? This is the same Arkansas that just lost to Georgia a few days ago and I would think Uconn defense would be at least as good as that. Arkansas can easily shoot themselves in or out of a game.

 

[BBallF]

I’m a little worried about the pick and rolls. I’m not sure if Arkansas uses them in their offense or not. I think that Aaliyah is the only one that does a good job of talking on “D” and hedging the dribbler farther away from the basket to blow up the picks. This is a facet of the game where the Huskies usually give up easy points and commit fouls. I remember a game where Geno told Anna, “keep her over here Anna” as in don’t let her go to the other side of the court. Well, that didn’t happen.

Yes, I watched the Georgia game and Arkansas relies heavily on a pick and roll offense usually set up at the elbow. Their center comes out to set the pick trying to create an open lane for driving. As someone mentioned above, we have to shoot 10-15 footers off the bounce. This should however be coupled with 3 point shots in rhythm, drives , and isolations to ONO. If she is doubled the ball has to come out instantly, something she has done well only sporadically. She can easily get them into foul trouble but if she insists on playing defense by bringing her hands and arms down trying to block the shot instead of keeping them up, she may be the one on the bench. Arkansas is not a great defensive rebounding team either so enter Aubrey on put backs. There will be a lot of open shots, but as I indicated in a much earlier thread, our 2 point shooting average is excellent whereas our 3 point percentage is poor. Hence, shoot the pull ups and drive.

 

[HopJim]

You want to play zone against a team that is basically built to penetrate and exploit the gaps of a 2/3 zone?

If you have seen how they drive and move the ball against man to man, the answer is "yes."

 

[Charliebball]

UConn has the #1 defense in the nation per Massey; Arkansas has the #3 offense. Call it a tie.

UConn's offense is #3, Arkansas's defense is #192. (I was just gonna say UConn's offense exists, Arky's defense doesn't, but chickened out.) 'nuff said.

If UConn scores ten more than usual and Arky ten fewer than usual, it's a 20-point victory.

UConn has the number one defense partly because they have played against what appear to be some of the most offensively challenged teams in D1 basketball............this will be a good test to see if they can stick with some talented and experienced offensive players.....

 

[NormanDale]

If you have seen how they drive and move the ball against man to man, the answer is "yes."

Yeah, but you can hedge in man 2 man to stop penetration, impossible to do in a zone.

 

[jazz]

My call is even because I believe Aubrey's athleticism and her defense will hold her under her average. It wouldn't be the first time a would be All American was held under her average. While Chelsea is averaging 21.6 and scored 30 against Tennessee...she needed 36 shots to do it and only went 10 for 36. Aubrey has averaged 15 points per game over the last 4 games since she has gotten into the starting line-up. You may be right that Chelsea is an All American candidate...however, it is always about the match-ups and I think Aubrey if she gets the call to play off of Chelsea (and I don't purport to speak for Geno or his staff) will make life tough on her.

AG would be an AA candidate if she played more although she is getting more minutes with AM out. I expect her to get something like 12 and 8 from here on out. If she can get something like that in big games as well, she could be AA herself. I think she has been an under-utilised and under-rated player.

 

[Golden Husky]

UCONN's problem on defense will be not to foul. Whoever guards Dungee needs to play "deny ball" and try to prevent her from getting the ball in the first place. No matter how good a defender Aubrey is, Dungee will get past her and UCONN will need to rely on team defense, and for Olivia to NOT defend while fouling.

Dungee is averaging over 8 FTA's per game. That means she draws a lot of fouls. Her FT attempts are more than twice that of any other player on her team. She's aggressive and will force the action a lot. I assume Anna is out for the game, and if Paige is good to go, UCONN will have SOME depth, but not a ton.

UCONN has not shown a consistent ability to shut down another team's leading scorer. Even "bad" teams we have played have had a player go off and score 20+. I don't think our defense is elite this year, and given Ark's guards' abilities to get to the FT line, it could be a game where several UCONN players are in foul trouble. Our offense will need to be on point, and vs. Georgetown, it basically sucked.

Let's see if the team listens to the coaches leading up to this game.

Whoever guards Dungee needs to play "deny ball" and try to prevent her from getting the ball in the first place.

Is Kia Nurse available?

 

[Monte]

Right...you have to keep Dungee away from the free throw line. On January 14th, she was 17 for 17 from the line against Florida.

 

[bantamlaker]

Destiny Slocum vs Christyn Williams - This is a great match-up. In this match-up I will give a SLIGHT EDGE TO UCONN

Hoping Slocum doesn't have a similar night as she did against us a freshman with Maryland. This seemed like light years ago. She on Medicare yet?

That was the KLS bucket game but I also remember Slocum leading a Maryland comeback and almost getting the upset. She scored 23 and that was with Gabby, Kia and Napheesa on the court so I worry about what she might be capable of doing. I’ll be quite satisfied if CW matches up well with her.

 

[CL82]

UCONN has not shown a consistent ability to shut down another team's leading scorer. Even "bad" teams we have played have had a player go off and score 20+.

Over the years, Geno has opted to allow that to happen pretty frequently. If one player isn't going to beat you why waste the fouls if you don't have anyone guard them.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Whoever guards Dungee needs to play "deny ball" and try to prevent her from getting the ball in the first place.

Is Kia Nurse available?

She's going to get her touches and shots if you play man.

She's prone to forcing the issue, so if you can defender her with a little size and bring over a shot influencer for help, she's prone to getting very inefficient.

I think they are more dangerous when more players that Dungee are chipping in. So getting her into tunnel vision mode is probably a good result if you can bother her.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

AG would be an AA candidate if she played more although she is getting more minutes with AM out. I expect her to get something like 12 and 8 from here on out. If she can get something like that in big games as well, she could be AA herself. I think she has been an under-utilised and under-rated player.

That's like South Carolina claiming Saxton is an AA candidate. Come on now.

 

[cferraro04]

This match-up with #15 Arkansas will present a different challenge than what #25 Tennessee presented to UConn. I believe this match-up challenge is actually more to UConn's liking in that while a back-court like Arkansas, which arguably could be the best back-court in the country is a difficult challenge it plays more favorably into UConn's strengths than Tennessee's size challenge. I believe teams that are as long as TN will always present a very young team like UConn a very difficult challenge.

Arkansas presents a double challenge to UConn because they are an extremely mature team starting 4 seniors, three of which are red shirt (5th year) seniors and a sophomore...while UConn starts three juniors (one of which is a red shirt 4th year) junior, one sophomore and one freshman.

Arkansas' tallest starter is 6'1...this should give UConn an advantage in the middle and I would expect UConn to pound the ball into the middle giving Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aubrey Griffin a lot of opportunities to get their hands on the ball. Arkansas will rely on their speed to get the ball up fast and try and exploit the transition game.

UConn and Arkansas have one common opponent Tennessee. Arkansas was able to put up 83 points against Tennessee while UConn only put up 67 points. Given the fact that UConn players played under their season averages and Tennessee's size as well as the fact that the game was played away in front of a hostile crowd (albeit small) may have played a role in the low score. I don't know what to make of the differences displayed in their only common opponent.

I should add what I believe the outcome will be...UConn 81; Arkansas 74

Taylah Thomas vs Olivia Nelson-Ododa - This match-up pits 6'1" Taylah against 6'5" Olivia. Taylah hasn't proven to be an offensive threat so, I expect a huge advantage to go to Olivia. Evynn Barnum will split time with Taylah but together their point total don't equal Oliva's offensive output... With Olivia's height advantage I would look to her having a very productive game. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Chelsea Dungee vs Aubrey Griffin - Chelsea is a scoring machine but, given Aubrey's athleticism and her offensive effectiveness in the past 3-4 games...I do not think the difference will be that noticeable. In fact, Aubrey's defensive ability might prove to be challenging to Chelsea and she may be held below her season's average. EVEN

Destiny Slocum vs Christyn Williams - This is a great match-up. Destiny averages 15.2 points per game and 4.8 rebounds while Christyn Williams is averaging 15.6 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game...they are technically the same player...however, Christyn has been of late embracing her role as the defacto leader of her team. I expect this match-up to a great defensive match-up...with each player trying to keep the other in front of them. I expect that UConn's pass first offense will play well in the half court while Arkansas's transition game will play well for them. In this match-up I will give a SLIGHT EDGE TO UCONN

Amber Ramirez vs Evina Westbrook - These players are statistically evenly matched with Evina being a little bit better rebounder. However, I think Evina is now beginning to round out into game shape. And I am looking for Evina to edge out her opponent in both offensive output and defensive effort. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Makayla Daniels vs Paige Bueckers - The battle of the underclassman...Sophomore vs Freshman. Thus far Paige has been having a better season statistically than Makayla. I am not sure how recovered Paige will be in this game or even if she will play. If she does play I expect Paige to win this match-up....if Nika Muhl is playing in her place then I would expect Makayla will win this match-up. So, for the time being I am assuming that Paige gets the start. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Coaching - ADVANTAGE UCONN

Intangibles / Location, etc. - Once again UConn is on the Road - ADVANTAGE ARKANSAS

The above analysis is based on a man to man defense...and assumed the match-ups I selected are actually UConn staff approved match-ups. There is, of course, a very good chance that UConn will play a zone defense for all or a good part of the game. There is also that UConn will play a hybrid of both zone and man to man. Either way...the match-ups above can provide a comparison in which if we just compare the statistics in each match-up post game...it can show where similar players from either team out played their counterpart. It is just a tool in which could bring some understanding (post game) as to where each team needed to step up in order to change the outcome of the game. I always like a man to man match-up game...but, Arkansas' guard oriented offense and Paige Buecker's current injury (should she play)...may dictate that UConn play more zone than man to man. Either way, I still see a 9-12 point victory for UConn.